Know Your Simon’s Historical Investment Technique for the Derby
Thanks in large part to Ed Fountaine, I broke my Kentucky
Derby handicapping maiden in 1984, the year that Swale gave Hall of Fame jockey
Laffit Pincay, Jr. his first — and only — garland of roses.
So, who is Ed Fountaine, some of you may be asking?
Well, Fountaine was — and still is, for that matter — a turf
writer for the NY Post. And, every
year (or so it seemed), he published a system for selecting the Derby winner in American Turf Monthly, a magazine devoted to convincing horseplayers that
handicapping can be broken down to a few simple rules and an insufficient
workout of past plays. I’m kidding about that latter bit, of course, but
there’s no denying that ATM loves its angles and methods.
Fountaine’s system was a perfect example. It awarded points
to Kentucky Derby entrants based on a host of criteria that the veteran scribe
deemed to be important — and it was that criteria that pointed me to Swale in
1984.
Naturally, the older and wiser I got, the more dubious I
became of this kind of “race-ial” profiling, especially since Fountaine’s
standards seemed to change every year. In ‘84, for example, he allotted 30
points to the winner of the Arkansas Derby; the year before, the victor got
squat. Is it merely a coincidence that Sunny’s Halo captured the 109th
Run for the Roses after first triumphing in Hot Springs?
Still, there’s no denying that systems like Fountaine’s are
a lot of fun, so, in my 2010 Kentucky Derby Guide, I decided to join the party
by producing “Simon’s Historical Investment Technique” for the Kentucky Derby. And,
lo and behold, Super Saver proved that my Simon’s Historical Investment
Technique doesn’t stink, as he won the Derby just like the method predicted he
would.
Of course, over the past couple of years, the method has
lived down to its acronym. However, like General Custer at the Battle of Little
Bighorn, I’m convinced this year will be different. I vow to get my Simon’s
Historical Investment Technique straight.
So, without further doo-doo, here are my S. H. I. T. picks
for 2013:
WIN:
Revolutionary
PLACE:
Mylute
SHOW:
Normandy Invasion
History of Simon’s Historical Investment Technique
(using
Brisnet data)
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(Click on image to enlarge)
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2013
Kentucky Derby Guide Now Available
My 2013 Kentucky Derby
Betting Guide is now available at Brisnet.com. For just one easy payment of
$10, you’ll receive unique insights and analysis relating to the most exciting
two minutes in sports.
This year’s Guide features an in-depth look at post
positions, pedigree analysis by Laura Ross of
Horse Racing Nation, “Key Race Ratings” of the top Derby preps and important
form factors and characteristics of past Kentucky Derby winners.
What’s more, the Guide also contains Brisnet past
performances — with my
pace figures — for every likely (and a few unlikely) contenders.
Pick up your copy at http://www.brisnet.com/derby
today … or tomorrow… or any time before the Derby… whatever works for you.
15 comments:
I've been doing this for 40 years and make a handsome living betting ATM picks!
My flippant comment about ATM was a joke. I actually love that magazine (still have a collection of older editions).
Revolutionary has been my pick since 3 weeks ago followed by Itsmyluckyday.
I value the blog.Thanks Again. Awesome.
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