• Hit Me Baby One More Time

    POSTED Jan 20, 2012
    Last week, I revisited the work of one of my favorite old-time handicapping authors, William L. Scott. I re-tooled his famous method presented in “Investing at the Racetrack” and used it to handicap an entire card at Aqueduct.

    Not surprisingly (at least to me), the method lost money.

    In the interest of fairness, however, I’ve decided to give Mr. Scott’s system (or at least my contemporary spin on it) another try. After all, one of Scott’s claims was that he had never experienced three consecutive losing days at any one track.

    So far, we’re 0-1 at Aqueduct.

    Now, because I don’t have the final odds — a crucial component of Scott’s technique — at my disposal as I’m writing this, I’ve decided that, like last time, we’ll use the morning line odds instead. Frankly, based on some testing I did, this is really not such a huge disadvantage.

    Using my database of over 6,000 races run from 2004 to present and limiting my inquiry to races that produced a single winner (no dead heats or winning entries), I discovered the following:

    (Click on image to enlarge)

    Notice that the morning line favorites were nearly as successful as the actual race favorites — even when I adjusted for the fact that there were more of them (due to ties).

    Hence, without further ado, here are my selections and wagers for both Aqueduct on Friday, Jan. 20 (for the PDF version, please click HERE):

    (Click on image to view clearly)

    Because I’m such a nice guy — or a glutton for punishment, I’m not sure which — I also produced a report for Saturday’s races at Fair Grounds that can be accessed HERE.

    Weekend Handicapping Reports

    Again because I’m a nice guy or a glutton for punishment, I’ve produced a bunch of free handicapping reports for this weekend’s races. Enjoy!


    Aqueduct (01/20/12)
    Aqueduct (01/21/12)
    Fair Grounds (01/21/12)


    Aqueduct (01/20/12)
    Aqueduct (01/21/12)
    Dubai (01/20/12)
    Dubai (01/21/12)
    Fair Grounds (01/21/12)


    Aqueduct (01/20/12)
    Fair Grounds (01/21/12)

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