• Handicapping Made Easy

    POSTED Sep 21, 2013
    Awhile back I discussed how one could use past odds and purse values to quickly handicap a horse race. Today, I want to expound upon that idea.

    It is little secret that the betting crowd is the best at determining which horses are likely to perform well and, conversely, which horses are likely to perform not-so-well in a particular race. Like most speculative markets, the pari-mutuel market is generally efficient. Anybody who thinks a 30-1 shot wins as often as a 3-1 shot hasn’t gone to the racetrack very much… or has been sniffing too much horse manure.

    Simply put, the odds are meaningful — and not just today’s odds. The odds in a horse’s past races are important too, because, in a very real sense, they reflect the animal’s realistic chance of winning the race(s) in question. What’s more, for those trying to assess a horse’s talent, the odds offer a great way to do so — quickly and efficiently.

    Take, for example, the third race at Belmont Park on Friday, Sept. 20. 

    For a key to the past performances posted below, click HERE.

    (Click on image to enlarge)

    Without looking at the tote board, class figures or any other traditional gauge of ability, one can see that Shanghai Bobby is the horse to beat. By concentrating on each horse’s last three races and finding its median odds, a picture of the race contention begins to develop:

    3-Shanghai Bobby (1.3)
    2-Dads Caps (1.9)
    4-Purple Egg (2.4)
    1-Slan Abhaile (3.1)
    5-Tenango (3.4)

    Now, let’s throw median purse value* into the mix and see what happens:

    3-Shanghai Bobby ($1 million)
    4-Purple Egg ($85K)
    1-Slan Abhaile ($82K)
    5-Tenango ($82K)
    2-Dads Caps ($62K)

    *Any means of assessing the class of the races can be used; purse values are just easy and straightforward.

    Given this data, it’s pretty easy to see why Shanghai Bobby was made the 3-5 favorite. Not surprisingly, he won and paid $3.20.

    I know what you’re thinking: Sure Derek, finding a 3-5 shot is easy… but it doesn’t pay for a three-day-old hot dog at the concession stand. Can the same kind of analysis ferret out a price horse or two?

    Oh ye of little faith. Let’s take a look at the eighth race on Friday’s card:

    (Click on image to enlarge)

    Median Odds

    6-Ol Donyo (2.1)
    7-Saturday Nthe Park (2.2)
    5-Girl Code (3.2)
    2-Flash Forward (4.5)
    3-Ruby Lips (8.9)
    4-Toasting (19.1)
    1-Let Me Entertain U (58.3)

    Median Purse Value

    4-Toasting ($300K)
    1-Let Me Entertain U ($250K)
    2-Flash Forward ($100K)
    3-Ruby Lips ($100K)
    5-Girl Code ($85K)
    6-Ol Donyo ($60K)
    7-Saturday Nthe Park ($49K)

    In this case, the picture is not so clear, as the horses with lower median odds have been competing for lesser purses and vice-versa. Hence, I would not take the past odds at face value, but would, instead, add the rankings in each category to see if that helps clear things up:

    6-Ol Donyo (1+6= 7)
    7-Saturday Nthe Park (2+7= 9)
    5-Girl Code (3+5= 8)
    2-Flash Forward (4+3= 7)
    3-Ruby Lips (5+4= 9)
    4-Toasting (6+1= 7)
    1-Let Me Entertain U (7+2= 9)

    It does. Ol Donyo, Flash Forward and Toasting are all tied for the best overall ranking (7) and, thus, using median past odds as the tie-breaker, the former would be the play, with Flash Forward the second choice and Toasting the third selection.

    The race finished 6-2-7, with Ol Donyo paying a generous $16.40 to win and the Ol Donyo-Flash Forward $2 exacta returning $37.40.

    Give this method a try on some races this weekend and see what you think—it’s fun, easy… and, at least on Friday at Belmont Park, profitable.

    Pace Profile Play of the Week

    (Click on image to enlarge)

    Both my Pace Profile Report and Win Factor Report list Triple A. Rating as a vulnerable favorite, so I’ll try to beat him in both the win pool and the exotics. The horse I like the most is 4-SAILOR GULLY, a six-year-old gelding making just his second start since Sept. 14, 2011. Races at today’s distance (5 ½ furlongs) at Penn National are typically won by speed horses (surprise, surprise) and Sailor Gully may be the quickest of the quick. The son of Stormy Atlantic earned a -11 early speed ration (ESR) in his comeback race and held on well to finish third — on the turf, a surface that is most kind to horses with a late kick. The 70-day layoff since that race concerns me, but trainer Michael Pappada is top-notch, especially with horses dropping in class off of a good effort (40 percent wins in 15 tries).

    I’m also intrigued by 7-SMALL GIANT, who was claimed back by trainer David Wells for $6,250 after he lost him (via the claim box) for $4,000 to conditioner John Locke on Aug. 1. Small Giant has great tactical speed and has faced — and beaten — tougher in the past.

    Suggested Play(s): EXACTA 4,7 with 1,3,4,7.
  • 13 comments:

    Hardeep said...

    Roku is a streaming device, which is a reasonable roku activation and other Set-up Box. Roku is a bundle of amusement, where client can stream for boundless motion appears, web arrangement, news, animation and a lot more projects.

    Johns Martin said...

    Hey Guyz, my name is Johns Martin. I am working as a software analyst in Arizona, USA. My hobby is to conduct research on the latest technology. As cybercrimes are increasing at an abrupt rate, it is essential to protect our devices from such malwares and theft with the help of excellent Amazon app, visit: amazon.com/mytv

    Chanchal said...

    If you want to know more about it then you can visit our website Disneyplus.com/beginand take advantage of it. Click Here for the DisneyPlus.com Login: Sign In to Disney+ If you’ve been using Disney Plus on your iPhone or Samsung TV but now want to use it on your TV, then you need to know theDisneyplus.com/begin page. Hbogo.com/activate - Are you facing any problem to activate HBO Go on Roku or other device just follow simple steps to activate.It provides a wider range Hbogo.com/activate of streaming channels and videos which users can choose according to their current moods. Download the HBO Max on your device to experience excellent sound and video quality of unlimited movies, shows and much more withHbogo.com/activate.

    Chanchal said...

    The process to get the HBO MAX activation code is to first open your web browser and go to Hbogo.com/activate and your hbo max account by registered email ID.OpenHbogo.com/activate on your Mac/PC/mobile device. Download and install HBO MAX on your smart tv.HBO Max offers TV shows, blockbuster movies, and new Max Originals to its users. Visit hbomax.com/tvsignin and choose your subscription plan and start streaming with hbo max. Go to hbomax.com/tvsignin and follow the simple procedure to create an account for hbomax. Hbo max is easy to setup and connect with your smart tv. To know more details about hbo max setup and sign up visit its official website: hbomax.com/tvsignin and complete the steps for setup.

    Chanchal said...

    Using a Canon printer service phone, you can get a full installation of the Canon.com/ijsetup and go to the installed Canon printer to download the Canon.com/ijsetup .To get more and more information, visit our websiteCanon.com/ijsetup and get the information according to convenience.Download the Canon printer from Canon.com/ijsetupand set it up on your device. Canon printers are all in one printer that facilitates print, copy and scan. And to download Canon ijsetup printer drivers you can visit our website Canon.com/ijsetup .

    Chanchal said...

    Canon printers are designed for personal and business use. To learn more about Canon printers, visit our website Canon.com/ijsetup and take advantage.The Canon printer enhances scan functionality, and includes a robust security feature set. Using a Canon printer service phone, you can get a full installation of the Ij.start.canon and go to the installed Canon printer to download the ij.start.canon To get more and more information, visit our website Ij.start.canon and get the information according to convenience .Canon printer is the best printer out of all printers. Which allows for the best print, copy and scan. Canon printers are designed for personal as well as commercial use. You can visit the Ij.start.canon website to download the Ij.start.canon.For more information visit our website

    Chanchal said...

    Using a Canon printer service phone, you can get a full installation of the Ij.start.canon and go to the installed Canon printer to download the [url=https://sites.google.com/view/ijstartcanonn/]Ij.start.canon[/url].To get more and more information, visit our website Ij.start.canon and get the information according to convenience .Canon.Com ijsetup will manual you Ij.start.canon to Install Canon printer brand new updated drivers, for Canon printer setup you could additionally visit.If we talk about printers the first Canon Printer Setup name comes in our thoughts is Canon printer, on this internet site we will inform you a way to setup & deploy your canon printer with little information approximately computers.Download from and setup on your device.Canon Printer Setup Canon printers are all in one printer that facilitates print, copy and scan. The canon printers are designed for personal as well as business use.

    Chanchal said...

    Download the driver or software for the printer scanner. To install your additional Canon driver or software, go to the Canon Printer Drivers link and follow the steps on it. To get more information about it, visit our website Canon Printer Drivers and enjoy.The Canon printer enhances scan functionality, and includes a robust security feature set. Using a Canon printer service phone, you can get a full installation of the Canon Printer Drivers and go to the installed Canon printer to download the Canon Printer Drivers .To get more and more information, visit our website and get the information according to convenience .To setup and download the Hp priter driver software, visit our website 123.hp.com/setup. The 123 hp setup HP printer makes printing hassle-free and easy. Install the hp printer on your Windows or Mac computer and install the drivers via 123.hp.com/setup For more information, contact our team at 123.hp.com/setup. We are always available to help you.

    Chanchal said...

    To setup and install your 123 HP printer go to 123.hp.com/setup for mac . For installation of drivers, seek help immediately from the website 123.hp.com/setup. We’ll help you download the right HP printer software and drivers. Be sure to install cartridges, load paper and power on the printer. Download the 123.hp.com/setup to get the recommended software for your printer.HP printers offer high-quality printing documents with high speed and have become an integral requirement of our personal as well as professional life. Hp printer is an affordable home printer that generates extraordinary quality documents and photos. The steps to download and install a hp printer driver are here at HP Printer Setup Go-ahead to get your hp printer setup now.HP printers are best known for their high-quality printing. These printers are the most trusted and useful printer brand that helps the users to enjoy high-quality printing and installation facility. Get your HP Printer connected with your device and download the setup from HP Printer Setup and learn how to install it.The Amazon My TV Code program requires the customer to have an Amazon account and a streaming device or TV.Amazon.com/mytv Amazon Prime Video is available on almost all streaming devices like Roku, Amazon Fire TV, Chromecast.

    karen jodes said...

    Canon IJ printer is widely known for stunning print quality and innovative print features. It is an ideal choice for both home and workplace. If you have bought a Canon IJ printer, you may face several difficulties while setting it up. To help you carry out the setup process quickly, check out the link canon.com/ijsetup.

    BTL카지노 said...

    https://www.oobbg.com 우리카지노사이트
    https://www.oobbg.com/theking 더킹카지노
    https://www.oobbg.com/sands 샌즈카지노
    https://www.oobbg.com/first 퍼스트카지노
    https://www.oobbg.com/yes 예스카지노
    https://www.oobbg.com/coin 코인카지노
    https://www.oobbg.com/33 33카지노
    https://www.oobbg.com/world 월드카지노
    https://www.oobbg.com/merit 메리트카지노
    https://www.oobbg.com/gatsby 개츠비카지노

    BTL카지노 said...

    https://www.omgka.com 우리카지노사이트
    https://www.omgka.com/theking 더킹카지노
    https://www.omgka.com/sands 샌즈카지노
    https://www.omgka.com/first 퍼스트카지노
    https://www.omgka.com/yes 예스카지노
    https://www.omgka.com/super 슈퍼카지노
    https://www.omgka.com/gatsby 개츠비카지노
    https://www.omgka.com/33 33카지노
    https://www.omgka.com/world 월드카지노
    https://www.omgka.com/merit 메리트카지노

    BTL카지노 said...

    https://www.omgab.com 우리카지노사이트
    https://www.omgab.com/theking 더킹카지노
    https://www.omgab.com/sands 샌즈카지노
    https://www.omgab.com/first 퍼스트카지노
    https://www.omgab.com/yes 예스카지노
    https://www.omgab.com/super 슈퍼카지노
    https://www.omgab.com/gatsby 개츠비카지노
    https://www.omgab.com/33 33카지노
    https://www.omgab.com/world 월드카지노
    https://www.omgab.com/merit 메리트카지노

    Post a Comment