Showing posts with label pick 3. Show all posts
Showing posts with label pick 3. Show all posts

  • More Profit Hunting In Yonkers’ Series

    POSTED Apr 9, 2014 By Frank Cotolo
    Here we go again with Yonkers Raceway’s George Morton Levy Memorial and Blue Chip Matchmaker pacing series. It’s round four this weekend. The ‘Levy’ and Matchmaker divisions, as we wrote in our review blog, have been tough to win with the kinds of prices we are used to getting but we have managed to adapt to the uneven flow of prices due to having so many horses coupled. We have managed to squeeze some decent prices out of these fields, especially when place and/or show betting is allowed and even when place isn’t allowed, by hitting exactas with the favorites that pay reasonably.

    So, we go at it again, trying to overcome the adversity presented by the Levy fields and scores of bettors content to cash tickets worth anything. We still feel there are some serious contenders aboard for the series and there is no reason not to zero in on their chances to pay in spades should any win.

    At the Meadowlands again this Friday, we engage in the Pick 3 that is inclusive with the Early Pick 4 and offer contenders for the difficult multi-exotics. Please consider these horses for your combo ticket and for win, place and show (last week we hit two winners that paid off well across-the-board.

    Until Nov. 18, Hoosier Park is the place to play for TwinSpires Pick-4 bonus bets. The bonus feature includes every Pick 4 on every Hoosier program. We will be adding Hoosier to our horses to watch (H2W) list and suggesting horses during the week on Twitter @FrankCotolo and @TwinSpires. Click here for details.

    And of course, the horses to watch (H2W), presented exclusively for TwinSpires harness blog, carries on its productive parade of contenders that usually offer a bounty of across-the-board prices and serve as profitable members of exotics.


    Leveling Levys

    Yonkers Raceway presents three divisions of Levy’s fourth-round on Saturday, April 12 and we are excavating for value despite the adversities presented in these four-turn battles.

    In division one the value problem goes deeper than usual, with a field of seven reduced to five betting entities due to Ron Burke having a trio going for him. If you want to go outside of the entry to win and keep it as a key for exotics, use Keystone Velocity. Although he comes from the 7 hole here, last week, in only his fourth race of the season, he made up about 10 lengths to finish fourth at 75-1. It’s an upset depending on any number of situations but worth a shot considering the others outside of the entry.

    Division two also houses a three-pronged Burke team. The best of the rest from last week is our choice last week, Versado. He closed 8 lengths in his trip to finish fourth at 48-1. With eight starts in 2014 he has finished second five times. Again, he is worth backing as an upset and a good second to the Burke brigade in exotics.

    Finally, we face the mighty Foiled Again, the most prolific earner in the sport’s history; something few to none of his supporters at the windows can say assisted in their success. To add insult to injury, Burke’s other contestant is Bettor’s Edge, who is in his best form so far this season. His efforts in this series have even been bettor than those of Foiled Again, considering his moves during the miles. If you intend to key the Burke duo, use Dancin Yankee and Texican N behind them but if neither of those win, don’t expect to need Pinkertons to escort you home after you collect.

    Matchmaker Mares

    Friday, April 11, there are three divisions in the fourth round of the Matchmaker series. Unfortunately, two of the three mares that had impressive trips last week appear in the first division this week and the other is missing. There are three short fields this week.
    In division one the outsider, again, should be Fashion Mystery. We nailed her for second in round two at an astounding 44-1, catching the triple, too (Ramalama, here in post 2) each exotic paying quite well compared to the series’ payoff history thus far. She is in post 5 of six in division one and should be a strong player.

    We loved the way Bettor B Lucky used the final quarter last week in a two-move effort that got her home fourth but she comes along with the other Ron Burke property, Charisma Hanover. That one has had few excuses for losing twice already but as an entry she and “Bettor” may reduce the value element of this race. Fashion Mystery may still offer a decent price to win and for an exacta due to the unknown element here, the first Matchmaker appearance of Monkey On My Wheel.

    ”Monkey” has been very competitive up north, is a wild card in any race and won an overnight here last week. We can only leave her out of the contest here, considering she is up against stronger content than last week and may be the ruin in a speed duel, which favors our choices.

    Division two features one Burke horse, so with no coupled entries we can shoot for a well-deserved upset, if we can beat Anndrovette. Angels Delight will be the second choice and can beat “Ann,” but we want the entity least likely to grab the public’s attention in a rare seven-horse Matchmaker field.

    Our support, therefore, will go to Let’s Go Higher. She was weighed with post 8 last week and began 11 lengths out of it. She finished a mere 4 ¾ lengths behind Yagonnakissmeornot, who won by 2 over Angels Delight. From post 7 “Higher” needs to get a stronger position mid-field early and use her one burst to take advantage of what may be a burning duel.

    Division three brings together six strongly competitive mares. This is a tight event to call and it may go to a low-priced overlay if bettors lean on a single mare. We can hope wagering centers upon Yagonnakissmeornot, who won here last week and the betting will be softer for Somwherovraraibow. But the latter is three for three this week, a buzz mare and her speed badge will impress bettors. With those two on the outside, then, we may have a shot with a decent price from Summertime Lea from post 1. Judge the price for yourself but as a third choice she should be worth support.

    Pickin’ In Jersey 

    The Meadowlands Early Pick 4 (April 11, $30,000 guaranteed pool, 15-percent take), tails off into the Pick 3 with its second leg. Here are some suggested contenders for the multi-race exotics, as well as they are sound across-the-board competitors.

    Early Pick 4 (Races 3 through 6)
    R3—use 7 Special Command
    Pick 3, (Races 4, 5 & 6)
    R4—use 3 Miss Machqueen, 7 Day To Ponder
    R5—use 6 C-O-To Bluegrass, 7 Lindy Mcdreamy
    R6—use 8 Hobe Sound

    H2W Legend

    Review our choices and follow the wagering at the prescribed track. These are possible contenders we have judged from reviewing races. The horses’ names are listed beneath the name of the track after the date they will be racing. The race in which they are entered (R and race number) follows. If a + is in front of a horse’s name it means it is appearing on the list for the second (and last time) because it failed to win the first time it appeared. An “AE” signals the horse is entered but on the also-eligible list. Types of wagering on any of the H2W listed horses are based on your judgment. If you have any questions, email us at TwinSpires.

    H2W

    Cal Expo
    4/11/14, +Jimmi’s Fantasy N R9; +Sleigh Belle R11
    4/12/14, Western Tower R9

    Freehold
    4/12/14, +Screen The Call R9; +Royal Todd R11 

    Hoosier
    4/10/14, Alligator Falls R1
    4/12/14, Stop The Traffic R7; Jammin Joshua R11

    Meadowlands
    4/11/14, +Cult Status R7

    Meadows
    4/11/14, Spicey Victor R13; +JJ Gladiator R14

    Miami Valley
    4/10/14, Xtra Perfect R5

    Pocono
    4/12/14, +Banker Volo R3; Bagel Man R4; +Desperation R8; +Trys Little Prince R8

    Pompano
    4/5/14, +Mystical Muscles R4

    Rosecroft
    4/12/14, +Chepachet R12

    Saratoga
    4/10/14, +Muncie R6
    4/11/14, Sarkozy R12

    Scarborough
    4/12/14, +Southwind Missouri R4

    Vernon
    4/12/14, Unicorn Hanover R7; Sundowner Bob R8

    Yonkers
    4/11/14, +Mctaylor R7

    Ray Cotolo contributed to each Thursday edition.      

  • Cotolo’s Harness Review, News And Notes

    POSTED Apr 6, 2014 By Frank Cotolo

    This weekend’s features, once again, did not equal the successes of our overnight choices, mostly due to what has been occurring with the features, that is, the “Levy” at Yonkers. We managed to do well enough, though, considering the circumstance.

    In a rare state of agreement with Harness Racing Update’s Bill Finley, we believe bettors have not had much to target in the series’ with public choices annihilating prices., Five of the nine winners paid $3.10 or less in the first two Levy legs. The hubbub centers on the many entries from the Ron Burke barn and the coupling rule. As Finley writes, you cannot blame Burke or Yonkers, it is the fault of the racing commission for not changing the rule.

    For the fact of the terrible prices, we feel nothing short of famous for our performance at Yonkers on April 5 in the series third leg. We nailed division three with Apprentice Hanover in a race with two coupled entries, The field of seven had only five betting entities, making the price (no place or show betting) sterling for the occasion. Apprentice Hanover paid $7.50.

    As well, in division two, using the race favorite with our second choice, Sapphire City ($6.70, no show betting) created an exacta worth $17.20. You can only imagine how the prices would have swelled had there been no coupling.

    In the Matchmaker at Yonkers on Friday, April 4, we supplied and exacta and two thirds of the trifecta with the favorite atop the tickets. Fashion Mystery (44-1) paid $11 to place (no show betting) resulting in an exacta worth $34.20. Our other choice, Ramalama did not pay off for third but contributed to the trifecta worth $74.50.

    Then, Friday at the Meadowlands we offered a few horses, which you may have added to your Pick 3 and Early Pick 4 tickets and/or played across the board. We gave you the first-leg winner, Upfront Elizabeth ($11.80, $6.40, $2.80) and the fourth-leg winner, Drift Away ($25.20, $11.40, $6.80).

    The 50-cent bonus Pick 4 bonus at Buffalo Raceway on Wednesdays with a 10-percent-bonus on winning the exotic ended with April 5’s combination. Our Twitter suggestions did not produce winners but on the board, two were huge payoffs for place and show. Blow Away was third, paying $12.80 in leg one, while A And G’s Doll paid $25.40 to place and $9.10 to show.

    TwinSpires now switches to Indiana with the Hoosier 10-percent Pick 4 Bonus. Every time you cash a winning Pick 4 ticket at Hoosier Park, you receive a bonus equal to 10 percent of the gross winnings, up to $500 per night. We will assist on Twitter occasionally, with suggestions for your tickets. Follow @FrankCotolo and @TwinSpires for choices.

    For complete details:
    | http://www.twinspires.com/10-pick-4-bonus-every-night-hoosier-park


     H2W RESULTS

    The H2W results list across-the-board prices. Also, exactas are included when a H2W horse finishing first or second completes the result with a race favorite or another H2W horse listed in the same race (an asterisk appears when both horses were listed to complete the exacta).

    Winners

    Make You Famous, $9.80, $3.80, $3.60 (Exacta $21.20), Pompano
    Silverlode, $9.80, $4.60, $3.20 (Exacta $16.20), Cal Expo
    Lucky Man Again, $4.80, $3.40, $2.20, Cal Expo
    Beach Boy Tiger, $3.50, $2.40, $2.10, Saratoga

    Seconds

    Doctor Gates, $20.40, $6.50, $5.30, Buffalo
    Muncie, $6.50, $2.70, Saratoga
    Trys Little Prince, $5.80, $3, Pocono
    Me Tarzan, $5.20, $3.20, Cal Expo
    Sparky Mark, $3.60, $2.40 (Exacta $9.60), Pocono

    Thirds

    Village Jackson, $8.60, Saratoga
    Milliondollarmarch, $4.30, Saratoga
    Mama Made Me Blue, $2.80, Miami Valley
    Southwind Missouri, $2.80, Scarborough

    News And Notes

    Maven, Uncle Peter, Shebestingin, Archangel, D’Orsay and Rockin Amadeus were among the stars qualifying over the weekend at the Meadowlands. The return to the races for several stakes types is eminent. Archangel prepped after spending 2013 at stud. He now resides in the Burke bar. He won his qualifier racing against the wind. Four-year-old Ma Chere Hall, a success as a choice at this blog last year, was second for trainer Jonas Czernyson, who also sent out Mistery Woman and aged mares Maven and D’Orsay. They finished second and third, respectively, behind Jimmy Takter’s millionaire Uncle Peter. Shebestingin came back for a second trial and won for trainer Joe Holloway. He had another winner with Always B Miki, sired by Joe’s classics winner Always A Virgin.

    April begins a full slate of stakes action at Northfield Park. The $100,000 (guaranteed) Courageous Lady will go to post on Friday, April 25. A nationally open stakes event for North America’s top three year-old filly pacers, it is the first national stakes race of the 2014 season. Among the 16 fillies nominated to the Courageous Lady are last year’s frosh standouts A La Notte Hanover, Fiyonce, Rustys Bliss and Sister Stroll. The connections of top three year-olds in the country have shown great interest in the newly added $500,000 (est.) Carl Milstein Memorial. The race for three-year-old colt and gelding pacers is the richest single standardbred event in Ohio for 2014 and has been slated for Friday, Aug.15. Included in the 42 nominees are Allstar Partner, Boomboom Ballykeel, Luck Be Withyou and Western.

    The $150,000 Cleveland Classic is the final open stakes event this year. North America’s top soph-pacing colts take the stage on Friday, Dec. 12. There are 38 colts nominated to the Cleveland Classic, including last year’s standouts Allstar Partner, Boomboom Ballykeel and Hes Watching. In other racing news at Northfield Park, the $150,000 (g.) Battle Of Lake Erie is set for Saturday, July 19 and has 25 nominees that have combined career earnings in excess of $23 million, including Apprentice Hanover, Bolt The Duer and Foiled Again. “Battle” nominees also include Aracache Hanover, Clear Vision, Heston Blue Chip, Michaels Power and Sweet Lou.

    Northfield Park’s Stakes Calendar for 2014:
    Friday, April 25 - Courageous Lady
    Thursday, July 3 - Ohio Sires Stakes (frosh filly pace and trot) 
    Saturday, July 19 - Battle Of Lake Erie
    Ohio Sires Stakes - (two- and three-year-old colt pace and trot)
    Saturday, July 26 - Summit County Fair Stakes
    Friday, Aug. 15 - Carl Milstein Memorial
    Friday, Sept. 5 - Ohio Sires Stakes (two- and three-year-old filly pace and trot)
    Friday, Dec.12 - Cleveland Classic

    Extraordinary Extras

    Indulge in many standardbred topics at my Hoof Beats blog titled Vast Performances.

    Ray Cotolo contributed to this blog

    Cartoons by Thom Pye

  • The Truth About the Pick Three

    POSTED Aug 30, 2013 By Derek Simon
    At one time, the goal of most racetrack gamblers — if they had a goal at all — was to pick winners. Read any handicapping book published before Al Gore invented the Internet (when a “cell phone” was still a phone used by prison inmates) and you’ll see what I mean.

    In the original “Betting Thoroughbreds,” for example, Steve Davidowitz discusses Beyer speed figures — then produced by the man himself and not the Daily Racing Form — by relating how they affected his success rate.

    “In the first season, the results said 176 winners in 310 picks. Fifty-three percent,” Davidowitz wrote. “A flat bet profit in all categories.”

    Nowhere in his book does Davidowitz mention what that flat-bet profit, or return on investment (ROI), was. That’s because, back then, it didn’t matter. The assumption was that if one could “out-pick” the crowd, one would win.

    Two decades later, Andrew Beyer realized how wrong this premise had been.

    “At Gulfstream Park in 1990, all of my worst fears about the nature of the pari-mutuel competition materialized,” the dean of speed-figure handicapping wrote. “My speed figures — which had now advanced into the computer age — had never been so refined. I was watching races, assessing individual horses’ efforts, and detecting track biases more astutely than ever before. I was handling my money and my emotions with skill and maturity — a great step forward from the time I punched a hole through the wall of Gulfstream’s press box in a rage over an unjust disqualification. I felt that I was at the very top of my game as a gambler. And still I couldn’t win. My lack of success was due not to bad luck or photo finishes or any of the other traumas that plague all horseplayers. My frustration was best demonstrated by some of the winners I picked — by horses like Memorable Skier.”

    Beyer went on to say that Memorable Skier had finished out of the money (worse than third) in all of his nine career races against maiden competition and was now facing winners, which, under normal circumstances, would make the horse an instant toss for most handicappers.

    “But his speed figures were competitive and, in his last start, [Memorable Skier] had been forced to race wide on a track with a strong rail-favoring bias,” Beyer explained. “Now he was running again on a day when the rail was an advantage, and he had drawn post position 5, with four slow-breaking horses inside him. I concluded that the maiden would be able to drop to the rail and lead all the way. When I went to the track that day, prepared to make a killing, I thought Memorable Skier embodied all of the handicapping skills I had spent a lifetime learning.

    “The race went just as I expected,” Beyer went on. “Memorable Skier popped out of the gate, angled to the rail, led all the way to win by six lengths — and paid $6.20. A pitiful $6.20.

    “Even at a track heavily populated by tourists and retirees, the betting public had become smart and well-informed,” Beyer concluded.

    While I don’t necessarily believe that the crowd had suddenly become “smart and well-informed” (I think that was always the case to a certain degree), it is noteworthy that Beyer was complaining about Memorable Skier’s price after the race had been run (and he had presumably bet). Outside of his reference to making “a killing,” he gave no indication as what his expectations were before the race.

    Fast forward another 20 years and little has changed in the minds of some handicappers. Despite declining field sizes, arguably fewer quality races, drugs (both legal and illegal) and a host of other new variables to muddle the handicapping picture, many folks analyze races today like they did when Sheena Easton won a Grammy for Best New Artist — they focus entirely on picking the winner.

    Of course, many realize, as Beyer did, that prices are not what they once were on standout horses, particularly those with a speed or class edge. Enter the horizontal wager: the pick-3, pick-4, pick-5 and pick-6.

    Because these types of bets focus almost entirely on picking the race winner, bettors flock to them like foam fingers to Miley Cyrus. But are these kinds of bets such a great deal? Personally, I have my doubts, so I decided to conduct a little test.

    I looked at my database stats for Saratoga during the first week of August in an effort to determine whether or not pick-3 wagering, in particular, made more sense (and more dollars, for that matter) than straight win betting.

    First, because so many pick-three bettors are looking to beat the favorite in one or more of the legs, I checked to see how the post-time favorite in pick-3 sequences fared over the studied period (Aug. 1-5):
    Favorites: 49
    Winners: 12
    Win Rate: 24.5%
    ROI: -36.43%
    Next, I determined what the average $2 pick-3 returned:
    Avg. Pick-3 Payoff (46 sequences): $353.78
    Then, I computed what a simple $2 parlay on the same races would have produced:
    Avg. Three-Race Parlay (46 sequences, same races as above): $295.90
    “Ah-ha,” I can hear some of you exclaim. “You see, you see (you’re a very excitable lot), the pick-3 offers better value than a parlay” (which is typically the argument for pick-3 wagering).

    OK, that’s true; has been for many years. This is due to the fact that the pick-3 pool extracts takeout and breakage, albeit at a higher rate, just once, whereas each race in a three-race parlay is subject to the track and government’s wrath.

    What this viewpoint ignores is something that economists refer to as “opportunity costs,” or the foregone benefits of other options. And I would argue that those benefits, in many cases, are better than those offered by the pick-three.

    Permit me to explain: Let’s say that you like Horse A, at, say, 4-5 odds, in a particular race. But because of the short price, you decide to bet a pick-3 singling Horse A in the opening leg. Assuming that Horse A wins, what kind of a return do you need to beat the resulting $3.60 payoff?

    Many of you will say $3.61… and many of you would be wrong. A $3.61 payoff assumes a single $2 bet and a 100 percent strike rate in each of the two remaining legs of the pick-3… which could only be guaranteed if one were to cover all the possible combinations.

    So, for the sake of argument, let’s pretend there are eight horses in each of the last two legs of our mythical pick-3. Assuming that we hit the “ALL” button, our ticket cost now stands at $128 ($2 x 1 x 8 x 8). Hence, we would need a pick-3 payoff of $230.40 to match (not exceed) what a corresponding $128 win bet on Horse A would have returned.

    This is not good news considering that the three pick-3’s in my study that led off with an odds-on winner returned an average of $166.47. Granted, a three-race sample is hardly proof of concept, but it’s not encouraging either.

    “But Derek,” I hear some of you complaining, “nobody hits the ‘ALL’ button on two legs, especially with a big favorite leading off.”
    A valid point, but keep in mind: The minute one starts limiting the pick-3 combinations, one’s winning percentage goes down. So what started as a high percentage play on a 4-5 shot now becomes a much lower-percentage one.

    And that uncertainty must be taken into account if one is playing for profit and not just the gratification of having a winning ticket.

    Are You Ready For Some Football?

    With the kickoff of the NFL season on Thursday, I thought I would re-post a video I did for Youbet.com a few years ago. 


  • POSTED Jul 27, 2013 By Unknown
    Day eight of the Saratoga Race Course meeting features two Grade 1 races, and in a testament to the lure of the three-year-old male division, a Grade 2 that many will view as the feature.

     It's certainly likely to be the feature of my wagering strategy, as I've made Mylute a lone "A" in the Jim Dandy Stakes. I don't know if we'll get 7-to-2, but I'd be thrilled with 5-to-2 considering he's getting weight as the fastest horse. As I learned to say in Maryland, "C'mon Rosie!"

     The rest of the day should be just as exciting with old warriors leading into a pair of baby races in the early Pick 3. Kauai Katie should dazzle in the Prioress, and since the Diana is so competitive I'm going with the longest shot on the board--Laughing--in a contest I'm in.


    Good luck to all!

  • Rocking Around the Clock on Saturday at TwinSpires.com

    POSTED Jun 21, 2013 By Unknown
    Near-around the clock action is nothing new on TwinSpires.com, but the class of the races offered on Saturday--with group and graded stakes action beginning with Royal Ascot in the morning and concluding with Churchill Downs "after dark"--is pretty special.

     My Royal Ascot selections have been abysmal this week (literally haven't picked a winner), so I won't effort one on Saturday. Instead, I suggest Brisnet.com's Daily Selections & Spotlight Selections products--both of which have provided top selections paying $20-plus such as Kiyoshi in the Albany Stakes.

     To keep things interested throughout the day stateside, TwinSpires.com offers a 1-million-point "Play All Day" promotion requiring a winning Pick 3 at Belmont Park, Hollywood Park, and Churchill Downs. Throw in stakes action at Colonial Downs, and it's certainly a busy day even with just the one Grade 1 race (the Mother Goose at Belmont Park).

     Speaking of that race, it probably offers the biggest free square of all in Dreaming of Julia, who I won't be trying to beat in this spot. Even her supposed "off" Kentucky Oaks defeats this field, and I'm more interested in her as a Pick 4 single than as a vulnerable favorite.

     Even though the Mother Goose is on the East Coast, the big-time domestic stakes action actually starts out West with the Hollywood Oaks, another race--like the Mother Goose--for three-year-old fillies that, to me, features a multi-race wager free square.

    Doinghardtimeagain won't be near the favorite Dreaming of Julia will be, but she's nearly as likely a winner. Instead of the 10.2-point Prime Power advantage Dreaming of Julia has over her foes, Doinghardtimeagain is up just 8.6 points on her closest pursuer, but given her speed and pace edge I'm inclined to single her with just as much confidence.

     So now that we've established who will win at short prices, who can we beat to find some value throughout the day? The two graded turf races at Colonial Downs--the All Along & Colonial Turf Cup--both offer some promise.

     In the Colonial Turf Cup, both Atigun and Air Support have the look of horses who will take too much money, which hopefully leaves Swift Warrior at his 7-to-2 morning line, which I see as a fair price. Two horses I'll be looking to spice things up with--both as a win threat in the multis and anywhere on the ticket in the verticals--are Roadhog and Two Notch Road. The former stretches back out on his third start off the layoff and has some races last year at longer distances that can win this. Two Notch Road intrigues as a speed threat at a nice price.

     In the All Along, Channel Lady is tough for me to like as such a clear favorite (7-to-5 morning line). Adjacent gets class tested here, but her four wins at four different major-circuit tracks give me the confidence that she can hang with these. Welcome Dance looks capable of being the speed and should be fresh off the layoff, but you never know what you're going to get with Julien Leparoux in that regard. Still, 8-to-1 compensates you for those questions.

     The stakes action concludes at Churchill Downs where two-year-old fillies go under lights (sort of, it is the second-longest day of the year), and only 40% of this field is capable of winning. Anyone but the 7, 8, 9, or 10 would shock me. That's not to say an upset can't happen, though, because 7, 8, & 10 are the clear favorites, and #9, Del Mar Holiday, has a shot at 8-to-1. Teardrop is the 2-to-1 morning line favorite, and it's tough to ignore the impressiveness of her debut given the early trouble and wide trip, but her stablemate Del Mar Holiday has run well despite drifting in both starts. I realize you don't want a horse stepping up to stakes who drifts, but the connections give me enough hope that it's a correctable issue, and two-to-three times the price on the other logical contenders has me hoping a straight run is good enough.

    The stakes action concludes with the Roxelana for distaff sprinters, and between Glamor Puss and Apropos, I prefer the former who looks to have a bit more punch late at a similar pace. Both are making their stakes debuts, so for a class edge you could do worse than Funnys Approval who deserves a look at a big price as a horse who could be the speed. In that regard, toss her last with gate trouble and maybe a run back to the Fritchie gets the job done here.

    So that's what's coming up this weekend. For a look back on last weekend, check out the video below from Triple Crown Insider, as it takes a look at the Breeders' Cup Classic division featuring big wins by Fort Larned and Paynter.

  • Getting over a hump day hump at Keeneland imperative to multi-race success

    POSTED Apr 10, 2013 By Unknown
    As a Pick N player, the most important race today at Keeneland is not the featured seventh--an entry-level allowance worth $60,000--but the blue collar fifth--a starter allowance for $7,500 types worth $21,000.

     It's not the type of race that makes the fifth so important but where it falls on the card. Keeneland has only eight races today, and since it starts its early Pick 4 in race 2 instead of the lid lifter, the fifth race is pivotal as both the last leg of that Pick 4 as well as the opening leg of the late (races 5-8) Pick 4. The fifth race is also the second leg of the Pick 5 and is one of four races on the card that is a part of three Pick 3s on a day there is only six of them total.

     I.e., if I whiff on race 5 it's very unlikely to be a good day for me.

     So what to make of this all important race? Well, #7 Point Finish & #12 Tobes the Man are clearly the most likely winners of this group with Point Finish even the more likely of the two, but Point Finish will take more money than Tobes the Man, which is why I have them as joint "A" selections. #10 Headstart is 20-to-1 on the morning line, and although I'm talking about this race mostly in the scope of the multis, this gelding would absolutely be a vertical key for me with the two obvious horses at anything close to that 20-to-1 price.

     Elsewhere on the card I would absolutely love it if #1 War Dancer really were 6-to-1 in the aforementioned featured seventh race, but I just don't see the supposed favorites taking that much more money than this one. 4-to-1 would be more than fair, though, and #12 Five Iron is an intriguing gate-to-wire threat.

    The eighth race closes it off and features a $80k+ Super High Five carryover. That bet gets so expensive so fast even big carryovers rarely lure me in, but I might take a stab since I like my "A" trio and have another trio of horses I don't like for the exacta at all.

    The complete ABC grid for the eight-race card on Wednesday, April 10, at Keeneland is below.

     

  • Playing the Pick Three

    POSTED Jan 19, 2013 By Derek Simon
    I have long stated that horizontal wagers are a tricky business. Not only is it difficult to pick three winners in a row, but one is also at the mercy of the crowd, dependent on Lady Luck for a decent price or two to make the wager worthwhile.

     Back in March, I wrote about how one could lessen this risk and locate potential value legs in a horizontal sequence. Using my Win Factor line (although any type of grading technique would do), “I found that if my top two contenders had a combined morning line odds ranking of 10 or greater or if my top three contenders had a total morning line odds ranking of 15 or greater, the race generally presented great pick-3 or even daily double possibilities.”

     Of course, we all know that there can be a big difference between practice and theory, so I decided to put my money where my mouth is this weekend and test my pick-3 theories on real, live races… with real (though fortunately not live) money.

    On Saturday, I looked at races from two of my favorite winter tracks, Aqueduct and Tampa Bay Downs.

    At Aqueduct, I thought the pick-3 starting in the fourth race looked promising. Here’s what my Win Factor Report showed:

     (Click on image to enlarge)

    Now, there were two things I liked about this particular sequence: 1) The top three contenders in the opening leg had a combined morning-line odds ranking of 12, while the final leg had a ranking (after scratches) of 18; 2) Sandwiched in between those events was the fifth race, in which N. F.’s Destiny looked like a virtual lock following the withdrawal of Driven by Solar, Isn’tlovejustgrand and Warrioroftheroses.

    As it turned out, I decided to toss out 3-Why Not Her in the opening leg due to the fact that her speed and pace figures were horrible (frankly, Awesome Island’s weren’t a lot better… but she was 38-1, whereas Why Not Her was 6-1).


    (Click on image to enlarge)

    So what happened?

    Well, She’s Gospel led from flag fall to finish in the fourth race, N. F.’s Destiny cruised in the fifth event and Maggiesfreuddnslip scored a predictable 32-1 upset in the sixth. The $1 pick three paid $214.25 (my actual bet on TwinSpires.com is listed below).


    (Click on image to enlarge)

    The other pick-3 sequence I liked on Saturday began in the ninth race at Tampa Bay Downs. Again, here is what my Win Factor Report looked like:


    (Click on image to enlarge)

    I was fond of this particular sequence for different reasons than the Aqueduct sequence. Despite the fact that he was favored on my WFR line, I thought Dazzlin Dr. Cologne was very beatable — at short odds — in the ninth race.

    Look at his past performances and see if you can tell why.

    (Click on image to enlarge)

    Notice that for all intents and purposes Dazzlin Dr Cologne, who was the odds-on favorite in this race, needs the lead to win. Yet, even with the scratch of the ultra-speedy Raven Train, the Tampa Bay ninth was loaded with early speed types and the only times the eight-year-old gelded son of Cutlass Fax had to exert himself in the early going (-11 ESR on Dec. 26 and -10 ESR on Jan. 10, 2012) he recorded subpar speed figures.

     I also liked the final leg of the sequence, where Sarge’s, Ashtyn Too and Beat Your Bluff had a cumulative odds ranking of 17.

     I admit when it came time to bet, I kind of wimped out and decided to use (the bad) "Doctor" just in case I had misjudged the early pressure he would face. I also threw in 6-Follow the Rhythm, who had good pace figures, in the ninth; and I tossed in 8-Sleepless Knight in the eighth for the same reason.

    It turns out I needn’t have bothered.

    2-Fifth Street won the ninth, 11-Alley Oop Oop triumphed by the scantest of margins in the 10th and Ashtyn Too found an opening on the rail to annex the 11th.


    (Click on image to enlarge)

    Try this approach to your own horizontal wagers and see if it helps. By looking for a leg or two that you have a strong opinion in — along with some value — you may boost your ROI at the track, along with your enjoyment of the races.


    (Click on image to enlarge)

     Best of Breeding

    If you’re like a lot of my degenerate handicapping friends and love to delve into horses’ pedigrees, you’ll want to check out American Produce Records from Brisnet.com. Not only will you get great stats, you’ll get ‘em for FREE until the end of the month.

    And the Winners Are…

    The hand-wringing, posturing and self-serving braggadocio is over… at least until next year. At Gulfstream Park in Hallandale, Florida, on Saturday, the 42nd Annual Eclipse Awards ceremony took place. Below is a list of the big winners:

    TWO-YEAR-OLD COLT – Shanghai Bobby
    TWO-YEAR-OLD FILLY – Beholder
    STEEPLECHASE HORSE – Pierrot Lunaire
    FEMALE TURF HORSE – Zagora
    MALE TURF HORSE – Wise Dan
    FEMALE SPRINTER – Groupie Doll
    MALE SPRINTER – Trinniberg
    THREE-YEAR-OLD COLT – I'll Have Another
    THREE-YEAR-OLD FILLY – Questing
    OLDER FEMALE – Royal Delta
    OLDER MALE – Wise Dan
    HORSE OF THE YEAR – Wise Dan