Catching my breath following a whirlwind 78 hours in Louisville and already looking forward both to the Preakness Stakes in less than two weeks and Kentucky Derby 140 in less than a year. One of the things I got right in my pre-race analysis was that Orb would be the most exciting "Triple Crown" prospect to emerge from the Derby with a win. That seems to be the case, as I can't imagine this kind of Triple Crown chatter had Itsmyluckyday or Giant Finish gotten the job done. So can Orb do it? Certainly he can, and I would say at this point it's reasonable to expect it. Even a conservative 3-to-2 to win the Preakness and Belmont would make him 21-to-4 to win both (and thus the Triple Crown), but he's more likely even money in Baltimore and 3-to-5 in the Belmont for odds of 13-to-3 to sweep. Talking about him winning a Triple Crown makes sense right now considering he has a 15%-20% to do so, but what's surprised me is the gusto of such talk with a common refrain being, "Best chance in a long time to actually do it." Certainly Orb has a better chance than Mine That Bird or Giacomo, but I'm not sure his chance is as good as Smarty Jones or Big Brown.
In Orb's favor is his running style. He closed in the Derby behind fast fractions, but I don't think he needs to be that far back, which is good news for the type of trip that typically wins the Preakness and Belmont (Orb won't win the Preakness if he gets the same trip Animal Kingdom or Mine that Bird got). The other factor, of course, is competition. A horse capable of running a 109 Brisnet Speed Rating (as Orb did in the Kentucky Derby) is certainly better than one whose ceiling is 100, but in terms of continuing to win that 109 is harder to sustain against 105+ types than if the 100 horses if facing 90 types. Orb to me has the constitution and connections to handle the three races in five weeks, but his competition this year is a better group than Big Brown contended with in 2008. Smarty Jones and Street Sense, meanwhile were extraordinary talents with the unfortunate happenstance to have been born the same year as horses like Birdstone and Curlin, respectively. The sheet below lists the previous 17 Kentucky Derby winners sorted by those I thought had the best chance of winning the Triple Crown following the roses; Smarty Jones tops the list as most likely with Giacomo at the bottom as least likely. It was a tough call putting Smarty Jones on top because the chasm between talent and competition was much bigger for Big Brown, but I do think Smarty Jones was the superior racehorse, and the excitement generated by his run bringing a record crowd to Belmont Park.
Leave it
to my colleague Ed DeRosa to make me
question one of my deepest-held handicapping beliefs — the notion that pace
makes the race. Never shy with his opinion (at least on topics of an equine
nature), I received the following missive from Ed prior to this week’s TwinSpires
podcast:
“I'm sick
of people overvaluing pace on the final figure. Fast horses go fast,” Ed opined
in an e-mail to me. “The Derby,
especially, doesn't help those with a turf dynamic. I don't want to hear how
the speed number is low because the pace was slow. You have to go fast in the
Derby to keep up.”
Ed
concluded by asking me for my thoughts, which, I must admit, were somewhat mixed…
at least at first. While I definitely saw the merit in what he was saying —
I’ve continually stressed that pace figures (even my own, which I love more
than Joanie loves Chachi)
are inferior to speed figures as predictive tools — I still fervently believed
that the early fractions of a race can greatly influence its final time. Hence,
I have always looked for Kentucky Derby contenders that appeared capable of comfortably coping with the -10 early
speed ration (ESR) they were likely to encounter in Louisville (since 1990, the
Derby pacesetter has averaged a -9.8 ESR).
(Click on image to enlarge)
In fact,
this was one of the big reasons I downgraded the chances of I’ll Have Another
in last year’s Run for the Roses. In the “Cons” section of the 2012 Kentucky
Derby Guide I produced for Brisnet.com
(this year’s edition will be available starting next week) I wrote the
following:
“Doug O’Neill trainee has never won
from further back than second at the first call, yet he’s recorded a -1 ESR in
each his last two starts. Sorry, but that ain’t happening in Louisville. He’s
either going to have to expend more energy early or come from further off the
pace, neither of which he’s proven he can do.”
Of course,
I was right about the scenario that I’ll Have Another would face on the first
Saturday in May of 2012 — not only was the son of Flower Alley seventh, back
eight lengths, at the first call in the Derby that day, but he recorded a -6
ESR to boot. However, I was wrong about the ultimate impact of that scenario.
As it turned out, I’ll Have Another had no trouble rallying from off the pace
to capture the 138th
running of America’s most famous horse race.
And that got
me to thinking: Was Ed right? Is pace overrated when it comes to deciding who can and who cannot win the Kentucky Derby?
To answer
that question I first needed to determine what effect the pace of a race had on
its final speed figure. So I decided to find out by using my database of
thousands of races from tracks across the country. I conducted my survey as
follows:
1) I recorded the Brisnet speed figure (BSF) of random race
winners and noted the general distance (route/sprint) and surface
(dirt/turf/synthetic) at/over which those numbers were earned.
2) I subtracted the associated race pars from the speed
figures obtained above, which allowed me to compare races from across the class
spectrum. For example, if a particular race featured a par of 103 and the
winner earned a 97 BSF, I would record its final speed rating as a -6 (97 – 103
= -6).
3) Lastly, I determined the average adjusted speed rating
for a given range of ESRs earned by the first-call leader(s) of the races in
question.
The
results were startling:
(Click on image to enlarge)
As
you can see, the ideal pace in terms of producing the best, or fastest, speed
rating on dirt is a moderate to brisk one (-5 to -9 ESR). This is true in both
sprints and routes (ignoring samples of fewer than 10 horses). On synthetic and
turf surfaces, the best Brisnet speed figures in relation to par
come in races featuring soft to moderate ESRs.
(Click on image to enlarge)
However,
the real stunner — at least to me — is that slower relative
paces (higher
ESRs) don’t
appear to alter the winner’s speed figure that much and fast paces
(lower ESRs),
which many, myself included, have always assumed acted
as springboards to higher figs, in fact, did just the opposite — stifling
the
final speed rating across all categories, save turf sprints.
Interestingly,
this jibes with an observation made by Andrew Beyer nearly 40 years ago. In the
original Picking Winners, published in 1975, Beyer had this to say about pace:
“A
horse’s fractional times do not affect his final time. Horses are never ‘burned
up’ by fast fractions. There is no such thing as a ‘killing pace.’”
Ironically, this passage was subsequently removed from
later editions of Beyer’s seminal work, as the author claimed to have seen the
light — due primarily to the 1981 Kentucky
Derby.
"If
I wanted to test the influence of pace, I might have designed an experiment
like this: Have the early leaders in the Kentucky Derby run the fastest first
quarter-mile in the history of the race and judge its effect,” Beyer wrote in The
Winning Horseplayer, which was first published in 1994. "
… The Derby field was filled with brilliant speed horses, notably Proud Appeal
and Cure the Blues. They all went charging for the lead, and a bullet named Top
Avenger got it, running the quarter in 21-4/5 seconds — the fastest fraction at
Churchill Downs in 107 years — and the half-mile in a swift :45-1/5. Every
horse who was near this breathtaking pace collapsed. The horses who were
running 1-2-3-4-5 after three-quarters of a mile finished 19-10-18-16-17. As
they backed up, all the stretch runners and plodders passed them. The first
five finishers at the end of the Derby were horses who had been running
15-19-10-17-20 after three-quarters.
"The
winner, Pleasant Colony, was a genuinely good horse, but nondescript plodders
like Woodchopper and Television Studio had rallied to finish ahead of superior
horses like Cure the Blues and Proud Appeal by margins of 20 or 30 lengths,”
Beyer pointed out. “The outcome of the Derby seemed to have relatively little
to do with the ability of the horses; it was much more the result of pace."
Notice,
however (and I think this is a key point), that Beyer’s “epiphany” does not
actually relate to the final running time of the race (Ed’s point); it only
pertains to individual contenders. And guess what? That blistering :45-1/5
opening half-mile in 1981 led to a very commonplace 2:02 final clocking — tied with
six other editions as the 27th fastest Derby ever… hardly the stuff
of legends.
There’s
an unwritten rule in gambling and politics that to get at the truth one needs
only to “follow the money.”
Popularized
in the 1976 Academy Award-winning film “All
the President’s Men,” the phrase was supposedly uttered by Deep
Throat, the anonymous source that helped Washington Post reporters Carl Bernstein and Bob Woodward unearth
the Watergate Scandal. In truth — or at least according to the book of the same
name — Deep Throat never actually said “follow the money” or even “show me the money,” but,
hey, it’s still a great quote.
In
sporting circles, of course, the notion of following the money typically refers
to the betting. After all, it is little secret that betting lines and
pari-mutuel pools are generally efficient — certainly more so than polls and
voting contests… which brings me to this year’s Horse of the Year award.
While
I appreciate that Horse of the Year means different things to different people,
I wondered what the odds might look like should the top contenders for the
award actually meet on the racetrack. Now, I’m aware that such a meeting would
not necessarily prove which horse is best — a single race rarely does – but at
the very least it would give one an idea as to who the public thought was best.
Unfortunately,
I can’t tell you how the public would have wagered on a Horse of the Year
contest… I know, I know, I dangle the carrot and then I yank it away. However,
I can show you what my computerized
fair odds line looks like (the carrot has returned).
Let’s
start with some ground rules:
1)
Our mythical race is 1-1/8 miles long. Yes, I know that 10 furlongs is
considered a “classic” distance and is, perhaps, a more logical choice.
However, I wanted to find a middle ground for the milers like Wise Dan and the
marathon runners like Little Mike.
2)
All the horses will be rated on their current, year-ending form and assumed to
be coming into the race on equal rest, with the exception of I’ll Have Another,
who was retired with an injury prior to the Belmont Stakes in June and,
therefore, get an “unknown” (UK) Win Factor Rating.
So,
with that out of the way, the winner of the 2013 Horse of the Year award, based
on ability and current form, is (drum roll please)…
(Click on
image to enlarge)
I’ve
got to admit, even though the rankings above are computer-derived, I can’t
argue very much with them. I do, in fact, think Wise Dan is the most talented
of the Horse-of-the-Year contenders and, regardless of the front-speed bias
that many believed aided Fort Larned in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, there is no
denying that his effort in that event was superb. I also think that the gap
between him and I’ll Have Another is justified.
Of
course, I expect that Groupie Doll’s fans will balk at the fact that my Win
Factor Report ranks her last among the Horse of the Year candidates, but
personally I think that’s fair. Remember, our mythical race is at nine — not six
or seven — furlongs and Groupie Doll was 0-for-3 routing in 2012. In fact, the
daughter of Bowman’s Band has never won beyond a mile.
As
for Wise Dan on top, that makes perfect sense to me. As I’ve stated numerous
times before, I think he is a great talent and a horse proven over multiple
surfaces and at multiple distances. What’s not to like?
Any thought that I'll Have Another could win Horse of the Year if chaos reigned in the Breeders' Cup is long gone after the event lived up to its championships moniker with Eclipse Award-winning performances throughout the two-day, 15-race, $25.5-million extravaganza.
Several performances were good enough to ensure not only a championship but also a unanimous championship. It would be extremely difficult to consider anyone except Groupie Doll, Royal Delta, or Shanghai Bobby for an Eclipse Award in their respective divisions. And he didn't race on Breeders' Cup day, but I'll Have Another is also a likely unanimous selection. Others probably clinching championships include Fort Larned (older male) and Wise Dan (turf male). That makes the loser in all this Little Mike, who won the Turf Classic, Arlington Million, and Breeders' Cup Turf but doesn't have the cache Wise Dan does. The Breeders' Cup Classic goes another year without its winner taking home the Horse of the Year trophy (it's been since Curlin in 2007), and the eventual Horse of the Year hasn't even run in the Classic in two of the past four years. Two-year-old filly will come down between Beholder and Executiveprivilege with Questing likely to win three-year-old filly. Male sprinter and turf female are up for grabs. In the latter category, Tapitsfly has two Grade 1 wins while Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf winner Zagora only has one, but it was the big one. If Tapitsfly wins again this year that would probably shore it up for her, otherwise Zagora will probably get it. But overall, Breeders' Cup has to be pleased with the international collection of horses it brought together. A South American horse won the Marathon after qualifying via a Win & You're In race, Aidan O'Brien winning the Juvenile Turf, and a good contingent of international journalists covering the event.
Well, OK, maybe we need some stars, but their creation should be organic not forced just because of a Grade 1 win or notoriety on the Triple Crown trail. Granted, the collective departures of Grade 1 winners Bodemeister, Hansen, I'll Have Another, Paynter, and Union Rags in the past three months is not ideal but nor is it likely to have any meaningful impact on the sport.
Exhibit "A" is this year's Travers Stakes, a Grade 1 race in which the only Grade 1-winning entrant (Liaison) was on a seven-race losing streak. As I said in a previous blog post, this field was more like a bunch of also rans playing out the loser's bracket of a tournament already won by the aforementioned retired horses than it was an exercise in determining the best three-year-old. Indeed, my over/under line on number of Grade 1 wins by the 11 starters going forward is 2.5 for their careers and .5 for this year because the only Grade 1 races remaining for three-year-old males are the Malibu (7 furlongs, dirt), Jamaica (1 1/8 miles, turf), and Hollywood Derby (1 1/4 miles, turf). I.e., I don't give this group much of a chance to beat older in Grade 1 events. But who cares? Well, racing fans at large certainly don't. Attendance for the motley crew concert was 46,528, up 8.1% from the previous year, and all-sources handle also increased, up 10.8% to $36,597,173. If I'll Have Another had won the Triple Crown and raced in this year's Travers would that have increased those figures? Of course, but a star of that magnitude is in a different galaxy than the balls of gas that claim Union Rags would have done anything meaningful for racing. Let's use Royal Delta as an example. Last year's champion three-year-old filly and Breeders' Cup Ladies Classic winner sold for $8.5-million at the Keeneland November breeding stock sale and easily could have been retired, but she returned this year and while her presence in races certainly gives some of them a "headline name", her star power is not so massive that it has its own gravity, as I would have a hard time arguing that her presence has mattered to Dubai, Churchill, Delaware Park, or Saratoga.
Yet had she been retired following that sale, I have no doubt that the din of cries claiming that "racing needs stars" and "the breeding business is the tail wagging the dog" would have been deafening. Racing does need stars. It needs the Smarty Jones and Zenyatta and Frankel types to show it can be done and to fuel our imagination when the NBT (next big thing) comes around. But we don't need to pretend that Bodemeister was a star of that magnitude. Yes, I was bullish on his talent. I thought he was good enough to win the Breeders' Cup Classic and be Horse of the Year this year, but someone else will accomplish those things, and regardless of what races Bodemeister may have won between the Preakness and Breeders' Cup it's doubtful that he would have done enough to influence the Breeders' Cup's business. Which brings us back to Frankel, who certainly would affect Breeders' Cup business, as the crush of media would turn the World Championships into a true international phenomenon, and maybe even Bethenny Frankel would get involved on the hype.
He is the type of horse that moves the dial. The others are just interchangeable Grade 1 winners. Fun to watch and certainly capable of providing a thrill a la this year's Travers Stakes but not needed to help the sport grow.
Discussion of Hansen's return at Prairie Meadows this weekend, Black Caviar's bizarre win in the Diamond Jubilee and a taped interview with retired professional gambler and author Barry Meadow from 2006.
Sure, there's still about 2 1/2 weeks remaining for the first half of the calendar year, but the Belmont Stakes closes the book on the Triple Crown and with it the first half of the racing year.
Triple Crown Insider hints at a turning of the page to the Road to the Breeders' Cup World Championships, but until then Jon Siegel and Joel Cunningham take a final look at the Belmont Stakes.
My view of the Belmont Stakes is Andy Serling's view, "The Belmont was a race with three real contenders. One (Dullahan) didn't run a step and
the other two (Union Rags & Paynter) comprised the exacta. It was hardly a resurrection."
I see it as far more likely that Bodemeister will threaten I'll Have Another for three-year-old supremacy come the end of the year than will Union Rags, but the better question from a Horse of the Year standpoint is can either Bodemeister or Union Rags run with the top horses in the older male division?
We'll probably have to wait until fall to answer that question, as both Bodemeister and Union Rags will probably contest races restricted to three-year-olds this summer, but I have to think any wresting of an Eclipse Award from I'll Have Another will have to include a Breeders' Cup win.
One thing is for sure, unless Black Caviar comes over here and wins the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint followed by the Cigar Mile, it's fairly certain already that the streak of three consecutive female Horses of the Year will come to a close, as I don't see any distaffer in this group capable of running with the likes of Wise Dan, Game On Dude, Shackleford, etc.
What are you most looking forward to this summer and fall in racing?
TwinSpires' harness racing guru Frank Cotolo joins host Derek Simon and guest handicapper Garnet Barnsdale of Horse Racing Nation to discuss all the harness happenings at Mohawk Raceway on Saturday. Derek also recaps the Belmont Stakes and briefly discusses the importance of early speed in American dirt races.
I don't think anyone expected that anything would happen in today's Belmont Stakes to dethrone I'll Have Another from the top spot in the three-year-old division, and those expectations were met when Union Rags surged up the rail to defeat Paynter and win the Belmont Stakes in 2:30.42.
I'll Have Another is in the driver's seat for the Eclipse Award as champion three-year-old male, but his car is parked and the emergency brake is stuck in the on position. And at this point, if any horse can dethrone him from the top spot, it's Union Rags who some would say was defeated not by superior competition in the Florida and Kentucky Derbys but troubled trips.
If Union Rags runs the table, I'll Have Another will have the head to head nod with the Derby win (Union Rags was seventh), but Union Rags has a classic win to his credit now, too, and a win against elder males later in the year following a big summer could be enough to propel him past the three-time Grade 1 winner.
Bodemeister could re-enter the picture with a big summer and fall as well, but working against him is that I'll Have Another beat him on the square in both the Derby & Preakness. A pie-in-the-sky Haskell-Travers-Goodwood-BC Classic grand slam would be hard to deny him the championship (and Horse of the Year), but any slip up without a Breeders' Cup win probably stymies his chances.
If I were to make a line now on who the champion three-year-old male will be it'd look like this (10% takeout):
I'll Have Another, evens
Bodemeister, 5-to-2
Union Rags, 7-to-2
All others, 9-to-1
Even if I'll Have Another stays ahead of the pack, it should be a fun summer. Zayat chasing a big win after finishing second in all three Triple Crown races plus a good group of sprinter and middle distance horses among this crop (Trinniberg, Hansen, etc.) will make for great theatre hopefully all year.
There's no Triple Crown try, but the Belmont Stakes is still a $1-million race, and the Pick 6 and Pick 4 bets that end with the feature both offer guaranteed pools of $1-million, so there's still plenty of excitement to be had if you land on the right horses.
Hopefully the numbers above correspond to the right horses. Nothing terribly clever except for Royal Currier in the True North who is 12-to-1 on the morning line, but I fear will be bet down more than that. Even my "B" selections should offer value, though, and it could be a rare "vertical" race for me in that I look at beating the favorites out of the top two spots.
As for the Belmont Stakes, I thought Dullahan was the biggest threat to upset I'll Have Another's
Triple Crown try, and now he's simply the biggest threat to win the
race. The problem is that even though his chances of winning have
increased, so too will the money bet on him, and if he's less than
2-to-1 then I'll have a hard time betting him to win. There are other
opportunities, though. I'll be mostly singling him in the $1-million
guaranteed pool Pick 4, and hooking him up with Atigun, Optimizer,
and/or My Adonis in the exotics could pay well as well.
But enough about that, who does Toga Tout like?!! (not updated post IHA's scratch but worth a watch for funzo)
Those associated with horse
racing often talk about the highs and lows associated with investing yourself
in the Sport of Kings.
My investment is typically
at the betting windows, and I’ve never felt this bad after losing a wager. When
I lose a bet, it’s money and/or pride on the line, but when bad befalls my
favorite sport and a horse I genuinely enjoyed watching run, the cut is deeper.
How much flesh do racing
fans have left, though? After serving as a punching bag for most of the spring,
those bruises are still raw. Count me among those who doesn’t think a Triple
Crown will solve the sport’s ills, but its pursuit is certainly some of the
finest drama in all of sports, and something the masses still tune into.
So rather than feeling like
Caligula presiding over a great a party on Saturday, racing fans are left
feeling more like Job—wondering why all these bad things happen to racing.
And yet part of the beauty
of horse racing is there is never too much time for self loathing. Horses don't know it's Christmas, and there is
still a Belmont Stakes tomorrow along with 12 other races, including three
other Grade 1 events, and Belmont Stakes or not, all the horses in the stable
area still need to eat, train, and be cared for.
I’ll Have Another’s scratch
eliminates the chance of collective euphoria with 100,000 other people, but
many will be thrilled with the outcome of tomorrow’s race. Someone’s dream will
come true even after this nightmare.
This isn’t
the way it was supposed to end. Instead of winning — or losing — the Triple
Crown on the racetrack, I’ll Have Another was defeated in the barn, when it was
discovered that he had a tendon injury.
The colt’s
trainer, Doug O’ Neill, delivered the tragic news on the “Dan Patrick Show.”
“I'll Have
Another is officially out of the Belmont,” O'Neill said. “We scanned his left
front leg and he's got the start of tendinitis going on in his front leg. He's
not 100 percent and we ain't taking any chances.”
Hinting that
the horse may never race again, O’Neill added: “It's not tragic, but it's a
huge disappointment. I'm just so bummed for the horse, obviously, and then for
the whole team.”
Racing fans seem
to share O’Neill’s disappointment. In fact, based on what I read on various
social media sites, the Mayans were wrong only about the date — officially, the
world ended on June 8, 2012.
It is to
those I say… well, perhaps I can best express my sentiments with a song:
Feel better?
Yeah, my kids don’t find it amusing when I perform that number for them either,
especially since my singing voice sounds like a prepubescentbullfrog with a drinking problem. But,
let’s be honest: If I’ll Have Another had
run — and run badly — many of the same folks weeping and gnashing their teeth
now would still be doing so… it’s just a matter of timing.
Pat Forde of
Yahoo Sports notes that “I’ll Have Another is only the third Triple Crown
aspirant to miss the Belmont Stakes due to injury. The others are Bold Venture
in 1936 and Burgoo King in 1932.”
But that doesn’t give the whole picture.
Remember Majestic Prince?
Like I’ll Have Another, Majestic Prince won both the Kentucky Derby and
Preakness (in 1969) and, also like I’ll Have Another, the son of Raise a Native was initially ruled
out of the Belmont due to an undisclosed injury (believed to be a tendon
problem).
I say “initially” because public pressure, including a featured article in Sports Illustrated, prompted Majestic
Prince’s owner Francis Murray Patrick McMahon to override his trainer Johnny
Longden’s (yes, that Johnny Longden —
the former champion rider) decision not to ship to New York.
Majestic
Prince finished second behind Arts and Letters in the Belmont Stakes. And
despite besting that rival in two out of three head-to-head meetings in the Triple
Crown series, Arts and Letters wound up being named the nation’s top three-year-old,
as well as Horse of the Year in 1969.
Meanwhile, Majestic
Prince never raced again.
The fact is none
of us knows whether or not I’ll Have
Another would have won the Belmont. Personally, I think a lot of longtime
racing observers like myself — in our heart of hearts — doubted that Doug O’Neill’s
sophomore star was in the same class as previous Triple Crown champions like
Secretariat or Citation or Affirmed (personally, I wasn’t even sure I’ll Have
Another was as good as some of the near-misses, like Spectacular Bid). But, now,
fans of the horse can forever assert that he was... and that may be the silver
lining in this dark cloud.
Look, I’ll
be frank: I thought very highly of Barbaro after his scintillating win in the
2006 Kentucky Derby, but I’m not so sure that even had he not been injured he
would have beaten Bernardini in the Preakness Stakes. Bernardini was fast — his
speed figures dwarfed those of Barbaro; yet, to those who loved him, Barbaro
will forever be the greatest horse of his generation.
(Click on image to enlarge)
(Click on image to enlarge)
To those who
love him, I’ll Have Another will forever be the greatest of his generation as
well. And that’s all that really matters.
I’ll
Have Another’s Triple Crown quest has become downright Shakespearean: it is to be
or not to be. Of course, the racing fan side of me — my left side as it turns
out — desperately wants to see history made in Elmont, NY on Saturday. Yet, the
value bettor side of me is screaming for an upset.
Let’s
be clear: I’ll Have Another will be an underlay this weekend. Given the inevitable
souvenir ticket purchases — you can even buy them online — he almost has to be. Plus, as we’ve seen in years
past, when a Triple Crown is on the line, rational betting often takes a leave
of absence.
There
have been 30 horses that came to the Big Apple in search of eternal glory — almost
all of them were bet like they’d already achieved it. The last winner of the Kentucky
Derby and Preakness not to be favored
in the Belmont Stakes was Assault in 1946… and he wound up winning the Triple
Crown. Still, as the chart below reflects, a $2 win bet on all of the Triple Crown hopefuls in the Belmont has produced an
ROI of -41.5 percent, including a -78.42 percent ROI over the past 50 years.
(Click on image to enlarge)
Will
I’ll Have Another stop the bleeding? My heart says yes, my head says no.
For
a detailed analysis of the Test of Champions, including my suggested wagers,
check out the video below (and remember to get your Ultimate Belmont Stakes
Handicapping Package, which includes my special Belmont Betting Guide, at Brisnet.com):
Free Pace Profile Report
Click HERE for a free Pace Profile Report for races 6-11 from Belmont Park on Saturday, June 9, 2012.
A classic contender having Mr. Prospector among his ancestry
is no great shakes—it seems almost every horse has the late Raise a
Native stallion somewhere in his or her blood.
Still, while outcrosses to Mr. Prospector are often valued in
the breeding shed, they typically do not do as well on the Triple Crown trail.
Indeed, those looking for some helping picking this year’s Belmont Stakes (G1) winner
should look no further than the starter’s sire line, as three-year-old males
who are direct descendants of Mr. Prospector have won 13 of the past 17 Belmont
Stakes, including 11 of the past 14, seven of the last nine, and each of the past three.
Perhaps even more impressive is the fact that Mr. Prospector
is directly responsible for those 13 recent Belmont winners through seven different sons:
Afleet, Fappiano, Forty Niner, Fusaichi Pegasus, Gone West, Gulch, Kingmambo,
and Seeking the Gold.
“The thing to point out is the branches,” said pedigree
consultant Anne Peters. “The Gulch and Fappiano branches are your main ones and
show how the Mr. Prospector line is diverging away from the speed that it was
known for. He was so brilliant, that breeders tend to keep piling on the
stamina with him, and it’s worked.”
The 2005 winner, eventual three-year-old male champion Afleet
Alex, is by the Afleet stallion Northern Afleet out of the Roberto-line mare
Maggy Hawk. Afleet Alex was the first winner in three years not out of a
Northern Dancer-line mare and the first in four years not out of a Native
Dancer-line mare.
“Three winners by Mr. Prospector-line sires out of Northern
Dancer-line mares [Birdstone, Gulch, and Summer Bird] are out of Storm Bird
mares, which is interesting because Storm Bird is another quirky horse who was
a brilliant two-year-old but tends to be an influence of stamina,” Peters said.
“[Thunder Gulch’s sire] Gulch was a versatile miler, but Storm Bird seems to
have given Thunder Gulch some stamina.”
Another popular Mr. Prospector-Northern Dancer cross is
through Vice Regent, grandsire of Sarava’s dam, Rhythm of Life, by Deputy
Minister, and sire of Victory Gallop’s dam, Victorious Lil.
“The Mr. Prospector-Northern Dancer cross continues to prove
effective on the classic level,” Peters said. “Besides producing Belmont
winners Hansel, Thunder Gulch, Empire Maker, and Birdstone, the last three have
all proven effective sires of stamina.
“Although a sprinter/miler himself, Distorted Humor, by Forty
Niner out of a Danzig mare is from the same cross. He has turned out classic
winners Funny Cide (Kentucky Derby (G1) and
Preakness Stakes (G1)) and [2010 Belmont & 2011 Breeders' Cup Classic winner] Drosselmeyer.”
As the longest of the American classics at 1 1/2 miles,
handicappers often place a lot of emphasis on the different influences in each
stallion’s pedigree. Few horses will race 1 1/2 miles (at least on dirt) again,
and the right combination of speed and stamina can help a developing
three-year-old male navigate the unique course.
Afleet Alex is the product of a Florida breeding program known for its
speed. His sire, Northern Afleet, never won beyond 1 1/8 miles, and his dam,
the Hawkster mare Maggy Hawk, won just one one-mile race from four starts.
Looking deeper, though, Maggy Hawk’s great grandsire,
Roberto, by Hail to Reason, is a major classic influence, and the sires of her
tail female family, *Hawaii, *Sensitivo, and Sir Gaylord are all known for
throwing distance-type horses.
“It starts with the sire and then you want to look at all the
males in the pedigree,” Lauren Stich said. “I think for any horse to go [1 1/2
miles] you need stamina from the second dam and third dam’s sire. Distance and
surface comes from the males in the pedigree and class comes from the tail
female family.”
Unbridled, a son of Fappiano who won the 1990 Kentucky Derby
and finished fifth in that year’s Belmont, is
responsible for two Belmont
winners: Empire Maker in 2003 and Birdstone in ’04. Unbridled is out of Gana
Facil, by Prix du Jockey Club (French Derby) winner *Le Fabuleux.
“Unbridled is one of the few places you can find *Le
Fabuleux, and that’s a tremendous staying influence,” Peters said.
“Crytpoclearance is by Fappiano out of a Hoist the Flag mare, and that’s
another stamina influence.”
*Ribot is the grandsire of Hoist the Flag and appears within
five generations of four other Belmont winners. *Ribot-line mares produced
three Belmont winners from 1988-’94 while Victory Gallop and Editor’s Note are
by stallions who are out of *Ribot-line mares.
The leading sire of Belmont Stakes winners is Lexington, who
sired five winners from 1868 through 1881. No sire with an active crop of
three-year-olds has sired more than one Belmont Stakes winner, and no one from this year's group is by a sire with a Belmont Stakes to his credit.
From this group, only Guayana Star Dweej has the Mr. P-Northern Dancer cross that appears in seven of Mr. Prospectors recent winners, but both I'll Have Another and Dullahan do have Northern Dancer influence on their dam's side. I'll Have Another's broodmare sire, Arch, is out of a Northern Dancer mare, and Dullahan's second dam is by Northern Dancer (i.e., his dam's broodmare sire is Northern Dancer).
I have two Belmont Stakes anthems for Mr. Prospector. The first is The Rentals "Friends of P" and the second is Steve Winwood's Valerie with me changing the chorus to "Mr. Peeeeeeeeeeeeeeee's progeny."
Welcome to the TwinSpires Blog. Our contributors will be continually updating posts to offer commentary, insight, advice and expert opinions on horse racing and wagering. The goal is to help you win more and become a better all around horse player.
TwinSpires' horse racing author, handicapper, and podcast host, Derek Simon of Denver, Colo. offers his insightful, humorous and sometimes controversial take on the horse racing industry. He even publishes the ROI on the picks he gives out.
TwinSpires' harness racing expert, Frank Cotolo follows all of the big North
American circuits throughout the year, providing the best value picks and
latest news from the sulky.
The Director of Marketing for Bloodstock Research Information Services (BRIS) and a lifelong Thoroughbred racing enthusiast and astute handicapper, Ed joined Churchill Downs Inc. following nine years as a writer and editor with Thoroughbred Times.
A writer and editor who has been following horse racing for fifteen years. Peter has written books for the Daily Racing Form Press; Crown; and Simon and Schuster; among other publishers, and regular features in The Horseplayer Magazine.
