Derek Simon's Saturday Selections
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COMMENTS: As I mentioned on my podcast, I love 5-NEWBIE’s pace figures and think this race hits him squarely between the eyes (yes, I know, that sounds painful, but, trust me, it's a good thing).
BET(S): WIN on 5 at odds of 3-1 or greater.
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COMMENTS: This race is very intriguing to me, as I think it could offer a great return. 2-ONE TUFF STORM has faltered in each of his last two starts, but both came over very wet tracks. I expect him to bounce back over a dry surface today. 5-FIRST GUESS tops my Win Factor (computerized fair odds) line, but he’s unproven over a dirt surface. 9-VICE LORD ran great last time, earning a -3 late speed ration (LSR). ALABAMA CAY is a get it or spit it type that could go a long way on the front today (should he clear One Tuff Storm).
BET(S): WIN on 2 at odds of 8-1 or greater and/or WIN on 5 at odds of 6-1 or greater. Note — Although not an “official” bet, I would suggest that players use 7 on top in at least some of their exotic wagers… and really watch the tote board in this race. Look for value.
Derek Simon’s Free Selection Statistics
Races (Selections): 56 (62)
Wins: 22
Rate: 39.3%
Return: $156.60
ROI: +26.29%
(This year's published selections through 10/21/11.)
Note: Play is restricted to any horse(s) that meet my fair odds requirements (when listed). Multiple qualifying contenders will be bet separately, however, multiple bets will be adjusted to equal a single wager and the payoffs averaged. For example a winning WIN/PLACE wager paying $6.20 on top and $4.30 underneath would count as a single bet paying $5.25 (the average of $6.20 and $4.30).
9 comments:
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Derek Simon shares his view on the 5-NEWBIE race, expecting to win big, he hopes to profit on the dry surface. In addition, the chances of winning at different numbered odds have been emphasized. This battle could be as tense as a round geometry dash game!
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