A Kentucky Derby Best Bet
For
many moons, I have talked about how potent horses with improving late speed
rations (my own pace
figures measuring late energy disbursement) are in the Kentucky Derby.
Unfortunately, after several years with at least one qualifying animal
(2000-2007), the plays dried up. Since 2008, only Chocolate Candy and Hansen
showed the requisite improvement — and both of them raced over synthetic
surfaces, casting doubt on the numbers.
Hansen’s
“improvement,” in particular, was almost surely the result of his switching
from dirt to Polytrack for his final prep in the Blue Grass Stakes on April 14,
2012. Although the white colt with the blue tail (thank heavens that sideshow
is a thing of the past) recorded a -4 late speed ration at Keeneland that day,
LSRs recorded on turf and synthetic surfaces are typically 5-7 points lower
than those recorded on dirt. Hence, the -7 figure that Hansen earned in the
Gotham six weeks earlier was probably better than his (likely inflated) Blue
Grass number.
I’ve
got some exciting news, though: There is
a legitimate improving-LSR contender in this year’s Run for the Roses. Before I
reveal who it is, however, some history is in order…
When a great scientific breakthrough is achieved, it is often referred to as a “Eureka Moment.” Supposedly, this dates back to Archimedes, who, while attempting to determine whether or not King Hiero II’s new laurel-shaped crown was solid gold or a combination of lesser metals, drew a bath and made a startling discovery.
Eureka! The Key to Derby Success Has Been Found
When a great scientific breakthrough is achieved, it is often referred to as a “Eureka Moment.” Supposedly, this dates back to Archimedes, who, while attempting to determine whether or not King Hiero II’s new laurel-shaped crown was solid gold or a combination of lesser metals, drew a bath and made a startling discovery.
The
famous Greek mathematician, engineer, physicist, inventor and singer/songwriter
(sure, why not?) found he could determine the density of the crown — without
destroying it — simply by noting how much water it displaced.
Overcome
with joy and excitement, Archimedes, sans clothing, took to the streets,
yelling, “Eureka! I have found it!”
I
wasn’t naked — nor did I feel compelled to jog — when I had my Eureka Moment on
May 7, 2005, but I certainly did my share of screaming. Earlier, you see, while
formulating my wagers for the 131st Kentucky Derby, I had unearthed
an amazing statistic.
I
had observed that, in the two decades prior to the first Saturday in May of
2005, eight winners of the Run for the Roses had shown improving late speed
rations, or LSRs, in their final two Kentucky Derby preps. In addition, these
Derby champs often paid hefty prices — like the $51.00 that Thunder Gulch
offered his backers in 1995 or the $64.60 that Charismatic returned in 1999.
There
were two Derby entrants that showed improving LSRs in 2005: Buzzards Bay and
Giacomo. I settled on the latter, as his overall form looked best and he had
established his class as a two-year-old when he was runner-up in the Grade I
Hollywood Futurity.
And, like Archimedes before me, I felt the exhilaration of success, as Giacomo flew by the leaders en route to a half-length score in Louisville that year (I’m sure my shouts of encouragement helped spur him on). True, I didn’t receive the undying gratitude of a king or everlasting fame for my Eureka Moment, but I did collect a $102.60 mutuel.
And, like Archimedes before me, I felt the exhilaration of success, as Giacomo flew by the leaders en route to a half-length score in Louisville that year (I’m sure my shouts of encouragement helped spur him on). True, I didn’t receive the undying gratitude of a king or everlasting fame for my Eureka Moment, but I did collect a $102.60 mutuel.
It
was more than enough.
Since
then, no horse with improving LSRs has experienced Derby glory, although Hard
Spun and Curlin completed the trifecta behind Street Sense in 2007.
Nonetheless, it is an angle worth looking out for, as I’m sure it will pay off
again before long.
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2) All horse’s last three races must’ve been contested over a route of ground (mile or greater) within the past 120 days and at least two of those races must’ve been graded stakes.
And the potential (fingers crossed) 2013 qualifier…
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Verrazano fits the profile of the kind of runner we’re looking for in every respect and, in fact, has improved his LSR each time he’s run. The son of More Than Ready followed up a -13 LSR in his career debut, with a -5 in his second race, a -4 in his third start and, finally, a +1 figure in his final prep, the Grade I Wood Memorial.
He’s going to have to overcome the dreaded Curse
of Apollo (see below), of course, but I’m very impressed with the way Todd
Pletcher has handled this guy. I’ve been critical of what I’ve felt was
Pletcher’s one-size-fits-all approach in the past, but, this year, the veteran
conditioner appears to have abandoned that strategy and I think — regardless of
what happens in Louisville on the first Saturday in May — his stock will be the
better for it. (Has any trainer been hotter on the 2013 Triple Crown trail than
Pletcher?)
Eureka!
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The Curse of Apollo
No horse since Apollo in 1882 has won the
Kentucky Derby without having raced as a two-year-old. Below is a look at the
Derby entrants that were unraced at two — and how they fared in Louisville — since
1937:
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3 comments:
You gave us the chalk! :)
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