Showing posts with label Aidan O'Brien. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Aidan O'Brien. Show all posts

  • Eliminating the Non-Contenders in the Breeders’ Cup

    POSTED Oct 24, 2013 By Derek Simon
    If you’re like me, handicapping the Breeders’ Cup races is like judging the Miss Universe Pageant. Ultimately, all the contestants are above average in the looks department, they all want world peace and they all seem incredibly happy.

    In other words, as is the case with the Breeders' Cup events, there are few, if any, glaring toss-outs.

    Yet, unless one’s betting strategy entails wagering on every horse in every Breeders’ Cup race — which has produced a surprisingly decent -5.2 percent ROI since 1997, by the way — one must find a way to eliminate certain entrants... without any weeping and/or gnashing of teeth.

    Well, like Billy Swan, I can help.

    Using my database of BC results from 1997 to 2012, I found some angles that one can use to instantly eliminate horses from further consideration, thereby saving time and aspirin:

    1. Discard any horse that last raced on a dirt or all-weather surface if today’s race is on turf or that last raced over the lawn if today’s race is on the dirt.

    The Stats (since 1997): Six winners in 161 attempts, with a 0.44 impact value (IV) and a 0.56 odds-based impact value (OBIV).

    2. In routes (races of one mile or greater), toss any horse that last competed at six furlongs or less.

    The Stats: Two winners in 33 attempts (including Beholder last year), with a 0.68 IV and a 0.64 OBIV.

    3. Eliminate any horse with a median late speed ration (LSR) of -20 or less*.

    The Stats: Zero winners in 34 attempts.

    4. Reject any horse whose last-race form rating was less than 20 percent*.

    The Stats: Four winners in 119 attempts, 0.39 IV and a 0.59 OBIV.

    5. Toss any horse trained by Aidan O’Brien that is running on dirt.

    The Stats: This is no knock on O’Brien, whose overall BC record is impeccable (seven winners in 81 tries with a 1.01 IV). However, there is a clear distinction between the veteran conditioner’s starters on dirt (0.41 IV, 0.39 OBIV) and his starters on all-weather or turf (1.34 IV, 0.75 OBIV).

    6. In the juvenile turf events, don’t consider any horse with a Brisnet Turf Pedigree rating** of less than 110.

    The Stats: One winner (Maram, 2008 Juvenile Fillies Turf) in 59 tries, with a 0.22 IV and a 0.24 OBIV.

    7. In dirt races, avoid win bets on horses with an “S” style rating** (these types do finish in the money a fair amount of the time).

    The Stats: Seven winners in 138 attempts, 0.59 IV, 0.57 OBIV.

    Hopefully this will help you avoid a few losers and reduce your handicapping time on Breeders’ Cup Day.

    For more great stats like the ones above, be sure to check out my 2013 Breeders’ Cup Betting Guide available at Brisnet.com/bc and my 2013 Breeders’ Cup Trainers Guide available at SimonSpeedRations.com/products.




     * This number can be found in my Pace Profile Report available prior to the Breeders’ Cup via Brisnet.com or SimonSpeedRations.com.

    ** This rating can be found in the Brisnet past performances available at Brisnet.com.


  • Most likely winners of a Breeders' Cup race

    POSTED Jul 16, 2012 By Unknown
    You know it's a slow weekend at the races when your review leads off with the Breeders' Cup Marathon division, but so it goes in the final days leading up to the Saratoga and Del Mar meetings.


    Redeemed is a suitable topic to kick off this week's TCI, however, because he also kicks off my list of Top Four most likely Breeders' Cup winners. This is not a list of who I think is the best horses in training, who will win Horse of the Year, or any of that. This is a list of who I think are the most likely winners of their respective Breeders' Cup races. Another way to look at it is, who are the most deserving favorites in Breeders' Cup races?

    The most likely winner of a Breeders' Cup race is Reedemed in the Breeders' Cup Marathon. His Greenwood Cup victory marked his third consecutive triumph, and all three have come with BRIS speed ratings of at least 102. The Marathon has not been kind to favorites in its short history, but Redeemed looks like a true star in a division that usually lacks them.


    #2 on the list is Groupie Doll, a two-time Grade 1 winner already this year who defeated defending Filly and Mare Sprint winner and eventual Princess Rooney winner Musical Romance already this year. Any repeat of her performances at either Keeneland and Churchill makes her a winner in November, and nothing we saw in the A Gleam would challenge her either.

    #3 Executive Privilege has the looks of a two-year-old Baffert superstar on par with a Silverbulletday or Indian Blessing. I.e., the Racing Hall of Fame trainer knows how to keep these juveniles firing their best shots, and sweeping the Debutante, Oak Leaf, and Breeders' Cup certainly seems possible.

    I'll take a little creative license with my #4 slot and call it for either Camelot or St. Nicholas Abbey in the Breeders' Cup Turf. St. Nicholas Abbey already won this race last year and has come back strong this year, but his Ballydoyle stablemate would probably be 1-to-2 in the Turf and #1 on this list if he decides to come over. So with the uncertainty I'll rank the Aidan O'Brien-trained duo fourth.

    I'll expand the list as the year goes on, and we have a better sense of which horses are pointing where. One thing this list does not reward is contentious divisions since an evenly matched group makes it more difficult to definitively select a winner. The Classic contenders, for instance, are better than any horses on this list with the exception of O'Brien's duo, but to say that Game On Dude (who I ranked #1 on my America's Best Racing poll) is a more likely winner of the Classic than Redeemed is in the Marathon seems folly to me.