Showing posts with label win betting. Show all posts
Showing posts with label win betting. Show all posts

  • Battlefield Breeders Crown: The Cavalcade Of Freshmen and Sophomores

    POSTED Oct 24, 2012 By Frank Cotolo
    Once again, this TwinSpires blog and the exclusive Breeders Crown Countdown blog are working in tandem. We are splitting up our comments on the Oct. 27 Breeders Crown finals at Woodbine between here and there.

    At the other blog, we present the older divisions in the classic series, while the two- and three-year-old events are covered below. And follow us on Twitter -- @FrankCotolo and @RayCotolo, as we report live on the Woodbine program.

    Shuffle your attention once more to be abreast of all the coverage, available exclusively at TwinSpires in cooperation with the Hambletonian Society. Here are our comments and suggested contenders in the order of the frosh or soph event on Saturday, Oct. 27.

    Two-Year-Old Filly Pace


    Off of a striking win at The Red Mile, Parlee Beach comes to this affair fresh and strong. She qualified at Mohawk to prep and should be ready to pounce on the top choice, I Luv The Nitelife and top the exacta with that one. You may want to add Love Canal for a trifecta. She was our choice in the elim and was a strong second at 13-1 with Somewherovrarainbow, who is bound to be sharp again but may have to settle for a smaller share with these.
     

    Three-Year-Old Filly Pace


    We are ready to support what could be a major upset in this mile with Apogee Hanover.

    This race could wind up with a shuffling speed duel that will give our choice a clear path to take advantage of a closing kick that impressed us greatly in last week’s elim, won by Romantic Moment. That won will have to contend with American Jewel and Economy Terror and the three could cancel each other out.

    In fact, using Shelliscape for the exacta with Apogee Hanover is a wise move that could produce great results if the speed we expect is not at a surplus. This is a wonderful scenario for an explosive wagering strike.

    Two-Year-Old Filly Trot


    We have been fans of frosh-fillies sired by Kadabra since we delivered readers Poof She’s Gone in the Mistletoe Shalee at 6-1. When Bee A Magician began the season we were all over her nine wins from 11 starts. She comes into this event poised to beat To Dream On (she is the only filly to defeat that one) and if she lives up to her 3-1 morning line she is a super overlay.

    Royal Assets could play a role in an exotic combo, having a propensity to follow winners. She is in a great spot to lay low and sneak into the picture late at a great price.

    Three-Year-Old Filly Trot


    Check Me Out can come close to being the first soph-filly trotter to get a bundle of votes for Horse of the Year since CR Kay Suzie earned that honor—but she has to win this event convincingly. We think she will do that and that only some strange misstep that gets her galloping will stop her. Toss out her loss at The Red Mile since she made two wide moves. From the rail here she should command this affair.

    What may make for a juicy exotic is the inclusion of Bluff. We thought Bluff would be the one to beat Check Me Out in the Kentucky Filly Futurity but she never got started in that mile. We will excuse her for that and bank on her getting a good spot early, possibly sucking along to Check Me Out and saving enough ground to get second or third while others fade from giving chase.

    Two-Year-Old Colt Pace


    Three words describe this race: Captaintreacherous, Captaintreacherous and Captaintreacherous (photo right). It has become hard to be anything but cute when talking about a race with this monstrous freshman. He will be 1-10 and there will be little you can do with him. He may race to another world record here as he faces the same types he has been beating regularly. No one knows if he has raced his best and as his third birthday looms we can only watch and try to muster more awe.

    Rockin Amadeus may be on his tail for second, though even at 20-1 the exacta will be slim.

    Two-Year-Old Colt Trot


    Pine Chip scratched from this final but that is hardly consequential since his chances of beating Wheeling N Dealin were slim to none. In fact, who among this group can hand “Wheeling” his first defeat? It is difficult to make as strong a case for any other colt here but Wheeling.

    Last week we took a 60-1 shot, Caveat Emptor, who finished fourth. He may sit in a good spot this time around, leaving as we thought he would in the final, and be up to making this a whopper of an exacta. For a trifecta with some price to it, put the probable second choice, Dontyouforgetit for third.
     
    Three-Year-Old Colt Pace

    This will be the first time all season that we support Sweet Lou. We beat him throughout the year and rightfully so—except at The Red Mile. That was an impressive race against the best of this mediocre crop. Along with Mel Mara, a perfect late-season star, Sweet Lou should handle the likes of the lesser talent involved.

    This rag-tag field is what is left of the crop: Michaels Power, Bettors Edge, Escape The News, Heston Blue Chip, Panther Hanover, Dapper Dude, Thinking Out Loud and Hillbilly Hanover were all second- and third-stringers in the division this year.

    The fact that Michaels Power will get money only helps our duo. Bettors Edge won his elim with everyone on top of him but he will attract money. Thinking Out Loud is a hometown favorite that has one big credit to his season and it was in Canada, Hillybilly Hanover is thriving late but was nowhere most of the season and Dapper Dan brings very little to the table with his resume.

    Sweet Lou stunned the crowd here last year as the frosh-colt pacing hero but at three he was disappointing, though productive by most measures. In class and condition, our pair of picks are the best.
     

    Three-Year-Old Colt Trot

     
    Supplement, shmupplement [sic], Market Share is the utter best of this division and how he lost last week to Intimidate qualifies as a freaky moment that should become an asterisk in the history books.

    It’s true that we backed Little Brown Fox through the year and thought he could have won the Hambletonian had he not jumped in his elim to be disqualified, that was then and this is now—and now, Market Share is undeniably the best. He won’t be worth much to win and the exotics promise to be puny, so we leave this one up to you 

    For the events with older divisions of this year’s Breeders Crown, click here.

    Ray Cotolo contributed to this edition.

  • How to Spot Losing Favorites

    POSTED Sep 14, 2012 By Derek Simon
    Recently, I’ve been spending quite a bit of time trying to identify and profit from bad favorites. The logic is this: If a handicapper can eliminate a horse that controls 30-40 percent of the win pool (typical for most favorites), he/she can theoretically make money simply by betting — in proportion to their odds — every other horse in the field.

    This method of play, known as “dutching,” is said to have been invented by the infamous gangster Arthur Flegenheimer, a.k.a. Dutch Schultz, in the 1930s and was especially popular when bookmakers still ruled the racing world.

    Today, at least in America, where pari-mutuel wagering has become the standard, dutching is all but impractical save for rare instances. Plus, let’s be honest, Dutch Schultz and his ilk undoubtedly knew when a certain horse or horses would lose (my guess is they were able to, uh, "persuade" owners/jockeys to help them achieve their goals rather easily). These days, horseplayers typically don’t have that luxury; we must deal in probabilities.

    Nonetheless, tossing a heavily bet entrant from win consideration is still desirable — at the very least it eliminates or reduces the “house advantage,” as evidenced by the table below:
     
    What this table shows is the maximum success (win) rate horses at the specified odds can achieve in order to wipe out both the takeout and breakage (based on a 122 percent pool).  

     Anything below the listed percentage means that a dutch of all the other runners would result in profits, while anything above the listed percentage entails an incrementally greater house advantage.

    For example, if one were to discard all 6-5 favorites from win consideration, those horses would need to lose at least 77 percent of the time, on average, for one to eliminate the track takeout and breakage. That’s no small feat given that such horses, as a whole, typically win around 40 percent of the time. However, it can be done.

     Below are three general guidelines to help you spot vulnerable favorites:

     1) Horses ill-suited to today’s surface/pace requirements.


    (Click on image to enlarge)
    Holdin Bullets may have been the most terrible favorite in the history of terrible favorites when he went to post as the 2-1 betting choice in the 7th race at Kentucky Downs on Sept. 10. Not only was the Wesley Ward-trained three-year-old coming off of an extended vacation, he was also going a distance of ground for the first time in his life and trying a new surface to boot.

    Now, look at his pace figures and remember that turf races — especially turf races at Kentucky Downs, which has many characteristics of a European course — typically require moderate early speed rations (ESRs), strong late speed rations (LSRs) and a positive Pace Profile.

    Holdin Bullets shows just the opposite — a ridiculously fast ESR (-17), a horrible LSR (-22) and a negative Pace Profile (-78 degrees) in his last race.

    On Monday, the son of Ghostzapper set the pace for half a mile and faded steadily thereafter; he finished dead last, beaten by 31 lengths.

    2) Animals that don’t rank highly in any of the major handicapping categories — speed, class or form.

    (Click on image to enlarge)
    Due to the conditions, the fourth race at Delaware Park on Sept. 12 matched hard-knocking multiple winners versus younger, more inexperienced foes.

    Ice Pilot was among the latter.

    Seven of the nine entrants had more career wins than the son of Smart Strike and several had superior earnings (and earnings per start) as well. What’s more, Ice Pilot was coming off a dull sixth-place finish at Monmouth Park, albeit against better, just 20 days ago. At even odds, he was the very definition of an underlay.

    Ice Pilot finished third.

    3) Entrants with moderate credentials that are getting bet like they are Secretariat.
    (Click on image to enlarge)
    When I saw Runaway Court was 2-5 on the morning line in the 7th race at Remington Park on Sept. 13, I was flabbergasted… and immediately began salivating over the prospect of a negative show pool.

    Sure, Runaway  Court looked like a contender in the one-mile maiden claiming event — she was dropping drastically in class and sported top-notch connections — but she had never before raced on dirt (see rule 1) and was being bet like she was Rachel Alexandra.

    The daughter of (grass-loving) Powerscourt went to post at her morning line of 2-5 and was trounced by 34 ¾ lengths.
    (Click on image to enlarge)

    Weekend Win Factor Reports

    09/16/12 Belmont Park
    09/16/12 Fairplex Park
    09/16/12 Woodbine