Showing posts with label Bodemeister. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Bodemeister. Show all posts

  • Stars? We don't need no stinkin' stars

    POSTED Sep 5, 2012 By Unknown
    Well, OK, maybe we need some stars, but their creation should be organic not forced just because of a Grade 1 win or notoriety on the Triple Crown trail.

     Granted, the collective departures of Grade 1 winners Bodemeister, Hansen, I'll Have Another, Paynter, and Union Rags in the past three months is not ideal but nor is it likely to have any meaningful impact on the sport.
    Exhibit "A" is this year's Travers Stakes, a Grade 1 race in which the only Grade 1-winning entrant (Liaison) was on a seven-race losing streak. As I said in a previous blog post, this field was more like a bunch of also rans playing out the loser's bracket of a tournament already won by the aforementioned retired horses than it was an exercise in determining the best three-year-old.

     Indeed, my over/under line on number of Grade 1 wins by the 11 starters going forward is 2.5 for their careers and .5 for this year because the only Grade 1 races remaining for three-year-old males are the Malibu (7 furlongs, dirt), Jamaica (1 1/8 miles, turf), and Hollywood Derby (1 1/4 miles, turf). I.e., I don't give this group much of a chance to beat older in Grade 1 events.

     But who cares? Well, racing fans at large certainly don't. Attendance for the motley crew concert was 46,528, up 8.1% from the previous year, and all-sources handle also increased, up 10.8% to $36,597,173.

     If I'll Have Another had won the Triple Crown and raced in this year's Travers would that have increased those figures? Of course, but a star of that magnitude is in a different galaxy than the balls of gas that claim Union Rags would have done anything meaningful for racing.

     Let's use Royal Delta as an example. Last year's champion three-year-old filly and Breeders' Cup Ladies Classic winner sold for $8.5-million at the Keeneland November breeding stock sale and easily could have been retired, but she returned this year and while her presence in races certainly gives some of them a "headline name", her star power is not so massive that it has its own gravity, as I would have a hard time arguing that her presence has mattered to Dubai, Churchill, Delaware Park, or Saratoga.



     Yet had she been retired following that sale, I have no doubt that the din of cries claiming that "racing needs stars" and "the breeding business is the tail wagging the dog" would have been deafening.

     Racing does need stars. It needs the Smarty Jones and Zenyatta and Frankel types to show it can be done and to fuel our imagination when the NBT (next big thing) comes around. But we don't need to pretend that Bodemeister was a star of that magnitude. Yes, I was bullish on his talent. I thought he was good enough to win the Breeders' Cup Classic and be Horse of the Year this year, but someone else will accomplish those things, and regardless of what races Bodemeister may have won between the Preakness and Breeders' Cup it's doubtful that he would have done enough to influence the Breeders' Cup's business.

     Which brings us back to Frankel, who certainly would affect Breeders' Cup business, as the crush of media would turn the World Championships into a true international phenomenon, and maybe even Bethenny Frankel would get involved on the hype.

    He is the type of horse that moves the dial. The others are just interchangeable Grade 1 winners. Fun to watch and certainly capable of providing a thrill a la this year's Travers Stakes but not needed to help the sport grow.

  • Fit vs. Fragile

    POSTED Aug 23, 2012 By Derek Simon

    Rail Trip
    A few years ago, I wrote about the Freshened Horse Fallacy, the theory that the modern-day thoroughbred simply cannot withstand the rigors of day-to-day training and — heaven forbid — racing on a consistent basis.

    I pointed out that much of this hysteria is based on the belief that thoroughbreds are getting weaker and more fragile due to the emphasis American breeders are putting on speed, rather than stamina. 

    The premature retirements of both I’ll Have Another and Bodemeister, the 1-2 finishers in this year’s Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes, seems to back this contention up, as does the recent tendon tear that unethically targeted last year’s juvenile champion Hansen and likely relegated his career to the history books as well.

    That horses are making fewer and fewer starts is indisputable. In 1975, the average thoroughbred went to post 10.2 times a year; in 2011, the average number of starts per year was down to 6.2.

    Of course, whether or not this has to do with dubious DNA or a changing economic and social landscape is very much in doubt. After all, does anybody seriously think that we’ll ever see another Triple Crown winner compete past the age of five, which both Assault and Citation did (in the 1940s)?

    What’s more, if American stud farms are, in fact, breeding for speed these days, they’re having about as much success as Kris Jenner did breeding for class and dignity. While all eight of the quarter horse world records for distances up to 550 yards were set in the last three years and standardbred records seem to fall every week, only a handful of thoroughbred world-record times have been recorded in the new millennium. Some, like the seven-furlong mark, date back to when the Internet was merely a sparkle in Al Gore’s eyes.

    Personally, I think the notion that breeding for speed has led to the decline of the thoroughbred racehorse is largely bunk. Likewise, the view that more rest and fewer races is the only way to effectively deal with this “delicate” situation is also malarkey.

    When I penned “The Freshened Horse Fallacy,” I presented some test data to prove this and I want to do the same thing here, only with new, up-to-date statistics. But before I reveal the numbers, let me first establish the ground rules, as set in that original piece:
    Of course, the biggest challenge one faces when attempting to prove or disprove a racetrack “fact” is obtaining truly independent variables. The reality is that almost no single factor contributing to the outcome of a horse race can be easily isolated. Take, for example, speed and form — what’s the real difference? Typically, a horse that runs fast also runs well, right? After all, it’s not often that a 30-length loser will post an outstanding Beyer figure.

    So, my first hurdle was distinguishing between a “freshening” and layoffs resulting from injury or infirmity. Thus, I decided to concentrate solely on post-time favorites (ignoring entries). That way, I could be reasonably certain that I was apprising only those contestants that had shown at least a semblance of class and form in the recent past.

    Now, does this ensure an autonomous sample? Of course not. Obviously, the date of a horse’s most recent outing is going to influence the crowd’s betting habits, but at least it helps eliminate those hapless nags that neither racing nor resting will aid.

    First, I looked at favorites as a whole (provided they were single betting interests with at least one lifetime start) from assorted races run during 2004-2009:

    Races: 5,786
    Won: 2,075
    Rate: 35.9%
    ROI: -15.49%

    As you can see, these figures are right in line with long-term national averages. Thus, my database would appear to be “fair.” Next, I looked at favorites that were coming back on less than 10 days rest:

    Races: 250
    Won: 98
    Rate: 39.2%
    ROI: -8.36%
    At this point, let’s take a DeLorean back to the future and take a peek at the current figures, culled from my brand new database consisting of 4,873 races. First, all the favorites:
    Races: 4,873
    Won: 1,811
    Rate: 37.2%
    ROI: -16.82%

    What immediately strikes me, of course, is that although favorites are winning more now than before (37.2 percent vs. 35.9 percent), the ROI is even worse (-16.82 percent compared to -15.49 percent). Just more proof that value betting is the only way to profit in today’s game.

    However, that’s not what my test and this article are about. So, with that in mind, let’s see if the current crop of thoroughbreds can stand up to the “rigors” of a recent race. Below are the digits for favorites competing within 10 days of their last start:

    Races: 225
    Won: 97
    Rate: 43.1%
    ROI: -10.11%

    Once again, we see a huge improvement in the stats — an improvement that seems to argue against an increasingly brittle breed. This test also demonstrates why one should (at the very least) be hesitant to accept horseracing “truths” at face value.

    Far too often, they are anything but.

    Six-Figure Saturday & Sunday

    A couple of $1 million Grade I events highlight this weekend’s racing action. On Saturday, the top (remaining) three-year-olds do battle in the Travers Stakes at Saratoga; then, on Sunday, the best older horses on the West Coast square off in the Pacific Classic at Del Mar.
     
    In the former, I’m intrigued by the ever-improving Street Life, who just captured the Curlin by 1 ¾ lengths on July 27, as well as Liaison and Neck ‘N Neck, both of whom had wide trips vs. probable race favorite Alpha in the Grade II Jim Dandy on July 28.

    Where the surf meets the turf, I’ll be keeping my eye on Rail Trip, who recorded a race-best +6 late speed ration (LSR) in his last race, the Grade II San Diego Handicap. The old guy still has some spring left in his legs and he should get a great... well, rail trip... in Sunday’s feature.

    On the other hand, I’m completely tossing Dullahan, who is starting to remind me of Ice Box. Yeah, his non-effort in the Haskell can probably be excused — I’m not convinced the son of Even The Score cares for the dirt, much less Monmouth Park’s speed-favoring surface — but, honestly, this guy’s resume hardly screams greatness. And given that the Classic will mark his first try against older foes, I’ll take a pass.

    For FREE Brisnet past performance that include my speed rations (ESRs and LSRs), check out the links below:

    2012 Travers Stakes past performances
    2012 Pacific Classic past performances

  • A Tale of Two Horses

    POSTED Jul 26, 2012 By Derek Simon
    In sports, when a team or individual triumphs in dubious fashion it is known as “winning ugly.”

    This past Saturday, Royal Delta and Acclamation could relate.

    Although both are considered strong candidates for Horse of the Year Honors — at least by some — neither impressed me last weekend.

    Let’s start with Acclamation.

    (Click on image to enlarge)

    After cruising to an easy victory in the Charles Whittingham Memorial Handicap in his six-year-old debut at Hollywood Park, last year’s top older male made it seven-for-his-last-seven with a front-running score in the Eddie Read at Del Mar.

    (Click on image to enlarge)

    And therein lies the problem: Acclamation has won seven straight races (five of them versus Grade I company) on or near the lead… yet, he’s hardly had to break a sweat in the early stages to do it.

    Over the past year, the son of Unusual Heat has recorded a string of ridiculously soft early speed rations (see key below), including a +7 in the 2012 Eddie Read, a +4 in the 2012 Whittingham and +4 in the 2011 C. L. Hirsch. Worse, he’s beaten a total of just 42 horses in his last ten starts and there is evidence to suggest that, if pressed for more speed early, Acclamation will fold like Adam Scott in the British Open.

    When he’s recorded a +1 ESR or lower (faster), the Donald Warren trainee is one-for-four — the one being last year’s Pacific Classic on Del Mar’s all-weather surface, which typically produces slightly better ESRs than turf.

    With speedsters like Bodemeister, Game On Dude, Paynter and a number of others waiting in the wings, Acclamation is surely going to have to show more early foot to compete for another Eclipse Award this year.

    Early speed — or, specifically, the lack thereof — is also at the heart of Royal Delta’s problem.

    (Click on image to enlarge)

    In my last column I noted that the daughter of Empire Maker “needs to prove she can rally from further off the pace than she’s accustomed to or show that she can duplicate the strong (-4) LSR that she earned last time after exerting herself more in the early stages.”

    In the Delaware Handicap, she did neither.

    (Click on image to enlarge)
    Instead, Royal Delta demonstrated once again that she’s vulnerable in races featuring a strong pace, as she barely held of Tiz Miz Sue by a neck.

    William Mott’s stable star has now won just two of her last five races (this includes Saturday’s Delaware Handicap) featuring a -5 ESR pace or less; she’s four-for-five in races featuring a slower pace.

    Again, I refer to Bodemeister, Game On Dude, Paynter, et al.

    Royal Delta is talented, but she’s going to need to improve greatly to keep the string of female Horse of the Year winners alive. At this point, I’m betting against it.

    (Click on image to enlarge)
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  • Older male division

    POSTED Jul 6, 2012 By Unknown
    It's a big weekend for older males on the road to the Breeders' Cup Classic with the Hollywood Gold Cup and Suburban both slated for Saturday.

    The Hollywood Gold Cup features the best horse running this weekend (if not in North America) while the Suburban is a more competitive race.

    I haven't had a very good handle on this division this year. I've had Mucho Macho Man, Wise Dan, and Successful Dan all ranked in the top spot of my America's Best Racing poll, and after Successful Dan lost the Cornhusker I finally cried "UNCLE!" and put a three-year-old (Bodemeister) on top, but given that he has neither A) won at 1 1/4 miles, or B) defeated elders yet, I could see putting his stablemate (Game On Dude) in the top spot with an impressive win on Saturday, though I'm still nervous about thinking the best horse in the country right now is a horse who lost to Drosselmeyer.

    Anyway, lots more going on beyond the older males this year. The Summit of Speed at Calder has lots of great storylines, including Trinniberg against his elders, and Musical Romance back to defend her Princess Rooney crown. There's also the United Nations, and lots of discussion of the new two-year-old maiden races rules for the upcoming Saratoga meeting.

    This week's TCI touches on all those issues as well as Steve Nash and Turbulent Descent!


  • The half year in review

    POSTED Jun 13, 2012 By Unknown
    Sure, there's still about 2 1/2 weeks remaining for the first half of the calendar year, but the Belmont Stakes closes the book on the Triple Crown and with it the first half of the racing year.

    Triple Crown Insider hints at a turning of the page to the Road to the Breeders' Cup World Championships, but until then Jon Siegel and Joel Cunningham take a final look at the Belmont Stakes.


    My view of the Belmont Stakes is Andy Serling's view, "The Belmont was a race with three real contenders. One (Dullahan) didn't run a step and the other two (Union Rags & Paynter) comprised the exacta. It was hardly a resurrection."

    I see it as far more likely that Bodemeister will threaten I'll Have Another for three-year-old supremacy come the end of the year than will Union Rags, but the better question from a Horse of the Year standpoint is can either Bodemeister or Union Rags run with the top horses in the older male division?

    We'll probably have to wait until fall to answer that question, as both Bodemeister and Union Rags will probably contest races restricted to three-year-olds this summer, but I have to think any wresting of an Eclipse Award from I'll Have Another will have to include a Breeders' Cup win.

    One thing is for sure, unless Black Caviar comes over here and wins the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint followed by the Cigar Mile, it's fairly certain already that the streak of three consecutive female Horses of the Year will come to a close, as I don't see any distaffer in this group capable of running with the likes of Wise Dan, Game On Dude, Shackleford, etc.

    What are you most looking forward to this summer and fall in racing?

  • The three-year-old picture: I'll Have Another on top

    POSTED Jun 9, 2012 By Unknown
    I don't think anyone expected that anything would happen in today's Belmont Stakes to dethrone I'll Have Another from the top spot in the three-year-old division, and those expectations were met when Union Rags surged up the rail to defeat Paynter and win the Belmont Stakes in 2:30.42.

    I'll Have Another is in the driver's seat for the Eclipse Award as champion three-year-old male, but his car is parked and the emergency brake is stuck in the on position. And at this point, if any horse can dethrone him from the top spot, it's Union Rags who some would say was defeated not by superior competition in the Florida and Kentucky Derbys but troubled trips.

    If Union Rags runs the table, I'll Have Another will have the head to head nod with the Derby win (Union Rags was seventh), but Union Rags has a classic win to his credit now, too, and a win against elder males later in the year following a big summer could be enough to propel him past the three-time Grade 1 winner.

    Bodemeister could re-enter the picture with a big summer and fall as well, but working against him is that I'll Have Another beat him on the square in both the Derby & Preakness. A pie-in-the-sky Haskell-Travers-Goodwood-BC Classic grand slam would be hard to deny him the championship (and Horse of the Year), but any slip up without a Breeders' Cup win probably stymies his chances.

    If I were to make a line now on who the champion three-year-old male will be it'd look like this (10% takeout):

    I'll Have Another, evens
    Bodemeister, 5-to-2
    Union Rags, 7-to-2
    All others, 9-to-1

    Even if I'll Have Another stays ahead of the pack, it should be a fun summer. Zayat chasing a big win after finishing second in all three Triple Crown races plus a good group of sprinter and middle distance horses among this crop (Trinniberg, Hansen, etc.) will make for great theatre hopefully all year.

  • Enough About O’Neill

    POSTED May 24, 2012 By Derek Simon

    Doug O'Neill (from bleacherreport.com)
    Of all the headlines I could have used to recap I’ll Have Another’s gutsy win in the Preakness Stakes last weekend — a win that left the sophomore steed a mere jewel short of the coveted Triple Crown — the one I ultimately chose was my least favorite.

    The truth is I’d rather be talking about what a great show I’ll Have Another put on at Pimlico Saturday. I’d rather discuss how the son of Flower Alley overcame Bodemeister’s seemingly insurmountable three-length lead in the final furlong to win going away. I’d rather chat about the career-best 109 Brisnet speed figure that I’ll Have Another earned and the very real possibility that he could become the first horse since Affirmed (in 1978) to win the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes.

    I’d rather talk about anything besides Doug O’Neill.


    (Click to enlarge)
    Unfortunately, I don’t have much choice… because Doug O’Neill, the trainer of I’ll Have Another, is all the mainstream media seems to care about. Even before the colors of his colt’s silks had been painted on the Pimlico weather vane, Doug O’Neill had become the story in the minds of some.
     
    After I’ll Have Another won the Derby, Joe Drape and Walt Bogdanich, who are fast becoming the “Siskel and Ebert” of the racing industry, documented O’Neill’s transgressions in a story that appeared in The New York Times.

    "Over 14 years and in four different states, O’Neill received more than a dozen violations for giving his horses improper drugs,” Drape and Bogdanich noted. “O’Neill’s horses also have had a tendency to break down. According to an analysis by The New York Times, the horses he trains break down or show signs of injury at more than twice the rate of the national average.”

    The moment the results of the Preakness were declared official, the story was the same: “O’Neill Will Face Scrutiny At Belmont About Drugs” screamed the headline of one AP article I saw.

    Look, I get it. O’Neill’s record is clearly against him, but should that overshadow everything his horse has accomplished?

    Frankly, it’s starting to feel like 2008 all over again.


    (Click to enlarge)
    Remember 2008, the year Big Brown was a “foregone conclusion” to win the Belmont Stakes and, consequently, the Triple Crown?

    Following the revelation that the Rick Dutrow trainee had been given Winstrol (the same anabolic steroid that led to Canadian sprinter Ben Johnson’s disgrace at the 1988 Olympic Games) shortly before the Kentucky Derby — “I give all my horses Winstrol on the 15th of every month,” Dutrow told the New York Daily News — a public backlash prompted the veteran conditioner to abandon the regimen prior to the Preakness and Belmont Stakes.

    But the damage was already done.

    When Big Brown’s Triple Crown hopes went belly-up at Belmont, the speculation that “Brown” was a synthetic freak — and I’m not talking track surface here — ran rampant.

    “He blew away the field at the Kentucky Derby. He made the Preakness field look like circus ponies. But on the day that would solidify his legacy and give racing a respite from intense scrutiny, Big Brown crumbled,” wrote William C. Rhoden in The New York Times. “He crumbled so badly that one could legitimately wonder whether he was nothing but a chemical horse, a paper tiger propped up — and propelled — by steroids.”

    Personally, I think such a supposition is absurd. While steroids can and do improve athletic performance, I’m reasonably certain that even the most potent ‘roids on the planet won’t make a bad player good… or a slow horse fast.

    “Although steroids can improve performance in horses, steroid administration in itself does not assure enhanced performance,” agreed Sid Gustafson, a former thoroughbred attending and examining veterinarian in New York, Washington, and Montana. “Generally speaking, horses are adequately big, strong, and fast enough. Steroid administration is not always a beneficial thing, especially over the long run. There are adverse reactions and side effects aplenty. When the dosage is excessive, or sometimes even with small dosages, difficult behavioral issues often arise. The biggest problem is that horses become hard to manage and handle. They act rank. With horses control is essential to safety and performance. It seemed Big Brown was plenty frisky as he broke out of the gate for the Belmont. Behaviorally and physically, there appeared to be little appearance of a lack of steroids in the big horse’s system.”

    So, in between debating what O’Neill did or did not do, maybe we can find some time — just a little — to give I’ll Have Another some credit?

    There’ll be ample time to question O’Neill’s record later. After all, the Breeders’ Cup is coming up.

    The Bounce That Wasn’t

    All I heard in the two weeks leading up to the Preakness Stakes was how tough it is for today’s thoroughbred to race on 14 days’ rest.

    Thoroughbred Times correspondent and Ragozin Sheets user Bob Ehalt called it a “hardship,” noting that “Saturday's middle jewel of the Triple Crown offers a stumbling point that runs rampant among the top contenders and adds to the mystery of the race.”

    “I'll Have Another was the best and fastest horse in the Run for the Roses,” Ehalt pointed out, but cautioned that with only two weeks rest “it seems unlikely that he'll take another step forward in the Preakness.”

    “In theory, that could make him vulnerable,” Ehalt wrote, “except that the 5-to-2 second choice's chief rivals are also burdened with just two weeks rest.”

    Well, apparently, the Kentucky Derby entrants didn’t get the memo, as I’ll Have Another (first in the Derby), Bodemeister (second) and Creative Cause (fifth) made up the Preakness trifecta. Meanwhile the five well-rested “new shooters” finished fourth, fifth, seventh, eighth and last.

    Since 1992, horses that didn’t wear themselves out in Louisville are now 3-for-128 in Baltimore.

    But, hey, at least they’re not bouncing.

    Weekend Win Factor Plays

    For fun and because I rarely have time to handicap these days, I’ve decided to try something new with my free picks. Instead of offering just win bets every couple of months (or so it seems), I’m going to start providing a wide variety of suggested plays, relying solely on my Win Factor (computerized fair odds) Report. So be sure to check the TwinSpires blog regularly, as I will be posting stuff throughout the week.

    We’ll start with a mythical $1,000 bankroll and I’ll update it as we go along.

    THURSDAY (05/24/12)

    Click HERE to get your free Win Factor Report

    6th Charlottetown: $46 conditional win wager on 1-Windemere Express (minimum odds of 6-5, 0 minutes to post).

    1st Hoosier Park: $46 conditional win wager on 5-Cincinnati Star (7-5, 0 MTP).

    1st River Downs: $4 Daily Double 1,3 with 2.

    2nd River Downs: $1 Trifecta 2 with 3 with ALL. $8 conditional exacta bets 2/3 ($6 minimum payoff on a $1 bet, 0 MTP), 2/4 ($13, 0 MTP) and 2/7 ($14, 0 MTP). $4 conditional exacta bet 3/2 ($9, 0 MTP). $2 conditional exacta bets 4/2 ($22, 0 MTP) and 7/2 ($25, 0 MTP).

    11th Saratoga Harness: $16 conditional win wager on 2-Dirt Road Phil (7-5, 0 MTP). $1 Trifecta 2 with 6 with ALL. $6 conditional exacta bets 2/6 ($15, 0 MTP), 2/3 ($16, 0 MTP) and 2/7 ($23, 0 MTP). $2 conditional exacta bets 6/2 ($18, 0 MTP), 3/2 ($20, 0 MTP) and 7/2 ($30, 0 MTP).

    Total Potential Amount Wagered (before scratches): $183
    Profit/Loss: -$52.00

    FRIDAY (05/25/12)

    Click HERE to get your free Win Factor Report

    5th Emerald Downs: $29 conditional win wager on 5-Epic Cast (minimum odds of 4-5, 0 minutes to post). $5 conditional exacta bets 5/4 ($6 minimum payoff on a $1 bet, 0 MTP), 5/1 ($8, 0 MTP) and 4/5 ($10, 0 MTP).

    2nd Hazel Park: $15 conditional exacta bets 6/3 ($16, 0 MTP), 6/5 ($19, 0 MTP) and 6/2 ($20, 0 MTP).

    8th Hazel Park: $15 conditional win wager on 2-LC Tiffany (2-1, 0 MTP).

    11th Pocono Downs: $5 conditional exacta bets 2/8 ($18 minimum payoff on a $1 bet, 0 MTP), 2/6 ($20, 0 MTP) and 2/4 ($20, 0 MTP).

    5th Harrah's Philadelphia: $8 conditional exacta bets 1/8 ($12, 0 MTP), 8/1 ($13, 0 MTP), 1/6 ($27, 0 MTP), 8/6 ($30, 0 MTP), 1/3 ($27, 0 MTP) and 8/3 ($31, 0 MTP). 

    Total Potential Amount Wagered (before scratches): $167
    Profit/Loss: N/A.