• Making a Fair Odds Line

    POSTED Jul 18, 2012
    Recently, I’ve been getting quite a few inquiries about fair odds lines — mainly, how does a horseplayer go about making one and what are they good for?

    Let’s kick off the discussion with the last question — after all, what’s the use in creating something without first knowing what it does (trust me, I’ve seen enough science fiction movies to know this is a terrible idea)? Simply put, a fair odds line provides gamblers with a means of making rational wagering decisions.

    For example, most players know that betting to win on a horse that is 2-5 or less doesn’t make a lot of sense. To make any money on such steeds, a gambler would need to cash at least 71 percent of the time, which is extremely unlikely (not to mention the fact that the place and show payoffs would probably be just as high if not higher than the win return, making a win bet look that much more foolish).

    Yet very few punters take the next logical step and assign specific minimum betting odds to all (or even some) of the race contenders.

    This is where a fair odds line comes in.

    A fair odds line attempts to quantify a handicapper’s feelings about a particular race and provide a framework for better money management decisions. Statements like “I knew I should have used that horse” are, theoretically at least, foreign to one who employs a fair odds line on a regular basis.

    This is because bets are made — or not made — depending on whether the horse in question is an overlay (post-time odds greater than its fair odds) or underlay (post-time odds less than its fair odds). As a result, the angst of deciding whether or not to include a horse in one’s wagers is, in effect, made by the betting public.

    So, without further ado, let’s move on to the main course — constructing the line:

    A) For every horse, assign odds that you think are fair. If it helps, use the morning line as a guide.

    B) Convert these odds to a percentage. Because I am such a kindhearted guy, I have included a chart, as well as a link to an Excel spreadsheet program, to make this process easier.

    C) Add all the individual percentages together to get the total line percentage. If this number is exactly 100 percent (plus or minus a few tenths of a point due to rounding discrepancies), you have what is known as a “true” line, which is what I personally strive for.

    However, many value handicappers like to mirror the tote board and include takeout and breakage in the equation. In this case, a total line percentage of up to 125 percent is OK. Beyond that, though, I would suggest re-calculating or massaging your fair odds. Perhaps the horse you listed at 2-1 should be 5-2 instead. Maybe a couple of the horses you tabbed at 15-1 should really be 20-1. Continue making adjustments like this until the total line percentage meets your goal.

    (Click on image to enlarge)
    Click HERE to get your free Fair Odds Calculator.

    Actually using the fair odds line is a piece of cake: just concentrate on betting overlays and eliminating underlays.

    Of course, I’m aware of the fact that this is easier said than done and will almost surely require practice and a fair amount of patience. Underlays you tossed will win — sometimes at or above their fair odds, thanks to an influx of late money into the pool; overlays you wagered on will magically transform into underlays for the same reason.

    But don’t give up. Remember, most gamblers lose because they bet too many underlays. The legendary punter George E. Smith (“Pittsburg Phil”) said it best when he noted: “You cannot be a successful horse player if you are going to get the worst of the price all the time.”

    Fair odds ensure that you don’t.

    Now, before I leave this subject there are two important things to consider as you move along the path toward becoming a value bettor:

    1) A horse is not an overlay or underlay just because your fair odds say it is. After all, your line could be — and in many cases is — wrong.
    Don’t get overly cocky and dismiss the crowd’s opinion entirely. If a horse that you think should be 5-2 is 20-1 on the board, ask yourself why. Is there something you missed, a factor that you weighted too heavily or too lightly? In other words, look for errors in your calculations before you rush to the windows to bet your life savings.

    Also, be sure to test your fair odds. They should win at the rate you say they do. What’s more, they should keep winning at that rate (or very close to it) as the actual odds vary. If your 2-1 shots win a third of the time overall, but only one percent of the time when the horse is a supposed overlay, you’ve definitely got a problem.

    2) In regard to your fair odds line itself, it pays to keep in mind something that betting guru Dick Mitchell learned in the course of his fair odds studies. After years of trying to find a line that adequately reflected the performance of the top three wagering choices (again, contrary to what racetrack charlatans proclaim, the betting pools are generally efficient), Mitchell heard a television commentator discuss the “80/20 rule.”
    First advanced by business consultant Joseph M. Juran, the 80/20 rule, or Pareto Principle, is the notion that 80 percent of all consequences stem from just 20 percent of all causes. 20 percent of the world’s population control 80 percent of its resources, 20 percent of the people on Earth possess 80 percent of the talent (not necessarily the same 20 percent, mind you) and so forth and so on.
    From a betting standpoint, Mitchell realized that a fair odds line should reflect that same fundamental truth. Hence, he began assigning 80 percent of his ratings to his top contenders and the remaining 20 percent to the rest of the field — with great success.
    I bring this up because many rookie line makers will find that their fair odds are too similar — a lot of 3-1, 4-1 and 6-1 chances — and not very reflective of real-life betting tendencies (which should always be one of the goals). By reassigning 80 percent (or thereabouts) of the probabilities to one’s top choices, this can be avoided.
    Anyway, hopefully this helps aspiring value bettors become more proficient at their craft and, as Pittsburg Phil said, avoid getting the “worst of the price all the time.”

    Delaware Handicap Lures Royal Delta, Awesome Maria

    Just as last year’s Delaware Handicap produced a thrilling showdown between the two top older females in training — Blind Luck and eventual Horse of the Year Havre de Grace — many race fans are hoping the 2012 edition does likewise.

    On paper at least, the prospect of that looks promising, as last year’s BC Ladies Classic winner Royal Delta squares off with Awesome Maria, the mare that beat her by eight resounding lengths at Gulfstream Park earlier this year.

    On the other hand, both Royal Delta and Awesome Maria have questions to answer. 

    With a decent pace expected given the presence of Cash For Clunkers and Love And Pride in the field, the former needs to prove she can rally from further off the pace than she’s accustomed to or show that she can duplicate the strong (-4) LSR that she earned last time after exerting herself more in the early stages.

    (Click on image to enlarge)
    The latter, meanwhile, needs to rebound from one of the worst races of her career (99 Brisnet speed figure and a woeful -14 LSR) and, for that matter, demonstrate that she’s as good as she was in 2011.

    (Click on image to enlarge)

    (Click on image to enlarge)


    Unknown said...

    Loved this post. Thanks for sharing your day!
    Football Bet

    Unknown said...

    wow, awesome article post.Thanks Again. Really Great.
    Sports Bets

    Live Odds said...

    Can you please send me a copy of your fair odds calculator? The website above no longer works. I appreciate it, thanks.

    Stephenator said...

    How come when I use the ML odds of a typical 6 horse race at Santa Anita, the pecentages add up to well over 100%??
    Does this method account for the takeout?

    Richard Majece said...

    It will be great idea for college students to visit this website. Here you can get info about the Best VPN Services

    Brandphic said...

    A custom logo design helps you put a visual on what your business is doing and brings your idea to life by communicating with people in a way that words cannot. Your logos tell a memorable story and people are drawn to visual elements businesses possess.

    Geek squad said...

    Nice blog. Geek Squad Support
    provides best solution to fix problems in your electronic devices. for more query just visit us.

    john lee said...

    idp generic avast sometimes antivirus remove the system files mistakenly and you can change the reading modules of antivirus.

    Oliver john said...

    you find this website robloxpromocodes more usefull when you find that you can win free robux.

    Mobdro download grátis said...

    Thanks for this great post of yours, I enjoyed it.

    Leo5 said...

    Thanks for the sharing great information I will read these five books.

    how to delete skype account

    Mobdro apk download said...

    Nice post, thank you so much.

    free stem codes said...

    if you want to play online game you can play free stream codes https://freesteamcodes.co/free-steam-code-50/

    LED Torch said...

    Flashlight - Powerful Led Torch Light 2019 instantly turns your device into the brightest led light. The ultimate lighting tool takes full advantage of the camera LED flashlight.

    mobdro apk said...

    Mobdro APK is app that provide live TV channels with full HD result on your device. You can dwonload mobdro apk app and enjoy all tv chanels.

    best online watch store said...

    A very good article. I am really inspired by the selection of your topic and the way you discussed it is amazing! Being a blogger it is now very common to discuss the same things, again and again, just to gain traffic. On the other hand, your topic is new and unique and something we don’t often discuss as a blogger.

    Best Seiko Watches said...

    Watches have become an inseparable part of men’s attire. Whether you are going to buy your first watch or adding watches to your collection, the main focus should be on the type of watch and the type of activities you are going to perform while wearing it. You can find lots of designs and styles in quality timepieces at the best online watch store.

    Best Casio Watches said...

    watches are portable timepieces, used to measure time and intervals; and at the same time, have different advantages. Wearing a watch is as important as food when you relate it to fashion accessories. As a matter of fact, wrist watches are one of the best devices for daily human usage

    Casio G Shock watches said...

    The G-Shock is a line of watches manufactured by the Japanese electronics company Casio, designed to resist mechanical stress, shock and vibration. G-Shock is an abbreviation for Gravitational Shock. The watches in the G-Shock line are designed primarily for sports, military and outdoors-oriented activities.

    Anonymous said...

    Let's go through some of the Most Lavish Hotels of 2020

    LED Torch said...

    download best led torch light with advance features.

    Seiko mini turtle said...

    The Mini Turtle has a stainless steel case that's shaped like the house of a turtle. It is brushed on the top portion and polished on the case back.The lugs of the Mini Turtle are better than that of the Seiko Sumo. They're shorter and closer to the case, reducing the noticeable gap found on the Sumo's lugs

    Lakshman Gobburu said...

    Wonderful Article.
    Birthday Wishes
    Watch Free Online Movies
    Tamil Movie Download
    Inspirational Quotes
    Life Quotes
    Motivational Quotes
    Yoga Quotes

    Seiko Watches said...

    Very Interesting Keep it up.....!

    online watch store said...


    Honor band 3 said...

    A very good article. I am really inspired by the selection of your topic and the way you discussed it is amazing! 

    Honor band 3 said...

    Very Informatic keep it up!

    Web Fixes said...

    Affordable Web Development Services inactive is a set of simple steps to help you find web development services at competitive prices. In modern times, people are talking about cheap numbers, so it is a friendly line bag.

    steve said...

    Quickbooks Tool Hub is your one stop solution for all the errors that occur in Quickbooks desktop, that can be performance errors, forgotten password and other errors

    Techmonster said...

    this article's information help strengthen his structure well, for me :) . Thank you! TargetPayandBenefits

    aditya said...

    I read that Post and got it fine and informative.

    spotify premium apk android
    charles melton ethnicity
    brooke simpson husband
    Spy Dialer
    cyro se free movies

    aditya said...

    very nice blogs!!! i have to learning for lot of information for this sites.Sharing for wonderful information. Thanks for sharing this valuable information to our vision. You have posted a trust worthy blog keep sharing

    Horizontal Asymptote
    utsa blackboard
    Special Right Triangles
    Perfect Square Trinomial Formula

    Honor band 3 said...

    Very Informatic thanks for sharing....!

    Stopwatch Online said...

    Thanks for this keep it up.

    sehatkahani said...

    A brilliant piece of knowledge, appreciate your sincerity to share such thoughts. If we went by not too long just a decade ago, would not be able to find such vastness in information especially related to the healthcare matters. Only General physicians nearby can discourse best words on medical wisdom back then. women health in pakistan

    Alexx said...

    If you are at your office and want to order the food, you can check and view all restaurants menu price list on your desk and get easily the food that you are craving for.

    So here are the details of all the food items from starter to desserts you wanted to check out and compare the easy and tasty food by your own at any place click here

    niche kode said...

    Me and my Team were searching for the best VPN for my online business and we came acrossSurfshark VPN review 2021. As interesting as it is we would like to share our honest experience + BEST DEALS

    gegege said...

    You can create the account on the casino website, or it can be done through the software itself. The registration https://thaicasinomaxi.com/ process includes providing the casino with some essential personal data including first name, last name, user name, email address, physical address, and some other details.

    Unknown said...

    Thank you for some other informative website. The place else may just I get that kind of information written in such a perfect method? I have a venture that I am simply now running on, and I’ve been at the glance out for such info. Door Replacement Service Decatur GA

    Unknown said...

    You have described all your point very clearly and descriptive. Understanding of this thing is not easy at all. Here you can get street lights for lighting, one must be experienced even to get a simple know how of what to do and how to do. thanks for sharing this information for those who are searching for this topic.

    Michel hardy said...

    I really appreciate the kind of topics you post here. Thanks for sharing us a great information that is actually helpful. Good day!
    Flooring Installation Towson MD

    Nimra said...

    Websites are now upgrading these days according to new standards. In Pakistan, developers are striving their way to strengthen their grip on website development. SEO Experts in Pakistan

    Geniuses said...


    Roy Hopkins said...

    thank you for sharing. you can watch movies through the HBO Max Download app

    SamiaRahsid said...

    Impressive work, your words on clothing speak the truth and we should be heeding on with them, such information is always helpful and can fall under positivity of the society

    Printed Tee’s in Karachi

    Frank Howell said...

    แต่ก็ยังเป็นไปได้ที่จะหาสถานที่ในที่สาธารณะในสนามหลังบ้าน เช่น https://22wincasino.com/ คันทรีคลับ เพื่อเล่นเกมที่มีเอกลักษณ์หลายประเภท เช่น แบล็คแจ็คและแบล็คแจ็ค

    Shahid Ali said...

    Compress JPG
    Compress PNG
    Compress SVG

    shoezone said...

    I was into the same thing and am delighted to know after reading your article that you have the same notions. Our way to the best shoe shop in Karachi is not bare feet.shoes brands in pakistan

    Liki said...

    Tölthetném az időmet ilyen videók nézésével, de szeretnék hasznot húzni az időmből. így megengedhetem magamnak, hogy befizetést készítsek a Vulkan Vegas napon, és megpróbálok több pénzt nyerni

    fatima umar said...

    Your words really helped here. It was hard for me to go outdoors even for pasta near me. I really wish to have crossed by it earlier.
    fast food deals

    industrial touch PCs said...

    BaoBao industrial touch PCs Computers are to perform in severe production settings at highest capacity.we Custom Industrial Pc services for special customers.

    https://kratombotany.com/ said...

    Botany science is committed to giving dietary enhancements and regular results of the greatest quality for wellbeing and health. Our main goal is to drive development in bioscience through an extreme obligation to client prosperity, logical meticulousness, maintainable tasks, public backing, and representative fulfillment.

    Post a Comment