Creating Your Own Systems & Angles
1) Try to use unique criterion. One of the reasons that impact values don’t ascend like some handicappers expect them to when positive-IV factors are combined is because the factors overlap.For instance, I am reasonably sure that the BRIS Power Ratings take speed into account, so combining them with the best last-race speed figure as we did above is, in effect, double-weighting speed as a factor.
That’s OK in some instances, but one should at least be aware of what they are doing.
2) Related to the above, make sure that your rules make sense and that they work together. If you think last-race form is important — I certainly do — than you absolutely, positively need to impose a date requirement on that race. After all, is it really logical to credit a horse for a great last race (however one defines that) when it was run two years ago? I think not.3) Follow the KISS (keep-it-simple-stupid) principle whenever possible. Many a novice player goes astray by trying to make their angles/systems too complex. Unless you are using mathematical regression techniques or other advanced mathematical procedures to weight the factors you are using, stick with what you know.
None of my angles take body language into account. Why? Because nine times out of 10 I can’t spot it, much less quantify it.4) This has been a key to my own success: Try to make your techniques as broad and universal as possible — don’t over-optimize.You will find that you can usually unearth profitable angles in any subset of data, but in doing so you run the very great risk of what some have called the “backtest fallacy.” In other words, as you pare down the data, you wind up fitting it to your preconceived notions, as opposed to the other way around.
Hence, when you apply your “wonder system” to new data, it crumbles like Anthony Weiner’s political aspirations… again.
Performance Rating Angle Plays
BEU1: 2-Maestro Miss (2-1 on the morning line)
DEL7: 7-Upside Down (3-1)