TwinSpires.com Blog

The Jackpot 5 Show Parlay Opportunity

One thing I've tried to do lately is think of wagers as opportunities. If I'm not overjoyed at the chance to enter into a particular pool then it's not worth my money. Different pools can work together to offer multiple opportunities. E.g., the win pool can provide a way to hedge against uncovered opinions in a Pick 4.

TwinSpires.com's Jackpot 5 wager offers multiple opportunities with one wager since 20% of the net pool goes toward the jackpot (only ticket with all five winners) and 80% goes toward the show pick 5 (any ticket with all selections finishing third or better), but one of the great things about the pari-mutuel system is that an opportunity for one could create a separate opportunity for another, as is the case with Jackpot 5 if you have some good opinions on who can finish third or better.

Consider the first two sequences of the bet TwinSpires.com debuted last weekend:

A show parlay on the five shortest-priced (to show) horses in the Jackpot 5 wager on Saturday, August 17, on TwinSpires.com would have returned $42 for an initial $2 investment. Those same five horses with Jackpot 5 came back $155.36 for a dollar.

The same approach on Sunday, August 18, would have returned $7.87 for $2 but came back $7.92 for $1 via TwinSpires.com's Jackpot 5 wager.

If you take the approach that you will not be the only winner if your five short-priced to show horses win, anyway, then there's no harm in punching multiple tickets on favored sequences.

A five-race show parlay of horses who pay $3 each would return $15 for 13-to-2 odds. If you think each horse in your parlay has a 75% chance of hitting the board then the fair odds of completing the parlay is 7-to-2, so you're getting great value on a bet you'll lose ~76.27% of the time.

But based on Sunday's Jackpot 5 results, which included a pair of horses who paid $2.10 (the minimum) to show, it's fair to assume that same parlay on $3 show horses could have returned $15 for a dollar. By targeting one aspect of the wager you've created tremendous value even while giving up on the jackpot.

Yeah, it'd be awesome to take down the Jackpot, but part of the fun of the pari-mutuel system is knowing that when you won your peers have lost, and zigging with a show strategy when they're zagging toward a jackpot can be quite lucrative.

ABC Double carryover

Show me the carryovers!

The first of 34 Summer Showdown days is in the books, and nobody picked 10 (or 9 or 8) on the opening day program at Del Mar, which means there's $3,000 up for grabs today--$1,500 from Wednesday plus the guaranteed $1,500 every day.

If you played yesterday don't get discouraged; today's task is easier since there is only eight races on the card. If you can pick a horse to show 50% of the time, then that 20% reduction in races makes you about four times more likely to sweep the card! We've doubled the money available, and your'e four times more likely to win it. Can't beat that! If you didn't play yesterday, then today is a great day to jump in because of the extra money.

The other good news for those taking a run, is you won't have my pitiful show selections around to gum up your game. I was out after the first race yesterday, and only three of my ten picks managed to hit the board.

However, even though my handicapping did not produce winners show horses, I stand behind the strategy because those who did connect early were playing with house money the rest of the day by virtue of all three show payoffs in the first race being more than $4. I.e., Any winning $10 show bet returned more than $20, so even after placing another $10 bet on race two, you were up on the day for that particular wager.

Even better is that the average show price among the 30 horses to hit the board on the program was $4.60, and only one race (the second) did not include a horse who paid at least $4 to show. With judicious handicapping and selection, your show bets can make Summer Showdown a freeroll for $1,500 (or more!) every day through September 1!

Of all the players who placed a $10 show wager on the first race, Richard L. lasted the longest with seven consecutive winning plays before dropping race 8 (a race that also tripped me up). If he makes it that far today AND nails that elusive eighth race then he'll win or share the $3,000.

My focus today is on a carryover I am eligible for: the $12,903 carryover in the Pick 5 at Arlington International Racecourse. A pair of third choices on the morning lines are the key for me as single "A" picks: #1 Pranksterbdancing in Race 6 (leg 2) and #7 Tornadito in race 7 (leg 3).

Pranksterbdancing looks to have a big pace edge on the field of lower level claimers and the opportunity to beat the logical 7-to-5 and 2-to-1 morning line choices could really boost the Pick 5 payout. Tornadito drops in and cuts back off a speed and fade job from an outside post in his debut.

Four-five is the Rainbow Six

I don't know many horse players who haven't had April 5 circled on their calendars for some time.

Whether it's the Rainbow^6 mandatory payout, opening weekend at Keeneland, Derby Championship Series presented by TwinSpires.com weekends at Aqueduct and Santa Anita, or all of the above, this is unquestionably the biggest weekend of racing in the United States since the Breeders' Cup World Championships five months ago.

I'll be in wagering action starting at 1:10 p.m. EDT when Keeneland lifts the lid on its 16-day season. It'll be a whirlwind three weeks with big fields and big prices, but the flurry of activity coast-to-coast expected over a 30-hour period will leave many people's head spinning, no doubt.

The Rainbow^6 carryover will be around $2-million going into Friday's races, which is closing day at Gulfstream. That it's closing day means the whole net pool--which any other day only pays out to a single winner--will be paid out to all winners. It's an extremely unique opportunity to chase after a seven-figure pot for as little as a dime. Estimates for new money into the pool range from $4-million to $8-million! Imagine that: a $10-million pool on a base wager of a dime!

Of course, the TwinSpires.com Players Pool is looking to hit it for more than a dime, as me and handicapping champions Michael Beychok & Patrick McGoey will have tens of thousands of dollars (i.e., hundreds of thousands of dimes) to wager on the sequence that begins with race 8 at 4:34 p.m. EDT.

FRIDAY MORNING UPDATE: Well, we're off the turf at Gulfstream, which is a slight monkey wrench considering pending scratches and having to re-handicap some races for dirt/off track. The biggest change is in wagering strategy, though. The Players Pool is putting $100,000 into this, and the goal is not to hit the Rainbow^6 but to make money. Some combinations will absolutely need to be covered multiple times--maybe as many as 100x ($10) or 200x ($20) times.

On the plus side, we're "fast" (Polytrack) and firm at Keeneland, so tab below is pretty current. The Gulfstream tab will be updated as scratches come in. The Gulfstream "picks" below is my grid only and does not reflect the approach of the Players Pool or its other panelists.

Gulfstream Thursday February 14

The Rainbow^6 carries on at Gulfstream, and so, too, does my attempt to hit a Pick 4 at this meeting.

Did OK yesterday if you ignore the fact that both my "had to win" singles lost. Definitely a loser on the day, but a couple spot exacta plays kept me from pitching a shutout.

If there were a Pick 5 carryover I'd probably take a swing, but as is I think the Pick 4 is tough enough, so I'll just target that with an all "A" play.

Good luck to those getting involved!

Carryover action at Turf Paradise

I can't exactly call Turf Paradise one of my favorite tracks to play, as I rarely check into it on a weekend day of racing, but it's definitely a track I like to play, as its Pick 5 carryovers into Monday or Tuesday help scratch my itch during an otherwise down time of the handicapping for most players.

I've actually been laying low most of this year with only a few spot plays dotting my wagering in the New Year. Between a Vegas trip at the end of this month and looking at my results for 2012, I wanted to focus my bankroll on poker a preserve a decent nut for spring racing (read: Keeneland).

That's not to say I'll ignore opportunities, though, and a $26k+ carryover into a Pick 5 certainly piques my interest. It's a navigable but not-what-I-would-call easy sequence that would cost $38,400 to buy, but I'm looking to invest about 1% of that.

There are three horses I see as the most likely winners of the five races: #7 Flawless Jewel in leg 1 (race 5), #2 Vikkilee in leg 2 (race 6), and #10 Set'n Ready in leg 4 (race 8). I'm going to play so that at least two of the three have to win.

Here's the ABC grid to riches; post time is 4:22 p.m. EST

Portland Meadows carryover/0% takeout Wednesday

TwinSpires.com players already had a reason to play Portland Meadows' early Pick 4 every Wednesday, but the pot is even sweeter today (October 3) because of a $3,558 carryover after no one picked four on Sunday's card.

Those who follow me on Twitter or catch my weekly segment on "At The Races" w/ Steve Byk (brought to you by TwinSpires.com, where players win) know that I'm not one to shy away from tracks off the beaten path. Sure, I love the social aspect of playing along with everyone else at the usual outposts like NYRA, Kentucky, and Southern California racing, but if there is free money in the pot at Assiniboia, Northlands, or Portland Meadows then I'm going to go for that too.

One of the reasons I love Brisnet.com Ultimate Past Performances besides they keep me employed is they give the user a quick snapshot of how a particular meeting is playing. I don't follow Portland Meadows on a daily basis, but the detailed jockey-trainer statistics along with the Ultimate Race Summary page give any user a leg up on how the track is playing.

All four races in today's sequence are sprints, though of varying distances from 4 1/2 to 6 furlongs. A quick glance through the PPs reveals that speed holds extremely well around one turn and that starting position is fair.

The Ultimate PPs are also good for handicapping for an off track--something that seems to come into play more at Portland Meadows than other venues--but the forecast looks clear for today.

The basic plan of attack will be that I need two "A"s to win, and I'll probably treat the Bs the same as Cs for that purpose. I could play every pick on this sheet for $400, but I'd rather give myself a chance to hit it multiple times, as I do see the "A" tabs as formidable here.

UPDATE (3:30 p.m. EDT):
The scratch of #4 Sicily Grace in race 3 has me rethinking my strategy since she was a lone "A" (i.e. a single) in that race. I've decided that rather than elevate #s 1, 2, & 7 to "A" status I'd still treat them as "B" picks and build my tickets around the remaining "A" selections.

I've put together seven tickets with my lone "A" picks in races 1 and 4 singled on five tickets each and the cold 1-1 double sandwiching the sequence appearing on three different tickets. I like the remaining "A" picks enough that I'd rather hit the ticket many multiple times if they come in rather than spread elsewhere.

UPDATE (the morning after):
Well, B-A-A-X doesn't pay. I didn't like the last leg winner at all. She was dropping down to the level at which she had broke her maiden (against males, no less) and retained her jockey--the 27%-at-the-meet--Anne Sanguinetti, but others just seemed faster in here, and she was highweight.

The real "miss" for me was not elevating first leg winner Singing Yankee to an "A" when it was obvious that the public was backing her with both fists for her debut. The toteboard said only Jenny's Turn or Singing Yankee could win the race, so putting most of my eggs in the former's basket while playing the latter in equal weight with some bombs wasn't a great strategy.

The Pick 4 "only" paid $252 for a buck, so I didn't miss a home run, but a 2x3x3xA was only $126, and an even money return would have been fair value in that case.

CARRYOVER! Why racing leads the way in jackpot wagering