• Last Chance For ‘Levy’ Challengers

    POSTED Apr 20, 2011 By Frank Cotolo
    At Yonkers the George Morton Levy Memorial Pacing Series and the Bluechip Matchmaker series feature the last hopes for the older males and mares to go for the big money in the finals next week.

    For two more weeks, there’s a free-for-all harness-handicapping product for “Levy” players is available by clicking here. Take advantage of these tools which, along with our analyses, have presented you with great information leading to winning tickets.

    Sophomore pacers strut in Woodbine elims for one of the season’s first stakes presenting the young division.

    As usual, we visit the no-takeout late Pick 4 at Cal Expo, where the guaranteed pool has been sweetened and we love the little ticket we are offering.

    The Early Glamour Show


    At Woodbine on April 22, two elimination miles feature six-horse fields that compete for a berth in the Ontario Spring Stakes Final next week. These are green sophomore colt-and-gelding pacers, giving us pause to take some chances.

    While these guys are racing for a good spot in the 2011 glamour division they are apt to surprise us, as well as their conditioners. None of this dozen include the expected stars of soph-colt pacers but that doesn’t mean they can’t begin to make noise among the known and unknown on the long list of eligibles.

    This is why we like the chances of Legend’s Luck in the first split. It will be only his second pari-mutuel race, having qualified at Windsor and placed in a conditioned event at Flamboro as the dead-on choice. In his debut he made a bold three-wide move on that small oval that earned him the place spot. This is a great style for Woodbine. Unraced at two, we have to trust that “Luck” can be far better than shown thus far; catching him on the way up at what may be decent odds (his morning line is 7-1).

    The second split also presents one we like with driver Scott Zeron at the reigns. Billy White Sell has won at Woodbine impressively against a similar, if not better, field. This is the more contentious of the two elims, so the six betting interests may be spread out in the odds, giving “Billy” a fair shake at a price.

    Penultimate ‘Levy’ Chase


    In Saturday, April 23’s first Levy division, Race 4, Foreign Officer returns having dominated this series, including the fastest mile in the round one. But one that will be competitive is Erics Legend N. He should have done better in last week’s round but the slop was a factor. He had trailed the field eating mud throughout and still closed well.

    In the second division, Race 5, Real Nice, who went wire to wire with little respect after winning the week before, takes one more shot. He had sustained a bid after being challenged by Giddy Up Lucky in last week’s win. He will be one to watch, along with River Shark.

    In the third division, Race 6, there is no clear favorite. But one to watch is Keystone Rideau. He has not gotten a break in the series. He was interfered two times in a two-week period. If he doesn’t do well here without an excuse, he may not really be of this caliber. 

     

    In the fourth division, Race 8, Gallant Yankee will be a heavy favorite and the one to watch. It will be hard to beat this guy. But one that could pull an upset is Mr Massimo. He did well in the slop as he was starting to close and dead-heated at the wire. Also watch Forensic Z Tam.

    In the nightcap, Race 9, Blatantly Good may do better as he gets the rail for a change. But Lahaye definitely showed his skill as he almost won as an upset. Him and “Good” will be the pair to watch. 

    ‘Match’ Makers          


    Friday, April 22, Yonkers presents the last round for contenders of the Bluechip Matchmaker Final for pacing mares.

    In the first division, Race 6, Ticket To Rock will be the likely favorite after her victory last week. But in a field like this, the horse that will likely beat “Rock” is Shangai Lil. Once again last week, she was forced first over and still gained. Also watch Symphony In Motion and Farmers Tuition.

    In the second division, Race 8, Shacked Up will be the likely public choice after she won last week. But one to watch, once again, is Hula’s Z Tam. She always gets pushed back in the field and is forced to close, which she has been doing impressively as well.

    In the last division, Race 9, the two to beat in this field is Ginger And Fred and Chancey Lady. But one to watch is Twin B Tiara. She has always had a bad trip and now, may get a better. Also watch Cannae Cammie.

    Cal Exotic

    Saturday night, April 23, the no-takeout Pick 4, now with a higher guaranteed pool, sends locals to the gate from Race 11 through Race 14.

    Race 11
    (6) Powergaiterdotcom was burned out early last week while carrying the banner of favorite. That 8 hole hurt him as he rushed early and took the lead wide. Though he faces a few coming off wins here, those wins were not so impressive and could help “Power” to go off higher than he should.

    Race 12
    (4) Whoop And Shout made an impressive winning move last out, racing wide to attain the lead and soar in the stretch. Two winners here shared a victory in a dead heat and could wind up burning the first half. I would add (8) OG’s Si Bon as an upset possibility, since he recently closed strongly for second and may have the room late here to make a significant impression.

    Race 13
    (4) Columbia Court was a monster last week, winning by 10 lengths. We will include him but hope that another choice, (7) Check Raisin, proves that his win was far better, though not by as many lengths, and comes home first as the true overlay.

    Race 14
    (5) TJ Beach Poker may seem an unlikely savior to what would be a huge Pick 4 but if his recent effort is not a fluke he should have this field at his mercy by the half. He made two strong moves last week as the choice and almost won. He is a brave and honest single.
    If you want to use all of these, the 6/48/47/5 ticket cost $8.

    Watch List Action

    On Friday at Woodbine, we are considering eight horses. In Race 3 Earlsact (1) and Paiging Kadabra (4); In Race 4 Virtous Western (10); Race 5 Striker Ray (2) and Stonebridge Royal (8); Race 6 Precious Cammill (1) and in Race 7 Whycantiforgetyou (2) and Chief Karen (5).

    On Saturday at Woodbine, we are considering six horses. In Race 6 Rose Run Invader (2) and Ballykeel Mike (4); Race 9 World Away (1), Grin For Money (3) and Piece Of The Rock (4) and in Race 10 First Victor (2).

    (Ray Cotolo assisted in this edition.)

  • Cotolo’s Harness-Weekend Review, 4-18-11

    POSTED Apr 17, 2011 By Frank Cotolo
    I am going to begin the update this week with thoughts for players, then review the weekend’s action. The focus for players is the National Harness Handicapping Championship (NHHC), which begins this Friday, April 22.

    TwinSpires is participating by giving players three chances to qualify for two seats in the final round, this July, currently scheduled at the Meadowlands (which everyone hopes will be open and in business for live and simulcasting at that time; see story below).

    For three Fridays, players place wagers at a pair of designated tracks, following the rules (click here for contest details). Next Friday the tracks are Cal-Expo and Woodbine. There are five levels of prizes for participants, so the incentives are plentiful, even if you don’t win a seat at the NHHC final.

    The TwinSpires “harness think tank” is here to help you all, as well. Between our dual weekly blogs, the Facebook page and my live tweets (updates at the designated tracks on the three Fridays), you will be privy to any and all of our experience while you make your decisions on wagers. This will be the hands-on information that has presented many double-digit winners since we carried the shop to TwinSpires from YouBet. 

    Reviews


    This could have been a better weekend in the cashing department but it was not a shutout.

    The watch list at Woodbine struck on Friday, with Mustang Art winning at $16.10 and Bold Barry at $6.

    Friday’s “Matchmaker” brought a lucky strike, as the losing part of an entry resulted in a cold exacta with the other part of the coupling. Up Front Kellie Jo was in league with the winner, her stablemate All Spirit, paying $9.40 to win. Our exacta offering was to use Hula’s Z Tam, which finished second and ignited a $30.80 exacta.

    In the “Levy” series, all five divisions drenched from a Saturday rainstorm, our blog choices were reiterated with a live tweet we delivered before the Pick 4. We offered an inexpensive combo that could not deny the heavy choices. We took these low-priced winners and made our combo worth a bit more than 5-1. Our $6 ticket won and paid $34.60.

    Friday night we also presented a few winners via the Twitter account. We remind you again to follow us live at the track on most Friday and Saturday evenings.

    One of our Cal Expo Pick-4 horses, the single in the last leg, scratched. That turned us off to the entire ticket, which turned out to be a good decision, as none of our suggestions in the first three legs produced.

    Harness News

    It’s odds-on, as I write this, that the Meadowlands will survive the current crisis, according to Jeff Gural, the engine behind the privatization of the sport’s flagship track.

    Mr. Gural was on Sirius XM radio on April 16, after an official shutdown of the track was announced due to the refusal of the tellers’ union to aver to conditions for returning to work. Gural said he thinks the track will survive because the union could wind up cooperating.

    Their refusal, he told Harness Racing Update, “had nothing to do with the issue on the table. This all goes back 10, 15 years to, apparently, something Christie Whitman did to them when she was governor and these guys got a raw deal then.”

    What is up in the air is the extent of the facility’s presentations. It could be open for simulcasting only or the union can come to some agreement with Mr. Gural and his group and the transfer to private ownership would continue. At that point, the state has allowed for only 75 days of live harness racing in 2011.

    Thus, the designated tracks in the NHHC could be altered. Stay up to date at Facebook and via my tweets on the details and where to go on the TwinSpires site for contest changes.

    (Cartoon by Thom Pye)

  • SimonSays Handicapping Challenge

    POSTED Apr 16, 2011 By Derek Simon
    Week 12



    Anthony Kelzenberg

    Keenland (4/16/11)

    Race 9: $80 WIN on 5-BRILLIANT SPEED.
    Comments: There is some excellent poly success under the second dam and I like Rosario getting on. This horse has not had the best of trips at Gulfstream.

    Garnet Barnsdale

    Woodbine Harness (4/16/11)

    Race 4: $200 WIN on 3-ANDERLECHT.
    Comments: This horse is known to be ready in his 1st start of the year AND shows two qualifiers at Mohawk with sub 27 second kickers - which I don't believe I have ever seen in my lifetime. Hoping for 2/1, but even 3/2 may be an overlay on this one — seriously.

    Chris Hernandez

    Santa Anita (4/16/11)

    Race 7: $10 WIN on 5-EUROGLIDE.
    Comments: Trained well for his return, looked super schooling on Friday and appears to get a preferable race set-up.

    José D. De León Alejandro

    Oaklawn Park (4/16/11)

    Race 8: $2 WIN on 4-MAY DAY ROSE.
    Race 9: $2 WIN on 7-THE OLE GEN.

    Scott Dick

    Keeneland (4/16/11)

    Race 9: $20 WIN/PLACE on 11-CRISMON CHINA.

  • A Derby Contender No Mo

    POSTED Apr 14, 2011 By Derek Simon
    All last year I gushed about Uncle Mo like a prepubescent girl at a Justin Bieber concert. I noted that his pace figures were the best I’d ever seen from a two-year-old and at night, under a blanket of stars (my wife insisted that I sleep outdoors until I quit gushing), I dreamed the impossible dream. With visions of Citation, Seattle Slew, Affirmed and Secretariat prancing in my head, I imagined that Uncle Mo would win the Triple Crown.

    But that dream has soured.

    Quicker than one could say “unprepared” or “ridiculously light training schedule” or, simply, “Todd Pletcher,” Uncle Mo has fallen from my Derby radar faster than Joe Biden’s eyelids during a recent deficit reduction speech given by his boss, President Barack Obama. (And to think I was made to feel guilty when I nodded off at work once… it’s not like driving a school bus was my career, for heaven’s sake).

    As most racing fans know by now, Uncle Mo, last year’s juvenile champ and this year’s pre-Derby favorite, tasted defeat for the first time in Saturday’s Wood Memorial, when he was third behind Toby’s Corner and Arthur’s Tale as the prohibitive 1-9 favorite. Normally, one loss would not concern me — but it’s the way that “Mo” was defeated that has me crying uncle.

    Look, it’s no secret that I am not a big fan of Todd Pletcher’s training methods and I often lamented that his “kid gloves” approach could prove to be the undoing of Mike Repole’s budding stable star. However, I expected that implosion to occur in the Preakness Stakes, not the Wood.

    Can Uncle Mo bounce back and win the Run for the Roses? Sure, but spare me the comparisons to Secretariat. Yes, “Big Red” lost to a less-than-stellar opponent in Angle Light when he, like Mo, finished third in the 1973 edition of the Wood, but that was Secretariat’s third race as a three-year-old and 12th overall, not his second and fifth respectively. What’s more — and this is crucial — Secretariat rallied off of a slow pace the day he was defeated; Uncle Mo did just the opposite, fading after leading the field through moderate early splits (-4 ESR).

    The significance of this cannot be overstated. Although not as inevitable as death and taxes, leading at the first call of one’s final Derby prep — and not winning — is about as sure a way to get beat in Louisville as there is, short of misjudging the finish line… not like that could ever happen. Since 2000, 13 horses have tried to rebound in the Bluegrass State after setting the pace and losing their last race — only one (Lion Heart) has managed to hit the board. Worse yet, of the 13, three were trained by Todd Pletcher.

    Not exactly the stuff of dreams.



    (Click on image to enlarge)

    Decent Start to ‘Pro’ Career

    While I haven’t exactly been the handicapping version of Blake Griffin, so far, my initial foray into professional betting has gone well. After a relatively strong opening day on Saturday, I struggled a bit with my control on Monday, but regained my composure and have been very disciplined ever since.

    Below is a look at the numbers (remember the dollar totals will not be very impressive initially due to my small starting bankroll of $492.60):



    (Click on image to enlarge)

    Not surprisingly given the rash of low prices I’ve been experiencing lately, it is exotic wagering that has led to all my gains, as the following screenshots from my TwinSpires account amply demonstrate:



    (Click on image to enlarge)

    Blue Grass Stakes and Arkansas Derby Top Weekend Stakes

    The last two Grade I Kentucky Derby preps — the $1 million Arkansas Derby and the $750,000 Blue Grass Stakes — are scheduled to be run on Saturday at Oaklawn Park and Keeneland, respectively. Below is a look at my Win Factor (computerized fair odds) line and Pace Profile Report summary for each race (remember, the fair odds are just a guideline):

    Arkansas Derby



    (Click on image to enlarge)


    (Click on image to enlarge)

    Blue Grass Stakes


    (Click on image to enlarge)


    (Click on image to enlarge)

  • ‘Levy’ Level Playing Fields In Round 4

    POSTED Apr 13, 2011 By Frank Cotolo
    All the features the sport offers this weekend remain at Yonkers with rounds four of the George Morton Levy Memorial Pacing Series and the Bluechip Matchmaker series.

    Aside from last year’s defending champ looking for a series sweep (Foiled Again is yet to lose a race), this year’s older pacing crew has been competitive, with different winners in most of the divisions. The high-pursed divisions continue with full fields and great wagering opportunities this week as the cast works out a final few for the April 30 final.

    Again this week, there’s a free-for-all harness-handicapping product for “Levy” players is available by clicking here. Take advantage of these tools through the series.

    Of course, we re-visit the no-takeout late Pick 4 at Cal Expo, with focused suggested contenders for you to use any way you like in a ticket to hit it. And, an extra treat, a look at the Yonkers Pick 4 on the Levy program.

    ‘Levy’ Rolls Again


    Five divisions are presented this week, again with $50,000 purses in each, Saturday, April 16.

    In the first division, Race 5, there seems no definite favorite. Still, one that may bring a price is Trueys Legacy. He was first over at the half and three-quarters last week and still gained, though he couldn’t get by Legal Litigator and Valentino, who closed sternly right at the wire. Also watch Mainland Key N. This guy has proven that a race doesn’t have to set up for him and he can close huge at a price (we gave him to you when he paid better than 30-1 in a round two weeks back).

    In the second division, Race 6, Foreign Officer may be the public choice as he went the fastest in the first leg and gained well last time out but got fourth. Still there is one that could beat him: Keystone Rideau. He suffered interference and fell back in the pack, finishing second to last. We think this horse is capable of pulling an upset here. 

    In the third division, Race 7, Atochia will be the likely choice, though the one to beat is Urgent Action. He seems to love this track after he won the $67,200 Sagamore Hill Final. Also watch out for Sand Savage. If he can stay flat, he will be a bomb.

    In the fourth division, Race 8, once again, there may not be a definite favorite, although, Blatantly Good, who has become the talent he was last year, will get money. His trainer, Mark Kesmodel, has brought the pacer around in tip-top shape. Also, This Is Wyatt should race well again, sharing some kind of favoritism.

    In the series’ nightcap, Race 9, Foiled Again will again be the one to beat. If you are looking for a price against him, Forensic Z Tam is the one. He closed last week and got second. Also watch Mr Massimo. 

    The ‘Match’ Game 


    Friday, April 15, Yonkers presents the next round of the Bluechip Matchmaker for pacing mares.

    In the first division, Race 6, Shacked Up and Rev Me Up will be the two likely public choices. But one that will be competitive at a price could be Cannae Cammie. She closed well from the outside and now gets the rail.

    In the second division, Race 8, Ginger And Fred will be one to beat. She won the “Matchmaker” last year and is looking for the double. But one that may bring a price is Up Front Kellie Jo. Even though she draws the outside, she may be more productive than her last effort, where she had barely any room in the passing lane. Also watch Hula’s Z Tam.

    In the third division, Race 9, it is a mystery who will be the favorite. But it might be Symphony In Motion coming off a win last week. But a mare we suggested last week and couldn’t catch the leader, Shangai Lil, will be a good challenge to this field after she was hung last time and finished second. Also watch Flirtiscape. She made a good attempt to get the whole field at the wire but was unsuccessful. She finished fourth by 2 lengths.

    In the nightcap, Race 11, Anndrovette and Tomorrowpan will be the two favorites after their races last week. But a good value in this event is Twin B Tiara. She had a disadvantage last time out as she had some broken equipment, finishing last. But in this event, things might go her way as the likely two choices may duel for the front. Also watch Farmers Tuition.

    Yonkers Pick-4 Pool Pumped


    There is a $15,000 guaranteed Pick 4 at Yonkers on April 16, thanks to the USTA Strategic Wagering Program. Let’s take a shot at it.

    Race 7
    (1) Atochia may finally get up to the wire first, but (2) Sand Savage can produce a price if he can stay flat, which is very likely. The public may ignore him. (4) Urgent Action has a good shot of keeping his win streak going after winning the “Sagamore.”

    Race 8
    (1a) Southern Allie has been competitive throughout the Levy series. (2) Gallant Yankee has also been sharp. It will be tough to see who can beat either of these guys. (4) Blatantly Good, however, has also done well in this series and may be a value here.

    Race 9
    (1) Foiled Again is a good single, as this horse is practically impossible to beat in this division. 

    Race 10
    (1) Power Of A Moment is coming off of two good qualifiers. It could matter. (8) Clown’s Smile is the likely favorite and will be hard to beat but must overcome the outside post.

    1,2,4/1,2,4/1/1,8 is an $18 ticket. Add and subtract horses to fit your budget. But as a suggestion, 1,2,4/1,2/1/8 is good value for $6.

    Cal Exotic

    Saturday night, April 16, the no-takeout Pick 4 sets up again with similar crews.

    Race 11
    (3) Bo Knows Power was trapped behind a dead-heat pair still full of pace. (7) Bronte Anas Boy tossed in a stinker after giving fair warning of speed the race before; dangerous longshot to start here.

    Race 12
    (5) Laredos Goose seems sharp enough to take another race, closing again. This time the price may be better, pumping up the results.

    Race 13
    (1) One Hot Tamale held sway in an awful overland trip at 17-1 and could be the monster here. (9) Yourmyaddiction was wide early and tanked but bet well enough, finishing third, to use again.    

    Race 14
    (1) Cruiserluckyseven comes off the best race in this sorry group, closing well to get second at 7-1. He may be the prohibitive favorite but with an upset or two in the other legs he could cap a great ticket .

    If you want to use all of these, the ticket cost $8.

    Watch List Action

    On Friday at Woodbine, we are considering five horses. In Race 3, Bold Barry (1); Race 7, Dance Until Dawn (6); Race 10, Mustang Art (1) and Canaco Run (8); and Race 11, Virtuous Western (10).

    On Saturday at Woodbine, we are watching eight horses. In Race 1, Hour Lavec (1); Race 2, Rose Run Invader (8); Race 4, Hilarious Halo (2) and Campasser (6); Race 5, Biletnikoff (6); Race 6, Up Front Ben (2); Race 9, St Elmo Hero (5); and Race 11, Noble Duharas (1).

    (Ray Cotolo assisted in this edition.)

  • Cotolo’s Harness-Weekend Review, 4-11-11

    POSTED Apr 10, 2011 By Frank Cotolo
    The George Morton Levy Memorial Pacing Series went into round three on April 9 at Yonkers and except for one minor upset it was “Public-Choice Theater,” as I like to call those races where prohibitive favorites serve at the pleasure of the wagering majority.

    We even endorsed two choices. Blatantly Good won at a mere $2.60 and Real Nice joined the series’ winners’ roster with a win price of $4.60. They may have been two passes for you, considering the offerings; we passed. In the remaining four divisions, we finished fifth, recommended a pass, and then finished third and fourth, respectively.

    In round two we mentioned that Valentino was getting ready for a big race. He waited until round three, winning and paying a remarkable $31. If you keep up with our suggested contenders and buy into the big-value choices thwart Public Choice Theater, you might have had that one.

    But on the night before, in the Bluechip Matchmaker series, we delivered on the same night as the choice was made. Breakheart Pass won a division and paid $47.60, enough to tip the scales of weekend play into the profit column with black ink to spare. The series also produced Anndrovette, though only at a win price of $3.

    The Sagamore Hill and Petticoat finals were both won by the favorites and if you used those most likely winners with our possible upset horses, you hit an exacta and a trifecta. The Sagamore trifecta was completed by our choices, in order—Starspangledpanner and Kid Cruiser, for a $37.80 exotic. In the Petticoat, the choice with our choice, Keystone Katherine, paid higher for the exacta, offering $41.80.

    Never overlook some of our longer choices as additions to exotics with dead-on favorites; our history in that department is well documented as successful. Even box plays are profitable, obvious, considering some of the place prices on horses that we give you to win but fail by a nose or head or so.

    We only had two of four, again, in the Cal Expo no-takeout late Pick 4 on April 9. One of them, Long Last Look, had its win price shrunk by a dead heat; it only paid $2.80. We followed that first leg still alive as we hit with Well Heeled at $6.60.

    Player Thoughts

    Because we insist on playing for value, it sometimes feels as if everyone on the planet gets memos about horses in certain races and you aren’t on the recipient list. Not aware of the favorite having a greater-than-great chance to win, you find what you feel is a terrific overlay, play it, and watch your money burn before your eyes as the public choice wins “as if it had eyes,” as the saying goes.

    A strong respect for the public’s picks is always smart. You have to think twice before you try to bury a 2-5 choice with a 10-1 shot. You will always lose more times than you win. That respect should sometimes sway you from playing the race; not because you are bowing to the majority but because you can find better territories to invest your money.

    Picking your spot based on value is a part of understanding true value. So, if you have respect for the public and the general math of pari-mutuel racing, you will see value in lower-priced horses and stop feeling like there really is a memo that goes around to everyone but you.

    That 2-1 shot you know has a big chance to win? Should it be 4-5, making it pure value even if at 2-1 it is the race’s choice and you join the public endorsing it? Be aware that many public handicappers, making people think that it means “longshot,” have corrupted the issue of “value.”

    We present many horses in this blog that are longshots and many win at huge prices. But we also admit that sometimes getting a horse home at 5-2 is generous for that situation. You have to be the judge; you have to make the decision based on a number of factors. But always, remember value wears many faces.

    Harness News

    Last week we told you Lisagain could beat Hypnotic Blue Chip in the Spring Pacing Championship Final at Woodbine but he got second. This past weekend the tables turned in a $45,000 Open pace as Lisagain, trained by Jeff Gillis, got up out of the 2-hole to win in 1:50. Both horses made two moves, proving that they are to be reckoned with in the older pacer division this season.

    We are following older trotters with star status, so here is the latest on two monsters. Arch Madness returned to the race in a $35,000 Open Handicap trot Chester and won in the slop. He was not the choice. Favorite status belonged to Lucky Jim, making his 2011 debut. At 2-5, he made a break in the stretch while attempting a come-from-behind rally.  

    “Arch,” a Trond Smedshammer student, has another trotter, Likeabatoutahell, doing great so far this season at Pocono Downs. With John Campbell up, “Like” won for the second time in three tries this season; his lifetime earnings are now over $722,000.

    (Cartoon by Thom Pye)

  • SimonSays Handicapping Challenge

    POSTED Apr 8, 2011 By Derek Simon
    Week 11



    Anthony Kelzenberg

    Keenland (4/9/11)

    Race 9: $100 to WIN on 3-WYOMIA
    $10 EXACTA BOX 3 & 6.

    Garnet Barnsdale

    Woodbine Harness (4/8/11)

    Race 4: $0.20 PICK FOUR 1,2,5,7,8 / 3,5,6,8-10 / 1,2,5,7,10 / 6,7 ($60 total). Pasted right from my betting account, so pay attention!

    Keenland (4/9/11)

    Race 10: It appears that for a 7F race, there is a TON of speed signed on and a handful of horses that run one way — on top. The track appears to be favoring speed opening day, even more reason for the jocks to vie and battle for the front. I am boxing 6 stalker/closer types thinking this race is going to fall apart at the head of the lane.

    BET(S): $2 TRIFECTA BOX 2,5,6,8,11,12
    $4 EXACTA BOX 2,5,6,8,11,12

    Chris Hernandez

    Santa Anita (4/9/11)

    Race 10 (Santa Anita Derby): $10 WIN on 4-SILVER MEDALLION

    José D. De León Alejandro

    Hawthorne (4/9/11)

    Race 7 (Illinois Derby): $2 WIN on 6-SOUR

    Aqueduct (4/9/11)

    Race 9 (Carter Handicap): $2 WIN on 7-APRIORITY

  • Becoming a Pro Gambler, Part Deux

    POSTED Apr 7, 2011 By Derek Simon
    One of the most popular articles I wrote for Youbet.com (in the days before the merger with TwinSpires), was called “Becoming a Professional Gambler” and it detailed my attempt to make a living as a professional horseplayer. Not a public “pro” or one that has found the secret to beating the living snot out of the races but is willing to share his/her brilliant insights for a reasonable daily, weekly or monthly sum, mind you. No, my desire was to become an honest-to-goodness fulltime player — like one of my handicapping heroes, Barry Meadow.

    Initially, my quest went well. After a week, I had nearly doubled my initial $500 bankroll ($500 was chosen because I felt that was an amount that nearly everybody could afford); a few days later, I topped the $700 mark in earnings.

    Then, shortly after I began “super sizing” my lunch orders, confident that my paper earnings would accommodate the additional expenditure, my best-laid plans, as the Scottish poet Robert Burns once predicted (probably with me in mind), went astray — as I noted in a follow-up article:
    “Two weeks ago, I promised to document my journey as a professional bettor and, this week, I’m sad (kind of) to announce that that journey has ended. I noted at the beginning of my quest that success hinged on my mechanical, or systematic, techniques (like my Win Factor computerized fair odds line) to carry the bulk of the analytical load, as I doubted that I would have much time to do my own handicapping. In fact, outside of my free selection last week, I didn’t look at the past performances at all. And, while my Win Factor method did, in fact, produce positive numbers (see stats below) it did so in such a haphazard fashion as to age me 17 years in 17 days.

    After nearly tripling my bankroll in my first week of ‘pro’ wagering, I begin to lose… and lose… and lose some more. If it had been a weight loss program, I’d have considered it an unqualified success, but it wasn’t — even though I definitely felt like The Biggest Loser.

    When I finally threw in the towel, I had lost an astounding 24 consecutive bets on overlays going to post at odds of 3-1 or greater. By way of comparison, the longest losing streak I’ve had with my qualified free selections this year is eight. What’s more, my starting bankroll of $500, which had once topped $1,200, stood at a mere $528 by the time I walked away, half-crazy and muttering to myself. It got so bad toward the end that, while I understood the plot of ‘Inception,’ I was confused by old ‘Ernest’ movies.”
    Well, call me crazy, but I’ve decided to try again. One thing the “Score with Simon” promotion has taught me is that conditions are rarely ideal when it comes to betting. Consequently, success is often dependent on one’s ability to adapt — whether it’s having to wager $10,000 in a day, determine one’s bets hours before post time (without the aid of the tote board) or handicapping until the wee hours of the morning.

    So, in addition to trying to score every Saturday, I’m going to start betting — seriously — during the week as well. And, just like last time, I’ll be documenting all my successes and failures, via blog posts, screen shots of my TwinSpires account, etc. If things go well, I figure I can be an inspiration to other would-be pro bettors; if things go badly… well, Charlie Sheen is still looking for assistants, isn’t he?

    Staring Bankroll: $492.60 (hey, that’s what was in my account at last check).


    (Click on image to enlarge)

    Stay tuned…

    Pinpointing the Preps

    Recently, I’ve had some questions about the pace figures earned in various Kentucky Derby preps to date. Below is a chart summarizing that data:


    (Click on image to enlarge)

    Keeneland Opens

    If you like big fields and even bigger payoffs — and who in their right mind doesn’t? — you’ll love the racing at Keeneland, which begins its spring meeting on Friday. And to help handicappers nab some of those juicy mutuels I’ve prepared a couple of charts — the first showing the performance of favorites under a variety of different circumstances, and the second detailing the average speed rations at various race distances on both turf and Polytrack.


    (Click on image to enlarge)

    Early Speed Ration (ESR): A measurement of a horse’s early energy expenditure in relation to the total race requirements. The lower the figure, the greater the horse’s early exertion in that event.

    Late Speed Ration (LSR): A measurement of a horse’s late energy expenditure in relation to the total race requirements. The higher the figure, the greater the horse’s late exertion in that event.

    Early Speed Ration

    -15= Demanding. -10= Brisk. -5= Moderate. 0= Soft.

    Late Speed Ration

    0= Excellent. -5= Good. -10= Fair. -15= Poor.

  • Pacers Fire In Finals, Series And Exotics

    POSTED Apr 6, 2011 By Frank Cotolo
    The Sagamore Hill and Petticoat series conclude this weekend as the action at Yonkers continues to dominate the sport’s headlines. The stalwart vet pacing males make up another six fields in round three of the George Morton Levy Memorial Pacing Series and the Bluechip Matchmaker mares will be at it again with four divisions.

    As well, we visit the no-takeout late Pick 4 at Cal Expo where we are still ahead after striking with a small ticket, no less doing well with the individual winners on losing combo tickets.

    Round Three Of ‘Levy’


    The lucrative series presents another six checks for $50,000 each on Saturday, April 9 in the featured Levy series. This week’s free-for-all harness-handicapping product for Levy players is available by clicking here. Take advantage of these tools, which will be available every Saturday during the series.

    In the first division of the Levy series, Race 4, Blatantly Good will be the likely favorite and rightfully so, as he will be one to beat. He was first over and just lost in round two after showing his 2010 talent by winning round one. Also watch Versado. He was first over last week and held on for third.

    Race 7 presents the second division, where Real Nice draws the inside, a great spot for him to come back to his Levy-series form. He could win on the front but most likely will find a comfortable spot close and either drive on the inside up the rail or pull to pass late. Malicious is getting better and sits just behind “Nice,” while the favorite entry is outside.

    In Race 8, Legal Litigator won’t offer 4-1 like he did winning last week but he should be in the mix. We like Go Go Solano to catch the speedy few that might burn out before three-quarters and open the path for a closer.

    Race 9’s Levy field is tough; you can make a case for a few horses here depending upon the flow of the race. However, if Gallant Yankee takes off from post 1 and hugs the inside, he may be a low-priced easy victor. This is one I would be very wary playing.

    The penultimate Levy split of the evening, Race 11, finds This Is Wyatt getting all the dough. Room for an upset could come in the path of Classic Rock Nroll. Staying flat and haunting the speed, “Classic” could prove to be the big favorite’s undoing.

    In the Levy nightcap, Race 12, Foiled Again looks to campaign for a series sweep. However, Blueridge Western has been making some moves that indicate he is going to work a trip that could foil “Foiled.” Go for the upset or pass.

    Series Stoppers


    In the $67,200 Sagamore Hill final on Saturday, Urgent Action may get the choice status but Starspangledpanner may be the value as both look for a series sweep. “Stars” will be fair odds over 2-1 as he could beat Urgent Action. Electrofire is another to watch as he lost by a neck to Manip U Later Bb. Also, Kid Cruiser could be in the mix. He is moving a bit to the inside, but also just lost to Stars; “Kid” was first over from the half.

    In the $66,000 Petticoat final Friday night, Full Picture will be the one to beat. She won by about 13 lengths last time at 1-9. If anyone can beat her it’s Keystone Katherine. She went first over last time and won by 5 lengths. Also watch Mystical Diva.

    ‘Match’ Points 


    Friday, April 8, Yonkers presents the third round of the Bluechip Matchmaker.

    In the first division, Race 7, Ginger And Fred, the defending champion, will be the one to beat. But one horse that can beat her is Ramona Disomma. She just keeps getting the worst trips and since she is coming out of the 8 hole, she might be able to close big at high odds. Also watch Shangai Lil.

    In the second division, Race 8, Symphony In Motion is a beaten favorite and will likely be the choice again. But if this race turns out like last weeks trip for “Symphony,” Farmers Tuition and Tomorrowpan will get a shot to beat her. “Pan” was shuffled back and still closed for third. “Farmer” was shuffled back as well and also closed for third.

    In the third division, Race 9, On The Glass will be the likely public choice. But the one that could beat her is Anndrovette. She won easy last time. Also, Park Avenue could beat “Glass.”

    In the last division, Race 11, Save My Shark will be the likely favorite. But the one that can beat her is Breakheart Pass. She was hung last time; this week she can get a better trip. Also watch Run On Luck.

    Cal Exotic

    Saturday night, April 9, another no-takeout Pick 4 gets going late in the program at the California oval.

    Race 11
    (2) Bronte Anas Boy (2) fired early last week, got the lead wide and tired at 42-1, a good sign for a big start in this exotic. Long Last Look (4) continues to fool the public and win at odds far higher than its chances. There is no way to leave him out here.

    Race 12
    (3) Well Heeled (1) settled for second as the choice, going first over and wasting ground. He may make amends easily here from the rail. Pip’s Jenny G (6) lost steam after a sharp start gunning for the top. That could be a warning sign at 9-1, so look for a big price here.

    Race 13
    (3) Devilish Donnie (1) dueled with “Bronte” (see Race 11) in that early battle for the lead and also faded. But this guy is no stranger to the winner’s circle here and he was only 5-1 tanking. This could be a good single.    

    Race 14
    (1) This is the toughest of the quartet. Bronte (2) and Thatwilldo A are coming off trips that signal improvement. The rest of the field has either had a week off or is showing bad form. So even though those two were 24-1 and 21-1 respectively last out, there is little choice here beyond them.

    If you want to use all of these, the ticket cost $16.

    (Ray Cotolo assisted in this edition.)

  • Cotolo’s Harness-Weekend Review, 4-4-11

    POSTED Apr 3, 2011 By Frank Cotolo
    What a great weekend just passed for Yonkers bettors following our blog. Through the years we have had great success with the George Morton Levy Memorial Series and this past Saturday’s second round ranked right up there with some of the best results we have had, dating back to the YouBet blogs.

    On Saturday’s six-division “Levy” parade, our 50-percent hit rate produced top prices for any track, no less the Yonkers’ half mile where mile racing (remember that only the overnight events go at the 1 1/16-mile distance; the Levy and other stakes are raced at the traditional mile).

    In order, we gave you the winners of the first two divisions. Legal Litigator won and paid $10.60, followed by Southern Allie, winning as the third choice, paying $7.30. Then the bomb fell as our top contender in Race 9, Mainland Key N, won and paid $67. The math for a return-on-investment for this week’s sextet of Levy events is impressive and not just for the success of “Key.” Those three prices are sterling for this series and four-turn affairs at Yonkers.

    Stay with us for four more weeks of Levy races, which also feature the TwinSpires free-for-all handicapping products you can inspect while evaluating these top Free-For-All pacing affairs.

    Also at Yonkers on Friday, we gave you PL Dragon, an $8.50 payoff to win. And a $13.30 exactor [sic] at Woodbine in the Spring Pacing Championship Final was dished out here with Hypnotic Blue Chip winning ($3.70) and Lisagain finishing second on Saturday.

    At Cal Expo we could only manage one winner in the Pick 4. It was a great surprise to us to watch the crowd rally behind Don’t Dally Witch and watch it win paying only $4.40.

    Speaking of watching, a horse we followed on our Cal-Expo watch list that continued to lose respect from the crowd while still winning did it again Saturday night. If you continued to follow Long Last Look, you caught him again, this time paying a remarkable $37.

    We were very much alive with another longshot, this one at Woodbine in the Youthful Final. We pointed to Fox Valley Yukon, which the crowd hated and let go off at 65-1.

    The pacer soared to the lead off the gate and stayed second as the dead-on choice took over. In the stretch there were severe moments of anticipation as “Yukon” gained real estate up the rail and the favorite tired.

    Most of us watching the race in those waning moments thought Yukon could wear down the choice. From the outside, the second choice gained late and just nipped Yukon for second.

    Harness News

    Last year’s exclusive Hambletonian Trail blog offered high hopes for Broad Bahn, a young trotter with excessive talent for trainer Noel Daley. But ill health plagued the horse and a bone fracture was discovered after winning a Breeders Crown elim. It was determined that the colt had been racing with the condition while having a stellar season.

    Broad Bahn, Daley reports, is on the mend and preparing for action. The trainer told reporter Ken Weingartner, “[The colt] is pretty good. I plan on racing him towards the end of May if he is progressing.” Daley hopes the colt could compete with the glamour boys of trotting this year.

    Pocono Downs is in full gear again this spring. Horses and horsemen from all over adorn the northern Pennyslvania race programs, especially since the Meadowlands is on an unusual hiatus while reorganizing through April.

    Driver Ron Pierce was there over the weekend, along with regulars like Anthony Napolitano and Joe Pavia, Jr. Our old pal Howard Parker is picking up some drives there, too and continually fools the public with his talents. We urge you to keep an eye on Howard’s horses, which are overlooked a lot due to the driver’s low profile and the fact that his former cohort (Pierce on the California circuit years ago) gets so much more wagering recognition when he is in the same race.

    Speaking of the old California crew, the son of West Coast driver/trainer Tim Maier has taken up tack at Pompano, during the Florida track’s extended season. Jason Maier, 28, has almost 100 wins as a driver and is a trainer/owner of stock now in Florida.

    (Cartoon by Thom Pye)

  • Sunday Selection

    POSTED By Derek Simon
    Gulfstream Park (11:55 a.m. MDT)
    Race 3 * 7.0 Furlongs * Dirt

    4-Indiano
    Fair Odds: 5-2
    6-Travelin Man (4/5)
    Fair Odds: 2-1
    3-Little Drama
    Fair Odds: 8-1

    COMMENTS: I’m not completely sold on Travelin Man at this point, although he is likely to enjoy an even easier trip with the scratch of BLACK N BEAUTY. Still, he is sure to be overbet and his LSRs indicate he may be susceptible down the lane if he gets any pressure early (which I’m hoping will come from LITTLE DRAMA). Hence, I’ll look for value in the win and show pools with INDIANO, the best Panamanian import since Laffit Pincay. Last time, the son of Indian Charlie rallied to post a 98 Brisnet speed figure and excellent -3 LSR (Travelin Man earned figures of 98 and -22 respectively in his latest). LITTLE DRAMA could be a threat if jockey Joe Bravo presses the issue early… although I’m not at all confident he will.

    BET(S): WIN & SHOW on 4.

  • SimonSays Handicapping Challenge

    POSTED Apr 1, 2011 By Derek Simon
    Week 10

    Anthony Kelzenberg

    Rosehill (04/01/11)
    Race 7A

    Key horse: 2-SMART MISSILE

    Comments: Smart Missile is a very fast horse. He's possibly the fastest horse in the field. But even more important he has an excellent turn of foot and his only two finishing splits on record are the best in a field with plenty of speed. He also gets to start close to the inside in post 5, which is a major advantage compared to his other accomplished rivals. I think this horse has the goods.

    Bets ($100 total):

    $70 win on 2-Smart Missile
    $1 trifecta key 2/1,4,6 ($6)
    $1 trifecta 2/1,4,6/1,4,6,8,9 ($12)
    $1 trifecta 1,4,6/2/1,4,6,8,9 ($12)

    José D. De León Alejandro

    Gulfstream Park (04/02/11)
    Race 7

    8-Longhunter (GB)

    Comments: Leparoux/Clement is a dangerous combo with this kind of horses, he needed the last one to get seasoned and looked like the winner at the mile (distance for today), but the last 100 meters were poisoning for him with a good one in Data Link.

    Gulfstream Park (04/03/11)
    Race 10

    8-Flashpoint

    Comments: He may not have the long distance pedigree we would like, but his Tomlinson is good enough for the way this race is expected to develop with him in front attempting to go wire-to-wire in a speed-favoring track that will be very fast on Sunday. He is fast, knows how to win and has a damn good trainer by his side. He is here for a reason and believe me: it is not sentimentalism.

    Garnet Barnsdale

    Plays for Woodbine Harness (4/2/11):

    Race 4: 8-CAT FOUR steps up in class after cutting the two fastest 3/4 mile splits that were recorded this winter in his last 2 starts only to tire in the lane and get beat by the same horse twice (ST. PETE STAR #4 in Race 5). The CAT is likely to be overlooked by the wagering public this time because of the losses at the lower class, but make no mistake, this horse is now DEAD fit and was winning at levels higher than this last year when on his game. He can also work out a trip and is not a one-dimensional speedster.

    Bets: $100 WIN & PLACE on 8
    $1 PICK FOUR 8 with 4 with ALL with ALL

    Chris Hernandez

    No Wagers this week.