• Crazy Little Thing Called Love

    POSTED Jun 21, 2013
    Based on a Google search and absolutely no attempt on my part to verify the veracity of the information (I feel like a real journalist now), it was Confucius who said: “Choose a job you love, and you will never have to work a day in your life.”

    He also said that “it does not matter how slowly you go as long as you do not stop” — a statement that was taken quite literally by an old lady I was stuck behind merging onto the freeway the other day.

    I think you get my point: Confucius was an idiot.

    Hey, I love horse racing — the color, the excitement, the arguments on various social media outlets over which horse is ducking the competition; and I especially love handicapping — the numbers, the analysis, the arguments on various social media outlets over which horse should have won but didn’t because the jockey/trainer/horse is a moron… I love it all.

    But, there is a fine line between love and obsession — and an even finer line between obsession and bat-(expletive) crazy. Over the past couple of weeks, while working feverishly to complete my new Pace Profile Reports, I have crossed that line.

    I’m not talking about tentatively putting my toe across the line, like one testing the temperature of the pool, mind you. I’m talking about crossing the line like Amanda Bynes on Twitter.

    One afternoon at the grocery store, groggy from a night of studies, I attempted to compute the speed figure of the checkout lady, but she only stared at me blankly when I blurted out “13!” Another time, at the gym, I tried to figure out my late speed ration (LSR) on the stationary bike… I’m telling you, I’ve been out of my mind.

    But, alas, my toil is over. My new reports are done! And although these nice people in white jackets don’t seem reassured by that news, I can confidently say that my days of going to Wal-Mart wearing nothing but a bathrobe and muttering about a demanding pace are over… well, at least I’ll stop muttering about a demanding pace.

    Now, to celebrate, I’ve produced several full-card Pace Profile Reports for this weekend’s races and I encourage folks to give them a try. At some point (soon), I’ll produce some instructional material — including video (most webcams don’t have any sharp edges, so they should be allowed at the place I’m staying).

    In the meantime, I’ve added my analysis of some of Friday’s races.

    Enjoy! It's time for my meds.

    CHURCHILL DOWNS RACE 1: Tough call here, but I’m most impressed by the numbers of SMARTEN DESTINY, a seven-year-old gelding who recorded a race-best -12 ESR last time. The son of Smart Strike shortens up today and should improve in this his second start off an eight-month layoff.

    MY WAGER(S)
    * WIN on 7 at odds of 5-2 or greater.

    CHURCHILL DOWNS RACE 5: With the best overall speed figures and LSRs, ALL IN SLEW is clearly the one to beat, but keep an eye on GRIND (5-1 fair odds) as well.

    MY WAGER(S)
    * WIN On 4 at odds of 4-5 or greater.
    * EXACTA BOX 3 & 4.
    * PICK THREE 4 with 5 with 1,3,6,8 & 3,4 with 5 with 1,3,6,8 & 4 with 1,2,5 with 1,3,6,8.

    CHURCHILL DOWNS RACE 6: FRIENDLY DANCER earned a superior speed rating in his most recent try and also recorded the best early and late last-race pace figures in the field. Other top contenders include COUNTRY GIRL and INCLUDE THE WAHOOS.

    MY WAGER(S)
    * WIN on 5 at odds of 8-5 or greater.

    CHURCHILL DOWNS RACE 7: Both of the Michelle Lovell-trained horses, AT THE PULPIT and BIG LUCKY, intrigue me — especially the latter, who switches back to the grass after a game win over the Churchill Downs main. I’m also interested in RIPINANDATEARIN, who’s improved by leaps and bounds and could be on the engine versus these.

    MY WAGER(S)
    * WIN on 3 at odds of 6-1 or greater & 6 at odds of 7-2 or greater.
    * TRIFECTA 3,6 with 1,3,5,6,8 with 1,3,5,6,8.

    LOUISIANA DOWNS RACE 1: Big speed edge for SQUATER in here. Other top contenders include the first-time starter JUST NAUGHTY and HIGH WIRE DANCER.

    MY WAGER(S)
    * WIN on 2 at odds of 8-5 or greater.

    LOUISIANA DOWNS RACE 2: I really like SAPPHIRE BREEZE’s last turf try on May 24. In that race, the daughter of Eddington earned a 95 speed figure and -3 LSR. I think that effort makes here the one to beat in today’s wide-open affair.

    MY WAGER(S)
    * WIN on 7 at odds of 5-2 or greater.

    LOUISIANA DOWNS RACE 4: PURE DIVINITY has a huge early speed edge and looks best. I’m also keeping my eye on KEVIL KID, as trainer Morris Nicks is especially adept with horses trying turf for the first time.

    MY WAGER(S)
    * WIN on 3 at odds of 7-5 or greater.
    * EXACTA BOX 1 & 3.

    LOUISIANA DOWNS RACE 5: POWER SURGE recorded the best last-race speed figure, ESR and LSR in his most recent race; the one to beat.

    MY WAGER(S)
    * WIN on 4 at even odds (1-1) or greater.

    LOUISIANA DOWNS RACE 7: According to Brisnet, 36 percent of the races carded at one mile and 70 yards (or thereabouts) at Louisiana Downs are won in wire-to-wire fashion. This speaks volumes for PEACH BRANDY, who looks like the quickest of the quick in today’s event. I also like LEESTOWN MARTY, who earned a race-best -5 LSR last time, and AMY MY AMY, who could improve after a decent effort following a nine-month vacation.

    MY WAGER(S)
    * WIN on 3 at odds of 5-2 or greater & 2 at odds of 9-2 or greater.
    * EXACTA 2,3 with 2,3,7.

    LOUISIANA DOWNS RACE 8: SPOTSYLVANIA’s first — and only — start was a good one, earning a 98 speed figure and a zero (0) LSR. In a race with a vulnerable favorite (CAN’TOUCHTHISGAL) and a lot of ho-hum contenders, that’s good enough for me.

    MY WAGER(S)
    * WIN on 1.

    FREE Weekend Pace Profile Reports

    PACE PROFILE REPORTS

    Friday (6/21/13)

    Saturday (6/22/13)

    Sunday (6/23/13)

    WIN FACTOR REPORTS

    Friday (6/21/13)

    Saturday (6/22/13)

    Sunday (6/23/13)


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