| Name |
Comments |
| California
Chrome |
Pros: |
Top last-race BSF (4-25, +68%
ROI since '92). Best overall LSRs. Won last race by 5+ lengths. |
| 6-1 fair
odds |
Cons: |
Typically doesn't gain ground on
the turn; needs clean trip. Sire (Lucky Pulpit) has 6.40 AWD. |
| Vicar's
In Trouble |
Pros: |
Big move on the turn in the
Risen Star. |
| 30-1
fair odds |
Cons: |
Weak final prep (2.5 Key Race
Rating), big speed figure improvement last time makes him a bounce candidate,
5.00 Dosage Index and trainer Mike Maker has 0.36 IV in the Kentucky Derby. |
| Dance
With Fate |
Pros: |
Solid juvenile base and good
three-year-old form. |
| 30-1
fair odds |
Cons: |
Sprint sire (6.33 AWD) and he
lost position/ground from the first- to second-call last time (29-0-2-0 since
1992). Runs like a turf/AWS specialist. |
| Wicked
Strong |
Pros: |
Improving LSRs, strong pedigree. |
| 12-1
fair odds |
Cons: |
Brisnet speed figure in the Wood
was 14 points superior to his next-best number. |
| Samraat |
Pros: |
Great juvenile form, very game and he's learned to rate. |
| 10-1
fair odds |
Cons: |
No Brisnet speed figure
progression this year. |
| Danza |
Pros: |
His performance in the Arkansas
Derby was outstanding, featuring a negative ESR and a positive Pace Profile
(10-of-98, +31.12% ROI since '92). He's also working well. |
| 20-1
fair odds |
Cons: |
Most recent BSF 17 points
superior to previous figure; greater than 15-1 in final prep (60-0-2-3 since
'92); Todd Pletcher's Derby charges tend to be underlays. |
| Hoppertunity |
Pros: |
Gradual improvement and a
trainer (Bob Baffert) with a stellar record in the Run for the Roses (1.44
IV). |
| 12-1
fair odds |
Cons: |
"The Curse of Apollo"
— son of Any Given Saturday didn't race as a two-year-old. Kind of a plodder,
doesn't accelerate quickly. |
| Intense
Holiday |
Pros: |
Shows quick acceleration and is
typically in the mix. May have been compromised by being closer to the pace
last time. |
| 20-1
fair odds |
Cons: |
Louisiana Derby field of dubious
quality (2.5 KRR). Has only two career wins — neither in Grade I company. |
| Wildcat
Red |
Pros: |
Tough to get by in the stretch,
with one win and two losses by a neck or less. |
| 50-1
fair odds |
Cons: |
If it looks like a sprinter and
runs like a sprinter, it's a sprinter. Wildcat Red has a 5.67 DI and
unratable speed — not the ideal combination to get 10 furlongs on the first
Saturday in May. |
| We Miss
Artie |
Pros: |
He's gained significant position
and ground on the turn in each of his last two starts and recorded a positive
Pace Profile in the Spiral. |
| 20-1
fair odds |
Cons: |
most recent BSF 13 points
superior to previous figure; Todd Pletcher's Derby charges underperform their
Derby odds 77% of the time (8-27, 0.80 IV). |
| Ride On
Curlin |
Pros: |
Responded well after a rough
trip last time and is reunited with Calvin Borel in Louisville. |
| 25-1
fair odds |
Cons: |
Arkansas Derby had a 2.7 KRR and
son of Curlin recorded his best BSF in a 5 1/2-furlong sprint at ELP. |
| Chitu |
Pros: |
Top trainer and a game effort in
the Grade II Robert B. Lewis. |
| 50-1
fair odds |
Cons: |
Like Wildcat Red, this guy looks
like an unbridled sprinter. Hard to imagine him getting the kind of trip he
desires. |
| Tapiture |
Pros: |
Excellent juvenile form and he
showed the ability to rate in the grade II Rebel. |
| 20-1
fair odds |
Cons: |
Last-race Form Rating less than
33% (61-0-2-1 since 1992) and trainer Steve Asmussen underperforms the tote
board 83% of the time (0.64 IV) in America's greatest horse race. |
| General
A Rod |
Pros: |
Very game, fast and possesses
surprisingly good route breeding. |
| 15-1
fair odds |
Cons: |
Trainer Mike Maker has been
awful in the Derby and "General" has 8 Quirin speed points (Big
Brown only winner since 2000). |
| Medal
Count |
Pros: |
Trainer Dale Romans' charges
have outrun their odds in three of his four Derby tries — and two of those three (Paddy O'Prado and
Dullahan) looked an awful lot like this guy. |
| 15-1
fair odds |
Cons: |
Like Dullahan, Medal Count does
most of his running late, which might leave the son of Dynaformer with too
much to do in the stretch. |
| Candy
Boy |
Pros: |
Steady improvement, ability to
accelerate quickly mid-race and likely value, thanks to a
too-close-to-the-pace effort in the SA Derby that led to an 8 3/4-length
defeat by California Chrome. |
| 8-1 fair
odds |
Cons: |
Tactics aside, Candy Boy's most
recent effort was hardly encouraging. |
| Uncle
Sigh |
Pros: |
Raced well prior to throwing a
clunker in the Wood. |
| 75-1
fair odds |
Cons: |
Poor form and the apparent
inability to rate makes this guy a very dubious proposition. |
| Vinceremos |
Pros: |
Well-bred WinStar colt. |
| 99-1
fair odds |
Cons: |
He was beaten 10+ lengths in his
last race (39-0-1-0 over the past 22 years) and, even if one were to look
past that debacle, the son of Pioneerof the Nile looks too slow. |
| Harry's
Holiday |
Pros: |
Good effort in the Spiral. |
| 99-1
fair odds |
Cons: |
Atrocious recent form and his
best race came in an ungraded sprint stakes at Turfway Park. |
| Commanding
Curve |
Pros: |
Consistent improvement and the
ability to move on the turn make him a threat. Trainer Dallas Stewart (2.03
IV in the Derby) adds to the appeal. |
| 25-1
fair odds |
Cons: |
Only one win — a maiden affair
at Churchill Downs — to his credit and a +2 ESR last time (3-of-103, -56% ROI
since 1992). |
205 comments:
«Oldest ‹Older 201 – 205 of 205Delve into the heart of the Kentucky Derby with our comprehensive analysis. From the contenders and their pedigrees to jockeys, track conditions, and historical trends, our expert breakdown offers invaluable insights to help you navigate one of the most prestigious events in horse racing. Whether you're a seasoned bettor or a casual observer, our in-depth analysis provides a deeper understanding of the strategies, challenges, and triumphs that shape this iconic race
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The 2014 Kentucky Derby was an exciting race, and California Chrome lived up to his reputation as the favorite by winning handily. The horse, who was trained by Art Sherman, showed exceptional speed and control, gaining ground in the closing stages to win by a wide margin. Victor Espinoza, the jockey, rode flawlessly, lining up California Chrome just right before he made his move at the top of the stretch. human trafficking
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