• Revisiting William L. Scott

    POSTED Jan 12, 2012
    One of the best, most thought-provoking books on handicapping I ever read was “Investing at the Racetrack” by the late William L. Scott (real name Joe Finley).

    Published in 1981, “Investing at the Racetrack” is based on the simple premise that, via the application of logic and sound money management principles, one can turn the gamble of horse racing into a legitimate investment opportunity.

    “You can make money in the stock market, they say, but playing the horses leads to a certainty of losses as truly inevitable as death and taxes,” Scott noted. “But if, buried in the myths that surround the racetrack, there is indeed a method of putting money on horses that will produce a steady, consistent profit, that would be investing wouldn’t it?”

    Obviously, Finley penned all this before Enron, the dot-com implosion or the demise of Lehman Brothers. Had he foreseen those tragedies, perhaps he would not have used Wall Street as a stellar example of sound wealth accumulation practices. Nonetheless, two key aspects of Finley’s method intrigued me:

    1) Its theoretical underpinnings were that one of the top three betting choices won approximately 2/3 of all thoroughbred races — a ratio that still holds true today (and, in fact, may be growing).

    2) “Investments” were based on a horse’s Ability Times, unique pace ratings that didn’t rely on total speed, class or other common handicapping factors.

    I would be remiss if I failed to point out that Finley’s overall selection process, as detailed in “Investing at the Racetrack,” did not work when I gave it a trial run at Longacres as a youth. Part of the reason for this was undoubtedly due to the fact that the Renton oval always seemed to produce a rate of winning favorites well below the national average (typically around 26 percent, if memory serves).

    Still, the idea of building a methodology around a verifiable fact — mainly, the pari-mutuel prowess of the top three betting choices — made sense to me, especially since so many other handicapping books I’d read up to that point had presented only theories (oh, how little times have changed).

    So, this week, I thought I would take a crack at modifying Scott’s method for the new millennium. Here’s how it will work:

    Ability

    Scott advocated finding the best two Ability Times a horse had recorded and assigned them points. We’ll do something similar, except that we’ll use my speed rations instead of computing Ability Times and we’ll confine our search to a horse’s last three races run within the past 90 days over today’s general surface (turf or dirt/synthetic).

    Then, we’ll determine Ability by subtracting a horse’s early speed ration (ESR) from its late speed ration (LSR) — the higher the number, the better.

    Form

    Instead of using Scott’s rather cumbersome form rules, we’ll keep it simple: To qualify on form a horse must have finished in the money (third or better) last time or been beaten by less than 10 lengths (within the past 90 days). If the horse did not race in the past 90 days, it can still qualify on form if it shows at least three workouts — at least one of which was five furlongs or greater — within the past month.

    The Unknown-Ability Horse

    When a horse whose Ability (see above) is unknown is an odds-on favorite, pass the race or play the odds-on choice to place.

    Use of One Race

    If one of the first three favorites has but one race on which his ability is based, while the other horses have two, then rate all three off their best overall race (this is explained above).

    Ties

    Play the horse with the best combined speed figures from its rated race(s).

    Betting

    Wager to win and place on the top-rated contender provided he/she is among the top three betting favorites (see exception for unknown ability above).

    Now, let’s take a look at the method in action. Below is a look at all nine races from Aqueduct on Friday, January 13, 2012. In the interest of space, I considered only the top 3-5 morning line favorites in each race. However, those interested in analyzing more entrants can click HERE to download a free copy of my Pace Profile Report for the “Big A.”




    (Click on image to enlarge)




    (Click on image to enlarge)




    (Click on image to enlarge)
  • 51 comments:

    navin lamervich said...

    where do you get the SR from?
    I assume that by SR you mean speed rating. how do you arrive at that..from averaging out speed ratings in the daily racing form?

    Mary Elbert said...

    Text API are great for connecting your system with a texting service provider. After integration, you can send out thousands of messages to your growing audience informing them of your promotions or simply sending notifications and alerts.

    Anonymous said...

    Electronic sends are the most effortless approach to send and get your messages and connections in a brief period to a vast number. Endeavor to know the significance of get this bestessays.com team site and attempt to encourage yourself from it.

    Becky Spencer said...

    Wow that's cool blog post i like to see this all and appreciate it also you can share this post with your customers from Mass Texting service this is the best way to promote it just go there and sign up and get 125 free messages for testing so try it do not miss it!

    paul thomas said...

    This is a nice blog. I really appreciate such types of posts.If you have any issues regarding Norton,please visit Norton Setup

    Taylor Bara said...

    Here https://assignment-helpers.com/cheap-assignment-help you would get a cheap assignment writing help. My friend works there

    Kajal Agarwal said...

    mcafee antivirus is broadly utilized antivirus identifies and kill PC infection, the mail worms,the trojan programs,and additionally enables your framework to free of infection and other malware is a significant every day challenge. for more subtleties visit: mcafee 25 digit activation code today.

    Kajal Agarwal said...

    Download and introduce norton com setup Sign In to Norton. On the off chance that you don't have a Norton account, click Create an Account and complete the sign up procedure. In the Get Started window, click Enter a New Product Key. To take a crack at Automatic Renewal Service for your Norton membership.

    Kajal Agarwal said...

    office setup, Vonage can help you find the right system to fit your needs & budget. We'll get you started quickly on setting up an office. Visit activate office on this computer for more updates.

    Kajal Agarwal said...

    To activate Hulu Plus on your device, either use the on-screen keyboard to enter your Hulu log in information or go to enter activation code for hulu and enter the device activation code. Either of these methods will allow you to use Hulu on any Hulu-supported device.

    Kajal Agarwal said...

    Real-time problems and outages for Office 365. Is the service down? Can't login or connect? Here you see what is going on. for more details visit activate office today.

    Kajal Agarwal said...

    With mcafee enter product key code , you can prevent devices and network against threats like malware, worms, spyware and runs in the background and does not cause any problem nor slows down the computer.

    cordydaymen said...

    Quickbooks support is a tech help assistance provider for the issues in quickbooks like installation error, setup fails, login id fails, etc and in order to fix them you need to contact quickbooks support and they will provide you quickbooks customer support number and from there you will get Quickbooks support

    harrymosan said...

    Quickbooks provided best accounting features for creating or managing your accounts details and records online and with Quickbooks cloud services you can operate your software from anywhere in the world & so it is used by most businessmen and professionals and in case you face any issue in the accounting process just contact Quickbooks support and ask them for Quickbooks contact number

    fillcol said...

    if you are facing any kind of error while using Mcafee security then you can simply visit our website where we cover all-most each and every error in details, also you can get help from our technical assistant. we are 24*7 available for our users. ansd you can get Mcafee activate product key

    Rocky Mosan said...

    QuickBooks Install Diagnostic Tool is an efficient tool that you can make use of to diagnose and rightly trouble any kind of QuickBooks installation errors.

    Nick Mosan said...

    .If any kind of bugs has been interfering the QuickBooks Desktop experience then the QuickBooks tool hub can be used to rescue out of it.

    James Cary said...

    Antiviruses are most important in every computer system to work upon. In this direction, Norton setup is one of the best antivirus software in the world and now is in use for you to protect your system. This not only protects you from various viruses but also makes you aware about the situations of your computer.

    RachelJones said...

    The issues identified in a Roku.com/link device are temporary and really simple to correct them. For starters, try restarting your Roku by heading to the Settings menu and choosing the Restart option located under the System menu. Try updating your Roku.com/link
    Roku.com/link create accountsoftware if it’s outdated. If you’re facing audio latency issues, you can try adjusting the cables or head to the Audio settings and manually adjust them.

    mrweb said...

    If any kind of bugs has been interfering the QuickBooks Desktop experience then the Download QuickBooks Tool Hub

    Link Roku Activation said...

    we're a teamof experts that can help your to solve your Roku related issues instantly such as Roku Com link, Roku Enter Link Code, Roku error Code 014 and etc. Just talk to our experts to solve your queries. Get in touch with us .

    Quickbooks error said...

    QB update errors are the errors that may occur while downloading updates or latest upgrades.
    these Errors can prevent Quickbooks to be upgraded and installing new features of Quickbooks.

    Daniel Lisa said...

    When you are using Quickbooks on daily basis you wouldn't want your Quickbooks to not respond all of a sudden, right? In order to stay updated on what's happening and how to rectify it, head on to Quickbooks Error support
    .

    Jack Davis said...

    quickbooks is the accounting software helps to simplyfy the accounting process and make it so reliable and userfriendly.if you are having any issue regarding quickbooks tool hub do check out the link

    Danny Ethan said...
    This comment has been removed by the author.
    Danny Ethan said...

    QuickBooks Tool Hub , an online accounting based software for managing the financial needs of the business. It helps to perform the book-keeping, professional invoice preparation with perfection.
    It has the customer support number for the assistant in case of fixing bugs and issues.QuickBooks Tool Hub is the all in one accounting tool to cater the accounting needs of the company.

    index of money heist said...

    Turn on real-time protection by going through the steps given for downloading, installing and activating norton product.

    Quickbooks said...

    Quickbooks 6130 error is an example of a technical error. If there is an issue with the company file, Quickbooks 6130 error appears. The error is mostly caused by two factors. The following are the details: When the QuickBooks Desktop file is corrupted, the user will get this error.

    Anonymous said...

    Quickbooks direct deposits forms is the best software for accounting and bookkeeping. Quickbooks provides the you with features to direct deposits to pay your employees.

    TopTechKnowledge said...

    Norton Security may be a multi-device and multi-OS protection software from Symantec. It offers real-time defense against viruses, malware, spyware, and other cyber threats. it's especially advanced security algorithms to safeguard users’ private and financial information once they buy and sell online.
    If you want to download this antivirus, you can visit norton.com setup

    Elinagilbert_77 said...

    Script errors are usually related to Internet Explorer, and by default QuickBooks uses Internet Explorer settings to connect to the Internet. If JavaScript or VBScript is not installed correctly, or if there are several reasons why IE cannot run these scripting languages, QuickBooks Desktop will display a script error and the "QuickBooksScriptError" error message will be "Property whitespace reference not defined".you can visit for the solutionquickbooks script error

    Jack Mosan said...

    QuickBooks is an feature rich program that altogether affects the bookkeeping business. This program has without any help facilitated the entirety of the monetary requirements of enterprises around the world. Clients might deal with issues and troubles while interfacing with these tools and functions. These issues and troubles hinder QuickBooks' preparing. This is the place where the quickbooks file doctor can help. The QBFD instrument is the final product of your chase for an extraordinary device to fix successive errors. Numerous QB clients are new to this instrument.

    Quickbooks error code said...

    This error is a severity error that indicates the application has experienced a critical failure. Error messages of this nature usually arise when QuickBooks users attempt to print, save, or ship transactions through the icon at the top. Users of QuickBooks are greatly frustrated and annoyed by quickbooks unrecoverable error

    Lily said...

    you very well explained the topic For providing the important and Knowledgeablequickbooks file repairRepair File in QUickbooks Quickly It has explained in a good way how to repair it so that it can be repaired by looking at it.

    Vedic Astrologer said...

    आपके द्वारा किए गया यह प्रयास अच्छा है और आपके अन्य लेखों को पढ़ने का इंतजार करुंगा। तब तक यदि आप जन्म कुंडली के द्वारा अपनी फ्री जन्म कुंडली भी बना सकते हैं।

    Nick mosan said...

    Quickbooks error 15106 is usually noticed when the QuickBooks programming has to be refreshed. It also shows that the update program has been tampered with. This is a finance update error that can cause you problems while you're out and about. This is a problem that many users face: Error 15106 when updating Quickbooks.This is a problem with the payroll update. This mistake is a variant of Quickbooks error 15106 that can be readily fixed using a variety of tools and approaches.

    123bet said...

    very interesting site A very good comment is a post that will come in handy. ร้านติดฟิล์มรถยนต์

    Daniel Lisa said...

    QuickBooks payroll is an easy-to-use module that comes with the accounting software and includes a variety of other useful features. However, QuickBooks payroll encounters some errors, one of which is quickbooks error ps033
    , which is typically caused by a damaged file in the CPS folder.

    Jack Mosan said...

    Your blog is interesting and useful and you can see our website related to
    quickbooks error code 6175 0 and in this website Quickbooks is a software solution that assists clients with managing their exchange and storing records.

    Axpert Advisors said...


    That is an uncommon idea you have, and yes this would use the information you have given us through this blog. I will grant your contemplation to all of my sidekicks.

    QuickBooks Error 6150 | QuickBooks installation | versions of QuickBooks desktop are supported on windows 10

    nick said...

    quickbooks connection diagnostic tool can diagnose and resolve different accounting software problems. When you access your company file in QuickBooks, you can use the QuickBooks Connection Diagnostic Tool to fix common connection errors.

    chiyo said...

    It could also be caused by a corrupted Windows registry due to any changes made to the registry, like installing or removing QuickBooks error 404.

    Jack Mosan said...

    Nice article Quickbooks is a accounting software for tax related services,accounts filling,spreadsheets and many more but some users like cloning activities for performing better and found some uncommon error name as quickbooks license error due to which all there Quickbooks products get frozen but it can be resolve also so you can go through and check it to resolve.

    William acker said...

    quickbooks install diagnostic tool comes up with an updated version every year with more bug fixes and improved tools to help its users in all ways.

    MTB-Bikes said...


    why are mountain bikes so expensive

    replique montre homme said...

    Looking for Rolex watches? You have come to the right place, we are always at your service and provide vertrauenswürdige replica uhren of various brands.

    bokep indo terbaru said...

    Your blog is very useful for me who is going through puberty, thank you

    billy nomates glastonbury said...

    Exactly what I needed to read today.

    vidio bokep said...

    Great, this blog is very good, I will come back to look at it again

    Ryan hugh said...

    The reference to "Revisiting William L. Scott" may refer to a historical figure, legal case, or specific event in fields like law, politics, or civil rights, and further exploration is welcome Reasons for Divorce in New York State.

    wicked spoon said...

    Everything was perfect!

    Post a Comment