Showing posts with label TCI. Show all posts
Showing posts with label TCI. Show all posts

  • Too fast for a speed duel

    POSTED Sep 20, 2013 By Unknown
    When handicappers note that "there is a lot of speed in this race" what they most typically mean is that there are a lot of front-running types--that is a horse who likes to race on or near the front end.

     It is folly to think that a race loaded with front runners can't be won by a front runner. It's only an issue if those dynamics make logical contenders go faster than is prudent.

     The Gallant Bob Stakes on Saturday at Parx is a race that certainly has "a lot of speed" in it.

    Using the race summary that is a part of Brisnet.com's Ultimate Past Performances, we see that the Gallant Bob has five "E" types from 13 entrants, and eight sophomores with at least 5 Quirin Speed Points.

     As the image below illustrates, though, this is by no means a bad thing, as six-furlong races at Parx are won by "E" types 38% of the time and E/P types 36% of the time. All of eight entrants with at least 5 Quirin Speed Points are either an "E" or "E/P" type.

    So how fast can these horses go? The short answer to that is as fast as #2 Distinctiv Passion can go. Shipping from California and going turf to dirt for the Gallant Bob, Distinctiv Passion has been on the lead at the first and second call in each of his last seven races. In fact, the only time he hasn't made the lead was in his career debut--a maiden race won by eventual King's Bishop Stakes winner Capo Bastone.

    Black Hornet looks to be the only horse capable of going as fast as Distinctiv Passion early, and in fact has a higher last race pace figure than Distinctiv Passion. However, neither of those horses earned their numbers on dirt last time out, and Black Hornet has never raced on a fast surface.


    The only speed horse I think is capable of winning the Gallant Bob is Distinctiv Passion. He can lead them gate to wire, but no other horse is capable of doing so. If a horse tries to out run Distinctiv Passion early, he's unlikely to win that battle let alone the war, and if a speed horse takes back too much, then he's probably too far out of his element and vulnerable to a faster closer anyway.

    Clearly Now is the clear alternative if looking away from the speed, but I worry about taking a shorter price on him than Distinctiv Passion when A) Distinctiv Passion is faster, and B) Clearly Now is 122-pound highweight (Distinctiv Passion carries 115).

    Zeewat is the only other horse I could see using because I'd rather have a closer if trying to beat Distinctiv Passion than speed type.

    Wagering strategy: WPS on #2 Distinctiv Passion at odds of 5-to-1. If we don't get that price, I might go shopping in the place and show pools because combining 13 horses with Parx's big day could mean more of an even distribution than is warranted. I'd definitely play Clearly Now to show if he had less than 15% of that pool and Zeewat with less than 10%.

    I'd never play multiple horses to show or couple with across wager, so these are listed in my order of preference: Distinctiv Passion across at 5-to-1 or better, Clearly Now to show if less than 15% of the pool, or Zeewat to show if less than 10% of the pool.

    The Gallant Bob kicks off a Pick 3 that ends with a pair of $1-million races: The Cotillion and the Pennsylvania Derby. Close Hatches and Sweet Lulu are all you need in the Cotillion, and I think you can beat the Travers top two in the PA Derby, so if you go deep there and catch a price this could pay OK.

    For more on those two races (which also conclude an all-stakes Pick 4), check out the Triple Crown Insider video below

  • The Wise Dan Pick 4 conundrum: When even money on 2-to-5 isn't worth it

    POSTED Sep 13, 2013 By Unknown


    This scene from The Simpsons came to mind when considering whether to single Wise Dan in the $200,000 guaranteed Pick 4 on Sunday at Woodbine, or go against him in the Ricoh Woodbine Mile.

     Seeing the reigning Horse of the Year win his ninth consecutive race would "please the gentleman" as the shopkeep says in the video above, but he would do so at no more than his morning line odds of 2-to-5 and maybe even at 1-to-5, and as Homer J. says, "That's bad."

     But realistically speaking, Wise Dan has a 75%-80% chance of winning, which actually represents value at 2-to-5, and that's good, but I think he'll be used on more than 80% of people's Pick 4 tickets, and that's bad.

     As you can probably tell by now, I've decided to try to leverage Wise Dan as a single who wins 75%-80% of the time rather than take 3- or 4-to-1 on him losing. I work through the math of that decision and the ticket I'm playing in a Pick 4 analysis I did for Brisnet.com & Woodbine. You can get that (as well as Spotlight Selections from Mark Johnson) for FREE by CLICKING HERE.

     If you're reading this, I'm assuming you already have at least a little racing/handicapping knowledge, so I won't insult that by telling you why Wise Dan is the obvious choice, but it is worth noting just how much better he looks on paper than his rivals.

    Wise Dan's 21.8-point Prime Power advantage over Za Approval is among the largest gaps I've seen. I don't have numbers for that high, but horses with a 10-point advantage win more than half the time. We don't have a Prime Power figure for import Trade Storm, but his Class Ratings tell us that he's closer in ability to Wise Dan (.7 off his average last three races) than Za Approval (1.1 points better). With Class Ratings 1 point is a lot, so Wise Dan has a comfortable advantage, but if I were playing anyone against Wise Dan I'd be looking for at least 6-to-1 on Trade Storm, and as crazy as this is going to sound, a $8 straight exacta (for $2) on those two I don't think would be taking the worst of it.

     Forte de Marmi is the other big favorite in that $200,000 guaranteed Pick 4 sequence, and I'd much rather beat him than Wise Dan, and I will try to do so with IRISH MISSION, who is the only horse in the field besides Forte de Marmi to earn a triple digit Brisnet.com Speed Rating in victory.

     That italicized caveat is important to me in this race because Irish Mission's only chance to win will be on the front end, so he's absolutely going to have to go as fast as can as far as he can, and 12-to-1 is a fair price on that prospect.

     Wise Dan certainly doesn't help add value to the Pick 4, but even if you think of it as a Pick 3, how exciting would it be to start a Pick 3 with a $20 horse beating an even money shot. Real exciting, I tell you. This exciting.

     Speaking of exciting, the stakes action begins Saturday at Woodbine with a pair of Win & You're In races for Breeders' Cup juvenile turf events: The Natalma for males and the Summer for females.

     Triple Crown Insider took time out of its busy Keeneland September yearling sale to discuss the current two-year-old landscape with a focus on more main track types, but touched on the Woodbine races as well.

  • Oxbow's Preakness pace wasn't soft

    POSTED May 24, 2013 By Unknown

    Most of the discussion in the aftermath of Oxbow's Preakness Stakes victory involved either explaining away why Orb lost (dead rail) or downplaying why Oxbow won (easy pace). Even if you agree that both played a factor in the outcome, the absolute nature with which some convey these details does a disservice to the science of handicapping--inexact as it can be.

    For Joel Cunningham's part on Triple Crown Insider's Preakness recap above, he notes that "Oxbow ran a very good race" before adding, "Orb didn't fire his best shot."

    I agree with both those statements, and if you liked Oxbow at all--even if you didn't think he was the most likely winner or even a more likely winner than Orb--then you had to be thrilled with the 15.4-to-1 win price.

    I liked what I saw from Oxbow in his Lecomte victory but was way off him by the Kentucky Derby following two hang jobs in the Risen Star and Rebel Stakes and a non effort in the Arkansas Derby.

    There were signs of life in the Kentucky Derby, though, as many pointed out that Oxbow ran best of those near the blistering pace, and a softer pace in the Preakness figured to benefit him with Gary Stevens retaining the mount.

    The key word there is "softer" which is a comparative term. Few would argue that the Preakness was a kinder pace than the Derby, but "softer" doesn't mean "soft." All three of Oxbow's wins have come in gate-to-wire fashion, and since his maiden win in his fourth career start, Oxbow is undefeated when making the lead early.

    All that is to say we have a good baseline of the pace Oxbow is capable of handling and winning since he had done it twice before. His E1 (start to first call) and E2 (start to second call) pace ratings on Brisnet.com were 94-94 in his maiden win and 84-92 in his LeComte win.

     Before Preakness, Oxbow had five previous races where at least one of those ratings (the E1 or E2) was 95+, and he lost all five of those races. In the Preakness, however, Oxbow popped a 96-105 en route to a victory in which he closed with a 114 rating. 

    I have a hard time calling Oxbow's Preakness pace "soft" or "easy" given that he ran faster than he had ever run before when winning yet this time still won. Plenty of credit for that is due to Racing Hall of Fame connections trainer D. Wayne Lukas and jockey Gary Stevens, who pushed the envelope just enough to get the best out of Oxbow at all points of call (114 LP rating!). Lukas tipped his hand all week, saying that Titletown Five would absolutely NOT be on the lead, and now we know the full effect of Lukas's plan.

    How does this fit into how we handicap a race? I'm a broken record on this, but successful wagering is more about determining who can win (and the chances of that happening) than it is saying who will win. I dismissed Oxbow, but there was clearly a scenario in which he would win this race, and there was some chance of that happening. With the benefit of having seen it happening, his fair odds were probably more like 9-to-1 in the thought that what happened in the Preakness probably happens 10% of the time.

    There were some poor judgments on my part not to include that conclusion among my possible scenarios, but that's why Lukas and Stevens are in the Hall of Fame and I'm writing a blog about it.

  • The beat goes on among a common refrain

    POSTED May 17, 2013 By Unknown


    The Triple Crown Insider Preakness preview echoes how many feel about this year's race.

    After waxing poetic about many of Orb's eight foes, Joel Cunningham finally gets the question point blank from Jon Siegel, "Does Orb win the Preakness?"

     "I think Orb wins, Jon; he just keeps getting better."

     There are reasons why any of the nine horses in this year's Preakness could win, but there's little disagreement among racing's cognoscenti that Orb is the most likely to do so. I pegged his fair odds of winning at even money (50/50, a coin flip), and I'd play him to win at 6-to-5 or better.

    Unfortunately, I think he'll be 4-to-5, which means no win bet, but a projected underlay in one pool doesn't mean there won't be opportunities elsewhere. The $1.5-million guaranteed all-stakes Pick 4, for instance, features competitive races in which I expect at least one race to produce a $20+ payout.

    The 2004 Preakness Pick 4 paid 751-to-1 with 7-to-10 Smarty Jones completing a sequence of two second choices and the $24.80 Mr. O'Brien. Even if you had spent $250 singling Smarty Jones to get there, you still managed to turn 7-to-10 into 2-to-1, and a similar situation could occur on Saturday with Orb. (Plus TwinSpires.com players have a shot at an extra $10,000).

    Vertically speaking things get tough. Wheeling Orb in the exacta doesn't make a lot of sense because only Titletown Five will provide the possibility of a rainmaker. $8 to win on Orb is likely to pay $14-$16, and several of the $1 exactas will pay less than that. However, if you're willing to toss a few (as I am) then you could do OK. I'll watch the board, but if any horse not named Departing or Titletown Five is paying $20+ underneath Orb then that will be a bet for me. $6 to win on Orb is in the $10-$11 range, so taking that six and trying to get $20 (but maybe even settling for $15) seems fair value to me.

    The other side of all this is that if Orb is an underlay in the win pool then there is likely an overlay or two as well--especially since both Departing, Mylute, Oxbow, and Titletown Five are likely underlays as well. Part of my strategy with singling Orb in most multi-race plays will be to leverage overlays in the Preakness win pools. I.e., I think a horse like Mylute will be more overbet in the win pool than other pools.

    This approach inhibits the chance at a BIG SCORE, but with only 9 horses in the race, few total throwouts, and a legitimate favorite the chance for a BIG SCORE was mitigated, anyway. I'm happy to grind a profit and be ready with guns blazing for the Triple Crown try in three weeks. 

  • Final Derby thoughts and what Orb's win means for racing

    POSTED May 10, 2013 By Unknown
     

    As the Kentucky Derby aftermath gives way to Preakness chatter, the story lines for the second jewel of American Thoroughbred racing's Triple Crown are becoming fairly well established with Orb's quest to become the first Triple Crown winner since Affirmed in 1978 certainly the main event.

     Racing Hall of Fame trainer Claude R. "Shug" McGaughey is getting the bulk of attention among Orb's connections following the Derby win, but I expect the spotlight to shine brighter on co-owner Ogden Mills "Dinny" Phipps if Orb returns to New York with a chance at racing immortality. Phipps co-owns and co-bred Orb with his cousin, Stuart "no nickname" Janney.

     In praising his trainer not only for the Derby win but also a fantastic career, Phipps said McGaughey does things "the right way," which implies that some don't. I was disappointed that the chairman of The Jockey Club, which has incredible power and influence in the Sport of Kings, used racing's biggest pulpit to tell the world that racing has some undesirables.

     That's no secret, of course, but there is no single person in America in better position than Phipps to do something about it. If there are people doing it the wrong way--as his praise of McGaughey suggested--then what is The Jockey Club doing about it? Janney, by the way, is vice chairman.

     Speaking of Phipps and The Jockey Club, he is a big reason America's Best Racing exists, and his commitment to promoting racing should be commended from all corners. He used the aforementioned influence to revitalize that part of the NTRA's mission, and while that initiative certainly doesn't deserve all the credit for increased Derby ratings, it'd be tough to argue that it didn't at least contribute to it.

     All that said, it will be interesting to see Orb's future plans in light of the connections' commitment to promoting racing (in addition to all Phipps has done, Janney is a lifelong supporter, Shug is always generous with his time and beloved by the media, and the trainer's son, Chip, is a Brand Ambassador for ABR).

     It can only be a good thing, then, that a breeder-owner who has committed so much to promoting the sport is in control of the career of its most popular athlete.

     We're told time and again that racing needs its Triple Crown stars to race beyond their three-year-old years, so what an opportunity for racing to have Orb in the hands of someone so committed to the sport's promotion. The last non-gelded dual classic winner to race as a four-year-old was Real Quiet in 1999. Charismatic, Point Given, War Emblem, Smarty Jones, Afleet Alex, Big Brown, and I'll Have Another all retired following their three-year-old seasons; Funny Cide raced beyond three but is a gelding.

     I'm not as big on the "racing needs stars" argument, but at this point a prominent Triple Crown horse racing beyond his three-year-old season would be nice just for the novelty of it, let alone the star power. It'd be great for ABR, too.

  • Will wilcard weekend yield clues

    POSTED Apr 19, 2013 By Unknown
    When Churchill Downs unveiled its new points system to determine who could start in the Kentucky Derby (in the event that more than 20 enter the race), the Coolmore Lexington, Derby Trial, and Illinois Derby were written off as prep races because of the dearth of points each offered in the new scheme.

     The Lexington and Derby Trial are part of a wildcard round of races that followed the Derby Championship Series where races offered 85 points in leg 1 and 170 points in leg 2 with virtual automatic berths guaranteed for winning a race in leg 1 (50 points) or finished first and second (100 & 40 points, respectively, in leg 2).

     The wild card races are worth only 34 points each, and many thought that even a win (worth 20 points) wouldn't be enough unless a horse already had points. Fast forward to the evening of the first wild card race, and it's conceivable that a win all but assures a spot in the gate (and certainly one among the entries, which is capped at 24), and any points might be enough.

     The Illinois Derby does not offer any points, but with the list of horses officially pointing for the Derby dwindling you might not need any to get in, anyway.

     All that is my long-winded way of saying what looked like an "off" weekend on the Derby trail months ago now absolutely bears watching. It did, anyway, from a Triple Crown perspective, but I'm not ready to write these races off for the Derby considering you might not need any points, anyway.

     One guy not looking ahead to this weekend from a Derby perspective is Joel Cunningham from Triple Crown Insider, who "solidified" his top ten for the Derby when the Derby Championship Series concluded. Not that I disagree with that approach. Even if a horse (or horses) who runs well this weekend does point toward the Derby it's tough to see him (or her in the case of Pure Fun)as a top ten player. The exception might be Sunbean.

        

    One thing Joel talks about that I didn't think of until after watching the video, is how the next two weekends could affect the pace of the Derby. As of right now, hardly anyone would call it "blistering", but if Titletown Five goes from the Derby Trial (the final points race) to the Derby itself then that changes things considerably.

     Because of the lack of points on the bottom end of the Derby leaderboard (and the possibility that 20 might not line up as of now), these next two weekends are anything but time off from prep watching.


    But that doesn't mean it's time off from Derby handicapping, either. As Jill Byrne notes in the video above, 15 horses are already at Churchill Downs, and regardless of location, final preparations are well underway for those with Derby aspirations.

    Your preparations can begin as well with the Ultimate Oaks-Derby Handicapping Package from Brisnet.com, which features six great products for just $25. And our Derby Betting Guide is already available. Check it out.

  • Rebel Stakes preview: Anothing losing opinion about who will lose?

    POSTED Mar 15, 2013 By Unknown
    My strongest opinion regarding the Rebel Stakes on Saturday at Oaklawn Park, involves who won't win rather than who will.

     I don't get the love for Treasury Bill at all. I don't like him for basically the same reason I didn't like Orb: he's too slow.

     Orb ended up making a fool out of me, and maybe Treasury Bill will, too. I mean, it's not like he can't improve 7-10 points given the stretch out and expected pace dynamics, but at the expected price (5-to-1 on the morning line, but lower wouldn't surprise me) I have to bet against him improving AND the top four regressing (Super Ninety Nine) or running flat (Delhomme, Den's Legacy, and Oxbow).
    I'm having a hard time making a top pick. For TwinSpires.com SHOWdown purposes I definitely think Super Ninety Nine is the play, but all four of the ones I mentioned as needing to not improve for Treasury Bill to win look like win threats at the odds, and each has an interesting storyline:

     Delhomme: If Normandy Invasion and Overanalyze had run to their odds in the Risen Star and Gotham, respectively, we'd probably be talking about Delhomme as the likely strong second choice instead of the favorite. He's running as much for the reputation of the Remsen as he is for himself.

     Den's Legacy: The other Baffert, I don't get loving Treasury Bill but not this horse. Den's Legacy is faster than Treasury Bill, and if you think TB is going to get the ideal trip, then Den's Legacy figures to as well.

     Oxbow: The first horse in awhile that D. Wayne Lukas is actually pointing to Kentucky Derby prep races rather than running them just because he can. Several performance figures actually credit the Lecomte winner's Risen Star as best, and he looked like a winner at the eighth pole. A similar trip but one that saves ground absolutely can get it done in this spot.

     Super Ninety Nine: Baffert at Oaklawn. I've seen some question how far Super Ninety Nine wants to go, but if Baffert could get Secret Circle to win this race last year then Super Ninety Nine can win it this year. He's 3-to-2 on the morning line, though, and I don't know that he wins this 40% of the time, and he might be even money or worse. Still, I'd rather bet him as the favorite than Treasury Bill as second choice.

     Wagering wise, I'll take the top three there (who are in alphabetical, no selection order) over the four for nine units. I'll then key Super Ninety Nine over those three in the tri for six units.

  • Our first Derby Championship Series sure thing?

    POSTED Mar 8, 2013 By Unknown
    The question for me approaching the Tampa Bay Derby day card at Tampa Bay Downs on Saturday is not whether I will play Verrazano to win the feature race, but how I will play Verrazno to win the feature race.

    (for FREE Brisnet.com Ultimate Past Performances of Kentucky Derby Championship Series races, CLICK HERE).

    The answer to that question involves the answer to another question: What will the current favorite to win the Kentucky Derby go off at to win this race? If it's 4-to-5 as his morning line suggests then I don't see any need to get too cute in the multi-race pools because I view that as enough value for a straight wager. Mike Welsch of Daily Racing Form said Friday morning on "At The Races" with Steve Byk that he thinks the More Than Ready colt could drift as high as even money!

     Unfortunately, I'm not as optimistic, and I think the only way I see those prices are if I turn him into that as a pick N single. The Pick 5 includes two other stakes, but the turf claimer as the cap on that as well as the late Pick 4 has me less than enthused. The all-stakes Pick 3 as is the Hillsborough-TBD double since I'm not overly keen on horses I expect to take money in the turf stake for older females.

     If I could lock in 4-to-5 right now on Verrazano I would and not look back, but the specter of 1-to-2 or worse when the gates open has me thinking I should plot a multi-race wagering strategy for sure.

     I have Verrazano ranked third on my Kentucky Derby rankings behind Itsmyluckyday and Mac The Man. The TCI boys have Flashback on top, and he runs on the same day as well in the San Felipe Stakes. Joel Cunningham has some nerves about both likely favorites. He's half right, as I think Verrazano airs (see above) but Flashback gets beat by Hear The Ghost.

    Jill Byrne also gets in on the race previews for KentuckyDerby.com

  • West then Southwest--a prime win bet & questions for Joel

    POSTED Feb 16, 2013 By Unknown
    Golden Gate Fields gets its turn in the Derby trail spotlight Saturday afternoon with the El Camino Real Derby, the penultimate 10-points-to-the-winner Kentucky Derby qualifying race. The final race in this stage of the points system is the Southwest Stakes on Monday at Oaklawn Park.

     Racing Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert ships horses into both races, and he'll be formidable in both per usual, but Mandando, to me, is the most likely winner among both races, and I'm prepared to make a prime win bet on him in the El Camino Real at anything better than 3-to-2.

     Let's see what the Triple Crown Insider duo thinks, and to come up with your own opinion, have a look at these FREE Brisnet.com Ultimate Past Performances.
     

    As far as the top ten goes, Jon is absolutely right... the better (faster!) horses are ranked 7th, 9th, and 10th. There's no way Oxbow is a better Derby contender than Verrazano, Itsmyluckyday, or Shanghai Bobby!

  • Three preps and a cloud of dust

    POSTED Jan 31, 2013 By Unknown
    With 51 points available this weekend (17 in each of three Kentucky Derby Prep Season races), the February 2 action will be the most lucrative to date on this year's Triple Crown trail.

     For free Brisnet.com Ultimate Past Performances for the three races (Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs, Withers at Aqueduct, and Robert Lewis at Santa Anita), click here. No race this weekend features a horse currently among the top 11 points earners through last weekend, but that would change even for a horse without any points with a win.

     Triple Crown Insider returns for this big weekend on the Derby trail. Watch the video below to see who JS & JC like in this weekend's big races.

    Be sure to check out HelloRaceFans.org for updated information on the Road to the Kentucky Derby (and Oaks!), including schedules, standings, etc. And sign up for its Derby Prep Alert e-mail for info on the big races including free Brisnet.com Ultimate Past Performances (PPs) for each race!

  • Insider look at Breeders' Cup races

    POSTED Oct 31, 2012 By Unknown
    With 180 horses pre-entered and nearly as many wagering options littered across 15 races, handicapping the Breeders' Cup World Championships can be daunting, but there is help.

    In addition to all the great handicapping information Brisnet.com has available at TwinSpires.com, this blog is a tremendous resource for handicapping insights both in general and on the sport's biggest races each weekend.

    Take a look at the video below for a discussion on horses to watch at this year's Breeders' Cup.


  • Woodbine's pre World Championships worldwide affair

    POSTED Oct 12, 2012 By Unknown

    With three weeks to go until the first day of the Breeders' Cup World Championships, it would be easy to look past this weekend if not for significant international action on Sunday at Woodbine, which will stage three Grade 1 Win & You're In races on an 11-race card that also features another graded stakes as well as a pair of Pick 4 wagers with guaranteed pools.

     To make playing this card even more alluring, Brisnet.com has teamed with Woodbine to provide players with FREE Ultimate Past Performances and Spotlight Selections from Mark Johnson (who, as the only announcer to call both the Epsom & Kentucky Derbys, knows a thing or three about international racing).
    To access those free handicapping materials, click here to visit Woodbine's Pattison Canadian International day microsite (PPs & selections are in the middle of page).
    To help players make the most of those two guaranteed Pick 4 pools, TwinSpires.com has teamed with Woodbine to offer 4-million points to players who participate. Hit either of the $.20 minimum Pick 4s and share in 1-million. Wager at least $20 and share in another 1-million points per pool if you fail to cash. Not a member? Register now and receive up to $1,000 as a sign-up bonus.

     Each sequence includes a pair of stakes races. The early Pick 4 begins with the Durham Cup-Nearctic double, and I hope to kick things off with Vertiformer, who is the only shipper in the six-horse field but who has Polytrack experience by way of an allowance victory at Arlington Park, which is competitive enough with this group. Delegation is an up-and-comer, but I'll let him beat me at a short price.

     In the Nearctic, Big Band Sound and Fire Lily both make sense as top choices, but I'll need to use Bear Tough Guy as well, who gets the rail and returns to turf and Woodbine after a nice allowance win at Presque Isle. This is a big jump in class given his previous graded stakes form, but there's a lot to like here third off the layoff.

     The E.P. Taylor begins the late Pick 4, and includes the most likely winner of the stakes program for me in Siyouma. Winner of the Group 1 Sun Chariot last out, even more impressive is that this filly was within 1 3/4 lengths of Snow Fairy, who would probably be about 2-to-5 if she were in this race. That's no slight against this group, which is nice, but the top finishers in the Prix Jean Romanet are just on another level.
    The Pattison Canadian International also features a Group 1 winner in his/her last start with Imperial Monarch shipping West for Aidan O'Brien following a win in the Grand Prix de Paris. A three-year-old beating older in a Group 1 race in his fourth career start is quite an accomplishment, and this Galileo colt clearly fits with these, but given the three-month layoff and the ship, I'm willing to take a stand at a short price. Instead let's try to other shippers in Joshua Tree (who won this race in 2010) and Reliable Man, who despite not winning in more than 13 months has been close in some good races.

  • The last big weekend

    POSTED Oct 5, 2012 By Unknown

    Three of the Breeders' Cup's biggest favorites could solidify that status with wins this weekend: Amazombie in the Sprint, Groupie Doll in the Filly & Mare Sprint, and Wise Dan in the Mile.

     Twelve weeks ago, I presented a list of who I saw as the most likely winners of a Breeders' Cup race. My top pick, Redeemed in the Marathon, is retired, but Groupie Doll in the Filly & Mare Sprint, Executiveprivilege in the Juvenile Fillies, and the Aidan O'Brien entry in the Turf are all still very much alive in their respective divisions, although not necessarily the most likely winners of a Breeders' Cup race at this point.

     Groupie Doll is certainly the most likely winner of not only the Filly and Mare Sprint at this point but also of any Breeders' Cup race. She's just looked invincible since spring in a division that hasn't had any consistency behind her. Turbulent Descent is obviously capable of running a big one, and Reneesgotzip will be interesting in the Santa Anita Sprint Championship against Amazombie, but otherwise another winner would be a legitimate surprise.

     Executiveprivilege is still very much a top Juvenile Fillies contender, but with the undefeated Dreaming of Julia and Rose To Gold both looming this weekend, and Kauai Katie also having won last weekend as Executiveprivilege did, it's hard for me to call the latter filly as likely a winner as others at this point, but I respect that she flashed her talent early and hasn't backed down.

     The Aidan O'Brien entry of St. Nicholas Abbey and Camelot will run in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe this weekend, but even if one were to win that race, it's tough to make a case for either being better than three-time Grade 1 winner Point of Entry considering no Arc winner has been able to win the Turf, though O'Brien did win the Turf with Arc also ran High Chaparral, who was undefeated when turning left.

    One breakthrough I do expect this weekend is among the two-year-old males. I liked Power Broker's performance in last weekend's Frontrunner, but I expect the Champagne winner to be the Breeders' Cup Juvenile favorite--especially if it's Shanghai Bobby or my pick, Archwarrior.

    As you can see from the picture, I'm buying into the Archwarrior hype, and I'll keep getting win tickets on him until he loses, which could get expensive, but even if he loses on Saturday, I'd really only be out a few bucks because I can cash the Saratoga tickets.

  • It's officially Breeders' Cup prep season

    POSTED Sep 21, 2012 By Unknown

    The Breeders' Cup prep races that will receive the most attention are those held five and four weeks out from the World Championships on November 2-3 at Santa Anita Park, but this week's races will surely produce some BC starters and maybe even a couple favorites should Questing and/or Turbulent Descent win their races--the Cotillion and Gallant Bloom, respectively.

     The Cotillion has taken some lumps for its field-to-purse ratio, and it is surprising that so many three-year-old fillies would line up for $400,000 at Charles Town and not have at least cross entered at Parx where third and beyond in the Cotillion are still running for $200,000, but I also can't fault connections for not wanting to face the aforementioned Questing or the undefeated champion My Miss Aurelia.

     I'm finding it very difficult to take a stand with either filly, but I'm certainly not using more than those two (which granted is half the field). Questing will certainly be favored, but I think they'll be close in price. If somehow MMA is 2-to-1 I'd bet her to win.

     My views on the remaining players on the three-year-old scene are known, and I doubt anything that happens in the Pennsylvania Derby will change that, but it is a fun race with the Travers rematch and Mucho Macho and some intriguing longshots including Handsome Mike.

     The Gallant Bloom is a Grade 2 in name only and would be a worthy Grade 1 prep for the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint. Groupie Doll is certainly the favorite for that race, but if Turbulent Descent freaked out the Pletcher-Coolmore connection could generate enough handle to make her the favorite. Regardless, of all the races this weekend, this is the one I'm most interested in from a Breeders' Cup perspective.

  • A more telling weekend

    POSTED Aug 31, 2012 By Unknown

    The Pacific Classic had a bigger say on this year's three-year-old male division than did the Travers Stakes.

    Theoretically either Alpha or Golden Ticket could sneak into the Eclipse Award discussion by pointing toward the Breeders' Cup Classic following a win between now and then (Dullahan already has two Grade 1 wins plus he placed in a classic [the Kentucky Derby]), but the Travers bunch strikes me as not ready for primetime and evoke thoughts of playing out a loser's bracket rather than racing for a championship.

    The Pennsylvania Derby will be a good, competitive, race in the same way the Travers was, but any hope the connections of a three-year-old has of dethroning I'll Have Another must include a Breeders' Cup Classic win.

    Camelot is a sort of dark horse in the discussion, as a Breeders' Cup Classic win to go with his two classic wins (and possible Triple Crown) might be enough to sway American voters in a year without any real superstars. If Frankel would win Horse of the Year with a Classic win (and he would) then why not Camelot (the assumption being that if Camelot won HotY he'd also be champion three-year-old male)?

    The benefit of not having a superstar dominate the racing landscape is that the best of what's around in each part of the country face each other with some regularity, and connections of East Coast- & Midwest-based horses will have to ship West to the Breeders' Cup World Championships if they hope to secure a championship.

    I don't think the Woodward winner (even if it's Mucho Macho Man or To Honor And Serve) can lay claim to being the East Coast's best since Fort Larned, Hymn Book, Ron The Greek, and Wise Dan are sitting this one out, but certainly a win by either of the aforementioned horses would enhance their credentials while a win by any of the other starters would further illustrate the parity among this year's group.

    The Forego is a sort of in-between race. If Shackleford wins, it's impossible to see him cutting back to six furlongs, as the Dirt Mile around two turns is certainly in his wheelhouse, but could that path lead to a championship? If Game On Dude (Classic) and Amazombie (Sprint) both win out then which division does Shackleford reign (burrito) supreme in? Game On Dude would get HotY and older male honors while Amazombie would get the sprint nod. The same goes for Jackson Bend as well. The Dirt Mile is nice given the money and Grade 1 status, but it's not where a championship is going to be decided.

  • Greek peaked or still climbing?

    POSTED Aug 3, 2012 By Unknown
    It's rare that a race outside the Breeders' Cup can define a horse as the best in the country, but that mantle is on the line for Ron The Greek in the Whitney Handicap on Saturday at Saratoga Race Course.


    Ron The Greek is the only multiple Grade 1 winner among older males, and adding a third victory at the game's top level would certainly separate him from the pack--even from a horse like Game On Dude, who has run faster but only has one Grade 1 win to date.

    Despite the 2-1 Grade 1 edge for Ron The Greek, I do think Game On Dude is the superior animal, but at some point accomplishment has to trump theory, and a treble consisting of Santa Anita, Stephen Foster, and Whitney Handicaps is enough to earn the top spot until some other horses start winning multiple Grade 1 races against open company.

    I'm bullish to bring this up now because I don't actually think Ron The Greek will win, so I feel as if this is giving him his just due for dancing in some pretty important dances and winning two of them.

    Elsewhere across the country, two classic races are this weekend: the Hambletonian for trotting Standardbreds is Saturday at The Meadowlands, and the Breeders Stakes is Sunday at Woodbine. TwinSpires.com is offering incentives to play both. I don't (and won't) have an opinion on the Woodbine action, but I do like Market Share and Stormin Normand in the Hambletonian--the third and seventh choices on the morning line, respectively, so I plan to get involved is those prices hold up to actual betting.

  • The best in action

    POSTED Jul 31, 2012 By Unknown
    Race fans received a treat this weekend as the best horses in training in three different divisions strutted their stuff: female turfer Winter Memories in the Diana, male sprinter Amazombie in the Bing Crosby, and three-year-old male Paynter in the Haskell.

    It was a rare weekend in that it delivered on the promise of a promotional video America's Best Racing released touting the excitement that awaits race fans between the Triple Crown and Breeders' Cup World Championships.

    The TCI boys agreed, gushing praise on both Amazombie and Paynter.

     

    They didn't touch on Winter Memories, but I'll do that here since I have a long history of commentating on the brilliant filly.

    I loved Winter Memories' Diana, calling it the best performance in a career that had already included six graded stakes wins. The way she kept in touch with Tapitsfly and so effortlessly took command turning for home to me was a big improvement over previous runs (even in victory) when she had more of a slingshot style. This maturity has led to better performance, as she earned a 104 BRIS Speed Rating in the romp.

     

    As impressive as she was, I still have a difficult time slotting her among my most likely Breeders' Cup winners because A) the Euros are so much of a question mark, and B) Saratoga does seem to be her preferred surface. Still, repeats of the Diana going forward would make her very tough to beat.

    Most likely 2012 Breeders' Cup winners
    1.Redeened; 2. Groupie Doll; 3. St. Nicholas Abbey; 4. Amazombie; 5. Royal Delta

    The top two remain the same from my initial ranking, but I've boosted St. Nicholas Abbey of his third behind Danedream and Nathanial in less than optimum conditions and added Amazombie, who definitely seems the best of the Breeders' Cup Sprint types in a year when the top speedballs look more suited to middle-distance races (e.g. Shackleford). I moved Royal Delta into the fifth spot because I think her Delaware Handicap was enough to show she'd be up against it in the Classic, but I do see her as much the best against her own sex.

  • The ones we've been waiting for

    POSTED Jul 19, 2012 By Unknown
    Del Mar opened yesterday, Saratoga opens tomorrow, and outside the Triple Crown races (especially the Kentucky Derby) and the Breeders' Cup World Championships no events in racing match the anticipation fans have for these premiere meetings.


    The absolute best racing occurs later in both meets, but there is Grade 1 racing on tap from both facilities this Saturday: The CCA Oaks at Saratoga and the Eddie Read at Del Mar.

    Joel Cunningham and I talked last week on Triple Crown Insider about the open nature of the current three-year-old filly division. I can't call Grace Hall the leader at this point without a Grade 1 win, but she is my most likely champion at this stage following her Delaware Oaks romp. Still, the CCA Oaks will certainly have a say regarding the division's leader, especially if either Zo Impressive or In Lingerie add another graded stakes to their resume.

    I went with a longshot, however, in Yara, who already won big this year as a longshot when defeating Grace Hall at Gulfstream Park. Is she the most likely winner of this race? Of course not, I think Disposablepleasure is, but I do think Yara will be completely overlooked relative to her chances, and I'm looking forward to playing her across the board.


    As for the Eddie Read, I'm hoping Acclamation continues to strut his stuff on a Grade 1 stage. He won't be underappreciated in this race, and is a likely underlay given the short field and only one real alternative to beat him, but in the big picture he is an overlooked horse as defending champion older male. Repeating in that category will be a tall order, but an Eddie Read win certain makes him the leading North American turf horse.

    Just like two weeks ago when the Grade 2 Suburban was more interesting than the Grade 1 Hollywood Gold Cup, the best race of the weekend is neither of the aforementioned Grade 1 tilts but the Grade 2 Delaware Handicap featuring a rematch between Royal Delta and Awesome Maria. I give the wagering nod to the latter, who already defeated Royal Delta earlier this year and figures to be twice the price.