Creating Your Own Systems & Angles
Recently,
after telling a Facebook friend that my Win Factor and Pace Profile reports
were best used in conjunction with one’s own handicapping or as the basis of a system
or angle, I was asked a great question: “OK, so how do I come up with an angle?”
Indeed.
It is a question that has no easy answer. To me, developing a winning system —
and the “winning” part should be stressed; anybody can develop a losing system — is part science, part art,
part long nights and strong booze.
Let
me start by giving some advice on what not
to do: Don’t try to string a bunch of positive impact-value factors together.
Although this sounds like a great idea, in reality it doesn’t work.
For
example, according to my database studies, horses with the best last-race Brisnet
speed figure have an impact value of 2.05 — meaning that they win approximately
twice as often as expected (impact values are computed by dividing the
percentage of winners showing a particular characteristic by the percentage of
entrants possessing that characteristic). Those same studies also reveal that
horses with the highest BRIS Power Rating have a 2.49 IV.
Now,
according to the more ardent impact-value handicappers, combining these factors
should result in an IV in the neighborhood of 5.10 (2.05 x 2.49). Others are less
optimistic, but still believe that the IV will be considerably higher than 2.49
(the higher IV of the two).
The
actual IV? 2.82.
To
put this in perspective, race favorites (excluding entries and/or multiple top
betting choices) yield a 2.76 IV. Worse, none of these impact-value angles
account for the odds, or ROI. And, as I stated at the outset, that is
ultimately what we are concerned with. Horses with the best last-race speed
figure yield a 17.1 percent loss; animals with the best BRIS Power Rating show
a 14.9 percent loss; and the two factors combined produce a 15.9 percent loss.
Of
course, many impact-value handicappers have a solution to this value conundrum.
“Just
insist on higher odds,” they say, presumably with an indulgent smile.
OK,
let’s do that. Since horses with the highest last-race Brisnet speed figure and
best BRIS Power Rating win approximately 38 percent of the time according to my
studies, let’s insist on odds of 9-5, which, in theory, should result in a 5-6
percent ROI. (No point in being greedy and seeking higher odds.)
Sadly,
this “fair odds” requirement didn’t produce the money tree that we’d hoped for.
In fact, it produced just the opposite. Not only did we lower the impact value of
these combined factors to 1.76, but we also increased the negative ROI to -19.6
percent, worse than any of the individual factors.
Naturally,
this raises the question: Is there a way to stem all this red ink or am I
simply trying to squash everybody’s dream of racetrack riches?
The
answer is no… no, I’m not trying to squash everybody’s dream of racetrack
riches, that is. There are solutions
to the issues I presented. While I don’t have the space to get very in-depth,
here are some general guidelines to adhere to when developing your own systems
and methods:
1) Try to use unique criterion. One of the reasons that impact values don’t ascend like some handicappers expect them to when positive-IV factors are combined is because the factors overlap.For instance, I am reasonably sure that the BRIS Power Ratings take speed into account, so combining them with the best last-race speed figure as we did above is, in effect, double-weighting speed as a factor.
That’s OK in some instances, but one should at least be aware of what they are doing.
2) Related to the above, make sure that your rules make sense and that they work together. If you think last-race form is important — I certainly do — than you absolutely, positively need to impose a date requirement on that race. After all, is it really logical to credit a horse for a great last race (however one defines that) when it was run two years ago? I think not.3) Follow the KISS (keep-it-simple-stupid) principle whenever possible. Many a novice player goes astray by trying to make their angles/systems too complex. Unless you are using mathematical regression techniques or other advanced mathematical procedures to weight the factors you are using, stick with what you know.
None of my angles take body language into account. Why? Because nine times out of 10 I can’t spot it, much less quantify it.4) This has been a key to my own success: Try to make your techniques as broad and universal as possible — don’t over-optimize.You will find that you can usually unearth profitable angles in any subset of data, but in doing so you run the very great risk of what some have called the “backtest fallacy.” In other words, as you pare down the data, you wind up fitting it to your preconceived notions, as opposed to the other way around.
Hence, when you apply your “wonder system” to new data, it crumbles like Anthony Weiner’s political aspirations… again.
I
hope these rules help. I’ll end this piece with a sampling of my own angle/method
spot plays for Wednesday, July 31:
Performance Rating Angle Plays
Performance Rating Angle Plays
Bet to win at even
odds (1-1) or greater
BEU1: 2-Maestro Miss (2-1 on the morning line)
BEU1: 2-Maestro Miss (2-1 on the morning line)
DEL1:
5-Its Looking (7-2)
DEL7: 7-Upside Down (3-1)
DEL7: 7-Upside Down (3-1)
NP2:
5-Kool Shazoom (8-5)
NP4:
4-Passion Red (8-1)
TDN2:
7-Sky Kerridge (3-1)
Top Form Plays
BEU2:
4-Swayze Lady (2-1)
NP8:
5-Masked Man (15-1)
PEN4:
1-Crimson Chrome (6-1)
Top-LSR Plays
BOI10:
3-Escaping the Storm (8-1)
SAR4:
4-Rakin’ Gold (12-1)
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