• Know Your Simon’s Historical Investment Technique for the Derby

    POSTED Apr 27, 2013
    Thanks in large part to Ed Fountaine, I broke my Kentucky Derby handicapping maiden in 1984, the year that Swale gave Hall of Fame jockey Laffit Pincay, Jr. his first — and only — garland of roses.

    So, who is Ed Fountaine, some of you may be asking?

    Well, Fountaine was — and still is, for that matter — a turf writer for the NY Post. And, every year (or so it seemed), he published a system for selecting the Derby winner in American Turf Monthly, a magazine devoted to convincing horseplayers that handicapping can be broken down to a few simple rules and an insufficient workout of past plays. I’m kidding about that latter bit, of course, but there’s no denying that ATM loves its angles and methods.

    Fountaine’s system was a perfect example. It awarded points to Kentucky Derby entrants based on a host of criteria that the veteran scribe deemed to be important — and it was that criteria that pointed me to Swale in 1984.

    Naturally, the older and wiser I got, the more dubious I became of this kind of “race-ial” profiling, especially since Fountaine’s standards seemed to change every year. In ‘84, for example, he allotted 30 points to the winner of the Arkansas Derby; the year before, the victor got squat. Is it merely a coincidence that Sunny’s Halo captured the 109th Run for the Roses after first triumphing in Hot Springs?

    Still, there’s no denying that systems like Fountaine’s are a lot of fun, so, in my 2010 Kentucky Derby Guide, I decided to join the party by producing “Simon’s Historical Investment Technique” for the Kentucky Derby. And, lo and behold, Super Saver proved that my Simon’s Historical Investment Technique doesn’t stink, as he won the Derby just like the method predicted he would.

    Of course, over the past couple of years, the method has lived down to its acronym. However, like General Custer at the Battle of Little Bighorn, I’m convinced this year will be different. I vow to get my Simon’s Historical Investment Technique straight.

    So, without further doo-doo, here are my S. H. I. T. picks for 2013:

    WIN: Revolutionary
    PLACE: Mylute
    SHOW: Normandy Invasion

    History of Simon’s Historical Investment Technique
    (using Brisnet data)

    (Click on image to enlarge)

    2013 Kentucky Derby Guide Now Available

    My 2013 Kentucky Derby Betting Guide is now available at Brisnet.com. For just one easy payment of $10, you’ll receive unique insights and analysis relating to the most exciting two minutes in sports.

    This year’s Guide features an in-depth look at post positions, pedigree analysis by Laura Ross of Horse Racing Nation, “Key Race Ratings” of the top Derby preps and important form factors and characteristics of past Kentucky Derby winners.

    What’s more, the Guide also contains Brisnet past performances — with my pace figures — for every likely (and a few unlikely) contenders.

    Pick up your copy at http://www.brisnet.com/derby today … or tomorrow… or any time before the Derby… whatever works for you.

    Anonymous said...

    I've been doing this for 40 years and make a handsome living betting ATM picks!

    Derek Simon said...

    My flippant comment about ATM was a joke. I actually love that magazine (still have a collection of older editions).

    José D. De León-Alejandro said...

    Revolutionary has been my pick since 3 weeks ago followed by Itsmyluckyday.

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