Showing posts with label Mylute. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Mylute. Show all posts
  • POSTED Jul 27, 2013 By Unknown
    Day eight of the Saratoga Race Course meeting features two Grade 1 races, and in a testament to the lure of the three-year-old male division, a Grade 2 that many will view as the feature.

     It's certainly likely to be the feature of my wagering strategy, as I've made Mylute a lone "A" in the Jim Dandy Stakes. I don't know if we'll get 7-to-2, but I'd be thrilled with 5-to-2 considering he's getting weight as the fastest horse. As I learned to say in Maryland, "C'mon Rosie!"

     The rest of the day should be just as exciting with old warriors leading into a pair of baby races in the early Pick 3. Kauai Katie should dazzle in the Prioress, and since the Diana is so competitive I'm going with the longest shot on the board--Laughing--in a contest I'm in.


    Good luck to all!

  • Turning $20 to show into $10,000

    POSTED May 28, 2013 By Unknown
    We're still 11 days out, but the Belmont Stakes (click for FREE Brisnet.com Ultimate PPs of possible entrants) is shaping up to be a fantastic race as part of an always-fascinating card at Belmont Park.

     Many of us (including the TwinSpires.com Players Pool) will attempt to conquer the $1-million guaranteed Pick 6 and/or Pick 4 pools or any number of wagering opportunities on this day of more than $90-million in handle, but for 14 players on TwinSpires.com, a $20 show wager could be the most lucrative bet of the day.

     The potential bonanza comes by way of being the only people to survive similar $20 show bets on both the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands and the Preakness Stakes. Whomever makes a successful bet on the Belmont Stakes will split a $10,000 prize pool based on how many $20 show wagers were hit throughout the Kentucky Derby prep & Triple Crown seasons.

     Of the 1,253 who made qualifying show bets on the Derby, 344 (27.4%) advanced to the Preakness where Orb's fourth-place contributed to thinning the field by another 96% to the 14 are are still alive

    Those 14 surviving players have earned 70 shares total, meaning each share is worth a minimum of $119.04 if everyone hits the Belmont. Shares earned range from two (7 players) to ten (three players), so the minimum bonus is $357.12 to those with a pair of shares and $1309.44 to those with ten. Of course, if only one person survives then s/he would win the whole $10,000 regardless of how many shares s/he had going into the Belmont.

     The range of possibilities makes it an interesting study in gamesmanship. Picking the most likely horse to hit the board may yield a small show payoff ($2.60-$3), but a guaranteed $357.12 bonus is like getting back $38-$39, and that kind of scratch can be tough to turn down even in the face of going for thousands of dollars--because when it comes to betting longshots to show, you're at the mercy of who finishes in the other two positions.

    Getting cute and being right with a horse like Giant Finish won't matter much if Revolutionary and Orb complete the tri, so if you're going to take a big swing you want to make sure you'll be rewarded for it. 

    Kathy Brady already knows she's going for Revolutionary in the Belmont. That was her pick in the Derby, and his third-place finish advanced her to the Preakness where Mylute advanced her to the Belmont.

    "The Withers to me was the most impressive prep race, so I thought Revolutionary could win [the Derby] so I picked him to show," said Barker, who currently has seven shares and would collect a minimum of $952.32 with a successful Belmont bet. "In the Preakness I thought Orb would win, but his odds were terrible, so I thought Mylute could be possible for second or third. Oxbow was not in my thoughts to win. I won nothing but my Mylute show bet.

    "I don't know if post position matters that much in the Belmont, but I think Castellano back on Revolutionary can make a difference, so I will have him back as my show bet."

    Pete Ballard is one of three people with ten shares, and like Brady, Ballard has advanced through the Triple Crown season by using Revolutionary and Mylute. Unlike Brady, however, Ballard is unsure who his Belmont pick will be. As a devoted user of the Brisnet.com MultiCAPS files, Ballard likes to crunch the numbers before making picks.

    "I am a software developer, and I use the MultiCAPS data files to do my analysis," Ballard said. "I use four main factors that I key off of, but I still look at other variables that I learned from Brisnet.com newsletter/tutorials--things like pace, race shapes, value, and finding the 'horse for the course.'

    "As far as the Belmont is concerned, can Orb come back and be a legit favorite this time or is he regressing now? Can Mylute improve at this distance? How does Revolutionary look after a 4 week rest and does it have the pedigree for this distance? There are several other horses in the Belmont that I like besides these three. I need to look deeper ... before I can make a decision."

    It's easy to understand the desire to explore all angles when as much as $10,000 is on the line for something as seemingly simple as a $20 show bet.


    For those out of the Showdown promotion (or those never in it, anyway), all TwinSpires.com players will have a chance at an extra $10,000 courtesy the Belmont Pick 4 bonus. All those who hit the all-stakes Pick 4 ending with the Belmont Stakes will share in a separate $10,000 prize pool.

  • Enter the Preakness exacta matrix

    POSTED May 14, 2013 By Unknown
    Anyone can make a morning line for projected win odds, but making one for exacta will pays takes a little more finesse, though I did take some liberties to make it easier while still providing guidance as to where the money will go in the exacta pool:

     1. Orb is the overwhelming choice to win at 4-to-5 in the top spot (odds account for 21% takeout in the exact pool). He's also the most likely second-place finisher with 24.76% of that pool. It's an interesting take because the Derby winner has 72% of the money in the exacta pool but probably won't even have half the place pool. Thus, betting Orb to place is a much better bet than wheeling him up and down in the exacta.

     2. No surprise that all other horses besides Orb are more likely to finish second than first. Departing is the second choice to win with his price based on exacta will pays at $11.60.

    3. I lumped Goldencents, Itsmyluckyday, Mylute,  Oxbow, and Will Take Charge together as co-third choices ($16.40) then made Govenor Charlie the eighth choice ($26.40) and Titletown Five the longest shot ($34.80).

    4. The big opinion here is that Departing will be closer in price to the third tier of Derby also rans than to the Derby winner. A chalk-chalk exacta comes back 9-to-1, but Departing on top is a much more robust 21-to-1.

    5. Because the biggest jump is from Orb to Departing and not Departing to the next tier, things really blow up if you get Orb out of the exacta. Regardless of your wagering style, it's an interesting phenomena to note because the multis are probably going to be the same way. Whereas at first it appeared that beating Departing might provide some value if you liked Orb, this shows that if you're willing to bet against Orb, don't let Departing beat you.

    Enjoy!

     

  • Know Your Simon’s Historical Investment Technique for the Derby

    POSTED Apr 27, 2013 By Derek Simon
    Thanks in large part to Ed Fountaine, I broke my Kentucky Derby handicapping maiden in 1984, the year that Swale gave Hall of Fame jockey Laffit Pincay, Jr. his first — and only — garland of roses.

    So, who is Ed Fountaine, some of you may be asking?

    Well, Fountaine was — and still is, for that matter — a turf writer for the NY Post. And, every year (or so it seemed), he published a system for selecting the Derby winner in American Turf Monthly, a magazine devoted to convincing horseplayers that handicapping can be broken down to a few simple rules and an insufficient workout of past plays. I’m kidding about that latter bit, of course, but there’s no denying that ATM loves its angles and methods.

    Fountaine’s system was a perfect example. It awarded points to Kentucky Derby entrants based on a host of criteria that the veteran scribe deemed to be important — and it was that criteria that pointed me to Swale in 1984.

    Naturally, the older and wiser I got, the more dubious I became of this kind of “race-ial” profiling, especially since Fountaine’s standards seemed to change every year. In ‘84, for example, he allotted 30 points to the winner of the Arkansas Derby; the year before, the victor got squat. Is it merely a coincidence that Sunny’s Halo captured the 109th Run for the Roses after first triumphing in Hot Springs?

    Still, there’s no denying that systems like Fountaine’s are a lot of fun, so, in my 2010 Kentucky Derby Guide, I decided to join the party by producing “Simon’s Historical Investment Technique” for the Kentucky Derby. And, lo and behold, Super Saver proved that my Simon’s Historical Investment Technique doesn’t stink, as he won the Derby just like the method predicted he would.

    Of course, over the past couple of years, the method has lived down to its acronym. However, like General Custer at the Battle of Little Bighorn, I’m convinced this year will be different. I vow to get my Simon’s Historical Investment Technique straight.

    So, without further doo-doo, here are my S. H. I. T. picks for 2013:

    WIN: Revolutionary
    PLACE: Mylute
    SHOW: Normandy Invasion

    History of Simon’s Historical Investment Technique
    (using Brisnet data)

    (Click on image to enlarge)

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