• Good opinions should make good money

    POSTED May 5, 2012
    I feel I had too many right ideas this week to come up with nothing in this year's Kentucky Derby (not counting future wagers).

    The good:
    -I thought the West Coast horses were best throughout the year, and they ran 1-2-5, including a horse I had ranked on top most of the year until I foolishly went for Hansen
    -I didn't like the Wood Memorial at all, and neither Gemologist nor Alpha threatened despite many people liking their chances. I don't expect either to be major players in top-level races later this year unless there is some serious attrition.
    -In discussing why I liked Hansen to win the Kentucky Derby, I said that I thought he'd track Trinniberg on the first turn and backside before taking control on the far turn. I had the first part of that right.
    -I liked I'll Have Another enough that he came up in conversation, and the top two questions involving his chances were related to the post and rookie rider Mario Gutierrez, and I thought the post would actually help Mario because he'd be able to stay in the clear.

    The bad:
    -I didn't like Bodemeister--and like Hansen--he got the trip I expected except I thought Hansen would be the one with the lead turning for home instead of Bodemeister. We could be looking at a Curlin-type situation here. Curlin didn't race at two, won the Arkansas Derby, and finished third in the Kentucky Derby before going on to win consecutive Horse of the Year awards.
    -I didn't give Dullahan enough credit even though I liked the horse he beat in the Blue Grass. Yeah, different surface and all that, but I should have used him more in underneath slots even if I didn't like him to win. He's clearly a talented horse.
    -Speaking of liking runner ups, I was all over Summer Applause in the Oaks and completely ignored the filly who beat her in the Fair Grounds Oaks, Believe You Can. Well, like I'll Have Another completed the Santa Anita Derby-Kentucky Derby double, Believe You Can completed the Fair Grounds Oaks-Kentucky Oaks double, and I was left holding losing tickets on a runner-up.
    -I thought Union Rags would be the favorite, and he was up until post time. I can't imagine the money bet to win on Bodemeister that dropped him from 6-to-1 to 4.2-to-1 in a $30-million pool. Actually, I can. He had about 16.57% of the pool then had 22.3%, a difference of about $1.7-million.

    The ugly:
    Picking a Kentucky Derby winner is a trophy of sorts for public handicappers, Turf writers, and any horse racing enthusiast. I had liked I'll Have Another for awhile and foolishly fell in love with Hansen when I thought he'd get the trip he did get. Unfortunately, Hansen wasn't nearly good enough, and even though the good points above give me confidence in my handicapping, the bottom line is what matters most, and it should look a lot more robust after seeing the race and this group as clearly as I had all year.
  • 2 comments:

    pennpick said...

    i can feel your pain ed. i wrote down my top picks last night. And switched bode for rags.would have had the superfecta. got swayed by the favortism.

    Anonymous said...

    Feel ur pain Ed, tks for the blog along the way, have loved every minute of this years derby (until the last 50metres that is). i was the one who joked you for "jumping off IHA" so quick on derek's post1 post.

    Im also annoyed for being 'right', but not hitting big. I loved Bodemeister, all along. Had him large fixed at $21, and saw him sitting BEHIND trinniberg, and others just not being able to deal with him come the stretch, on a moderately quick pace. I had him bolting in by 5L, thats how keen i was.

    Alas...its gutwrenching to get that right and know it SHOULD have happened like that. I cant blame M Smith (well i can, but i try not to...just the way the horse went). I didnt like IHA but bet also at $21 as a saver so won on the race, and had the tri easy (but left out IHA on top as just used him as saver win bet).

    The 'oh what could have been' hurts more than the joy of small winnings. SB.

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