• 2014 Kentucky Derby Analysis

    POSTED Apr 30, 2014 By Derek Simon

    Name Comments
    California Chrome Pros: Top last-race BSF (4-25, +68% ROI since '92). Best overall LSRs. Won last race by 5+ lengths.
    6-1 fair odds Cons: Typically doesn't gain ground on the turn; needs clean trip. Sire (Lucky Pulpit) has 6.40 AWD.
    Vicar's In Trouble Pros: Big move on the turn in the Risen Star. 
    30-1 fair odds Cons: Weak final prep (2.5 Key Race Rating), big speed figure improvement last time makes him a bounce candidate, 5.00 Dosage Index and trainer Mike Maker has 0.36 IV in the Kentucky Derby.
    Dance With Fate Pros: Solid juvenile base and good three-year-old form.
    30-1 fair odds Cons: Sprint sire (6.33 AWD) and he lost position/ground from the first- to second-call last time (29-0-2-0 since 1992). Runs like a turf/AWS specialist.
    Wicked Strong Pros: Improving LSRs, strong pedigree.
    12-1 fair odds Cons: Brisnet speed figure in the Wood was 14 points superior to his next-best number.
    Samraat Pros: Great juvenile form, very game and he's learned to rate.
    10-1 fair odds Cons: No Brisnet speed figure progression this year.
    Danza Pros: His performance in the Arkansas Derby was outstanding, featuring a negative ESR and a positive Pace Profile (10-of-98, +31.12% ROI since '92). He's also working well.
    20-1 fair odds Cons: Most recent BSF 17 points superior to previous figure; greater than 15-1 in final prep (60-0-2-3 since '92); Todd Pletcher's Derby charges tend to be underlays.
    Hoppertunity Pros: Gradual improvement and a trainer (Bob Baffert) with a stellar record in the Run for the Roses (1.44 IV).
    12-1 fair odds Cons: "The Curse of Apollo" — son of Any Given Saturday didn't race as a two-year-old. Kind of a plodder, doesn't accelerate quickly.
    Intense Holiday Pros: Shows quick acceleration and is typically in the mix. May have been compromised by being closer to the pace last time.
    20-1 fair odds Cons: Louisiana Derby field of dubious quality (2.5 KRR). Has only two career wins — neither in Grade I company.
    Wildcat Red Pros: Tough to get by in the stretch, with one win and two losses by a neck or less.
    50-1 fair odds Cons: If it looks like a sprinter and runs like a sprinter, it's a sprinter. Wildcat Red has a 5.67 DI and unratable speed — not the ideal combination to get 10 furlongs on the first Saturday in May.
    We Miss Artie Pros: He's gained significant position and ground on the turn in each of his last two starts and recorded a positive Pace Profile in the Spiral.
    20-1 fair odds Cons: most recent BSF 13 points superior to previous figure; Todd Pletcher's Derby charges underperform their Derby odds 77% of the time (8-27, 0.80 IV).
    Ride On Curlin Pros: Responded well after a rough trip last time and is reunited with Calvin Borel in Louisville.
    25-1 fair odds Cons: Arkansas Derby had a 2.7 KRR and son of Curlin recorded his best BSF in a 5 1/2-furlong sprint at ELP.
    Chitu Pros: Top trainer and a game effort in the Grade II Robert B. Lewis.
    50-1 fair odds Cons: Like Wildcat Red, this guy looks like an unbridled sprinter. Hard to imagine him getting the kind of trip he desires.
    Tapiture Pros: Excellent juvenile form and he showed the ability to rate in the grade II Rebel.
    20-1 fair odds Cons: Last-race Form Rating less than 33% (61-0-2-1 since 1992) and trainer Steve Asmussen underperforms the tote board 83% of the time (0.64 IV) in America's greatest horse race.
    General A Rod Pros: Very game, fast and possesses surprisingly good route breeding.
    15-1 fair odds Cons: Trainer Mike Maker has been awful in the Derby and "General" has 8 Quirin speed points (Big Brown only winner since 2000).
    Medal Count Pros: Trainer Dale Romans' charges have outrun their odds in three of his four Derby tries —  and two of those three (Paddy O'Prado and Dullahan) looked an awful lot like this guy.
    15-1 fair odds Cons: Like Dullahan, Medal Count does most of his running late, which might leave the son of Dynaformer with too much to do in the stretch.
    Candy Boy Pros: Steady improvement, ability to accelerate quickly mid-race and likely value, thanks to a too-close-to-the-pace effort in the SA Derby that led to an 8 3/4-length defeat by California Chrome.
    8-1 fair odds Cons: Tactics aside, Candy Boy's most recent effort was hardly encouraging. 
    Uncle Sigh Pros: Raced well prior to throwing a clunker in the Wood.
    75-1 fair odds Cons: Poor form and the apparent inability to rate makes this guy a very dubious proposition.
    Vinceremos Pros: Well-bred WinStar colt.
    99-1 fair odds Cons: He was beaten 10+ lengths in his last race (39-0-1-0 over the past 22 years) and, even if one were to look past that debacle, the son of Pioneerof the Nile looks too slow.
    Harry's Holiday Pros: Good effort in the Spiral.
    99-1 fair odds Cons: Atrocious recent form and his best race came in an ungraded sprint stakes at Turfway Park.
    Commanding Curve Pros: Consistent improvement and the ability to move on the turn make him a threat. Trainer Dallas Stewart (2.03 IV in the Derby) adds to the appeal.
    25-1 fair odds Cons: Only one win — a maiden affair at Churchill Downs — to his credit and a +2 ESR last time (3-of-103, -56% ROI since 1992).

    • 201 comments:

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    joe said...

    Delve into the heart of the Kentucky Derby with our comprehensive analysis. From the contenders and their pedigrees to jockeys, track conditions, and historical trends, our expert breakdown offers invaluable insights to help you navigate one of the most prestigious events in horse racing. Whether you're a seasoned bettor or a casual observer, our in-depth analysis provides a deeper understanding of the strategies, challenges, and triumphs that shape this iconic race

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