TwinSpires.com Blog

  • The Science of Betting

    POSTED Aug 30, 2012 By Derek Simon
    Originally, I’d planned on discussing a variety of racetrack issues in this week’s column — Dullahan’s surprise (at least to me) victory in the Pacific Classic, hopes that Frankel may travel to Paris, etc.

    But some comments on a couple of recent TwinSpires blog pieces have caused me to change my mind.

    Regarding a piece written by Ed DeRosa entitled “TwinSpires.com bettor plays name game to scoop Pick 6 at Del Mar” that — surprise, surprise — details how a TwinSpires account-holder made over $500K by hitting last Thursday’s pick-six as well as a few other multi-race wagers at Del Mar by keying on certain names, an anonymous poster had this to say:

    “Betting on horses is ridiculous. It's honestly the dumbest thing you can do. You might as well go play ‘War’ in the casino.”

    Later, Old School explained why betting on horses is ridiculous:

    “This is just another example of the true odds one faces wagering on horses. An industry that loves the [shadows] and refuses to punish lawbreakers creates results that can only be hit this way…

    “Give the government their 60% cut and learn to play poker. It will last longer.”

    Added to this, were comments I received from a guy named Kyle on my piece “Fit vs. Fragile.” Among other things, Kyle thought I was dead wrong about the effect of takeout and the importance of one’s winning percentage as it pertains to ROI:

    “The more bet collectively on a set of winners the lower the return; the less, the higher. How often horses of either set win is beside the point,” he explained.

    “Yes, takeout is not currently tied to field size. It should be. But racing does work that way — field size overcomes take at a certain point. You admit that (I didn’t and don’t). You just don't believe it, I guess.”

    Kyle then challenged me to a handicapping/wagering contest to, as he put it, “show you how much more knowledgeable I am than you.”

    Now, to be fair, I’ve since communicated with Kyle and he apologized “if he came off arrogant” (I did likewise). However, I still disagree with certain aspects of his approach — mainly, his dismissal of win percentage and what I consider to be his over-emphasis on field size (although, curiously, Kyle told me on my latest podcast that he does not pay attention to field size when he bets).

    I also took him up on his challenge. Each of us will start with a $1,000 bankroll — mythical for Kyle, real for me — and we will make bets up to and possibly including the Breeders’ Cup.

    I did this for two reasons:
    1) I want to show that the races can be and are beaten — in a myriad of ways. Frankly, although I certainly want to beat Kyle in our little head-to-head showdown, I also want him to show a nice profit — using techniques that are surely different from my own.

    2) It is my hope that this demonstration will help generate more interest and understanding of the wagering side of the game. Toward that end, I will periodically list some of my proposed plays. I won’t be doing this all the time, mind you — because I am betting real money, I want/need to concentrate on what I’m doing and not be sidetracked by social media stuff — but I’ll shoot for a post or two a week. (Kyle, on the other hand, doesn’t have my time management issues and has graciously allowed me to post his plays on my Facebook page.) 
    While Kyle has already started betting in earnest, I still want to finish a few database tests before I start officially, hopefully in early September. In the meantime, however, I’ll make a few action bets... just to keep things interesting.

    Below are my plays for Thursday, Aug. 30 (ignore races carded for turf that come off the green):

    2nd Canterbury Park (turf): $15 to win on 3-Love Makor.
    5th Del Mar (turf): $15 to win on 9-Marlenadarlena.
    7th Finger Lakes: Conditional $15 to win on 6-Say Mr. Sandman (at least 7-5 odds with 0 MTP).
    3rd Hoosier Park: Conditional $15 to win on 6-Our Blushing Rose (3-5, 0 MTP).
    7th River Downs: Conditional $15 to win on 8-Louimpressme (6-5, 0 MTP).
    10th Saratoga (turf): $15 to win on 10-Notacatbutallama.

    Check back for other plays this weekend.
    • betting
    • Derek Simon
    • Dullahan
    • Ed DeRosa
    • Frankel
    • gambling
    • handicapping
    • horse racing
    • horseracing
    • Kentucky Derby
    • money management
    • poker
    • racing podcast
    • racing show
    • science of betting
    • twinspires
  • 443 comments:

    1 – 200 of 443   Newer›   Newest»
    Bill said...

    Just how 'knowledgeable' can Kyle be when he doesn't even have $1000 to back up his big mouth?

    And what a surprise that he has no problem managing his time - he must be Occupying Something.

    #whatadouche

    August 30, 2012 at 12:08 PM
    Derek Simon said...

    I've got to defend Kyle on this one. The mythical $1,000 bankroll was my idea simply because I planned on starting with that and doing the screen shot thing anyway once I was finished with the betting program I've been working on.

    Kyle may or may not be betting with that much -- or more -- in an actual account or on-track somewhere.

    August 30, 2012 at 3:19 PM
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Welcome to the TwinSpires Blog. Our contributors will be continually updating posts to offer commentary, insight, advice and expert opinions on horse racing and wagering. The goal is to help you win more and become a better all around horse player.

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Contributors

Derek Simon

TwinSpires' horse racing author, handicapper, and podcast host, Derek Simon of Denver, Colo. offers his insightful, humorous and sometimes controversial take on the horse racing industry. He even publishes the ROI on the picks he gives out.

Frank Cotolo

TwinSpires' harness racing expert, Frank Cotolo follows all of the big North American circuits throughout the year, providing the best value picks and latest news from the sulky.

Ed DeRosa

The Director of Marketing for Bloodstock Research Information Services (BRIS) and a lifelong Thoroughbred racing enthusiast and astute handicapper, Ed joined Churchill Downs Inc. following nine years as a writer and editor with Thoroughbred Times.

Peter Thomas Fornatale

A writer and editor who has been following horse racing for fifteen years. Peter has written books for the Daily Racing Form Press; Crown; and Simon and Schuster; among other publishers, and regular features in The Horseplayer Magazine.

Jill Byrne

A television racing analyst for Churchill Downs, Jill has earned acclaim and a loyal audience throughout Thoroughbred racing.

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