Showing posts with label speed rations. Show all posts
Showing posts with label speed rations. Show all posts

  • FREE Pace Profile Reports

    POSTED Jun 27, 2014 By Derek Simon
    To celebrate the re-launch of my Web site (SimonSpeedRations.com) and some of the great races taking place this weekend — the Grade I Gold Cup at Santa Anita and a trio of Grade III events at Prairie Meadows just to name a few — I decided to provide some free Pace Profile Reports for Saturday (see links below)

    In addition, to help readers make better use of those Reports, I’m going to highlight one of their more prominent features: the rankings section.


    (Click on image to enlarge)

    The rankings section is where each horse’s speed figures, early speed rations (ESRs) and late speed rations (LSRs) are compared to others in the field, providing a quick and convenient way to assess its merits.

    Of course, this but begs the question: What do the rankings really mean?

    Sure, one can surmise that lower rankings — a series of 1’s, for example — are probably better than higher rankings, but what exactly does “better” mean? Can one make money simply by betting on the lowest-ranked, i.e. best, horse in every race?

    Sorry, but no.

    My database studies reveal that the sole lowest-ranked horse in a field (ties were ignored) does, in fact, win far more often than random chance would suggest (1.91 impact value), but, alas, such stalwart steeds are bet accordingly and produce a negative 17.12 percent return on investment (ROI).

    Still, there is something to be said for the rankings, as they clearly do point out the strongest — and weakest — contenders, as the data below confirms:

    (Click on image to enlarge)
    Note: To be considered, a horse had to be ranked in all three categories — speed, ESRs and LSRs. What's more, at least half the field needed to be ranked in all of those categories as well.

    Notice that horses with a rankings sum of less than 15 win approximately 2/3 of the races. Of course some of this is due to the effect of field size — it’s obviously easier to achieve better (lower) rankings in a six-horse field than it is in a 12-horse field — but the impact values (IV) and odds-based impact values (OBIV) speak for themselves.

    To show how this type of quick and painless analysis can pay dividends, consider the opening daily double at Santa Anita on June 26, 2014:

    1st Race

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    2nd Race

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    In the first race, the sum of rankings is as follows:
    1. 9 ½
    2. 15
    3. 5
    4. 11
    5. 5 ½
    6. 17

    Clearly, the top two contenders appear to be 3-TWO IS TO MANY, with 5 points and a dominant speed edge (noted by his “1+” ranking in that category), and 5-DR WILLIAMS, with 5 ½ points. 1-COOK INLET (9 ½ points) ranks a distant third.

    The result couldn’t have been more perfect.


    (Click on image to enlarge)

    On to the second race, where the sum of rankings looks like this:

    1. 5
    2. 7
    3. 13
    4. 11
    5. 9
    6. N/A

    Here, we have a clearer choice in 1-YARD LINE who, like Two Is to Many in the preceding race, also has 5 points and a dominant speed edge. 2-SING WITH BLING is next with 7 points, but his relatively low LSR ranking of 4 makes me think he could get chewed up and spit out in a pace battle with Yard Line. 5-MISSING GROOM checks in third with 9 points and also boasts the best last-race LSR (-8) in the field, which should come in handy if the top two go at it early.

    Again, the results were right in line with the rankings:


    (Click on image to enlarge)

    Anyway, I hope this helps a little. Obviously, it's not always this easy, but at least the rankings provide a starting point to one's handicapping journey.


    FREE Pace Profile Reports (6/28/14)

    Arlington Park
    Prairie Meadows
    Santa Anita Park

  • Derby Prep Preview

    POSTED Mar 7, 2014 By Derek Simon
    The past couple of weeks, I’ve been looking at the Kentucky Derby preps in light of who can progress on the Derby trail. This week, thanks in part to some key defections in the two preps being analyzed — the Grade II Tampa Bay Derby and Grade II San Felipe — I’ve decided to look at both contests primarily from a handicapping perspective.

    So, without further ado…   

    TAMPA BAY DERBY (G2)
    11th Tampa Bay Downs
    1 1/16 miles (dirt)

    1-RING WEEKEND (15/1)
    Broke his maiden at Gulfstream Park last time, earning a 91 Brisnet speed figure (BSF) and a -9 late speed ration (LSR). However, the most interesting thing about this guy is his trainer, H. Graham Motion. Motion is very capable with recent maiden graduates (19 percent wins since 2008) and essentially breaks even with longshots of 10-1 or greater (-0.5 percent ROI in 608 starts over the past seven years).

    The fact that Motion enlists the services of Tampa Bay’s perennial top jockey, Daniel Centeno, makes Ring Weekend that much more intriguing.
    FAIR ODDS: 15-1

    2-SURFING U S A (3/1)
    Finished second in an allowance race at GP in his latest after setting a moderate pace (-5 early speed ration). Todd Pletcher trainee shows improving early lick and could be sitting on a big effort — but 3/1 looks a little light.
    FAIR ODDS: 5-1

    3-MATADOR (8/1)
    His recent main-track LSRs are a concern, especially in light of the fact that he lost position down the stretch in the Stephen F. Davis on Feb. 1. He could certainly move forward off that effort, but I would insist on a decent price.
    FAIR ODDS: 15-1

    4-COLTIMUS PRIME (15/1)
    Woodbine shippers have not had overwhelming success at Tampa Bay Downs of late (-28.5 percent in 2013), but this Justin Nixon-trained colt may be the exception to the rule. To begin with, Nixon is 15-of-42 (36 percent) with horses moving from an all-weather surface (like Woodbine) to a dirt surface (like Tampa Bay Downs).

    Secondly, Coltimus Prime’s front-running style should be aided by the switch. Tampa Bay Downs has witnessed 26 percent wire-to-wire winners at today’s (main-track) distance of 1 1/16 miles this meet. Contrast that with Woodbine, which has seen just 18% wire-to-wire winners at the same distance over Polytrack.  
    FAIR ODDS: 12-1

    5-CONQUEST TITAN (7/2)
    His run in the Holy Bull was good, but not great, as evidenced by the 92 BSF and -14 LSR he earned for his runner-up performance. What’s more, he’s been wildly inconsistent. He could certainly win — his class figures are among the best in the field — but 7/2 is too low for me.
    FAIR ODDS: 5-1

    6-VINCEREMOS (4/1)
    After going way too fast early (-15 ESR), yet still breaking his maiden, at Gulfstream Park on Jan. 4, this son of Pioneerof the Nile showed grit and determination in winning the Grade III Stephen F. Davis by the hair of his chinny chin chin on Feb. 1. His LSRs are improving and trainer Todd Pletcher certainly knows how to win a Kentucky Derby prep (the Derby itself is another matter).
    FAIR ODDS: 7-2

    7-EAST HALL (10/1)
    I thought this dude was a live longshot in the Fountain of Youth and he didn’t disappoint, rounding out the superfecta at 72-1. That said, it’s hard to be impressed with a closer that earned a -15 LSR last time; I don’t like him, don’t hate him.
    FAIR ODDS: 20-1

    8-COUSIN STEPHEN (9/2)
    To me, the key to this colt’s performance is tactics and the switch to jockey Javier Castellano may be telling in this regard. Although the son of Proud Citizen set the pace and earned the best (lowest) last-race ESR in today’s field in the Stephen F. Davis, he’s better coming off the pace — which he demonstrated under Castellano… twice.

    The first time was on Nov. 7 when the Chad Brown trainee came from third to win drawing away by 7 ½ lengths at Aqueduct while earning a 92 BSF and 0 LSR.

    The second time was at Gulfstream Park on Jan. 3. Even though he faded to fifth after racing just off the leader at the first call that day, Cousin Stephen earned a 90 BSF and -2 LSR in a deceptively good effort.

    A return to those stalking tactics makes him a big threat in the Tampa Bay Derby.
    FAIR ODDS: 4-1

    9-HY KODIAK WARRIOR (10/1)
    Very interesting contender coming out of a ridiculously strong (7.0 Key Race Rating) allowance race at Gulfstream Park on Jan. 3. Though his pedigree might be questionable for the Kentucky Derby, today’s 1 1/16-mile event should pose no problems and his strong overall speed and pace figures make the son of Kodiak Kowboy a huge threat.
    FAIR ODDS: 6-1

    10-TUSCAN GETAWAY (20/1)
    A relatively slow need-the-lead type breaking from the far outside in a 10-horse field… not exactly the kind of horse I like to play — at any odds.
    FAIR ODDS: 50-1

    Click HERE for free Brisnet past performances for the Tampa Bay Derby

    SAN FELIPE STAKES (G2)
    5th Santa Anita Park
    1 1/16 miles (dirt)

    HOME RUN KITTEN
    One dirt race was not encouraging for son of turf star Kitten’s Joy. He’ll need to improve a bunch to be competitive against the likes of these.
    FAIR ODDS: 15-1

    UNSTOPPABLE COLBY
    Last-race pace figures were remarkably good (-9 ESR, -5 LSR). However, those numbers were earned in a nondescript maiden race (3.0 Key Race Rating) and trainer D. Wayne Lukas costs bettors nearly 50 cents on the dollar in such situations.
    FAIR ODDS: 12-1

    RPRETTYBOYFLOYD
    Awful overall LSRs for a horse trying to break its maiden in a Grade II race.
    FAIR ODDS: 15-1

    CALIFORNIA CHROME
    Son of Lucky Pulpit recorded a 94 BSF and -4 LSR in a resounding score in the California Cup Derby. And even though that was a restricted affair, it’s hard not be impressed by how Art Sherman’s protégé has been performing recently (two consecutive wins by a combined margin of 11 ¾ lengths).
    FAIR ODDS: 2-1

    SAWYER’S HILL
    Kristin Mulhall has a positive ROI with horses moving from a sprint to a route and the son of Spring at Last (24 percent route winners vs. 76 percent sprint winners) had a useful prep, albeit against maiden company.
    FAIR ODDS: 20-1

    KRISTO
    With Bayern out and an inside draw, this guy looks like he could set the pace today… and the numbers suggest he might be tough to catch. Last time, he earned a 95 BSF, -9 ESR and -11 LSR in a narrow loss to Midnight Hawk in the Grade III Sham. New jock Joel Rosario hopes he can reverse that decision.
    FAIR ODDS: 9-2

    SCHOOLOFHARDROCKS
    It’s the tale of two cities with this son of Rock Hard Ten. On the plus side, he appears very talented. In his first — and only — race, the David Hofmans trainee earned an 88 BSF and -4 LSR in breaking his maiden over the faux dirt at Del Mar. He’s also impeccably bred (his sire, Rock Hard Ten, gets 56 percent route winners and boasts a 7.4 AWD).

    On the negative side, Hofmans isn’t great with horses moving up in class — nor is he particularly adept with horses coming off a layoff.
    FAIR ODDS: 8-1

    MIDNIGHT HAWK
    Colt’s attempt to rate in the Robert B. Lewis on Feb. 8 was a mixed bag: although his BSF went from a 97 in the Sham to a 95 last time, his LSR actually improved from a -9 to a -6. Since then, the son of Midnight Lute has been working well for trainer Bob Baffert, as witnessed by a five-furlong drill timed in :58-4/5 on Feb. 26.

    He looks like a major player once again.
    FAIR ODDS: 5-2

    RECANTED
    Hard to endorse off his form in England and one race in the States… but all those races were on the green.
    FAIR ODDS: 20-1

    Click HERE for free Brisnet past performances for the San Felipe Stakes.

    Riposte Looks Like a Lock in the Hillsborough

    Click on image to enlarge
    I know, I know… calling a horse a “lock” on a public forum such as this inevitably leads to the defeat of said lock — typically in inglorious fashion. But I can’t help myself: I think 6-Riposte (2/1 on the morning line) is the proverbial free bingo square in the 9th race at Tampa Bay Downs, the Grade III Hillsborough Handicap, on Saturday.

    After competing against the best of the best on the grass in England and Ireland, Riposte made her US debut in the Grade III Suwannee River Stakes on Feb. 8. And despite a ridiculously slow pace that day (+12 ESR), Ripose came charging late, recording a 95 BSF and +9 LSR. If the 4-year-old daughter of Dansili performs anywhere near that good on Saturday, she will win.

    At least that’s my story… and I’m stickin’ to it.

    Simon Speed Rations Explained

    Early Speed Ration (ESR): A measurement of a horse’s early energy expenditure in relation to the total race requirements. The lower the figure, the greater the horse’s early exertion in that event. 

    -15= Demanding.
    -10= Brisk.
      -5= Moderate.
       0= Soft.

    Late Speed Ration (LSR): A measurement of a horse’s late energy expenditure in relation to the total race requirements. The higher the figure, the greater the horse’s late exertion in that event. Because late speed is calculated at a time when a horse is being asked for his/her maximum effort, LSRs can be a great indication of form as well. 

       0= Excellent.
      -5= Good.
    -10= Fair.
    -15= Poor.

    Pace Profile: A simple comparison between a horse’s LSR and the ESR of the race in which it was earned. Positive profiles are greatly desired.

    Note: ESRs and LSRs recorded on turf or all-weather surfaces tend to vary by 5-10 points from those garnered on dirt tracks.

  • Crazy Little Thing Called Love

    POSTED Jun 21, 2013 By Derek Simon
    Based on a Google search and absolutely no attempt on my part to verify the veracity of the information (I feel like a real journalist now), it was Confucius who said: “Choose a job you love, and you will never have to work a day in your life.”

    He also said that “it does not matter how slowly you go as long as you do not stop” — a statement that was taken quite literally by an old lady I was stuck behind merging onto the freeway the other day.

    I think you get my point: Confucius was an idiot.

    Hey, I love horse racing — the color, the excitement, the arguments on various social media outlets over which horse is ducking the competition; and I especially love handicapping — the numbers, the analysis, the arguments on various social media outlets over which horse should have won but didn’t because the jockey/trainer/horse is a moron… I love it all.

    But, there is a fine line between love and obsession — and an even finer line between obsession and bat-(expletive) crazy. Over the past couple of weeks, while working feverishly to complete my new Pace Profile Reports, I have crossed that line.

    I’m not talking about tentatively putting my toe across the line, like one testing the temperature of the pool, mind you. I’m talking about crossing the line like Amanda Bynes on Twitter.

    One afternoon at the grocery store, groggy from a night of studies, I attempted to compute the speed figure of the checkout lady, but she only stared at me blankly when I blurted out “13!” Another time, at the gym, I tried to figure out my late speed ration (LSR) on the stationary bike… I’m telling you, I’ve been out of my mind.

    But, alas, my toil is over. My new reports are done! And although these nice people in white jackets don’t seem reassured by that news, I can confidently say that my days of going to Wal-Mart wearing nothing but a bathrobe and muttering about a demanding pace are over… well, at least I’ll stop muttering about a demanding pace.

    Now, to celebrate, I’ve produced several full-card Pace Profile Reports for this weekend’s races and I encourage folks to give them a try. At some point (soon), I’ll produce some instructional material — including video (most webcams don’t have any sharp edges, so they should be allowed at the place I’m staying).

    In the meantime, I’ve added my analysis of some of Friday’s races.

    Enjoy! It's time for my meds.

    CHURCHILL DOWNS RACE 1: Tough call here, but I’m most impressed by the numbers of SMARTEN DESTINY, a seven-year-old gelding who recorded a race-best -12 ESR last time. The son of Smart Strike shortens up today and should improve in this his second start off an eight-month layoff.

    MY WAGER(S)
    * WIN on 7 at odds of 5-2 or greater.

    CHURCHILL DOWNS RACE 5: With the best overall speed figures and LSRs, ALL IN SLEW is clearly the one to beat, but keep an eye on GRIND (5-1 fair odds) as well.

    MY WAGER(S)
    * WIN On 4 at odds of 4-5 or greater.
    * EXACTA BOX 3 & 4.
    * PICK THREE 4 with 5 with 1,3,6,8 & 3,4 with 5 with 1,3,6,8 & 4 with 1,2,5 with 1,3,6,8.

    CHURCHILL DOWNS RACE 6: FRIENDLY DANCER earned a superior speed rating in his most recent try and also recorded the best early and late last-race pace figures in the field. Other top contenders include COUNTRY GIRL and INCLUDE THE WAHOOS.

    MY WAGER(S)
    * WIN on 5 at odds of 8-5 or greater.

    CHURCHILL DOWNS RACE 7: Both of the Michelle Lovell-trained horses, AT THE PULPIT and BIG LUCKY, intrigue me — especially the latter, who switches back to the grass after a game win over the Churchill Downs main. I’m also interested in RIPINANDATEARIN, who’s improved by leaps and bounds and could be on the engine versus these.

    MY WAGER(S)
    * WIN on 3 at odds of 6-1 or greater & 6 at odds of 7-2 or greater.
    * TRIFECTA 3,6 with 1,3,5,6,8 with 1,3,5,6,8.

    LOUISIANA DOWNS RACE 1: Big speed edge for SQUATER in here. Other top contenders include the first-time starter JUST NAUGHTY and HIGH WIRE DANCER.

    MY WAGER(S)
    * WIN on 2 at odds of 8-5 or greater.

    LOUISIANA DOWNS RACE 2: I really like SAPPHIRE BREEZE’s last turf try on May 24. In that race, the daughter of Eddington earned a 95 speed figure and -3 LSR. I think that effort makes here the one to beat in today’s wide-open affair.

    MY WAGER(S)
    * WIN on 7 at odds of 5-2 or greater.

    LOUISIANA DOWNS RACE 4: PURE DIVINITY has a huge early speed edge and looks best. I’m also keeping my eye on KEVIL KID, as trainer Morris Nicks is especially adept with horses trying turf for the first time.

    MY WAGER(S)
    * WIN on 3 at odds of 7-5 or greater.
    * EXACTA BOX 1 & 3.

    LOUISIANA DOWNS RACE 5: POWER SURGE recorded the best last-race speed figure, ESR and LSR in his most recent race; the one to beat.

    MY WAGER(S)
    * WIN on 4 at even odds (1-1) or greater.

    LOUISIANA DOWNS RACE 7: According to Brisnet, 36 percent of the races carded at one mile and 70 yards (or thereabouts) at Louisiana Downs are won in wire-to-wire fashion. This speaks volumes for PEACH BRANDY, who looks like the quickest of the quick in today’s event. I also like LEESTOWN MARTY, who earned a race-best -5 LSR last time, and AMY MY AMY, who could improve after a decent effort following a nine-month vacation.

    MY WAGER(S)
    * WIN on 3 at odds of 5-2 or greater & 2 at odds of 9-2 or greater.
    * EXACTA 2,3 with 2,3,7.

    LOUISIANA DOWNS RACE 8: SPOTSYLVANIA’s first — and only — start was a good one, earning a 98 speed figure and a zero (0) LSR. In a race with a vulnerable favorite (CAN’TOUCHTHISGAL) and a lot of ho-hum contenders, that’s good enough for me.

    MY WAGER(S)
    * WIN on 1.

    FREE Weekend Pace Profile Reports

    PACE PROFILE REPORTS

    Friday (6/21/13)

    Saturday (6/22/13)

    Sunday (6/23/13)

    WIN FACTOR REPORTS

    Friday (6/21/13)

    Saturday (6/22/13)

    Sunday (6/23/13)