• Handicapping & BC Notes

    POSTED Oct 20, 2011
    This week’s column is somewhat like the “Maury Show” — a lot of subjects, a lot of thoughtful opinions and a lot of serious analysis… come to think of it, this week's column is nothing like the “Maury Show.”

    However, I’m confident readers will be riveted by the content — despite the fact that no paternity tests are involved.

    Let’s kick off the festivities with a discussion of the upcoming Breeders’ Cup.

    Given that the BC races traditionally bring together the best of the best, it should come as no surprise that decent recent form is nearly as important to BC success as those two hydrogen atoms in H2O are to fish.

    Since 2003, horses with a Win Factor Method (WFM) Form Rating of less than 20 percent have won just once (Midnight Lute, 2008 Sprint) in 48 attempts, as the following table illustrates:




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    Last year, there were five horses that competed in various Breeders’ Cup races with a Form Rating south of 20 percent — none of them hit the board.



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    So, what does this mean for The Factor, who figures to be among the favorites in the BC Sprint despite finishing off the board in the Ancient Title at Santa Anita on Oct. 8? Well, luckily for his fans, The Factor earned a 28.1 percent Form Rating in that affair and, thus, doesn’t belong with the sorry group above.



    (Click on image to enlarge)

    State-Bred Stakes Highlight Weekend Action

    I’ve said it before, I’ll say it again: I love state-bred stakes races and/or special days dedicated to state-bred competition, which just so happens to be the case at both Belmont Park and Hawthorne this weekend. Below is a look at some of the races:





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    To get the full (free) Win Factor Reports for these and other cards, visit:

    http://valuewagering.wordpress.com/2011/10/20/free-weekend-handicapping-reports
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