Eliminating the Non-Contenders in the Breeders’ Cup
If you’re
like me, handicapping the Breeders’ Cup races is like judging the Miss
Universe Pageant.
Ultimately, all the contestants are above average in the looks department, they
all want world peace and they all seem incredibly happy.
In other
words, as is the case with the Breeders' Cup events, there are few, if any, glaring toss-outs.
Yet,
unless one’s betting strategy entails wagering on every horse in every
Breeders’ Cup race — which has produced a surprisingly decent -5.2 percent ROI
since 1997, by the way — one must find a way to eliminate certain entrants... without
any weeping and/or gnashing of teeth.
Well, like
Billy Swan, I can help.
Using my
database of BC results from 1997 to 2012, I found some angles that one can use
to instantly eliminate horses from further consideration, thereby saving time and aspirin:
1. Discard any horse that last raced on a dirt or
all-weather surface if today’s race is on turf or that last raced over the lawn if today’s race is on the dirt.
The Stats (since 1997): Six
winners in 161 attempts, with a 0.44 impact value (IV) and a 0.56 odds-based
impact value (OBIV).
2. In routes (races of one mile or greater), toss any horse
that last competed at six furlongs or less.
The Stats: Two winners in 33
attempts (including Beholder last year), with a 0.68 IV and a 0.64 OBIV.
3. Eliminate any horse with a median late speed ration
(LSR) of -20 or less*.
The Stats: Zero winners in 34 attempts.
The Stats: Zero winners in 34 attempts.
4. Reject any horse whose last-race form rating was less
than 20 percent*.
The Stats: Four winners in 119 attempts, 0.39 IV and a 0.59 OBIV.
5. Toss any horse trained by Aidan O’Brien that is running
on dirt.
The Stats: This is no knock
on O’Brien, whose overall BC record is impeccable (seven winners in 81 tries
with a 1.01 IV). However, there is a clear distinction between the veteran
conditioner’s starters on dirt (0.41 IV, 0.39 OBIV) and his starters on
all-weather or turf (1.34 IV, 0.75 OBIV).
6. In the juvenile turf events, don’t consider any horse
with a Brisnet Turf Pedigree rating** of less than 110.
The Stats: One winner
(Maram, 2008 Juvenile Fillies Turf) in 59 tries, with a 0.22 IV and a 0.24
OBIV.
7. In dirt races, avoid win bets on horses with an “S”
style rating** (these types do finish in the money a fair amount of the time).
The Stats: Seven winners in
138 attempts, 0.59 IV, 0.57 OBIV.
Hopefully this will help you avoid a few losers and reduce your handicapping time on Breeders’ Cup Day.
For more
great stats like the ones above, be sure to check out my 2013 Breeders’ Cup
Betting Guide available at Brisnet.com/bc and my 2013 Breeders’ Cup Trainers
Guide available at SimonSpeedRations.com/products.
* This number can be found in my Pace Profile Report available prior to the Breeders’ Cup via Brisnet.com or SimonSpeedRations.com.
** This rating can be found in the Brisnet past
performances available at Brisnet.com.
8 comments:
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By definition, the Breeders’ Cup is a championship event, with the best horses in each division running against one another. I need thesis defense presentation on time now.Therefore, I’m going to focus on the best horses in each race and eliminate the “non-contenders” before making a selection.
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