Rapid Redux Goes For 22
Will his luck end today? Well, as always, much depends on the early pace.
In his entire 41-race career, Rapid Redux has triumphed just once after trailing at the half-mile call — that was in a 5 ½-furlong dash on May 29, 2010 and the son of Pleasantly Perfect was second by a mere head at the half that day.
If Rapid Redux is to be beaten today, I expect it will be due to the efforts of trainer John Rigattieri, who has a strong entry in the form of Awesome Rhythm, who was a half-length short of ending Rapid Redux’s streak on Dec. 13, and Ninth Client, a hard-trying sort that has been competing in the allowance ranks.
Here’s the key: In his last three races, Rapid Redux has averaged a moderate -5 early speed ration (ESR); Ninth Client recorded a -7 ESR in his latest start (the lower the figure, the relatively faster the pace). So, if Rigattieri sends Ninth Client, I think the race is wide open. If he doesn’t, or if Ninth Client is scratched — late scratches have been an unfortunate highlight of Rapid Redux’s recent starts — it’s likely coronation time.
In any event, it’s almost always worth playing against confirmed frontrunners in negative show pools, which I’m sure Rapid Redux will generate.
COMMENTS: My Win Factor Report makes RAPID REDUX a Prime Overlay possibility at odds of 2-5 or greater, but I’d be inclined to seek value in the exotics (if the entry fails to finish second, I think the exacta payoffs will be decent even if Rapid Redux wins at 1-9). GRUNWALD, who rates second on my report, does have the right style to pick up the pieces late, although his late speed rations (LSRs) are weak.
BET(S): SHOW on 1 & 4. Also consider exactas on 3-4 (at fair odds of 5-1 or greater) and 3-1/1A (at fair odds of 4-1 or greater).