• 2011 Breeders’ Cup

    POSTED Nov 2, 2011
    Well, the 2011 Breeders’ Cup has finally arrived. For race fans and bettors alike, it’s like Christmas come early, as we all dream of the gifts we hope to find flashing on the Churchill Downs tote board this weekend. After days and even weeks of planning, it is time to put our best laid pari-mutuel plans into action… and hope they don’t go astray.

    To aid my fellow players in this noble quest, I have looked at all the BC races and offer the following observations:

    Vulnerable Favorites / Underlays

    Exclusive Kate (2/1 on the morning line in the Juvenile Fillies Turf): From a speed figure standpoint, she towers over the field… and therein lies the problem. Over the past eight years, horses possessing the highest last-race TrackMaster® speed rating — by five points or more — are an abysmal 1-for-15 in Breeders’ Cup competition. Worse, the sole winner, Ouija Board, paid $3.80 in the 2004 Filly & Mare Turf.

    Turbulent Descent (6/5, Filly & Mare Sprint): I know many will be singling this daughter of Congrats in their multi-race wagers… I won’t be one of them. Look, I know she’s talented (three Grade I wins); I know she loves this distance (a perfect three-for-three); and, not surprisingly, she tops my Win Factor (computerized fair odds) line. But two things stand out to me: 1) The late speed ration (LSR) par for this race is a -7, a figure that Turbulent Descent hasn’t matched since she captured the Santa Anita Oaks back in March; and 2) The Mike Puype-trained filly hasn’t raced since Aug. 6. Throw in that skimpy morning line and it's strike three, Turbulent Descent is out.

    Majestic City (4/1, Juvenile Turf): Horses switching from an all-weather or dirt surface to grass are a combined 1-for-37 in the Breeders’ Cup since 2003. What’s more, the lone winner, Tapitsfly (2009 Juvenile Fillies Turf), recorded a very solid -6 LSR in her final prep, despite racing at Belmont Park over the dirt, a surface that generally produces the worst LSRs. Contrast that with Majestic City, whose best figure is a -9, recorded twice over all-weather surfaces at Keeneland and Del Mar.

    Trappe Shot (3/1, Dirt Mile): I hesitate putting this guy on the list because he is very, very talented. That said, I fear he’s going to be overbet.

    Goldikova (7/5, Mile): Like Trappe Shot, my concern with Goldikova has nothing to do with talent; it has everything to do with price. She dominates my Win Factor line, yet has fair odds of “only” 5/2 — a far cry from her 7/5 morning line, which I could easily see going lower on race day.

    Uncle Mo (5/2, Classic): I think he’s the best horse in the field, but what he’s being asked to do… well, it’s just not done. Horses, like people, need to train to reach their full athletic potential — even when that potential is as great as Mo’s. Mike Repole’s stable star simply doesn’t have the requisite experience and conditioning. If he wins the Classic, the Horse of the Year trophy should be presented in the winner’s circle… no need to wait for the Eclipse voting.

    Live Longshots / Overlays

    Dear Lavinia (30/1, Juvenile Fillies Turf): Finished third, beaten a mere 1 ½ lengths by Elusive Kate in France, yet she’s 30/1 on the morning line while the latter is the 2-1 choice.

    Ultra Blend (8/1, Ladies Classic): She’s got the best overall LSRs in the field, competitive speed figures and she’s 6-1 fair odds on my Win Factor line; a lot to like for a horse that’s 8/1 on the morning line.

    Great Attack (20/1, Turf Sprint): I absolutely love the son of Greatness in this spot. He’s got great (hey, it’s a theme) early speed, deceptively good form and a trainer who’s no slouch with turf sprinters.

    Brilliant Speed (20/1, Turf): Sarafina looks tough to beat, but this colt has been recording some monster LSRs, albeit aided by slug-slow early splits.

    Special Breeders’ Cup Podcast

    This week’s podcast will be live a day earlier than usual to accommodate the Breeders’ Cup schedule (I know, I know, it should be the other way around).

    Join me as I discuss all the BC goings-on: free picks, astute analysis, laughs, tears… and that’s all in the first two minutes. The live broadcast is scheduled for 10am Pacific / 1pm Eastern on Thursday, Nov. 3.

    As a special bonus for listeners who purchase my 2011 Breeders’ Cup Betting Guide (see below), I will also detail a simple BC betting system (using my Win Factor Report) that has produced a 139 percent ROI since 2003.

    Breeders’ Cup Wagering Guide

    My 2011 Breeders’ Cup Betting Guide is now available for purchase. In it, I offer early analysis of all 15 Breeders’ Cup events, as well as information on past trends, tons of stats and more.

    Purchasers of “Derek Simon’s 2011 Breeders’ Cup Betting Guide” will also receive links to my Win Factor Reports and Pace Profile Reports for all the BC races.

    Get your copy today… or tomorrow… or even on Saturday — just be sure to get it!

    Click HERE to order your copy (please write me with any questions or contact me via Facebook).

    Weekend Wagers

    (Click on image to enlarge)

    COMMENTS: As I mentioned above, I really like 5-GREAT ATTACK in this spot. The Turf Sprint has typically stressed early speed and, as one can see above, Wesley Ward’s protégé has the best overall early speed rations (ESRs) in the field.

    BET(S): WIN & PLACE on 5 at odds of 10-1 or greater.

    Derek Simon’s Free Selection Statistics

    Races (Selections): 58 (64)
    Wins: 22
    Rate: 37.9%
    Return: $156.60
    ROI: +22.34%

    (This year's published selections through 11/01/11.)

    Note: Play is restricted to any horse(s) that meet my fair odds requirements (when listed). Multiple qualifying contenders will be bet separately, however, multiple bets will be adjusted to equal a single wager and the payoffs averaged. For example a winning WIN/PLACE wager paying $6.20 on top and $4.30 underneath would count as a single bet paying $5.25 (the average of $6.20 and $4.30).
  • No comments:

    Post a Comment