Showing posts with label horse race handicapping. Show all posts
Showing posts with label horse race handicapping. Show all posts

  • Cotolo’s Harness Review, News And Notes

    POSTED Apr 6, 2014 By Frank Cotolo

    This weekend’s features, once again, did not equal the successes of our overnight choices, mostly due to what has been occurring with the features, that is, the “Levy” at Yonkers. We managed to do well enough, though, considering the circumstance.

    In a rare state of agreement with Harness Racing Update’s Bill Finley, we believe bettors have not had much to target in the series’ with public choices annihilating prices., Five of the nine winners paid $3.10 or less in the first two Levy legs. The hubbub centers on the many entries from the Ron Burke barn and the coupling rule. As Finley writes, you cannot blame Burke or Yonkers, it is the fault of the racing commission for not changing the rule.

    For the fact of the terrible prices, we feel nothing short of famous for our performance at Yonkers on April 5 in the series third leg. We nailed division three with Apprentice Hanover in a race with two coupled entries, The field of seven had only five betting entities, making the price (no place or show betting) sterling for the occasion. Apprentice Hanover paid $7.50.

    As well, in division two, using the race favorite with our second choice, Sapphire City ($6.70, no show betting) created an exacta worth $17.20. You can only imagine how the prices would have swelled had there been no coupling.

    In the Matchmaker at Yonkers on Friday, April 4, we supplied and exacta and two thirds of the trifecta with the favorite atop the tickets. Fashion Mystery (44-1) paid $11 to place (no show betting) resulting in an exacta worth $34.20. Our other choice, Ramalama did not pay off for third but contributed to the trifecta worth $74.50.

    Then, Friday at the Meadowlands we offered a few horses, which you may have added to your Pick 3 and Early Pick 4 tickets and/or played across the board. We gave you the first-leg winner, Upfront Elizabeth ($11.80, $6.40, $2.80) and the fourth-leg winner, Drift Away ($25.20, $11.40, $6.80).

    The 50-cent bonus Pick 4 bonus at Buffalo Raceway on Wednesdays with a 10-percent-bonus on winning the exotic ended with April 5’s combination. Our Twitter suggestions did not produce winners but on the board, two were huge payoffs for place and show. Blow Away was third, paying $12.80 in leg one, while A And G’s Doll paid $25.40 to place and $9.10 to show.

    TwinSpires now switches to Indiana with the Hoosier 10-percent Pick 4 Bonus. Every time you cash a winning Pick 4 ticket at Hoosier Park, you receive a bonus equal to 10 percent of the gross winnings, up to $500 per night. We will assist on Twitter occasionally, with suggestions for your tickets. Follow @FrankCotolo and @TwinSpires for choices.

    For complete details:
    | http://www.twinspires.com/10-pick-4-bonus-every-night-hoosier-park


     H2W RESULTS

    The H2W results list across-the-board prices. Also, exactas are included when a H2W horse finishing first or second completes the result with a race favorite or another H2W horse listed in the same race (an asterisk appears when both horses were listed to complete the exacta).

    Winners

    Make You Famous, $9.80, $3.80, $3.60 (Exacta $21.20), Pompano
    Silverlode, $9.80, $4.60, $3.20 (Exacta $16.20), Cal Expo
    Lucky Man Again, $4.80, $3.40, $2.20, Cal Expo
    Beach Boy Tiger, $3.50, $2.40, $2.10, Saratoga

    Seconds

    Doctor Gates, $20.40, $6.50, $5.30, Buffalo
    Muncie, $6.50, $2.70, Saratoga
    Trys Little Prince, $5.80, $3, Pocono
    Me Tarzan, $5.20, $3.20, Cal Expo
    Sparky Mark, $3.60, $2.40 (Exacta $9.60), Pocono

    Thirds

    Village Jackson, $8.60, Saratoga
    Milliondollarmarch, $4.30, Saratoga
    Mama Made Me Blue, $2.80, Miami Valley
    Southwind Missouri, $2.80, Scarborough

    News And Notes

    Maven, Uncle Peter, Shebestingin, Archangel, D’Orsay and Rockin Amadeus were among the stars qualifying over the weekend at the Meadowlands. The return to the races for several stakes types is eminent. Archangel prepped after spending 2013 at stud. He now resides in the Burke bar. He won his qualifier racing against the wind. Four-year-old Ma Chere Hall, a success as a choice at this blog last year, was second for trainer Jonas Czernyson, who also sent out Mistery Woman and aged mares Maven and D’Orsay. They finished second and third, respectively, behind Jimmy Takter’s millionaire Uncle Peter. Shebestingin came back for a second trial and won for trainer Joe Holloway. He had another winner with Always B Miki, sired by Joe’s classics winner Always A Virgin.

    April begins a full slate of stakes action at Northfield Park. The $100,000 (guaranteed) Courageous Lady will go to post on Friday, April 25. A nationally open stakes event for North America’s top three year-old filly pacers, it is the first national stakes race of the 2014 season. Among the 16 fillies nominated to the Courageous Lady are last year’s frosh standouts A La Notte Hanover, Fiyonce, Rustys Bliss and Sister Stroll. The connections of top three year-olds in the country have shown great interest in the newly added $500,000 (est.) Carl Milstein Memorial. The race for three-year-old colt and gelding pacers is the richest single standardbred event in Ohio for 2014 and has been slated for Friday, Aug.15. Included in the 42 nominees are Allstar Partner, Boomboom Ballykeel, Luck Be Withyou and Western.

    The $150,000 Cleveland Classic is the final open stakes event this year. North America’s top soph-pacing colts take the stage on Friday, Dec. 12. There are 38 colts nominated to the Cleveland Classic, including last year’s standouts Allstar Partner, Boomboom Ballykeel and Hes Watching. In other racing news at Northfield Park, the $150,000 (g.) Battle Of Lake Erie is set for Saturday, July 19 and has 25 nominees that have combined career earnings in excess of $23 million, including Apprentice Hanover, Bolt The Duer and Foiled Again. “Battle” nominees also include Aracache Hanover, Clear Vision, Heston Blue Chip, Michaels Power and Sweet Lou.

    Northfield Park’s Stakes Calendar for 2014:
    Friday, April 25 - Courageous Lady
    Thursday, July 3 - Ohio Sires Stakes (frosh filly pace and trot) 
    Saturday, July 19 - Battle Of Lake Erie
    Ohio Sires Stakes - (two- and three-year-old colt pace and trot)
    Saturday, July 26 - Summit County Fair Stakes
    Friday, Aug. 15 - Carl Milstein Memorial
    Friday, Sept. 5 - Ohio Sires Stakes (two- and three-year-old filly pace and trot)
    Friday, Dec.12 - Cleveland Classic

    Extraordinary Extras

    Indulge in many standardbred topics at my Hoof Beats blog titled Vast Performances.

    Ray Cotolo contributed to this blog

    Cartoons by Thom Pye

  • TwinSpires Racing Radio Show

    POSTED Nov 6, 2013 By Derek Simon


    Host Derek Simon and Ed DeRosa of Brisnet.com recap last weekend's Breeders' Cup races, including Wise Dan's electrifying run in the Mile, Goldencents'  scintillating score in the Dirt Mile and Mucho Macho Man's gutsy win in the Classic.

    They also delve into the Juvenile (was the 2013 Kentucky Derby winner in the field?), the "track bias" (was it real or imaginary?) and the Eclipse Awards.

    In the U. of Bet segment, Dave “The Horse Handicapping Authority” Schwartz drops by to discuss how one can learn from the Breeders’ Cup races, as well as the value of practice (insert Allen Iverson jokes here).

    Lastly, Derek visits the BC archives to determine who the best Mile winner was — Wise Dan, Goldikova or Gio Ponti.


  • Handicapping Made Easy

    POSTED Sep 21, 2013 By Derek Simon
    Awhile back I discussed how one could use past odds and purse values to quickly handicap a horse race. Today, I want to expound upon that idea.

    It is little secret that the betting crowd is the best at determining which horses are likely to perform well and, conversely, which horses are likely to perform not-so-well in a particular race. Like most speculative markets, the pari-mutuel market is generally efficient. Anybody who thinks a 30-1 shot wins as often as a 3-1 shot hasn’t gone to the racetrack very much… or has been sniffing too much horse manure.

    Simply put, the odds are meaningful — and not just today’s odds. The odds in a horse’s past races are important too, because, in a very real sense, they reflect the animal’s realistic chance of winning the race(s) in question. What’s more, for those trying to assess a horse’s talent, the odds offer a great way to do so — quickly and efficiently.

    Take, for example, the third race at Belmont Park on Friday, Sept. 20. 

    For a key to the past performances posted below, click HERE.

    (Click on image to enlarge)

    Without looking at the tote board, class figures or any other traditional gauge of ability, one can see that Shanghai Bobby is the horse to beat. By concentrating on each horse’s last three races and finding its median odds, a picture of the race contention begins to develop:

    3-Shanghai Bobby (1.3)
    2-Dads Caps (1.9)
    4-Purple Egg (2.4)
    1-Slan Abhaile (3.1)
    5-Tenango (3.4)

    Now, let’s throw median purse value* into the mix and see what happens:

    3-Shanghai Bobby ($1 million)
    4-Purple Egg ($85K)
    1-Slan Abhaile ($82K)
    5-Tenango ($82K)
    2-Dads Caps ($62K)

    *Any means of assessing the class of the races can be used; purse values are just easy and straightforward.

    Given this data, it’s pretty easy to see why Shanghai Bobby was made the 3-5 favorite. Not surprisingly, he won and paid $3.20.

    I know what you’re thinking: Sure Derek, finding a 3-5 shot is easy… but it doesn’t pay for a three-day-old hot dog at the concession stand. Can the same kind of analysis ferret out a price horse or two?

    Oh ye of little faith. Let’s take a look at the eighth race on Friday’s card:

    (Click on image to enlarge)

    Median Odds

    6-Ol Donyo (2.1)
    7-Saturday Nthe Park (2.2)
    5-Girl Code (3.2)
    2-Flash Forward (4.5)
    3-Ruby Lips (8.9)
    4-Toasting (19.1)
    1-Let Me Entertain U (58.3)

    Median Purse Value

    4-Toasting ($300K)
    1-Let Me Entertain U ($250K)
    2-Flash Forward ($100K)
    3-Ruby Lips ($100K)
    5-Girl Code ($85K)
    6-Ol Donyo ($60K)
    7-Saturday Nthe Park ($49K)

    In this case, the picture is not so clear, as the horses with lower median odds have been competing for lesser purses and vice-versa. Hence, I would not take the past odds at face value, but would, instead, add the rankings in each category to see if that helps clear things up:

    6-Ol Donyo (1+6= 7)
    7-Saturday Nthe Park (2+7= 9)
    5-Girl Code (3+5= 8)
    2-Flash Forward (4+3= 7)
    3-Ruby Lips (5+4= 9)
    4-Toasting (6+1= 7)
    1-Let Me Entertain U (7+2= 9)

    It does. Ol Donyo, Flash Forward and Toasting are all tied for the best overall ranking (7) and, thus, using median past odds as the tie-breaker, the former would be the play, with Flash Forward the second choice and Toasting the third selection.

    The race finished 6-2-7, with Ol Donyo paying a generous $16.40 to win and the Ol Donyo-Flash Forward $2 exacta returning $37.40.

    Give this method a try on some races this weekend and see what you think—it’s fun, easy… and, at least on Friday at Belmont Park, profitable.

    Pace Profile Play of the Week

    (Click on image to enlarge)

    Both my Pace Profile Report and Win Factor Report list Triple A. Rating as a vulnerable favorite, so I’ll try to beat him in both the win pool and the exotics. The horse I like the most is 4-SAILOR GULLY, a six-year-old gelding making just his second start since Sept. 14, 2011. Races at today’s distance (5 ½ furlongs) at Penn National are typically won by speed horses (surprise, surprise) and Sailor Gully may be the quickest of the quick. The son of Stormy Atlantic earned a -11 early speed ration (ESR) in his comeback race and held on well to finish third — on the turf, a surface that is most kind to horses with a late kick. The 70-day layoff since that race concerns me, but trainer Michael Pappada is top-notch, especially with horses dropping in class off of a good effort (40 percent wins in 15 tries).

    I’m also intrigued by 7-SMALL GIANT, who was claimed back by trainer David Wells for $6,250 after he lost him (via the claim box) for $4,000 to conditioner John Locke on Aug. 1. Small Giant has great tactical speed and has faced — and beaten — tougher in the past.

    Suggested Play(s): EXACTA 4,7 with 1,3,4,7.