Showing posts with label multi-race wagers. Show all posts
Showing posts with label multi-race wagers. Show all posts

  • The Wise Dan Pick 4 conundrum: When even money on 2-to-5 isn't worth it

    POSTED Sep 13, 2013 By Unknown


    This scene from The Simpsons came to mind when considering whether to single Wise Dan in the $200,000 guaranteed Pick 4 on Sunday at Woodbine, or go against him in the Ricoh Woodbine Mile.

     Seeing the reigning Horse of the Year win his ninth consecutive race would "please the gentleman" as the shopkeep says in the video above, but he would do so at no more than his morning line odds of 2-to-5 and maybe even at 1-to-5, and as Homer J. says, "That's bad."

     But realistically speaking, Wise Dan has a 75%-80% chance of winning, which actually represents value at 2-to-5, and that's good, but I think he'll be used on more than 80% of people's Pick 4 tickets, and that's bad.

     As you can probably tell by now, I've decided to try to leverage Wise Dan as a single who wins 75%-80% of the time rather than take 3- or 4-to-1 on him losing. I work through the math of that decision and the ticket I'm playing in a Pick 4 analysis I did for Brisnet.com & Woodbine. You can get that (as well as Spotlight Selections from Mark Johnson) for FREE by CLICKING HERE.

     If you're reading this, I'm assuming you already have at least a little racing/handicapping knowledge, so I won't insult that by telling you why Wise Dan is the obvious choice, but it is worth noting just how much better he looks on paper than his rivals.

    Wise Dan's 21.8-point Prime Power advantage over Za Approval is among the largest gaps I've seen. I don't have numbers for that high, but horses with a 10-point advantage win more than half the time. We don't have a Prime Power figure for import Trade Storm, but his Class Ratings tell us that he's closer in ability to Wise Dan (.7 off his average last three races) than Za Approval (1.1 points better). With Class Ratings 1 point is a lot, so Wise Dan has a comfortable advantage, but if I were playing anyone against Wise Dan I'd be looking for at least 6-to-1 on Trade Storm, and as crazy as this is going to sound, a $8 straight exacta (for $2) on those two I don't think would be taking the worst of it.

     Forte de Marmi is the other big favorite in that $200,000 guaranteed Pick 4 sequence, and I'd much rather beat him than Wise Dan, and I will try to do so with IRISH MISSION, who is the only horse in the field besides Forte de Marmi to earn a triple digit Brisnet.com Speed Rating in victory.

     That italicized caveat is important to me in this race because Irish Mission's only chance to win will be on the front end, so he's absolutely going to have to go as fast as can as far as he can, and 12-to-1 is a fair price on that prospect.

     Wise Dan certainly doesn't help add value to the Pick 4, but even if you think of it as a Pick 3, how exciting would it be to start a Pick 3 with a $20 horse beating an even money shot. Real exciting, I tell you. This exciting.

     Speaking of exciting, the stakes action begins Saturday at Woodbine with a pair of Win & You're In races for Breeders' Cup juvenile turf events: The Natalma for males and the Summer for females.

     Triple Crown Insider took time out of its busy Keeneland September yearling sale to discuss the current two-year-old landscape with a focus on more main track types, but touched on the Woodbine races as well.

  • Introducing our first big winner: Rick Hausman takes down Jackpot5

    POSTED Aug 30, 2013 By Unknown
    Rick Hausman had a busy Sunday: drop his daughter off at college and play the Pacific Classic Stakes day card from Del Mar.

     And, oh, yeah: in between those big events he hit TwinSpires.com's new bet, the Jackpot 5, for $31,676.80 on a $243 ticket.
    "I knew I was four-for-four going into the final leg but didn't think I'd have the only ticket when the favorite won," Hausman said. "The favorite won, of course, and I figured all I had was 12 tickets for the show payoff and was hoping I got my money back on the bet. When I saw my account balance I couldn't believe it, and my my wife and I started dancing around like schoolchildren."

     Hausman won $31,552 for having the lone jackpot ticket (all five winners) and an additional $124.80 for having 12 show combinations. He's played the bet three times and has won on it each time, so he's definitely playing it again this weekend, though probably laying off Friday.

     "I'm a weekend player," Hausman said. "Work is going really well right now, so I like to focus on that then put my energy into playing on the weekends. I don't want to jinx myself, but I'm three-for-three playing this bet, so I got to keep playing, right?"

     Hausman's rainmaker from his Jackpot sequence was Catduel in race 8 from Calder (leg 2). The Chelsey Cat gelding was returning to turf after being rained off in his last two starts, and of his previous eight lifetime starts, his best Brisnet.com Speed Rating had come on the turf. Catduel outclosed 4-to-5 favorite Ant Hill (who Hausman also used) to set the wheels in motion for his big score.

     "I thought for sure with two horses paying less than $5 that there'd be other winners, but I guess [Catduel] was a real separator," said Hausman, who credits his grandmother and stockbroker David Foster--better known as owner-breeder of 1983 Kentucky Derby winner Sunny's Halo--with teaching him out to handicap.

     "My grandmother bred and raced horses, and I used to love going to the track with her and talking to her about racing," Hausman said. "I went to the 1997 Breeders' Cup at Woodbine and had the fortune of happening to sit with Sunny's Halo's owner [Foster].

     "He was old by then and died the next year. He wasn't seeing very well, so he told me to tell him who I liked and he'd bet. Well, at the end of the day he asked me how I did, and I said, 'Not to well; I hope you did better,' and he said to me, 'Kid, you're a great handicapper but a lousy bettor; I made $3,000 today betting your picks.'

     "And ever since then I've paid close attention to how I bet my picks. I always bet a top pick to win if he's 6-to-1 or better, and I used to bet every wager offered but realized I was doing better with the Pick 4s and 5s, so I stick with those. It certainly paid off with the Jackpot."

     The $31,676 score was Hausman's second-biggest to date. Amazingly, his bigger score also came on Pacific Classic day when Skimming in 2000 helped key a $53,112 payout for the San Diego-area businessman.

     TwinSpires.com offers the Jackpot 5 wager Friday through Sunday on its website. The bet kicks off this weekend's action with a $10,000 carryover. 80% of the pool goes to the show payoff with the other 20% toward the jackpot. Brisnet.com offers FREE Ultimate Past Performances and Daily Selections full-card analysis for the sequence every day.

  • Getting over a hump day hump at Keeneland imperative to multi-race success

    POSTED Apr 10, 2013 By Unknown
    As a Pick N player, the most important race today at Keeneland is not the featured seventh--an entry-level allowance worth $60,000--but the blue collar fifth--a starter allowance for $7,500 types worth $21,000.

     It's not the type of race that makes the fifth so important but where it falls on the card. Keeneland has only eight races today, and since it starts its early Pick 4 in race 2 instead of the lid lifter, the fifth race is pivotal as both the last leg of that Pick 4 as well as the opening leg of the late (races 5-8) Pick 4. The fifth race is also the second leg of the Pick 5 and is one of four races on the card that is a part of three Pick 3s on a day there is only six of them total.

     I.e., if I whiff on race 5 it's very unlikely to be a good day for me.

     So what to make of this all important race? Well, #7 Point Finish & #12 Tobes the Man are clearly the most likely winners of this group with Point Finish even the more likely of the two, but Point Finish will take more money than Tobes the Man, which is why I have them as joint "A" selections. #10 Headstart is 20-to-1 on the morning line, and although I'm talking about this race mostly in the scope of the multis, this gelding would absolutely be a vertical key for me with the two obvious horses at anything close to that 20-to-1 price.

     Elsewhere on the card I would absolutely love it if #1 War Dancer really were 6-to-1 in the aforementioned featured seventh race, but I just don't see the supposed favorites taking that much more money than this one. 4-to-1 would be more than fair, though, and #12 Five Iron is an intriguing gate-to-wire threat.

    The eighth race closes it off and features a $80k+ Super High Five carryover. That bet gets so expensive so fast even big carryovers rarely lure me in, but I might take a stab since I like my "A" trio and have another trio of horses I don't like for the exacta at all.

    The complete ABC grid for the eight-race card on Wednesday, April 10, at Keeneland is below.

     

  • Our first Derby Championship Series sure thing?

    POSTED Mar 8, 2013 By Unknown
    The question for me approaching the Tampa Bay Derby day card at Tampa Bay Downs on Saturday is not whether I will play Verrazano to win the feature race, but how I will play Verrazno to win the feature race.

    (for FREE Brisnet.com Ultimate Past Performances of Kentucky Derby Championship Series races, CLICK HERE).

    The answer to that question involves the answer to another question: What will the current favorite to win the Kentucky Derby go off at to win this race? If it's 4-to-5 as his morning line suggests then I don't see any need to get too cute in the multi-race pools because I view that as enough value for a straight wager. Mike Welsch of Daily Racing Form said Friday morning on "At The Races" with Steve Byk that he thinks the More Than Ready colt could drift as high as even money!

     Unfortunately, I'm not as optimistic, and I think the only way I see those prices are if I turn him into that as a pick N single. The Pick 5 includes two other stakes, but the turf claimer as the cap on that as well as the late Pick 4 has me less than enthused. The all-stakes Pick 3 as is the Hillsborough-TBD double since I'm not overly keen on horses I expect to take money in the turf stake for older females.

     If I could lock in 4-to-5 right now on Verrazano I would and not look back, but the specter of 1-to-2 or worse when the gates open has me thinking I should plot a multi-race wagering strategy for sure.

     I have Verrazano ranked third on my Kentucky Derby rankings behind Itsmyluckyday and Mac The Man. The TCI boys have Flashback on top, and he runs on the same day as well in the San Felipe Stakes. Joel Cunningham has some nerves about both likely favorites. He's half right, as I think Verrazano airs (see above) but Flashback gets beat by Hear The Ghost.

    Jill Byrne also gets in on the race previews for KentuckyDerby.com

  • Carryover action at Turf Paradise

    POSTED Jan 15, 2013 By Unknown
    I can't exactly call Turf Paradise one of my favorite tracks to play, as I rarely check into it on a weekend day of racing, but it's definitely a track I like to play, as its Pick 5 carryovers into Monday or Tuesday help scratch my itch during an otherwise down time of the handicapping for most players.

     I've actually been laying low most of this year with only a few spot plays dotting my wagering in the New Year. Between a Vegas trip at the end of this month and looking at my results for 2012, I wanted to focus my bankroll on poker a preserve a decent nut for spring racing (read: Keeneland).

     That's not to say I'll ignore opportunities, though, and a $26k+ carryover into a Pick 5 certainly piques my interest. It's a navigable but not-what-I-would-call easy sequence that would cost $38,400 to buy, but I'm looking to invest about 1% of that.

     There are three horses I see as the most likely winners of the five races: #7 Flawless Jewel in leg 1 (race 5), #2 Vikkilee in leg 2 (race 6), and #10 Set'n Ready in leg 4 (race 8). I'm going to play so that at least two of the three have to win.

     Here's the ABC grid to riches; post time is 4:22 p.m. EST

  • Players' Pool post mortem: A consolation never is

    POSTED Nov 15, 2012 By Unknown
    Tough sequence on Wednesday, as only two of the ~143,500 combinations bet into the $89,489 Pick 6 carryover successfully navigated the sequence that ended with $111.50 winner Noosh's Tale.

     Difficulty is not an excuse for the Players' Pool, however, because as someone said to me after the races, "This is the type of result the Players' Pool should hit."

     I don't disagree. Between the three handicappers on the Players' Pool at least one of us mentioned every winner, and we all had Sportswriter as the most likely winner of leg 2 (race 5). Still, we only had one consolation payout to show for it.

     We considered using Sportswriter on every ticket, but each of us felt that he was vulnerable enough that we wanted an out if he lost. Sportswriter ended up on 71.2% of our tickets, which is equivalent to assigning him a fair value of 2-to-5.

     Noosh's Tale was on one of our tickets, but we needed Natalie Victoria to win the fourth leg (race 7) to connect with her, and she just wasn't good enough. Bad single.

     The other race we "missed" in the sense that the winner clearly wasn't one of our stronger picks was the third leg (race 6) when Star Black gave jockey Abel Castellano and trainer Randi Persaud their first winners of the meeting while paying $22.80. The horse fit, and I mention the jockey and trainer getting their first wins because one of the reasons I ultimately made this horse a "B" rather than an "A" is because she was co third choice on the morning line and with those connections I preferred the first-time starters at bigger prices.

    It's one thing to have all the dots on the page, but connecting them is obviously the key. What was the path yesterday? A 6x1x9x5x5x8 ticket would have cost $21,600 and hit for $84,000 (we'd have been the third winning ticket, so the payout would have been less) plus 28 consos for about a 2-to-1 ROI on our $25,000 investment. That's 86.4% of our money on Sportswriter, though, so instead of betting him like a 2-to-5 shot he's now 3-to-20. But, that's how we could have gotten it done.

    So lesson learned: Always single the big favorite. Just kidding! Just because the above would have worked this time doesn't mean that's the right play. Poker players understand this well. Just because you hit your inside straight on the river doesn't mean the call you made on the turn was necessarily correct or will be next time you're in a similar situation.

    But learning from the experience is always the right move. As Ernie Munick said on Facebook so poetically: "If I don't learn something when I handicap – a trip, a pedigree, a stat, an eccentricity of running or training or riding style, any pattern – then it feels like wasting time, with zero chance of the special."

  • Double carryover Pick 6 mania Wednesday at Aqueduct

    POSTED Nov 14, 2012 By Unknown
    As captain of the TwinSpires Players' Pool, I'm responsible for wagering $25,000 on the Pick 6 Wednesday at Aqueduct.

     $25,000 is a significant amount and will represent 5%-10% of the new money bet into the pool that already features a $89,489 carryover.

     The significance of the amount is not only in its volume but also in its effect on strategy. At this level of wagering, simply hitting the Pick 6 is not enough. Considering automatic withholding on any score greater than $5,000, the Pick 6 would need to pay at least $30,000 for the pool to break even, and that assumes that our consolations would total another $2,500 (it would also assume we hit the thing--no small task considering we're talking about only 8-12 winners based on pool estimates).

     The biggest question for today's sequence is what to do with Sportswriter, who won at this level three back, but that is his only win in his last seven tries, and he's giving weight to his competitors in this race (including some elders).


    Sportswriter certainly is the most likely winner, but is he a universal single? Put another way, is there more value in trying to hit it multiple times with Sportswriter or go against him? With 12,500 combinations at my disposal, the Players' Pool can do both, but balancing that ratio is essential. I'd hate to beat Sportswriter then miss elsewhere, but I'd hate for Sportswriter and a few other horses I really like to win and not have it multiple times.

    Post time for the first leg of the Pick 6 (race 4) is 1:47 EST, and Brisnet.com has lots of great handicapping information including a FREE Win Factor Report from fellow blog contributor Derek Simon.

    Good luck to everyone playing today.

  • Double trouble and other BC-inspired multi-race wagering observations

    POSTED Nov 6, 2012 By Unknown
    I already asked after last year's Breeders' Cup, "Is the daily double a bad bet?"
    Philosophically the answer is the same, "it depends," but when five of 13 double combinations come back less than the corresponding win parlay it's fair to ask whether targeting the rolling doubles is a good use of a player's bankroll.

     Friday was particularly frustrating for doubles players, as four of the five combos returned less than the parlay. Then on Saturday the marquee duo of Wise Dan and Fort Larned produced a $58.24 win parlay but only a $55.80 double.

     The Pick 3s on Friday did not fare much better with the first three Breeders' Cup-only sequences involving the first five Breeders' Cup races each paying less than the parlay. Beholder capped a $1,469.20 payout that was a staggering 33.5% less than the parlay involving Calidoscopio at 17.2-to-1 and Flotilla at 11.4-to-1.

     These results speak to my thought that --especially on big days--the cardinal ranking of a horse's odds is just as important as his win odds when assessing multi-race value. Calidoscopio at 17-to-1 and Flotilla at 11-to-1 look great on paper, but the former's win came in a race where many people were inclined to go deep, and the latter was one many would use with the favorite. Both led to a short field of Juvenile Fillies that was won by one of the few horses in the race who could win (even if she wasn't the favorite).

     The best value throughout Breeders' Cup appeared to come in races involving the Turf where Little Mike was probably longer than his 17.3-to-1 win odds in multi-race exotics. He capped a Pick 3 that paid nearly twice the parlay and kicked off a Pick 4 that paid 44.1% more than the parlay even though the late Pick 3 and aforementioned late double both paid less than the parlay.
    The Pick 4 remains best among Breeders' Cup wagering opportunities. Going back to 2006, it has never paid less than the corresponding parlay, and even Friday's sequence involving the Juvenile Fillies Turf, Juvenile Fillies, Filly & Mare Turf, and Ladies' Classic overcame short prices elsewhere to post a 5.8% premium over the parlay.

     Total handle on the two-day extravaganza dropped 9.5%, and while Hurricane Sandy and its aftermath were a big part of that, the wagering menu couldn't have helped with two Pick 4s on Friday covering five races, and of the only two Pick 4s on Saturday's 12-race card, just the late sequence used only Breeders' Cup races.

     A) The early portion of Friday's ten-race card absolutely needed a Pick 4. Yes, there was the Pick 5 on races 1-5, but that only included two Breeders' Cup races. A "normal" SoCal card has the Player's Pick 5 then an early Pick 4 on races 2-5. I don't know why that couldn't have worked this weekend.

     B) Saturday's program easily could have supported three, if not four, Pick 4 sequences. Having only two-all-BC Pick 4s on a card with nine Breeders' Cup races had to have hurt handle. The Juvenile was not part of a Pick 4, and that is definitely among the more popular races. Starting one with the Dirt Mile would have gotten a lot of action, and based on the win parlay of the four races involved would have paid at least $2,500 for $.50.

     Wagering on horse racing is pari-mutuel in nature, and understanding these types of payouts is crucial to long-term success. It's just a shame we have to wait six months to put them in practice!

  • Is handicapping Breeders' Cup more like Christmas or Hanukkah?

    POSTED Oct 23, 2012 By Unknown
    By this time tomorrow (i.e., Wednesday afternoon), we'll know which owners pre-entered their horses in what races, and preparation can begin in earnest for the Breeders' Cup World Championships November 2-3 at Santa Anita Park, and the $120-million up for grabs to bettors (assuming $150-million in handle with a blended take out of 20%).

     For many fans, preparation began long ago, of course with the watching, talking about, and re-watching of countless "prep" races during the summer and fall leading up to the 15 World Championships races, but regardless, there is something definitive about the release of pre-entries. It's a line in the sand, or as one colleague put it earlier this year regarding Arlington International Festival of Racing pre-entries, "From here on out, there are only subtractions."

     One of the key pieces of information revealed along with the pre entries is the order of races. As a bettor who highly favors multi-race wagers, race order is important to me and definitely impacts my two-day strategy.
    Some have called the night before pre-entries Christmas Eve, but I see it more like Hanukkah because each of the next eight days will bring new handicapping insights: PPs, analysis of international runners, final workouts, full-card PPs, Spotlight Selections, workout reports, etc.

     As with any big event--and particularly the Triple Crown and Breeders' Cup--information overload is a legitimate concern. I'm mostly (along with Jim Steinman) in the "too much is never enough" camp, but I also subscribe to the "think long, think wrong" theory, meaning balancing all the information with what to use and how to use it is delicate.

    My experience watching the prep races as well as reading the past performances (and associated data that comes out with it like pace and speed figures) is enough to answer an important question: Who can't win?

     From there, it's a matter classifying a horse's chances and what role I expect that horse to play in my wagering based on his/her chances of winning & odds relative to that chance. 

    On one hand, I try to avoid going into handicapping these races with preconceived notions of the best horses or who might offer value, but on the other hand, I watch a lot of races, and it'd be foolish not to rely on that experience.

  • Keeneloliquy

    POSTED Oct 13, 2012 By Unknown

    Keeneland has put together an absolutely fantastic card for its second Saturday of the meet. There's usually a hangover following most track's big weekends, but that's definitely not the case with this card, a blockbuster of full, competitive fields headlined by the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup.

    I normally don't support Grade 1 races restricted to three-year-olds so late in the year, but it would be difficult to say that the QE2 wasn't a blockbuster last year with the likes of Marketing Mix, Hungry Island, and Winter Memories all competing and going on to win Grade 1 races this year.

     There are plenty of other moneymaking opportunities on today's card, though: 9 doubles, 8 Pick 3s, 2 Pick 4s, and a Pick 5. My most likely winners on the card are #12 Divine Luck in race 4 and #8 Spun Cap in race 8.

     My best value is #5 Tulira Castle in race 3 and #5 Photo Shoot in race 5. Both are 5-to-1 on the morning line.

     Other notes:
    I'm disappointed Joe Nevills won't be on hand to witness Michigan-bred Meadow Magic contest the second race, an $8,000 starter allowance event. The Meadow Prayer gelding was last seen finishing fourth in a Michigan Sire Stakes race at Mount Pleasant Meadows. Joe was there that day, and he'll be at MPM again today for its closing weekend festivities.

     Also in the second race, jockey Carlos Villasana is married to Laura Villasana (nee Pepper). Like Joe Nevills, Laura is a former Thoroughbred Times intern. Their involvement in the racing industry outlasted the publication where they started.

     Race 4 has two obscure (to me, anyway) jockeys: Rick Knott pilots Elegant Jule, and Borja Fayos has the call on Beaucoup.

     Good luck today!

  • TwinSpires player scoops $71k Arlington Pick 9

    POSTED May 24, 2012 By Unknown

    Wayne Morgan never had an anxious moment on Wednesday at Arlington Park when cheering home his ninth winner of the Pick 9 sequence.

    One of his three picks, even money favorite Party Vision, opened a clear lead in the stretch, and the only two horses running late were the others on his ticket.

    Party Vision was one of five favorites to win on the nine-race card, including a quartet at 3-to-2 or less, so even with the $54,510 carryover going into Wednesday’s dime Pick 9, Morgan was not expecting a big pay day. Indeed, a $2 parlay on the nine winners would have returned about $25,000, which is only $1,250 for a dime.

    “I figured it’d be something because of the carryover, but I was thinking maybe a few thousand,” said Morgan whose two singles were even money favorite Mai Tai Mama in the first race and 3-to-2 favorite Dreams Die First in the fourth race. “I figured if I hit it on my ticket with all those favorites then other people probably did too.”

    Well, other people didn’t hit it, and Morgan’s $144 play returned $71,334.46 for nine of nine plus another $431.28 for a dozen eight-of-nine consolation tickets worth $35.94 each. By comparison the $1 Pick 6 returned $535.60 despite a parlay value of $835.21.

    “My only other big score was also on a Pick 9,” Morgan said. “That was a Place Pick 9 at Balmoral and paid about $5,000, so I’ve never experienced anything like this.”

    Morgan is a TSC Elite Gold member who wagers through TwinSpires.com and used TwinSpires.com’s mobile interface when placing his winning wagers on Wednesday. Still, the 59-year-old Air Force veteran and father of four says he enjoys making it to live racing when he can.

    “We’ve gone to the Trackside OTBs a few times, but Arlington is a real nice track,” said Morgan, who lives in Naperville, Illinois, about 28 miles southwest of Arlington Park. “I left work early on Wednesday so I could get out there. I’d be remiss if I didn’t thank Allison Sharfman [in Arlington marketing] for all her help when I attend the races or bring my family.”

    Morgan said that he takes a holistic approach to handicapping and doesn’t really favor any particular angle over another, though when pressed said he always takes class into consideration.

    “I like to look at the horses in the race and see what types of horses they’ve been running against—whether they’ve been facing better or worse than this race,” Morgan said.
    Morgan was alone as his score unfolded, and even though he thought he was probably sitting on a decent score going into the last race, he resisted the urge to call anyone because he didn’t want to jinx it. Even when he did call people, though, the veteran horseplayer said most didn’t believe him at first.

    “No one believed me when I told them how much I won on a dime bet,” Morgan said. “To tell the truth, I know it’s a lot of money, but it hasn’t sunk in yet just how much. I know we’ll find something to do with it, but we have no plans yet. I’m sure my kids are thinking of ways.”

    Morgan’s big score follows a similar windfall for TwinSpires players who took down the Solo 6 on April 17 at Sunland Park. One of those players, Julia Kring of Frankfort, Kentucky, hit the bet twice for $31,517.04 each way.

  • is the Daily Double a bad bet?
    & other Breeders' Cup-inspired multiple-race wagering angles

    POSTED Nov 10, 2011 By Unknown
    As with most topics when discussing racing, the answer to the above question is, "It depends."

    Four of the 13 daily doubles from this year's Breeders' Cup World Championships paid less than the win parlay coupling the two winners. Only one of 11 pick 3s paid less than the corresponding win parlay, and none of the three pick 4s did so.

    Overall since 2006, the average Daily Double payoff has been just 17.53% more than the win parlay while the pick 3 has offered an average 37.4% premium, and the pick 4 a most robust 60.57% bonus while never paying less than the parlay.

    The chart below lists the winners of each Breeders' Cup race since 2006 and the multiple-race wagering payouts for those races. My biggest takeaway from these results is the power of a single--even a favorite. If you approach a sequence as looking value rather than necessarily looking for a big score then a key horse becomes paramount.

    Look at the first all-Breeders' Cup pick three on Friday. 2-to-5 favorite Secret Circle kicked off a pick 3 that returned $540.80 for $2. A win parlay using 6.1-to-1 Stephanie's Kitten and 20.2-to-1 Musical Romance came back $421.46, but what's even more fascinating to me is you could have bought that $1 pick 3 for $168 and gotten back $270.40 while $168 to win on Secret Circle would have returned only $235.20. A Secret Circle-ALL-ALL pick three paid more than just betting Secret Circle to win.

    It doesn't always work out that way, of course. An ALL-ALL-Court Vision $1 pick 3 paid less than $117 to win on the 64.8-to-1 bomb, but the takeaway there is that Court Vision was probably more overlooked in the win pool than he was in other wagers.

    The Pick 3s and pick 4s are especially potent with favorites, though. For $121 you could have played a $1 pick four using ALL with My Miss Aurelia with ALL with Royal Delta. A $121 win parlay on My Miss Aurelia to Royal Delta would have paid $1,200.32. The $1 pick four paid $11,714.40.

    Obviously all this is easier said than done. I'd have been feeling pretty smart about myself had Union Rags won, and I was alive to five horses in the Classic after using "ALL" in the Mile. Of course, Union Rags didn't win, and even if he had, I didn't have Drosselmeyer as one of my Classic horses.

    But dwelling on that is being results-oriented. The macro approach for big race days is that the tougher the bet the better the value. From a psychological perspective, the pull of the daily double is strong. You only need to get two races right, and you can turn that $6 winner into $50, but the premium is definitely on getting four races right and turning $6 into $5,000 or more. I.e., you're better off playing a $1 pick 4 going 1x5x5x5 than a $25 double going 1x5. Even if you're only even money to advance through each leg, the pick 4 is more likely to pay 15-to-1 on your total investment than the double is to pay 3-to-1.

  • Breeders' Cup bonanza

    POSTED Nov 4, 2011 By Unknown
    All you need to know about why the Breeders' Cup is a great event not only for the horses and their connections but also the bettors can be found in the results of the first five races on Championship Friday when horses paid $5, $7, $7.80, $13.20, and $2.80 to produce a $3,258.40 pick five, which is more than five times the parlay!

    On these big days I think too many people over think how to string together their projected winners. The payoff on the pick five was such an overlay that clearly other payouts were underlays. That means people who were trying to take a shot against Secret Circle (or any of the other horses) most likely did not receive value for that opinion (in this case they obviously didn't because they lost, but it's important not to be results orientated when talking general handicapping topics).

    It can be unfashionable to pick favorites, but it's on big race days that the most logical horses offer value, so don't be afraid to take a stand, but the key there is to take a stand. Either you think a horse like Secret Circle is going to win or you don't. After him, the rest of the field was evenly matched. Adding horses doubles, triples, etc. the cost of the ticket and takes value away from your core opinion.

    For views on the Breeders' Cup races from top Brisnet.com handicappers (including me!), visit the Breeders' Cup Special Reports page on the handicapping tab of TwinSpires.com!
    note: Not all products are a part of the Ultimate Breeders' Cup Handicapping Package. Standard retail charges apply to products that are not a part of the package.

  • Players' Pool excitement

    POSTED Oct 25, 2011 By Unknown
    One of the items on my job description I was most excited about when I signed on as director of marketing at Bloodstock Research Information Services was the role of captain of the TwinSpires.com Players' Pool.

    I'm a big believer in syndicate betting for two reasons: A) I think it gives all involved a better chance at hitting a big number that still includes logical horses, and B) it's a great way to introduce bettors to the super exotic wagers that produce some of racing's biggest payoffs.

    Both points speak to the original mission of the bet when brisnet.com launched account wagering's first-ever Player's Pool for the 2004 Breeders Cup. The splash was immediate when the syndicate returned better than 9-to-2 to its investors by scoring five consolation pick six tickets worth $56,149 each for a total return of $280,748 on a $44,280 investment (it missed Wilko).

    My predecessor at BRIS, Rich Nilsen, was an inaugural panelist and went on to captain several successful pools for TwinSpires. Although I have no experience betting $100,000 in a single weekend, I have pushed through my share of big wagers on behalf of other people through the years as captain of my own Big Event Syndicate that showed a 6.12% profit across12 events dating back to the 2007 Kentucky Derby.


    The goal is not to grind a profit year to year, but to have the big score.

    Obviously I'm proud of a long-term profit in this game, but year to year being close to a big score but zeroing out always seemed more fun than breaking even. I get that something is better than nothing, but I don't think anyone puts $10 into a wagering syndicate really hoping for $12 back. Being alive for a chance at a 4-to-1 score versus being alive to break even is worth the $10 to go for gusto even if you roll craps now and again.

    And so it will go with this year's Player's Pool. Or put another way, if Breeders' Cup day chalks out, then we're going to lose. We definitely want to leverage our capital to catch the logical contenders who pay $20 to win and even some of the fringe contenders who pay much more than that (Midday was Players' Pool handicapper Jude Feld's best bet last year).

    Those interested for my thought process behind how we structured $100,000 worth of tickets can check out the multiple race wagering analysis available via brisnet beginning Thursday, November 3. That file itself is $5 but is included for those who subscribed to the Ultimate Breeders' Cup Handicapping Package.