| Name |
Comments |
| California
Chrome |
Pros: |
Top last-race BSF (4-25, +68%
ROI since '92). Best overall LSRs. Won last race by 5+ lengths. |
| 6-1 fair
odds |
Cons: |
Typically doesn't gain ground on
the turn; needs clean trip. Sire (Lucky Pulpit) has 6.40 AWD. |
| Vicar's
In Trouble |
Pros: |
Big move on the turn in the
Risen Star. |
| 30-1
fair odds |
Cons: |
Weak final prep (2.5 Key Race
Rating), big speed figure improvement last time makes him a bounce candidate,
5.00 Dosage Index and trainer Mike Maker has 0.36 IV in the Kentucky Derby. |
| Dance
With Fate |
Pros: |
Solid juvenile base and good
three-year-old form. |
| 30-1
fair odds |
Cons: |
Sprint sire (6.33 AWD) and he
lost position/ground from the first- to second-call last time (29-0-2-0 since
1992). Runs like a turf/AWS specialist. |
| Wicked
Strong |
Pros: |
Improving LSRs, strong pedigree. |
| 12-1
fair odds |
Cons: |
Brisnet speed figure in the Wood
was 14 points superior to his next-best number. |
| Samraat |
Pros: |
Great juvenile form, very game and he's learned to rate. |
| 10-1
fair odds |
Cons: |
No Brisnet speed figure
progression this year. |
| Danza |
Pros: |
His performance in the Arkansas
Derby was outstanding, featuring a negative ESR and a positive Pace Profile
(10-of-98, +31.12% ROI since '92). He's also working well. |
| 20-1
fair odds |
Cons: |
Most recent BSF 17 points
superior to previous figure; greater than 15-1 in final prep (60-0-2-3 since
'92); Todd Pletcher's Derby charges tend to be underlays. |
| Hoppertunity |
Pros: |
Gradual improvement and a
trainer (Bob Baffert) with a stellar record in the Run for the Roses (1.44
IV). |
| 12-1
fair odds |
Cons: |
"The Curse of Apollo"
— son of Any Given Saturday didn't race as a two-year-old. Kind of a plodder,
doesn't accelerate quickly. |
| Intense
Holiday |
Pros: |
Shows quick acceleration and is
typically in the mix. May have been compromised by being closer to the pace
last time. |
| 20-1
fair odds |
Cons: |
Louisiana Derby field of dubious
quality (2.5 KRR). Has only two career wins — neither in Grade I company. |
| Wildcat
Red |
Pros: |
Tough to get by in the stretch,
with one win and two losses by a neck or less. |
| 50-1
fair odds |
Cons: |
If it looks like a sprinter and
runs like a sprinter, it's a sprinter. Wildcat Red has a 5.67 DI and
unratable speed — not the ideal combination to get 10 furlongs on the first
Saturday in May. |
| We Miss
Artie |
Pros: |
He's gained significant position
and ground on the turn in each of his last two starts and recorded a positive
Pace Profile in the Spiral. |
| 20-1
fair odds |
Cons: |
most recent BSF 13 points
superior to previous figure; Todd Pletcher's Derby charges underperform their
Derby odds 77% of the time (8-27, 0.80 IV). |
| Ride On
Curlin |
Pros: |
Responded well after a rough
trip last time and is reunited with Calvin Borel in Louisville. |
| 25-1
fair odds |
Cons: |
Arkansas Derby had a 2.7 KRR and
son of Curlin recorded his best BSF in a 5 1/2-furlong sprint at ELP. |
| Chitu |
Pros: |
Top trainer and a game effort in
the Grade II Robert B. Lewis. |
| 50-1
fair odds |
Cons: |
Like Wildcat Red, this guy looks
like an unbridled sprinter. Hard to imagine him getting the kind of trip he
desires. |
| Tapiture |
Pros: |
Excellent juvenile form and he
showed the ability to rate in the grade II Rebel. |
| 20-1
fair odds |
Cons: |
Last-race Form Rating less than
33% (61-0-2-1 since 1992) and trainer Steve Asmussen underperforms the tote
board 83% of the time (0.64 IV) in America's greatest horse race. |
| General
A Rod |
Pros: |
Very game, fast and possesses
surprisingly good route breeding. |
| 15-1
fair odds |
Cons: |
Trainer Mike Maker has been
awful in the Derby and "General" has 8 Quirin speed points (Big
Brown only winner since 2000). |
| Medal
Count |
Pros: |
Trainer Dale Romans' charges
have outrun their odds in three of his four Derby tries — and two of those three (Paddy O'Prado and
Dullahan) looked an awful lot like this guy. |
| 15-1
fair odds |
Cons: |
Like Dullahan, Medal Count does
most of his running late, which might leave the son of Dynaformer with too
much to do in the stretch. |
| Candy
Boy |
Pros: |
Steady improvement, ability to
accelerate quickly mid-race and likely value, thanks to a
too-close-to-the-pace effort in the SA Derby that led to an 8 3/4-length
defeat by California Chrome. |
| 8-1 fair
odds |
Cons: |
Tactics aside, Candy Boy's most
recent effort was hardly encouraging. |
| Uncle
Sigh |
Pros: |
Raced well prior to throwing a
clunker in the Wood. |
| 75-1
fair odds |
Cons: |
Poor form and the apparent
inability to rate makes this guy a very dubious proposition. |
| Vinceremos |
Pros: |
Well-bred WinStar colt. |
| 99-1
fair odds |
Cons: |
He was beaten 10+ lengths in his
last race (39-0-1-0 over the past 22 years) and, even if one were to look
past that debacle, the son of Pioneerof the Nile looks too slow. |
| Harry's
Holiday |
Pros: |
Good effort in the Spiral. |
| 99-1
fair odds |
Cons: |
Atrocious recent form and his
best race came in an ungraded sprint stakes at Turfway Park. |
| Commanding
Curve |
Pros: |
Consistent improvement and the
ability to move on the turn make him a threat. Trainer Dallas Stewart (2.03
IV in the Derby) adds to the appeal. |
| 25-1
fair odds |
Cons: |
Only one win — a maiden affair
at Churchill Downs — to his credit and a +2 ESR last time (3-of-103, -56% ROI
since 1992). |
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