Showing posts with label Pennsylvania. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Pennsylvania. Show all posts

  • Too fast for a speed duel

    POSTED Sep 20, 2013 By Unknown
    When handicappers note that "there is a lot of speed in this race" what they most typically mean is that there are a lot of front-running types--that is a horse who likes to race on or near the front end.

     It is folly to think that a race loaded with front runners can't be won by a front runner. It's only an issue if those dynamics make logical contenders go faster than is prudent.

     The Gallant Bob Stakes on Saturday at Parx is a race that certainly has "a lot of speed" in it.

    Using the race summary that is a part of Brisnet.com's Ultimate Past Performances, we see that the Gallant Bob has five "E" types from 13 entrants, and eight sophomores with at least 5 Quirin Speed Points.

     As the image below illustrates, though, this is by no means a bad thing, as six-furlong races at Parx are won by "E" types 38% of the time and E/P types 36% of the time. All of eight entrants with at least 5 Quirin Speed Points are either an "E" or "E/P" type.

    So how fast can these horses go? The short answer to that is as fast as #2 Distinctiv Passion can go. Shipping from California and going turf to dirt for the Gallant Bob, Distinctiv Passion has been on the lead at the first and second call in each of his last seven races. In fact, the only time he hasn't made the lead was in his career debut--a maiden race won by eventual King's Bishop Stakes winner Capo Bastone.

    Black Hornet looks to be the only horse capable of going as fast as Distinctiv Passion early, and in fact has a higher last race pace figure than Distinctiv Passion. However, neither of those horses earned their numbers on dirt last time out, and Black Hornet has never raced on a fast surface.


    The only speed horse I think is capable of winning the Gallant Bob is Distinctiv Passion. He can lead them gate to wire, but no other horse is capable of doing so. If a horse tries to out run Distinctiv Passion early, he's unlikely to win that battle let alone the war, and if a speed horse takes back too much, then he's probably too far out of his element and vulnerable to a faster closer anyway.

    Clearly Now is the clear alternative if looking away from the speed, but I worry about taking a shorter price on him than Distinctiv Passion when A) Distinctiv Passion is faster, and B) Clearly Now is 122-pound highweight (Distinctiv Passion carries 115).

    Zeewat is the only other horse I could see using because I'd rather have a closer if trying to beat Distinctiv Passion than speed type.

    Wagering strategy: WPS on #2 Distinctiv Passion at odds of 5-to-1. If we don't get that price, I might go shopping in the place and show pools because combining 13 horses with Parx's big day could mean more of an even distribution than is warranted. I'd definitely play Clearly Now to show if he had less than 15% of that pool and Zeewat with less than 10%.

    I'd never play multiple horses to show or couple with across wager, so these are listed in my order of preference: Distinctiv Passion across at 5-to-1 or better, Clearly Now to show if less than 15% of the pool, or Zeewat to show if less than 10% of the pool.

    The Gallant Bob kicks off a Pick 3 that ends with a pair of $1-million races: The Cotillion and the Pennsylvania Derby. Close Hatches and Sweet Lulu are all you need in the Cotillion, and I think you can beat the Travers top two in the PA Derby, so if you go deep there and catch a price this could pay OK.

    For more on those two races (which also conclude an all-stakes Pick 4), check out the Triple Crown Insider video below

  • Stakes Overtures For ‘Jug’ Meet

    POSTED Sep 11, 2013 By Frank Cotolo

    It the weekend before America’s Pace—The Little Brown Jug—which takes place next Thursday at the Delaware, Ohio fair meet, which begins Sunday, Sept. 15. We will be covering the entire meet, though not from the track in Ohio, through blogs here, Twitter and the TwinSpires Facebook page. So stay tuned to the social network for weekday harness action,including the biggest programs of the short week, Wednesday, Sept. 18 (The Jugette) and Thursday, Sept. 19 (“Jug” day). 



    UPDATE -- H2W list below includes Sunday choices at Delaware, Ohio.
     
    Meanwhile, Friday, Sept. 13 could be lucky for us at the Meadows, where we cover Pennsylvania Sires Stakes (PASS) finals for sophomores. As well, Mohawk delivers big frosh finals with the William Wellwood for colt trotters and the Peaceful Way for the fillies.
     
    Plus, more live contenders from harness venues all over North America are projected in our exclusive horses to watch (H2W) list below.
     
    TwinSpires offers special bonuses for Hoosier Park throughout the harness meet. Check out the Hoosier details here. 
     
    Our featured Breeders Crown Countdown event this week is the Canadian Trotting Classic Final, with some of this season’s sensational glamour-boy trotters; for that analysis to help you with your wagering decisions, Go to Breeders Crown Countdown. 
     
    Keystone Classics  
     
    Pennsylvania-bred sophomores are treated to giant purses and the money spills over to fund PASS consolation events, too.
     
    In the filly trot championship (each champsionship race has a purses of $260,000), Coffeecake Hanover looms as the outside contender. With a 6-1 morning line we only hope will be a mirror of the last flash on the tote, “Coffeecake” could overtake the probable choices—Classic Martine, Mystery Woman and Frau Blucher (most likely in that order).
     
    The filly pace final leaves little evidence that Somwherovrarainbow will be beaten by any of these. Native Dream defeated her in a PASS leg in July but was 9-5 in that event. Since then, “Somwher” has gotten sharper and has beaten better. Niki Beach could make the place spot with some clearing (she was buried deep in the Shady Daisy).
     
    The glamour-boy trot finds one of our usual choices, Aperfectyankee, as the morning line choice. But there is no counting out Bluto, whose recent pair of miles presented brutal trips. Certainly he may be a bargain on the board and that would be a cue for us to lose support for Aperfectyankee, considering we were on him at 25-1, 21-1 and 14-1.
     
    The glamour-boy pace offers a strange morning line choice in Twilight Bonfire. Twice he completed an exacta at huge odds but he has not beaten many in this field. Though I would carefully measure the value on closing odds for Dedi’s Dragon, he appears to be in better shape right now than the lot of them. Lonewolf Currier has been suspiciously short of late, as has Martini Hanover, and without excuses we can excuse them from contention.
     
    PASS Consolations
     
    The soph-filly pace consolation is a great place for Aunt Caroline to romp over the probable choice, Scandalous Hanover. “Caroline” was dynamic in a Simcoe Stakes, second to the fabulous I Luv The Nitelife and doing it from the 8 hole at 75-1. Both of her stakes races ended in places and the Somebeachsomewhere filly is well placed here to win.
     
    The colt pace consolation may present a fine overlay in Normandy Invasion. Tossing out his Sept. 4 race, where he broke at the start and never became involved, he was spot on chasing two far better colts than appear in this group. The probable favorites are iffy at best, so this is more than a stab—if “Norm” stays flat he will be a major factor, if not the winner.
     
    The soph-colt trot presents an appearance by Hambo boy Creatine, winner of a Hambo elim (our Players Pool had him at 5-1). He had a great qualifier at The Red Mile before coming home and although Lindy’s Tru Grit has been hot, Creatine should be atop any exacta, including with “Grit,” the obvious second element.
     
    ‘Wellwood’ Winner
     
    The $365,000 William Wellwood Trot Final for frosh-colt trotters is on the Mohawk docket for Saturday, Sept. 14, as well as its sister event for fillies, the Peaceful Way.
     
    The green colt trotting division has a hero, we just have not heard enough about his prowess. Father Patrick is truly a giant young sidestepper. He has gone under the radar with all the hooplah about other divisional heroes this season but we truly cannot say enough about him. How he won his “Wellwood” elim from post 10 and shaking like Jell-O in the stretch while still trotting down the leader from a few lengths away is the trip of a champion.
     
    Father Patrick is already next year’s Hambletonian choice and trainer Jimmy Takter will be doing everything he can to be sure the colt’s transition to sophomore is as smooth as possible. So what is not to like about him in the Wellwood final? There is no smarter wagering move here than to key Father Patrick and work on some exactas and triactors. Just don’t play against him and have to pray for a miscue. If that is your strategy, pass the race.
     
    Give ‘Peace’ A Chance
     
    The filly trotters are featured in a $374,000 stakes event, the Peaceful Way, on Sept. 14 at Mohawk and due to some circumstances in elims, two top contenders won’t be there to race. Shake It Cerry, at 1-9, broke after the half and left competition. Grammas Girl, at 35-1, took advantage of the favorite’s break, to win. Riveting Rosie was the second choice to “Cerry” and finished third after breaking at the gate. Danica Hall beat the public choice (Demanding Sam) in round two. 
     
    Barring any breaking, Riviting Rosie may be the best to support in the final. Her comeback after the miscued start may have even beaten Cerry, had that one not broken. Exotics may be worth some investment here, too, using Toughs Legacy, who in elim two jumped at the start and made up 17 lengths once back on stride to finish third at 31-1.
     
    H2W Legend
     
    Review our horses-to-watch (H2W) choices and follow the wagering at the prescribed track. These are possible contenders we have judged from reviewing races.
     
    The horses’ names are listed beneath the name of the track after the date they will be racing. The race in which they are entered (R and race number) follows. If a + is in front of a horse’s name it means it is appearing on the list for the second (and last time) because it failed to win the first time it appeared. An “ae” signals the horse is entered but on the also-eligible list. Types of wagering on any of the H2W listed horses are based on your judgment. If you have any questions, email us at TwinSpires. 
     
    H2W
     
    Delaware, Ohio
    9/15/13, Mannerism R1; Don't Muff It Up R2; Bella Fever R3; Pointe De Vue R5; Milliron Pete R6; Supreme Day R7; Prakasmakesperfect R12; Crown Time Keeper R13; Like A Dream R14

    Freehold
    9/14/13, Saywhatuneedtosay R2; Newsam R 4; Leg Up R5; Useful Hanover R9; Allstar Blues R11
     
    Maywood
    9/6/13, +Anescape 1e R13  
     
    Meadows
    9/13/13, All Heart Gal R1; Lady Ashlyn R2; Bohemian Spell R3; Keystone Fling R11 
     
    Vernon
     
    9/13/13, +Steuben Huckleberi R9    
    9/14/13, Touch Of The Past R3; Skyway Poncho R8
     
    Ray Cotolo contributed to this edition.