• The Truth about Losing Streaks

    POSTED Dec 5, 2013
    It is, perhaps, one of the great mysteries of the world. No, I’m not talking about Donald Trump’s hair or Miley Cyrus’ belief that she is sexy. I’m talking about losing streaks in betting.

    All of us except those who sell “locks of the week” (those guys are the best handicappers in the whole wide world) have experienced them: prolonged periods of loser after loser — like speed dating at a Star Trek convention.

    I would like to say that handicappers can control these series of unfortunate events, but, sadly, racetrack gamblers in particular must simply learn to minimize the pain… or risk being consumed by it. 

    Racing is not sports betting. In a typical point-spread play, a bettor has a 50 percent chance of winning and a 50 percent chance of losing, with the house keeping a 9.1 percent vigorish for facilitating the play. 

    In pari-mutuel  wagering, there is almost always more than two betting options — except in off-the-turf events at Aqueduct and Parx — and the”vig”, or takeout, is in the 17-20 percent range on straight (win, place, show) wagers and in the 20-30 percent range on exotic bets. Hence, a bettor’s success rate and winning payoff are both negatively affected. 

    What this means, of course, is a greater probability of long losing streaks — even if one’s overall winning percentage is relatively high.

    Take, for example, my own spot plays in the latter half of November. From Nov. 16-30, I offered my best method and angle picks to those who purchased one of the report packages offered at my Web site and, all in all, it was a successful promotion.
     

    During the two weeks, I had 67 total plays, of which 48 met my fair odds (when stipulated). The results are below:

    All Selections: 67
    Winners: 30
    Win Rate: 44.8%
    Return: $151.10
    ROI: +12.76%

    Qualified Selections: 48
    Winners: 20
    Win Rate: 41.7%
    Return: $115.60
    ROI: +20.42%

    Click HERE to see a day-by-day listing of all the selections.

    Pretty good, huh? Well check out these “lowlights” and, remember, we’re talking about positive overall stats and a mere two-week period in which the plays were offered:

    * One winner and a -83 percent ROI in my first 10 qualified picks (the selections were listed by track — in alphabetical, followed by race, order).

    * After a great day on Nov. 23 (3-of-4, +127.5 percent ROI), I went 1-for-10, with a teeth-grinding five second-place finishes over the next six days.

    So, in 14 days — 14 days! — I experienced two 1-for-10 skeins, despite a 41.7 percent winning average on the whole.


    And you want to know something really amazing (if you don’t, please just play along)? These results practically mirrored another two-week promotion I did in September.


    Take a look at the digits:

    All Selections: 83
    Winners: 37
    Win Rate: 44.6%
    Return: $183.20
    ROI: +10.36%

    Note: There was one off-the-turf race which did not count in the totals.

    Qualified Selections: 56
    Winners: 23
    Win Rate: 41.1%
    Return: $136.60
    ROI: +21.96%

    Click HERE to see a day-by-day listing of all the selections.

    Once again, I present the “lowlights:”

    * Starting with the 8th race at Assiniboia Downs on Sept. 22 through Sept. 27, I cashed once in 18 bets (on contenders that met or exceeded my fair odds).

    * Minus Saturday, Sept. 28, my win rate would have stood at 33 percent and my ROI would have checked in at a meager 1.67 percent.

    The point that I’m attempting to make here is that, even with a relatively healthy hit rate (41.3 percent among the two promotions), losing streaks are the norm, rather than the exception.

    This is true, perhaps to a lesser degree, in other sports as well. In the Denver Broncos first game of the season, Peyton Manning completed 27 of 42 pass attempts for 462 yards and an NFL record-tying seven touchdown passes. Yet, he started that game 1-for-4 and also had a 0-for-4 streak and a stretch where he was just 2-of-7… which brings me to part II of this treatise: the “gambler’s fallacy.”

    The gambler’s fallacy is the belief among some bettors that their odds of winning go up with each successive loss. This is sometimes called the “Monte Carlo fallacy” based on an incident that occurred at the Monte Carlo Casino.

    The story goes that on August 18, 1913, at a roulette wheel inside the famous casino, the color black came up a record twenty-six times in a row. According to reports, the Casino made millions of francs that day as players doubled and tripled their stake on red at various points during the run — spurred on by the fallacious notion that it was “due.”

    To show the absurdity of this belief, I conducted a little test. I simulated 50,000 coin flips and recorded the results overall, as well as the results after five consecutive “tails” and 10 consecutive “tails.”

    The outcome of my experiment was as follows:


    TOTALS
    Heads: 25,038 (50.1%)
    Tails: 24,962 (49.9%)

    AFTER 5 CONSECUTIVE “TAILS”
    Heads: 797 (51.1%)
    Tails: 763 (48.9%)

    AFTER 10 CONSECUTIVE “TAILS”
    Heads: 22 (48.9%)
    Tails: 23 (51.1%)

    As you can see, there is simply nothing to the idea that one’s winning chances go up — or down, for that matter — based on previous results. Once an incident rate or success rate (whatever one wishes to call it) has been established, each event is independent of any preceding or proceeding event. In other words, the flip of a (fair) coin is always a 50-50 proposition.

    So what does all this teach us? Three things, I think:

    1) Racetrack gamblers should focus on managing, rather than eliminating, losing streaks.

    2) Each bet should be made independent of the last. In other words, no doubling up in the 8th race because your “sure thing” in the 7th lost its jockey at the gate. (Toward this end, it is wise to map out one’s wagers before the races.)

    3) Don’t play/pass races arbitrarily; either you have an edge or you don’t. And if you don’t know your edge, it’s safe to assume you don’t have one.
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    There are so many popular ringtones that you can tell which phone brand it belongs to just by hearing it, Nokia's "legendary" ringtone or an iPhone ringtone called Marimba are some of them. Currently, smartphone users can easily choose their favorite audio tracks to make ringtones. However, you may not know, back when the first phones were created, many amazing studies on how humans perceive sound were done to create a reasonable ringtone. thought. More interestingly, this fact is also related to the "instant play" ringtones of the iPhone created.
    First of all, we need to clarify that the original purpose of ringtones is to easily attract attention, make users stop what they are doing and pick up the phone. To this end, researchers at Bell Laboratories have conducted numerous studies which show that an ideal beltonen samsung should have a tone range between 2 KHz and 4 KHz, with increasing loudness over time. about 96 dB between 3 and 5 seconds per ring.

    According to Forbes, this basic principle was applied when Apple made the first ringtones for the iPhone. Accordingly, many sources believe that Steve Jobs did not like Nokia ringtones and he wanted more perfect ringtones for his phone. At that time, Steve Jobs was faced with two choices, either take the time to sign contracts with record labels for the perfect ringtone, or release an iPhone with many different ringtones. And that's how the 25-style ringtone set was on the first iPhone.
    There are so many popular ringtones that you can tell which phone brand it belongs to just by hearing it, Nokia's "legendary" ringtone or an iPhone ringtone called Marimba are some of them. Currently, smartphone users can easily choose their favorite audio tracks to make ringtones. However, you may not know, back when the first phones were created, many amazing studies on how humans perceive sound were done to create a reasonable ringtone. thought. More interestingly, this fact is also related to the "instant play" ringtones of the iPhone created.

    The "legendary" ringtone that many people know of Nokia is hated by Steve Jobs.

    First of all, we need to clarify that the original purpose of ringtones is to easily attract attention, make users stop what they are doing and pick up the phone. To this end, researchers at Bell Laboratories have conducted numerous studies which show that an ideal ringtone should have a tone range between 2 KHz and 4 KHz, with increasing loudness over time. about 96 dB between 3 and 5 seconds per ring.

    Marimba ringtones so far are listed in the Classic section in the Sound section of the Settings app on iPhone.

    According to Forbes, this basic principle was applied when Apple made the first ringtones for the iPhone. Accordingly, many sources believe that Steve Jobs did not like Nokia ringtones and he wanted more perfect ringtones for his phone. At that time, Steve Jobs was faced whatsapp benachrichtigungston with two choices, either take the time to sign contracts with record labels for the perfect ringtone, or release an iPhone with many different ringtones. And that's how the 25-style ringtone set was on the first iPhone.

    The remix of the iPhone ringtone caused a fever for a while.

    You may not know, the person who helped make the first 25 ringtones (including Marimba) is Dr. Gerhard Lengeling, an audio expert with a key role in Apple's high-quality audio related software. And by now, you probably understand why Marimba was chosen as the default ringtone on iPhone: It met all the requirements for a perfect ringtone from the aforementioned Bell Laboratories research.

    jack said...

    Nokia ringtones were once the pride of users. Although Nokia has changed hands, ringtones are something that will forever remain unchanged in the hearts of Nokia fans. The ringtone "Nokia Tune" (Nokia Tune) is actually based on a 19th century guitar song called "Gran Vals" from a Spanish musician, Francisco Tarrega. Nokia Tune was originally named "Grande Valse" on Nokia phones but was changed to "Nokia Tune" in 1998 when Nokia's name was known all over the world and people only remember Nokia Tune about it. after.
    In the field of digital communication, a ringtone is a digital audio file used exclusively for mobile phones, smartphones, etc. Like the ring on a traditional landline phone, the mobile device can be configured to play back the user's digital ringtone when a call comes in. On modern mobile phones, ringtones can be especially useful when you assign certain music or sound patterns to each person - you can instantly identify who is calling by listening!

    Ringtones were originally built into the first cell phones to allow users to personalize the sound their phone made with an incoming call. However, the factory preset sounds were limited in quantity and no alternative sounds were available in the market at the time of purchase. The first time ringtone files were available for people to import into their phones starting in 1998 when Vesa-Matti "Vesku" Paananen had a vision to establish a ringtone business; users can now access many other alternative sounds to replace the factory preset sounds on their phones.

    Types of Ringtones
    Over the years, the complexity of ringtones has evolved from simple strings of notes into actual recordings. Currently, there are three types of ringtone forms available, which are:

    Anonymous said...

    Monophonic - this is the first type of ringtone that appeared. As the name would suggest, only one tune (or note) can be played at any time. Therefore, a mono ringtone is the simplest type available and the most compatible form.
    Polyphonic - the second type of ringtone developed that is polyphonic capable of playing multiple notes and different instruments at the same time. This type of ringtone was originally based on MIDI (Instrument Digital Interface) - a communication protocol for computers and electronic musical instruments that helps them communicate with each other. The technology behind polyphonic ringtones is ultimately further improved to allow soundbanks (or SoundFonts) to be used - this effectively enhances the sound by using synthetic data attempting to emulate a single music. real tool.
    Realtones - sometimes called ringtones, Mastertons or even Superphonics, this type is the actual recording. It is usually stored in a common digital audio format such as MP3 or AAC. This has made it easy for anyone to use the digital music library to create their own custom ringtones.
    Popular Audio Formats for Realtones
    Commonly used audio formats for Realtones include:

    MP3 - the most common format supported by mobile devices. Files in this format have the .MP3 file extension.
    AAC - this is a lossy audio format commonly used by iPhones (and some non-Apple phones). Realtones in this format can be identified with the .M4a or .M4r file extension.
    OGG Vorbis - usually the preferred format for smartphones using the Android operating system. The .OGG file extension is used for this container format.
    Source of Realtones
    Many people choose to create their own ringtones these days rather than using online ringtone sites that often charge per download. There are several ways you can source ringtones for free (or even create your own) without spending money. Some of the ways you can achieve this are:

    Free and Legal Ringtone Sites - there are thousands of ringtone sites on the Internet that offer free mobile phone content like: videos, games, software, etc. However, many sites often offer illegal downloads. For sites that provide legit cell phone ringtones, be sure to read this Top Free Ringtone Sites Guide for more information.
    Software media players - some software media players can create ringtones directly from your music library. iTunes, for example, can be used to do this using a simple hack. For more information on how it works, read our Guide to Making Free Ringtones for Your iPhone.
    Audio editor - using a free audio editing program you can save a short loop from a full length song, ideal for ringtones. Software applications of this type are usually capable of saving in a variety of audio formats suitable for most mobile phones. To learn how to do this, read our Audacity Tutorial to Create Ringtones.
    Audio File Splitter - for something easier to use, an audio file splitter might be a better choice if you don't want to use a full-blown audio editor. Sometimes called an MP3 file splitter, this type of software can be used to quickly create ringtones from your existing music library.

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