Derek Simon's Saturday Selections
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COMMENTS: As I mentioned on my podcast, I love 5-NEWBIE’s pace figures and think this race hits him squarely between the eyes (yes, I know, that sounds painful, but, trust me, it's a good thing).
BET(S): WIN on 5 at odds of 3-1 or greater.
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COMMENTS: This race is very intriguing to me, as I think it could offer a great return. 2-ONE TUFF STORM has faltered in each of his last two starts, but both came over very wet tracks. I expect him to bounce back over a dry surface today. 5-FIRST GUESS tops my Win Factor (computerized fair odds) line, but he’s unproven over a dirt surface. 9-VICE LORD ran great last time, earning a -3 late speed ration (LSR). ALABAMA CAY is a get it or spit it type that could go a long way on the front today (should he clear One Tuff Storm).
BET(S): WIN on 2 at odds of 8-1 or greater and/or WIN on 5 at odds of 6-1 or greater. Note — Although not an “official” bet, I would suggest that players use 7 on top in at least some of their exotic wagers… and really watch the tote board in this race. Look for value.
Derek Simon’s Free Selection Statistics
Races (Selections): 56 (62)
Wins: 22
Rate: 39.3%
Return: $156.60
ROI: +26.29%
(This year's published selections through 10/21/11.)
Note: Play is restricted to any horse(s) that meet my fair odds requirements (when listed). Multiple qualifying contenders will be bet separately, however, multiple bets will be adjusted to equal a single wager and the payoffs averaged. For example a winning WIN/PLACE wager paying $6.20 on top and $4.30 underneath would count as a single bet paying $5.25 (the average of $6.20 and $4.30).
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