Making a Fair Odds Line
Recently, I’ve been getting quite a
few inquiries about fair odds lines — mainly, how does a horseplayer go about making
one and what are they good for?
Let’s kick off the discussion with the
last question — after all, what’s the use in creating something without first
knowing what it does (trust me, I’ve seen enough science fiction movies to know
this is a terrible idea)? Simply put, a fair odds line provides gamblers with a
means of making rational wagering decisions.
For example, most players know that
betting to win on a horse that is 2-5 or less doesn’t make a lot of sense. To make
any money on such steeds, a gambler would need to cash at least 71 percent of the time, which is extremely unlikely (not
to mention the fact that the place and show payoffs would probably be just as
high if not higher than the win return, making a win bet look that much more
foolish).
Yet very few punters take the next
logical step and assign specific minimum betting odds to all (or even some) of
the race contenders.
This is where a fair odds line comes
in.
A fair odds line attempts to quantify
a handicapper’s feelings about a particular race and provide a framework for
better money management decisions. Statements like “I knew I should have used
that horse” are, theoretically at least, foreign to one who employs a fair odds
line on a regular basis.
This is because bets are made — or not
made — depending on whether the horse in question is an overlay (post-time odds
greater than its fair odds) or underlay (post-time odds less than its fair
odds). As a result, the angst of deciding whether or not to include a horse in
one’s wagers is, in effect, made by the betting public.
So, without further ado, let’s move on
to the main course — constructing the line:
A) For every horse, assign odds that
you think are fair. If it helps, use the morning line as a guide.
B) Convert these odds to a percentage.
Because I am such a kindhearted guy, I have included a chart, as well as a link
to an Excel spreadsheet program, to make this process easier.
C) Add all the individual percentages
together to get the total line percentage. If this number is exactly 100
percent (plus or minus a few tenths of a point due to rounding discrepancies),
you have what is known as a “true” line, which is what I personally strive for.
However, many value handicappers like
to mirror the tote board and include takeout and breakage in the equation. In
this case, a total line percentage of up to 125 percent is OK. Beyond that, though,
I would suggest re-calculating or massaging your fair odds. Perhaps the horse
you listed at 2-1 should be 5-2 instead. Maybe a couple of the horses you
tabbed at 15-1 should really be 20-1. Continue making adjustments like this
until the total line percentage meets your goal.
 | |||
| (Click on image to enlarge) |
Click HERE
to get your free Fair Odds Calculator.
Actually using the fair odds line is a piece of cake: just concentrate on
betting overlays and eliminating underlays.
Of course, I’m aware of the fact that
this is easier said than done and will almost surely require practice and a
fair amount of patience. Underlays you tossed will win — sometimes at or above
their fair odds, thanks to an influx of late money into the pool; overlays you wagered
on will magically transform into underlays for the same reason.
But don’t give up. Remember, most
gamblers lose because they bet too many underlays. The legendary punter George
E. Smith (“Pittsburg Phil”) said it best when he noted: “You cannot be a
successful horse player if you are going to get the worst of the price all the
time.”
Fair odds ensure that you don’t.
Now, before I leave this subject there are two important things to consider as you move along the path toward becoming a value bettor:
Now, before I leave this subject there are two important things to consider as you move along the path toward becoming a value bettor:
1) A horse is not an overlay or underlay just because your fair odds say it is. After all, your line could be — and in many cases is — wrong.
Don’t get overly cocky and dismiss the crowd’s opinion entirely. If a horse that you think should be 5-2 is 20-1 on the board, ask yourself why. Is there something you missed, a factor that you weighted too heavily or too lightly? In other words, look for errors in your calculations before you rush to the windows to bet your life savings.Also, be sure to test your fair odds. They should win at the rate you say they do. What’s more, they should keep winning at that rate (or very close to it) as the actual odds vary. If your 2-1 shots win a third of the time overall, but only one percent of the time when the horse is a supposed overlay, you’ve definitely got a problem.2) In regard to your fair odds line itself, it pays to keep in mind something that betting guru Dick Mitchell learned in the course of his fair odds studies. After years of trying to find a line that adequately reflected the performance of the top three wagering choices (again, contrary to what racetrack charlatans proclaim, the betting pools are generally efficient), Mitchell heard a television commentator discuss the “80/20 rule.”
First advanced by business consultant Joseph M. Juran, the 80/20 rule, or Pareto Principle, is the notion that 80 percent of all consequences stem from just 20 percent of all causes. 20 percent of the world’s population control 80 percent of its resources, 20 percent of the people on Earth possess 80 percent of the talent (not necessarily the same 20 percent, mind you) and so forth and so on.
From a betting standpoint, Mitchell realized that a fair odds line should reflect that same fundamental truth. Hence, he began assigning 80 percent of his ratings to his top contenders and the remaining 20 percent to the rest of the field — with great success.
I bring this up because many rookie line makers will find that their fair odds are too similar — a lot of 3-1, 4-1 and 6-1 chances — and not very reflective of real-life betting tendencies (which should always be one of the goals). By reassigning 80 percent (or thereabouts) of the probabilities to one’s top choices, this can be avoided.
Anyway, hopefully this helps aspiring
value bettors become more proficient at their craft and, as Pittsburg Phil
said, avoid getting the “worst of the price all the time.”
Delaware
Handicap Lures Royal Delta, Awesome Maria
Just as last year’s Delaware Handicap
produced a thrilling showdown between the two top older females in training — Blind
Luck and eventual Horse of the Year Havre de Grace — many race fans are hoping the
2012 edition does likewise.
On paper at least, the prospect of
that looks promising, as last year’s BC Ladies Classic winner Royal Delta
squares off with Awesome Maria, the mare that beat her by eight resounding
lengths at Gulfstream Park earlier this year.
On the other hand, both Royal Delta
and Awesome Maria have questions to answer.
With a decent pace expected given the presence of Cash For Clunkers and Love And Pride in the field, the former needs to prove she can rally from further off the pace than she’s accustomed to or show that she can duplicate the strong (-4) LSR that she earned last time after exerting herself more in the early stages.
With a decent pace expected given the presence of Cash For Clunkers and Love And Pride in the field, the former needs to prove she can rally from further off the pace than she’s accustomed to or show that she can duplicate the strong (-4) LSR that she earned last time after exerting herself more in the early stages.
 |
| (Click on image to enlarge) |
The latter, meanwhile, needs to
rebound from one of the worst races of her career (99 Brisnet speed figure and
a woeful -14 LSR) and, for that matter, demonstrate that she’s as good as she
was in 2011.
 |
| (Click on image to enlarge) |
 |
(Click on
image to enlarge)   |
76 comments:
Loved this post. Thanks for sharing your day!
Football Bet
wow, awesome article post.Thanks Again. Really Great.
Sports Bets
Can you please send me a copy of your fair odds calculator? The website above no longer works. I appreciate it, thanks.
How come when I use the ML odds of a typical 6 horse race at Santa Anita, the pecentages add up to well over 100%??
Does this method account for the takeout?
It will be great idea for college students to visit this website. Here you can get info about the Best VPN Services
A custom logo design helps you put a visual on what your business is doing and brings your idea to life by communicating with people in a way that words cannot. Your logos tell a memorable story and people are drawn to visual elements businesses possess.
Nice blog. Geek Squad Support
provides best solution to fix problems in your electronic devices. for more query just visit us.
idp generic avast sometimes antivirus remove the system files mistakenly and you can change the reading modules of antivirus.
you find this website robloxpromocodes more usefull when you find that you can win free robux.
Thanks for this great post of yours, I enjoyed it.
Thanks for the sharing great information I will read these five books.
how to delete skype account
Nice post, thank you so much.
if you want to play online game you can play free stream codes https://freesteamcodes.co/free-steam-code-50/
Flashlight - Powerful Led Torch Light 2019 instantly turns your device into the brightest led light. The ultimate lighting tool takes full advantage of the camera LED flashlight.
Mobdro APK is app that provide live TV channels with full HD result on your device. You can dwonload mobdro apk app and enjoy all tv chanels.
A very good article. I am really inspired by the selection of your topic and the way you discussed it is amazing! Being a blogger it is now very common to discuss the same things, again and again, just to gain traffic. On the other hand, your topic is new and unique and something we don’t often discuss as a blogger.
Watches have become an inseparable part of men’s attire. Whether you are going to buy your first watch or adding watches to your collection, the main focus should be on the type of watch and the type of activities you are going to perform while wearing it. You can find lots of designs and styles in quality timepieces at the best online watch store.
watches are portable timepieces, used to measure time and intervals; and at the same time, have different advantages. Wearing a watch is as important as food when you relate it to fashion accessories. As a matter of fact, wrist watches are one of the best devices for daily human usage
The G-Shock is a line of watches manufactured by the Japanese electronics company Casio, designed to resist mechanical stress, shock and vibration. G-Shock is an abbreviation for Gravitational Shock. The watches in the G-Shock line are designed primarily for sports, military and outdoors-oriented activities.
Let's go through some of the Most Lavish Hotels of 2020
download best led torch light with advance features.
Thanks
The Mini Turtle has a stainless steel case that's shaped like the house of a turtle. It is brushed on the top portion and polished on the case back.The lugs of the Mini Turtle are better than that of the Seiko Sumo. They're shorter and closer to the case, reducing the noticeable gap found on the Sumo's lugs
Wonderful Article.
Birthday Wishes
SBI HRMS
PNB HRMS
Watch Free Online Movies
Tamil Movie Download
Soap2day
Inspirational Quotes
Life Quotes
Motivational Quotes
Yoga Quotes
Very Interesting Keep it up.....!
Thanks
A very good article. I am really inspired by the selection of your topic and the way you discussed it is amazing!
Very Informatic keep it up!
Affordable Web Development Services inactive is a set of simple steps to help you find web development services at competitive prices. In modern times, people are talking about cheap numbers, so it is a friendly line bag.
Quickbooks Tool Hub is your one stop solution for all the errors that occur in Quickbooks desktop, that can be performance errors, forgotten password and other errors
this article's information help strengthen his structure well, for me :) . Thank you! TargetPayandBenefits
I read that Post and got it fine and informative.
spotify premium apk android
charles melton ethnicity
brooke simpson husband
pubfilm
Spy Dialer
cyro se free movies
very nice blogs!!! i have to learning for lot of information for this sites.Sharing for wonderful information. Thanks for sharing this valuable information to our vision. You have posted a trust worthy blog keep sharing
Horizontal Asymptote
utsa blackboard
Special Right Triangles
Perfect Square Trinomial Formula
Very Informatic thanks for sharing....!
Thanks for this keep it up.
A brilliant piece of knowledge, appreciate your sincerity to share such thoughts. If we went by not too long just a decade ago, would not be able to find such vastness in information especially related to the healthcare matters. Only General physicians nearby can discourse best words on medical wisdom back then. women health in pakistan
If you are at your office and want to order the food, you can check and view all restaurants menu price list on your desk and get easily the food that you are craving for.
So here are the details of all the food items from starter to desserts you wanted to check out and compare the easy and tasty food by your own at any place click here
Me and my Team were searching for the best VPN for my online business and we came acrossSurfshark VPN review 2021. As interesting as it is we would like to share our honest experience + BEST DEALS
You can create the account on the casino website, or it can be done through the software itself. The registration https://thaicasinomaxi.com/ process includes providing the casino with some essential personal data including first name, last name, user name, email address, physical address, and some other details.
Thank you for some other informative website. The place else may just I get that kind of information written in such a perfect method? I have a venture that I am simply now running on, and I’ve been at the glance out for such info. Door Replacement Service Decatur GA
You have described all your point very clearly and descriptive. Understanding of this thing is not easy at all. Here you can get street lights for lighting, one must be experienced even to get a simple know how of what to do and how to do. thanks for sharing this information for those who are searching for this topic.
I really appreciate the kind of topics you post here. Thanks for sharing us a great information that is actually helpful. Good day!
Flooring Installation Towson MD
Websites are now upgrading these days according to new standards. In Pakistan, developers are striving their way to strengthen their grip on website development. SEO Experts in Pakistan
images.google.com.af/url
thank you for sharing. you can watch movies through the HBO Max Download app
Impressive work, your words on clothing speak the truth and we should be heeding on with them, such information is always helpful and can fall under positivity of the society
Printed Tee’s in Karachi
แต่ก็ยังเป็นไปได้ที่จะหาสถานที่ในที่สาธารณะในสนามหลังบ้าน เช่น https://22wincasino.com/ คันทรีคลับ เพื่อเล่นเกมที่มีเอกลักษณ์หลายประเภท เช่น แบล็คแจ็คและแบล็คแจ็ค
Compress JPG
Compress PNG
Compress SVG
I was into the same thing and am delighted to know after reading your article that you have the same notions. Our way to the best shoe shop in Karachi is not bare feet.shoes brands in pakistan
Tölthetném az időmet ilyen videók nézésével, de szeretnék hasznot húzni az időmből. így megengedhetem magamnak, hogy befizetést készítsek a Vulkan Vegas napon, és megpróbálok több pénzt nyerni
Your words really helped here. It was hard for me to go outdoors even for pasta near me. I really wish to have crossed by it earlier.
fast food deals
BaoBao industrial touch PCs Computers are to perform in severe production settings at highest capacity.we Custom Industrial Pc services for special customers.
Botany science is committed to giving dietary enhancements and regular results of the greatest quality for wellbeing and health. Our main goal is to drive development in bioscience through an extreme obligation to client prosperity, logical meticulousness, maintainable tasks, public backing, and representative fulfillment.
Rapid Movers and Packers Lahore is the best moving company providing high quality home shifting, office moving, and goods moving services in Lahore.
Rapid movers and packers Pakistan are the best service providers in Pakistan, offering home/office shifting,commercial goods/vehicles moving.
QuickBooks is well-known accounting software. It aids in the resolution of all forms of network connectivity issues. Many difficulties occur when using QuickBooks, such as quickbooks error 15241. The payroll update did not complete successfully, as indicated by error 15241. If the QuickBooks Desktop File Copy Service (FCS) is turned off, this error can occur.
Nice Blog Very imformative.
Damac Properties introduces Portofino, a luxurious project set in the heart of Damac Lagoons that offers a choice of 3 & 4-bedroom townhouses, as well as 6-bedroom villas.Get a glimpse of Italian culture in Dubai. Home designs inspired by Italian culture are set in Damac Lagoons, creating a new landmark for Dubai's skyline. A great deal of the architecture in this development is inspired by Italy; the development traces Italy's history and culture. A haven for both investors and residents, this development stands out from the crowd. Aside from its authentic Italian architecture, landscape, harbour, clear waters, and stunning views over the sea and the Dubai skyline, it has everything anyone could ever want.Subtle and mixed-use of art and science gives the interior and exterior of this project a balance and uniqueness.
This project offers you a unique living experience. This community's aesthetic appeal and tranquillity will never leave you wanting to live anywhere else.
Nice Information Keep it Up! We are the best Movers and Packers
Nice Information Good Work Keep it Up! We are provide the best ielts preparation in karachi https://www.smyousuf.com/ielts-preparation-karachi/
Nice Information Good Work Keep it Up! We are provide the best ielts preparation in karachi
The UK Board 10th Latest Textbook 2023 will be released today on the Uttarkhand Board of Secondary Education's official website. Students who have registered for the test will receive a direct link to download the UBSE Textbook. They may get their current Uttarakhand Board of School Education, 10th Textbook 2023 by visiting the official website. UBSE 10th Book 2023 The students' exam results are shown in the UBSE 10th Textbook 2023. Because of this, many hopefuls would visit the same website to Download UK 10th Textbook 2023 at the same time.
Intresting Content
Nice post. It is very useful for those students or people who are looking for the word calculation guide that is how many pages in 1000 words in the paragraph. If you are looking for this service then this is the right place for you. Visit our website to know about these complete details.
We ensure that your online shopping experience is easy, enjoyable, and absolutely secure. We routinely conduct security audits of our infrastructure to ensure that none of our systems are vulnerable to downtime, hacking, or any other disruption. Visit us at modn
Feedhour is an independent news service building up its reputation as the most reliable and accurate news platform.
Sending a Coworker Leaving Card is one of the most thoughtful and kindest ways to say goodbye. When it comes to writing cards, it can be difficult because you don't know what words to use. This website will help with sending free "Coworker Leaving Cards" so that they'll have a reminder of your love for them when they're gone!
Nice blog.. Thanks for sharing this blog
personal loan app
personal loan
good job keep it up
moving
VEGUS168S
VEGUS168S คาสิโนออนไลน์
This system was officially launch on 26th January 2020, hosting more than 500 government and non-government services. It covers 35 government departments, thus providing services to the local and poor citizens at the village level. AP Grama Sachivalayam Login It’s an initiative that reaches all families making the AP government a people’s government concerning the prestigious Grama Sachivalayam village/ward secretariat system.
Be a TrendSetter and not a follower!
HiTrendSetter is here to provide you all the inspiration you need to become the trendiest person when it comes to fashion, beauty, lifestyle, career and relationships. Let us be your source of inspiration to explore and experiment with multiple fun and fascinating options in life.
As its name suggests, FeedNexus is the hub linking various items and building a universal platform for anything and everyone.
It creates original, high-quality material every day that millions of people all over the world find enlightening, educational, and entertaining.
Everyone uses this website as their go-to resource for information on a wide range of topics, including business insights, financial verticals, travel, sports, science & technology, lifestyle, entertainment, and much more. For the users to keep informed at all times, a thorough summary is presented here.
Because of the hard work of the employees as well as CEO (Paul Stobard) & Chairman (Richard Tang), the company won several awards in 2006 at ISPA i.e. Internet Service Provider’s Association, namely ZENBroadband “Best Business ISP”, “Best heavy Business Broadband”, “Best uncontended service” Not only this the chairman of ZEN was named as Customer Service Entrepreneur of the year by Ernst & Young at Manchester. That is why the other name of ZEN is Award winning broadband as well.
Bharat Sanchar Nigam Limited has introduced a new technology for Rural Areas of India through Bharat AirFibre service with new tariff, and this service is brought to most of the gram panchayats in India BSNL Air Fibre Plans for an extremely reasonable price. Bharat Sanchar Nigam Limited has introduced a new technology for Rural Areas of India through Bharat AirFibre service with new tariff, and this service is brought to most of the gram panchayats in India for an extremely reasonable price.
Planning your journey and reserving your bus tickets in advance will help you avoid last-minute difficulties and get the best deal on glasgow to aberdeen bus. If purchased on the same day, the average bus fare from Glasgow to Aberdeen will cost roughly £10; however, purchasing in advance can result in savings of up to £5. Choosing buses over flights or trains from Glasgow to Aberdeen will be significantly more reasonable and provide you access to all the space and amenities for a much lower cost. ScotRail runs the quickest bus service, which travels from Glasgow to Aberdeen in about 3 hours and 19 minutes.
Post a Comment