• Getting over a hump day hump at Keeneland imperative to multi-race success

    POSTED Apr 10, 2013
    As a Pick N player, the most important race today at Keeneland is not the featured seventh--an entry-level allowance worth $60,000--but the blue collar fifth--a starter allowance for $7,500 types worth $21,000.

    It's not the type of race that makes the fifth so important but where it falls on the card. Keeneland has only eight races today, and since it starts its early Pick 4 in race 2 instead of the lid lifter, the fifth race is pivotal as both the last leg of that Pick 4 as well as the opening leg of the late (races 5-8) Pick 4. The fifth race is also the second leg of the Pick 5 and is one of four races on the card that is a part of three Pick 3s on a day there is only six of them total.

    I.e., if I whiff on race 5 it's very unlikely to be a good day for me.

    So what to make of this all important race? Well, #7 Point Finish & #12 Tobes the Man are clearly the most likely winners of this group with Point Finish even the more likely of the two, but Point Finish will take more money than Tobes the Man, which is why I have them as joint "A" selections. #10 Headstart is 20-to-1 on the morning line, and although I'm talking about this race mostly in the scope of the multis, this gelding would absolutely be a vertical key for me with the two obvious horses at anything close to that 20-to-1 price.

    Elsewhere on the card I would absolutely love it if #1 War Dancer really were 6-to-1 in the aforementioned featured seventh race, but I just don't see the supposed favorites taking that much more money than this one. 4-to-1 would be more than fair, though, and #12 Five Iron is an intriguing gate-to-wire threat.

    The eighth race closes it off and features a $80k+ Super High Five carryover. That bet gets so expensive so fast even big carryovers rarely lure me in, but I might take a stab since I like my "A" trio and have another trio of horses I don't like for the exacta at all.

    The complete ABC grid for the eight-race card on Wednesday, April 10, at Keeneland is below.

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