Showing posts with label verrazano. Show all posts
Showing posts with label verrazano. Show all posts

  • The Travers Stakes 'Conspiracy'

    POSTED Aug 23, 2013 By Derek Simon
    I’m not one for conspiracy theories.

    Despite the recent CIA admission that Area 51 does, indeed, exist, I don’t believe that little green guys from a distant planet are playing an extraterrestrial version of “Punk’d” on the citizens — all 57 of ‘em — of Rachel, Nev.

    Likewise, I don’t believe that the Moon Landing was an elaborate hoax or that Elvis Presley hasn’t left the building.

    But I’m concerned about Saturday’s Travers Stakes.

    In what way, you ask? Have I received word that Tupac Shakur will be listed as a late rider change, replacing Joel Rosario aboard Orb? Am I privy to inside information on Moreno?

    Of course not.

    We all know that even Tupac’s hologram is too heavy to ride Orb and that trainer Eric Guillot would never pass on secret information regarding his stable star — he’s already made his thoughts on Moreno public… over and over again.

    No, my suspicions have to do with the tactics of two primary contenders in Saturday’s Saratoga feature and the unintended consequences of an oft-dissed and dismissed racing rule.

    You see, back in the early days of racing, the powers that be realized that horses owned and/or trained by the same individual(s) presented a dilemma to the betting public: mainly, that one or more of those entrants would be in the race strictly to benefit one of the others.

    For example, everybody with functioning gray cells knows that Hedevar was not entered to win the 1967 Woodward Stakes or the 1968 Brooklyn Handicap. Trainer Frank Whitely, Jr. entered Hedevar in those races for one reason and one reason only: to run Dr. Fager off his feet and set the table for Damascus, Whitely’s 1967 Horse of the Year.

    However, since both Hedevar and Damascus were coupled in the wagering, i.e. they ran as a single betting interest, it really didn’t matter what Hedevar did — unless you were a fan of Dr. Fager, of course (sportsmanship is not the issue I’m tackling here).
    Over the years, as field sizes waned and the public’s appetite for more betting choices increased, the rules governing coupled entries have been greatly relaxed. Today it is not uncommon to see horses owned by the same connections listed as separate betting interests.


    For the most part, these relaxed rules have not posed a problem… but Saturday’s Travers Stakes is different.



    In the Travers, two of the main contenders, both trained by Todd Pletcher, have similar running styles and what they decide to do, tactically, could literally spell the difference between victory and defeat — for one or both of them.

    Of course, I’m talking about Verrazano, the 2-1 morning line favorite in the Travers, and Palace Malice, the 5-2 second choice.



    NOTE: Click HERE for a free sample report that explains what the data above means.

    Both horses like to be on or near the pace and, while I was not overly impressed with Verrazano’s latest score in the Haskell (I thought the -6 late speed ration was a little weak), I do think that his success — or lack thereof — hinges on what his stablemate elects to do.

    Simply put, Palace Malice is incredibly versatile. He won the Belmont after recording a ridiculously fast -11 early speed ration and, then, rated beautifully in the Jim Dandy while earning a 0 ESR.

    When one considers that both Verrazano and Moreno prefer a slow and steady pace — Guillot has publicly admitted this (I told you earlier the guy likes to talk) — I think “Palace” should press the early issue. In effect, do to Moreno and Verrazano what Hedevar did to Dr. Fager nearly 40 years ago — run them off their feet.

    The question is: Will he? Will Pletcher allow one of his entries to compromise the chances of the other? Or will he play it safe and send neither horse to the lead.

    Guillot paints a picture of what could happen should the latter transpire.

    "I would imagine Todd wouldn't be pressing his own horse with Palace Malice and Verrazano together; that wouldn't make much sense," he told The Bloodhorse. "So, somebody's going to push me, and, hopefully, they push me so far up front, or push me to the point where the other one can't catch up. That would be the best-case scenario."

    This is why the coupling rules were initially put in place… and why I’m concerned about the Travers Stakes.

    Biggie vs. Tupac

    On this week’s “Simon Says” podcast for TwinSpires.com, I had an interesting discussion with Ed DeRosa about the so-called East Coast Bias.


    Knowing that my colleague was born in Ohio — he recently went back and his city was gone (sorry, I couldn’t help myself) — I naturally assumed that Ed would vehemently disagree with my assertion that the East Coast Bias in racing is alive and well.

    Much to my surprise, Ed agreed with me.

    “There’s an East Coast Bias,” he stated, adding, “By and large, I sorta agree with your point that the onus to ship east is completely unfair when many of these horses — champions — don’t ship west either.”

    I think the following table, which lists the last 10 Horse of the Year winners illustrates the point quite nicely:

    (Click on image to enlarge)


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  • The case for Orb to win the Travers Stakes

    POSTED By Unknown
    The Travers Stakes is one of those races where there is an onus to have A PICK.

     When someone asks you, "Who is going to win the Grade 1, $1-million Travers Stakes on Saturday at historic Saratoga Race Course?" The convention is that you have a one-horse answer. I.e. hedging for value or pace or other bet types (e.g. "I'm playing an exacta with...") is not allowed.

     So here it is. My pick to win the Grade 1, $1-million Travers Stakes--a race for three-year-olds going 1 1/4 miles on dirt on Saturday at Saratoga Race Course is...

    There are plenty of reasons not to like Orb: The Preakness was dreadful, and he flattened in the Belmont before an 11-week break into this. That'd be enough to pass at even money, but I'm hoping for 4-to-1 against a competitive group. His Kentucky Derby remains among the fastest race of the year, and while it'd be easy to assess that to track condition and pace (both factors, yes), neither of those things were in play when he romped in the Florida Derby over eventual Preakness runner-up Itsmyluckyday.

    The other thing I like about Orb is his running style. He has the reputation as being a closer, but he's capable of making a strong move earlier in the race as needed--like in the Derby when he moved from 17th to 5th on the far turn.

     Given Moreno's suicide mission to try to win the Travers gate to wire (granted, the only way he can win), Verrazano and Palace Malice will be breathing down his back. It'll be interesting to see which stablemate moves first, but I can't imagine Joel Rosario will want either to be far away when they all turn for home. Those who think Orb is a deep closer do so at the risk of not realizing he might be in front by the eighth pole.
    Orb's Class Ratings, pace figures, & Speed Ratings
    Orb is one of four horses in the Travers who have run a 120+ E2 pace rating. This rating measures a horse's pace from the start of a race to the second call. Orb earned his 122 in the Kentucky Derby, which as a route means that figure represents his speed for the first six furlongs. Following that 122 Orb earned a late pace rating of 91, which is easily the highest LP figure of any of the 120+ horses. Verrazano posted a 126 in the Derby and came home with a 55. Will Take Charge did a 121-67 in the Derby, and Palace Malice went 129-57.

     Yes, a slower pace is expected here, which we certainly have seen can benefit Palace Malice at longer distances (he won the 1 1/2-mile Belmont with a 109-104-88 versus 127-129-57 for the Derby) and Verrazano at shorter distances (he's the only horse in the race to be above par at every point in call in a singular race, which he did in the 1 1/8-mile Haskell when earning pace ratings of 102-115-101), but the aforementioned presence of Moreno sets it up for the pop we saw from Orb in the Derby.

     So that's my case for Orb on top, but I think the best wagering opportunity is in betting against a 2-3-8 exacta box. That is, playing against two of Orb, Verrazano, and Palace Malice, respectively, to finish out of the top two. So for me, if Verrazano or Palace Malice wins that's OK as long as either of the Godolphin pair (#1 Romansh or #9 Transparent) sneaks in underneath, and I'll also put my thing down, flip it, and reverse it Missy "Misdemeanor" Elliott style.

     So 2, 3, 8 with 1, 9 and 1, 9 with 2, 3, 8 for $12 plus a $1 exacta box 1-9 for a little insanity insurance (plus my birthday is 1-9).

     I'll pay attention to the odds board, though. Orb is a play for me at 4-to-1. Given the big day and casual crowd, I think there's a better chance I get the right price on one of the big three than the others, and I think Orb is the most likely to offer that fair price.

  • The battle for three-year-old supremacy

    POSTED Aug 22, 2013 By Unknown
    The winner of this year's Travers Stakes has a good chance to become the first champion three-year-old male to win the midsummer classic since Summer Bird in 2009 and just the second in the past seven years, third in the past 12, and fourth in the past 18.

     Of course, it could be like 2007 when Street Sense became just the first Kentucky Derby winner to take the Travers since Thunder Gulch in 1995, but Street Sense ended up more like Sea Hero, who despite completing the rare Derby-Travers double, failed to earn the Eclipse Award as champion three-year-old male. Street Sense lost out to Curlin, who completed his season with a Jockey Club Gold Cup-Breeders' Cup Classic double, and Sea Hero somehow lost out to the late Prairie Bayou.

     One of those two scenarios is very likely to play out the remainder of the year. If one of the Grade 1 winners entered in this year's Travers (Orb, Palace Malice, and Verrazano) were to win the race, then he would unquestionably be the leader in the three-year-old division, and it would take a Curlin-like run at the end of the year for either of the also rans to catch up.

     Here's how I see the standings going into the race:
    1. Orb--Sure, his Triple Crown season following his sloppy Kentucky Derby win was less than stellar, but he did earn blacktype in the Belmont Stakes, which makes him just the second horse in the past nine years to do so (Mine That Bird was the other). No question he lost ground in the standings with his Preakness dud and non-threatening Belmont run, but two Grade 1 wins--including the biggest of all with the Derby--has him as head of the class. A Travers win or a loss by Verrazano & Palace Malice keeps him here.

     2. Palace Malice--I typically value Grade 1 wins over anything, but classic wins along with select Breeders' Cup races are essentially super Grade 1s in an era of too graded races to begin with. That's a long-winded way of saying Palace Malice's Belmont Stakes win means more to me than Verrazano's Wood and Haskell combined. Palace Malice also finished second in the Blue Grass on Polytrack and looked good in the Jim Dandy. A Travers win unquestionably moves him to the head of the class.

     3. Verrazano--Hard to imagine a colt with this much talent is third on any list, and if Oxbow were still around he might even be fourth, but the top spot is easily within reach, as a Travers win would make Verrazano this year's only three-time Grade 1 winner in his division (a distinction Princess of Sylmar has already achieved in her division). A Travers win would also answer the pesky 1 1/4 miles question and probably set him up as the favorite not only for the Breeders' Cup Classic but also Horse of the Year and one heck of an exciting stallion prospect.

     4. The others--A Travers win would get any of the other horses into the conversation as a top three-year-old, but other wins would be necessary to usurp the classic winners from the top spot.

     From a Horse of the Year perspective, a Breeders' Cup Classic win seems almost a must considering who is pointing for that race and Wise Dan has a big shot at 5 Grade 1 wins by the end of the year (albeit at 1-1 1/8 miles on the turf).

     In the video below, Triple Crown Insider takes a look at the Travers and all its implications, and Joel Cunningham and I agree on who will win the race.

  • Bullet Train Pulls Into Derby Station

    POSTED Apr 30, 2013 By Unknown
    One thing about the new Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands points system: the buzz it generated certainly outweighed its practical use.

    With a projected field of 19-20 entrants, there was no need for a mechanism to determine preference among 21-24 entries because all entries will be able to start.

    That's not to say it didn't serve a purpose, though: Handle and interest in Derby Championship Series races (the 85- and 170-point races) was definitely up, and even for an "insider", the points system made it easier to follow the Derby trail. No more worrying about what a fifth-place finish paid in races that had no business being Derby preps (e.g. the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf).

    Hopefully the connections of future Derby hopefuls learned something, too, because I think many got psyched out by the specter of needing a certain number of points (some predicted as many as 50!) to reach the Kentucky Derby starting gate, and any horse with more than 6 points could bump Fear The Kitten from this year's field.

    Following the Florida Derby, champion Shanghai Bobby had earned 24 points, and many thought that wouldn't be near enough to make the Kentucky Derby starting gate. His connections decided he would get some time off, but I wonder if they're ruing a missed opportunity now, as Shanghai Bobby easily would have made the field.

    I was right about the number of points (or lack thereof) needed to get in the Derby, including thinking weeks ago that more than 20 might not even enter, but I was wrong about who would have the most points. That is, I didn't think the top points-getters would also be the wagering favorites, but that's definitely the case with 150-point earners Orb and Verrazano, who I see as first and second choice, respectively.


    Going forward, it will be interesting to see which points-related statistics the industry and fans gravitate toward. Certainly they will help define key prep races year to year, but will records for most points by a trainer, jockey, sire, etc. enter the lexicon? What is the reasonable number of maximum points? 190? Will a filly try an open points race next year?

    In this regard, the points system is superior to the graded stakes earnings scheme. History is being made before our eyes; we're just still waiting for the first horse to be excluded on points.

  • Derby prom

    POSTED Apr 26, 2013 By Unknown
    Dana Byerly's "Derby Dating" columns are on hiatus, which is a shame because her approach was a fun way of parsing the contenders. With her blessing, I decided to take a run at the approach by aligning my picks with who I would want to take to prom.

     Itsmyluckyday, will you go to Derby Prom with me?

     Back in college, I wrote a massive research paper on the songs of Jim Steinman. As part of that research I discovered he was a high school classmate of Tony Kornheiser, who at the time was a Washington Post columnist. As luck would have it, he and "Jimmy" had study hall together senior year, so Tony had lots of perspective.

     "Jimmy was the type of guy who knew what it meant to be cool and knew that he wasn't it."

     I related to that idea then and still do now, which is why I know Orb and Verrazano aren't the prom dates for me. The popular crowd puts up with me, maybe lets me have a slice of eggplant Parmesan, but it doesn't want me around when they let their guard down to sing karaoke. Orb and Verrazano would be happy to be on my tickets, but they're saving themselves for someone else's top spots.

     Itsmyluckyday isn't at the top two's level, but he's still capable of cleaning up real nice and turning some heads. When we step out of the limo no one will be asking who we're wearing but maybe by the end of the night people will start paying attention.

     Goldencents is somewhat attractive as a sure thing. You know what you're going to get with him in that I think he's the horse most likely to get his ideal trip. Whether that's good enough remains to be seen, but if he's good enough he'll make it look easier and whomever his date is will have a reason to crow. Your limo could end up in a ditch, though, and you'll be wondering why you let Kevin Krigger drive.

     So hopefully things will go with Itsmyluckyday. I don't want to rush anything after Derby. There will definitely be a courtship even if he wins, but I could see tying the knot in time for the Belmont if things go well at Preakness too.

     I'll have a playlist for our DJ later.

  • A Kentucky Derby Best Bet

    POSTED Apr 20, 2013 By Derek Simon
    For many moons, I have talked about how potent horses with improving late speed rations (my own pace figures measuring late energy disbursement) are in the Kentucky Derby. Unfortunately, after several years with at least one qualifying animal (2000-2007), the plays dried up. Since 2008, only Chocolate Candy and Hansen showed the requisite improvement — and both of them raced over synthetic surfaces, casting doubt on the numbers.

    Hansen’s “improvement,” in particular, was almost surely the result of his switching from dirt to Polytrack for his final prep in the Blue Grass Stakes on April 14, 2012. Although the white colt with the blue tail (thank heavens that sideshow is a thing of the past) recorded a -4 late speed ration at Keeneland that day, LSRs recorded on turf and synthetic surfaces are typically 5-7 points lower than those recorded on dirt. Hence, the -7 figure that Hansen earned in the Gotham six weeks earlier was probably better than his (likely inflated) Blue Grass number.

    I’ve got some exciting news, though: There is a legitimate improving-LSR contender in this year’s Run for the Roses. Before I reveal who it is, however, some history is in order…

    Eureka! The Key to Derby Success Has Been Found

     When a great scientific breakthrough is achieved, it is often referred to as a “Eureka Moment.” Supposedly, this dates back to Archimedes, who, while attempting to determine whether or not King Hiero II’s new laurel-shaped crown was solid gold or a combination of lesser metals, drew a bath and made a startling discovery.

    The famous Greek mathematician, engineer, physicist, inventor and singer/songwriter (sure, why not?) found he could determine the density of the crown — without destroying it — simply by noting how much water it displaced.

    Overcome with joy and excitement, Archimedes, sans clothing, took to the streets, yelling, “Eureka! I have found it!”

    I wasn’t naked — nor did I feel compelled to jog — when I had my Eureka Moment on May 7, 2005, but I certainly did my share of screaming. Earlier, you see, while formulating my wagers for the 131st Kentucky Derby, I had unearthed an amazing statistic.

    I had observed that, in the two decades prior to the first Saturday in May of 2005, eight winners of the Run for the Roses had shown improving late speed rations, or LSRs, in their final two Kentucky Derby preps. In addition, these Derby champs often paid hefty prices — like the $51.00 that Thunder Gulch offered his backers in 1995 or the $64.60 that Charismatic returned in 1999.

    There were two Derby entrants that showed improving LSRs in 2005: Buzzards Bay and Giacomo. I settled on the latter, as his overall form looked best and he had established his class as a two-year-old when he was runner-up in the Grade I Hollywood Futurity. 

     And, like Archimedes before me, I felt the exhilaration of success, as Giacomo flew by the leaders en route to a half-length score in Louisville that year (I’m sure my shouts of encouragement helped spur him on). True, I didn’t receive the undying gratitude of a king or everlasting fame for my Eureka Moment, but I did collect a $102.60 mutuel.

    It was more than enough.

    Since then, no horse with improving LSRs has experienced Derby glory, although Hard Spun and Curlin completed the trifecta behind Street Sense in 2007. Nonetheless, it is an angle worth looking out for, as I’m sure it will pay off again before long. 

    (Click on image to enlarge)

    Rules

    1) Horse must have earned higher LSRs in each of its last two races.

    2) All horse’s last three races must’ve been contested over a route of ground (mile or greater) within the past 120 days and at least two of those races must’ve been graded stakes. 

     And the potential (fingers crossed) 2013 qualifier…

    (Click on image to enlarge)

    Verrazano fits the profile of the kind of runner we’re looking for in every respect and, in fact, has improved his LSR each time he’s run. The son of More Than Ready followed up a -13 LSR in his career debut, with a -5 in his second race, a -4 in his third start and, finally, a +1 figure in his final prep, the Grade I Wood Memorial.

    He’s going to have to overcome the dreaded Curse of Apollo (see below), of course, but I’m very impressed with the way Todd Pletcher has handled this guy. I’ve been critical of what I’ve felt was Pletcher’s one-size-fits-all approach in the past, but, this year, the veteran conditioner appears to have abandoned that strategy and I think — regardless of what happens in Louisville on the first Saturday in May — his stock will be the better for it. (Has any trainer been hotter on the 2013 Triple Crown trail than Pletcher?)

    Eureka!
    (Click on image to enlarge)

    The Curse of Apollo

    No horse since Apollo in 1882 has won the Kentucky Derby without having raced as a two-year-old. Below is a look at the Derby entrants that were unraced at two — and how they fared in Louisville — since 1937:

    (Click on image to enlarge)