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  • Weekend Wagers

    POSTED Sep 30, 2011 By Derek Simon
    (Click on image to enlarge)

    COMMENTS: This is the Tim “Tiznow” Reynolds Memorial. Please visit Thorofan’s Web site or the memorial page on Facebook to learn more about Reynolds and his family.

    BET(S): I’m going to sit this one out.

    GRAB YOUR FREE HANDICAPPING REPORTS VIA THE FOLLOWING LINK:

    http://valuewagering.wordpress.com/2011/09/29/free-handicapping-reports/




    (Click on image to enlarge)

    COMMENTS: Clearly, CAPE BLANCO is the one to beat. He's a plodder at a distance (12 furlongs) well suited to his long-winded pedigree and he figures to be near a tepid pace. That said, I think GRASSY offers the best value in the race. His last race — albeit against lesser — was fantastic, earning the five-year-old a 97 Brisnet speed figure (BSF) and a +7 late speed ration (LSR). MISSION APPROVED and WINCHESTER round out the primary contention in a short, but quality field.

    BET(S): WIN on 6 at odds of 9-2 or greater.



    (Click on image to enlarge)

    COMMENTS: It's put up or shut up time for UNCLE MO and I think he'll do the former. Frankly, this field is not that strong and “Mo” appears to be sitting on a big race.

    BET(S): WIN on 3 at odds of 1-1 or greater.



    (Click on image to enlarge)

    COMMENTS: HAVRE DE GRACE has a massive speed edge on this bunch and should get her preferred trip right off the early leader, which would appear to be Life At Ten. As far as the betting goes, my strategy will be to beat ROYAL DELTA, who, although talented, is almost sure to be overbet off of her scintillating score in the Grade I Alabama against sophomores. One horse to consider in the exacta is BANKER'S BUY. Yeah, she's just one of 10 outside of the state-bred ranks, but she does have a fair amount of early lick and decent late punch.

    BET(S): EXACTA 5-1 at odds of 10-1 or greater (optional). EXACTA 5-3 at odds of 10-1 or greater (optional). EXACTA 5-4 at odds of 11-1 or greater (optional).



    (Click on image to enlarge)

    COMMENTS: Race discussed on this week's TwinSpires Horse Racing Podcast.



    (Click on image to enlarge)

    COMMENTS: Even though SWEETONRICH handily defeated LOVELY LEEANN the last time they met, I'm partial to the latter on Saturday. Sure, the morning line odds play a part in my decision, but so too does the likely pace scenario this weekend (it figures to be much hotter up front) and the ten-pound weight switch.

    BET(S): WIN on 5 at odds of 7-2 or greater.



    (Click on image to enlarge)

    COMMENTS: I love MACK THE SLEW's last race (9/10) over this track, where he recorded an 89 BSF (today's par is 89) and -2 LSR.

    BET(S): WIN on 6 at odds of 9-5 or greater.



    (Click on image to enlarge)

    COMMENTS: This may be the easiest wagering decision I'll make all weekend. Not because I've unearthed the proverbial “sure thing” in this race, but rather because the morning line favorite has some knocks and figures to be a massive underlay. Yes, FREEDOM STAR is a Grade 3 winner and Grade 2-placed; granted, she's undefeated on dirt; true, she's trained by master conditioner Bob Baffert. But there's a lot of early speed in this race, which could force the probable favorite into the unenviable position of running faster out of the gate (in a race that literally starts on the turn) or trying to rate for the first time ever. And then there's TEXAS COUNTRY DOLL, a five-year-old mare that ran lights-out in her latest (101 BSF, 0 LSR).

    BET(S): WIN on 3 at odds of 7-2 or greater. SHOW on 3 if Freedom Star controls over 75% of the show pool.

    Derek Simon’s Free Selection Statistics

    Races (Selections): 52 (55)
    Wins: 19
    Rate: 36.5%
    Return: $142.10
    ROI: +29.18%

    (This year's published selections through 09/30/11.)

    Note: Play is restricted to any horse(s) that meet my fair odds requirements (when listed). Multiple qualifying contenders will be bet separately, however, multiple bets will be adjusted to equal a single wager and the payoffs averaged. For example a winning WIN/PLACE wager paying $6.20 on top and $4.30 underneath would count as a single bet paying $5.25 (the average of $6.20 and $4.30).
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Welcome to the TwinSpires Blog. Our contributors will be continually updating posts to offer commentary, insight, advice and expert opinions on horse racing and wagering. The goal is to help you win more and become a better all around horse player.

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Contributors

Derek Simon

TwinSpires' horse racing author, handicapper, and podcast host, Derek Simon of Denver, Colo. offers his insightful, humorous and sometimes controversial take on the horse racing industry. He even publishes the ROI on the picks he gives out.

Frank Cotolo

TwinSpires' harness racing expert, Frank Cotolo follows all of the big North American circuits throughout the year, providing the best value picks and latest news from the sulky.

Ed DeRosa

The Director of Marketing for Bloodstock Research Information Services (BRIS) and a lifelong Thoroughbred racing enthusiast and astute handicapper, Ed joined Churchill Downs Inc. following nine years as a writer and editor with Thoroughbred Times.

Peter Thomas Fornatale

A writer and editor who has been following horse racing for fifteen years. Peter has written books for the Daily Racing Form Press; Crown; and Simon and Schuster; among other publishers, and regular features in The Horseplayer Magazine.

Jill Byrne

A television racing analyst for Churchill Downs, Jill has earned acclaim and a loyal audience throughout Thoroughbred racing.

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