Showing posts with label championships. Show all posts
Showing posts with label championships. Show all posts

  • Breeders Crown Finals Are Wager-Worthy

    POSTED Oct 16, 2013 By Frank Cotolo



    The Breeders Crown for 2013 takes place on the single program at Pocono Downs this Saturday, Oct. 19. We will once again be on site for the events, offering tweets @FrankCotolo , @HarnessRaycer with extended coverage. Follow us for some major late-breaking wagering opportunities, as well as exclusive insider comments.

    This week’s blog, like last week’s blog, splits into two volumes. We cover, below, the two- and three-year-old events. At the Breeders CrownCountdown blog, we cover the finals for the older divisions. Our horses-to-watch list (H2W) returns next week.

    The finals’ fields include the top finishers from the elims and the byes, making for competitive races, though four of them include arguable locks.
     
    Two-year-old Colt Trot

    One of this year’s three best horses has been Father Patrick. We have sung his praises through the season and he has not let us down. In the elim we nabbed him with Nuncio for an exacta, having faith in the latter’s return after a rest. Father Patrick made up a lot of ground to win but it’s the kind of horse he has been all season in this division. Don Dorado, here with rest, comes in on a bye and should be wailing. Nuncio could be in the mix again.

    Two-year-old Filly Pace
    Gallie Bythe Beach won an elim but her connections scratched her, disliking how she came out of the mile. So, Precocious Beauty, beaten a neck last week and getting post 8, may be a decent price, especially with She’s Da Bomb, though also an elim loser, and Allstar Rating, the other elim winner, drawing inside of her. If those three cancel each another out with duels and shuffling, which is a good possibility, Uffizi Hanover could be the upset performer.

    Two-year-old Filly Trot
    Cooler Schooner appears to be a step or two better than her main rival, Shake It Cerry, but that is impossible to prove. Ultimately, the filly that can topple them both, especially if they speed it up midway to get control, is Lifetime Pursuit. A spoiler for the exacta may be Demanding Sam, who was strong late against “Cooler” in a deceiving close (because “Cooler” won by over 10 lengths). “Cerry” could be off the board.

    Three-year-old Filly Pace
    This division went sans elims but what does that matter when I Luv The Nitelife shows up to race? She is the second of four outstanding division leaders and should cap her soph season tonight with a blaze of glory. There will be action on Shebestingin and Somwherovrarainbow but it is most difficult to see them beating “Nitelife.” In fact, while you are keying Nitelife in exotics, don’t leave out Parlee Beach, who could pull another great second as she did in Delaware, at a big price.

    Two-year-old Colt Pace
    This is a tough field with a lot of cases for many to win. So Surreal closed very well in his elim and may be a big overlay compared to Somestarsomewhere and Luck Be Withyou, last week’s steamers. Also a probable outsider with a decent chance of being in the mix is Three Of Clubs. He will be under-rated, especially from post 8, but is coming around to a strong peak at the right time.

    Three-year-old Filly Trot

    The next standout, unbeaten in her division and the filly many thought could have beaten the boys in the Hambo, is Bee A Magician. Readers of this blog heard the name first here, last year, when we forecast the daughter of Kadabra to be a giant. She has exceeded our expectations and could be the best around since CR Kay Suzie. Royal Assets scratched, bringing Southwind Cocoa into the field but that is a small asterisk. Chances are Coffeecake Hanover or Ma Chere Hall sit behind “Bee” and there is the exacta.


    Three-year-old Colt Pace

    Rarely at this time in the season can a harness writer be at a loss for superlatives when it comes to any horse but the well of accolades has been emptied when it comes to Captaintreacherous. It’s amazing that the track handicapper’s morning line makes him a 5-2 favorite. Those odds are madness; they represents a 29-percent chance to win for one of the greatest pacers to set foot on a racetrack in modern times. We should only be so lucky to get such a wager. For an exacta price look at Apprentice Hanover, who can sneak in there while the other public choices try again to thwart Captaintreacherous’ trip. Beach Memories could hoist the price of a trifecta. Horses in exotics with “Captain” have tended to be outsiders, the ones standing after the better ones lose their breaths.

    Three-year-old Colt Trot

    We think Royalty For Life will race far better than he did in the elim, where he finished fourth while maintaining a tiresome outside trip. No doubt he will be sent strongly this time and when he is able to take command he will do what he has done to these same horses almost repeatedly through the season. He may be a better price than ever, though, because the crowd is fickle and because he has not totally dominated the division and because All Laid Out is the “now” horse. We like to think that means he loses now. Use Deadliest Catch in exotics, as well as EL Rocket to boost your prices.


    Ray Cotolo contributed to this edition.

     

  • Battlefield Breeders Crown: The Cavalcade Of Freshmen and Sophomores

    POSTED Oct 24, 2012 By Frank Cotolo
    Once again, this TwinSpires blog and the exclusive Breeders Crown Countdown blog are working in tandem. We are splitting up our comments on the Oct. 27 Breeders Crown finals at Woodbine between here and there.

    At the other blog, we present the older divisions in the classic series, while the two- and three-year-old events are covered below. And follow us on Twitter -- @FrankCotolo and @RayCotolo, as we report live on the Woodbine program.

    Shuffle your attention once more to be abreast of all the coverage, available exclusively at TwinSpires in cooperation with the Hambletonian Society. Here are our comments and suggested contenders in the order of the frosh or soph event on Saturday, Oct. 27.

    Two-Year-Old Filly Pace


    Off of a striking win at The Red Mile, Parlee Beach comes to this affair fresh and strong. She qualified at Mohawk to prep and should be ready to pounce on the top choice, I Luv The Nitelife and top the exacta with that one. You may want to add Love Canal for a trifecta. She was our choice in the elim and was a strong second at 13-1 with Somewherovrarainbow, who is bound to be sharp again but may have to settle for a smaller share with these.
     

    Three-Year-Old Filly Pace


    We are ready to support what could be a major upset in this mile with Apogee Hanover.

    This race could wind up with a shuffling speed duel that will give our choice a clear path to take advantage of a closing kick that impressed us greatly in last week’s elim, won by Romantic Moment. That won will have to contend with American Jewel and Economy Terror and the three could cancel each other out.

    In fact, using Shelliscape for the exacta with Apogee Hanover is a wise move that could produce great results if the speed we expect is not at a surplus. This is a wonderful scenario for an explosive wagering strike.

    Two-Year-Old Filly Trot


    We have been fans of frosh-fillies sired by Kadabra since we delivered readers Poof She’s Gone in the Mistletoe Shalee at 6-1. When Bee A Magician began the season we were all over her nine wins from 11 starts. She comes into this event poised to beat To Dream On (she is the only filly to defeat that one) and if she lives up to her 3-1 morning line she is a super overlay.

    Royal Assets could play a role in an exotic combo, having a propensity to follow winners. She is in a great spot to lay low and sneak into the picture late at a great price.

    Three-Year-Old Filly Trot


    Check Me Out can come close to being the first soph-filly trotter to get a bundle of votes for Horse of the Year since CR Kay Suzie earned that honor—but she has to win this event convincingly. We think she will do that and that only some strange misstep that gets her galloping will stop her. Toss out her loss at The Red Mile since she made two wide moves. From the rail here she should command this affair.

    What may make for a juicy exotic is the inclusion of Bluff. We thought Bluff would be the one to beat Check Me Out in the Kentucky Filly Futurity but she never got started in that mile. We will excuse her for that and bank on her getting a good spot early, possibly sucking along to Check Me Out and saving enough ground to get second or third while others fade from giving chase.

    Two-Year-Old Colt Pace


    Three words describe this race: Captaintreacherous, Captaintreacherous and Captaintreacherous (photo right). It has become hard to be anything but cute when talking about a race with this monstrous freshman. He will be 1-10 and there will be little you can do with him. He may race to another world record here as he faces the same types he has been beating regularly. No one knows if he has raced his best and as his third birthday looms we can only watch and try to muster more awe.

    Rockin Amadeus may be on his tail for second, though even at 20-1 the exacta will be slim.

    Two-Year-Old Colt Trot


    Pine Chip scratched from this final but that is hardly consequential since his chances of beating Wheeling N Dealin were slim to none. In fact, who among this group can hand “Wheeling” his first defeat? It is difficult to make as strong a case for any other colt here but Wheeling.

    Last week we took a 60-1 shot, Caveat Emptor, who finished fourth. He may sit in a good spot this time around, leaving as we thought he would in the final, and be up to making this a whopper of an exacta. For a trifecta with some price to it, put the probable second choice, Dontyouforgetit for third.
     
    Three-Year-Old Colt Pace

    This will be the first time all season that we support Sweet Lou. We beat him throughout the year and rightfully so—except at The Red Mile. That was an impressive race against the best of this mediocre crop. Along with Mel Mara, a perfect late-season star, Sweet Lou should handle the likes of the lesser talent involved.

    This rag-tag field is what is left of the crop: Michaels Power, Bettors Edge, Escape The News, Heston Blue Chip, Panther Hanover, Dapper Dude, Thinking Out Loud and Hillbilly Hanover were all second- and third-stringers in the division this year.

    The fact that Michaels Power will get money only helps our duo. Bettors Edge won his elim with everyone on top of him but he will attract money. Thinking Out Loud is a hometown favorite that has one big credit to his season and it was in Canada, Hillybilly Hanover is thriving late but was nowhere most of the season and Dapper Dan brings very little to the table with his resume.

    Sweet Lou stunned the crowd here last year as the frosh-colt pacing hero but at three he was disappointing, though productive by most measures. In class and condition, our pair of picks are the best.
     

    Three-Year-Old Colt Trot

     
    Supplement, shmupplement [sic], Market Share is the utter best of this division and how he lost last week to Intimidate qualifies as a freaky moment that should become an asterisk in the history books.

    It’s true that we backed Little Brown Fox through the year and thought he could have won the Hambletonian had he not jumped in his elim to be disqualified, that was then and this is now—and now, Market Share is undeniably the best. He won’t be worth much to win and the exotics promise to be puny, so we leave this one up to you 

    For the events with older divisions of this year’s Breeders Crown, click here.

    Ray Cotolo contributed to this edition.

  • A Classic problem

    POSTED Oct 9, 2012 By Unknown
    photo courtesy Keeneland
    Whoever is running Wise Dan's Twitter account is banging the drum loudly for respecting the horse's connections for "doing right by the horse" in deciding to send the Grade 1 winner on both dirt and turf to the Breeders' Cup Mile instead of the Classic.

     And I certainly respect that, too. If the Mile gives Wise Dan and his connections the best chance to be competitive, make the stable profitable, preserve the gelding for a six-year-old season, etc. then it is absolutely without a doubt the race he should target.

     What I don't understand about the rhetoric is that everyone seems content to concede that Wise Dan is the best horse in the United States, which I don't understand at all given that going a mile on the turf has never been the division to prove that in this country.

     Yes, turf milers have more prestige in other countries, but that makes sense given that combination includes both a classic distance AND a classic surface in places like England, France, Ireland, etc. It is neither in the United States.

    This is absolutely a down year from a superstar standpoint, and Wise Dan has flashed as much talent as any other horse, but is a Woodbine Mile, Shadwell Turf Mile, Breeders' Cup Mile Grade 1 three pack better than what Point of Entry could accomplish by winning the Breeders' Cup Turf (Man O'War, Sword Dancer, Joe Hirsch, and Breeders' Cup)?

    No.

     As a three-time Grade 1 winner Wise Dan could certainly win Horse of the Year and champion turf male with a Breeders' Cup Mile win, but that scenario also requires other horses to lose. If Point of Entry wins the Turf then Wise Dan won't even win an Eclipse Award let alone the gold one unless he goes on to win the Clark (and at that point he'd be champion older male and Horse of the Year with Point of Entry retaining champion turf male honors).

    Let's be honest, if Todd Pletcher trained Wise Dan and kept saying "he is the best horse in the country" but kept running him in one-mile turf events, the blogosphere would erupt with accusations of "kid gloves" training and insults about the conditioner's ability to train for a classic distance.

    And again, targeting the race that is best for the horse's well being and efficiency of the stable IS always the right thing to do, bar none. The problem is not with the target but the ammunition. That Wise Dan has proved himself as the best in the country without racing in the best races and/or against the best horses is folly. For now he's the best turf miler, and that's it.