Showing posts with label pace pars. Show all posts
Showing posts with label pace pars. Show all posts

  • The Worst ‘Overlay’ in History

    POSTED May 16, 2014 By Derek Simon
    Ever since California Chrome won the Kentucky Derby in a time rivalled by wooden horses on a merry-go-round, the dissenters have been out in force.

    Racing fans and pundits alike have been quick to label California Chrome as “overrated” or “the best of a bad lot.” Hence, it should come as no surprise that nine rivals have lined up to challenge the Derby champ in the Preakness Stakes, including seven who did not compete in Louisville.

    Now, I’m no chalk-eating weasel and I applaud those who perpetually look for legitimate knocks against short-priced favorites — in any race. But I must admit to rolling my eyes a bit when folks claim that they are “looking for value” by eschewing the Derby winner.

    Value is not determined solely by price.

    One makes a profit at the races by betting on propositions that offer odds over and above their “real,” or actual, odds — period. If a horse has a 90 percent chance of visiting the winner’s circle, a win bet at 2-5 odds is a great wager. Conversely, an exacta that stands to pay $100 for a buck is a horrible bet if the combination is likely to connect fewer times than Donald Sterling at an NBA meet-and-greet.

    The fact of the matter is the Derby runners (and California Chrome in particular) are holding all the aces when it comes to Saturday’s Preakness Stakes.

    In the past 50 years, horses that did not compete in the Run for the Roses are just 7-for-242 (2.9 percent) at Pimlico. Horses that did compete in the most exciting two minutes in sports have won 43 times (16.6 percent) during that span.

    And it gets even worse if the “new shooter” did not win its last race, as only Bee Bee Bee (1972) and Red Bullet (2000) managed to capture the Preakness after failing to get the job done in their previous start. Worse, just nine percent of these horses have even hit the board in Baltimore.


    (Click on image to enlarge)

    Which brings me to Social Inclusion, everybody’s upset special in this year’s Run for the Black-Eyed Susans.

    Simply put, I think Social Inclusion may be the worst “value” play in the history of organized horse racing.

    Look, I get it: next to California Chrome (the Derby notwithstanding), the son of Pioneerof the Nile has the best overall speed figures in the field. But to understand why I think Social Inclusion is such a terrible bet in the Preakness Stakes, we have to dig deeper:

    (Click on image to enlarge)

     This is a horse that has never been headed early and, according to his connections, he’ll be on the engine again in Maryland… yet he’s not very quick. His early speed rations (ESRs) rank fourth in the Preakness field — behind California Chrome, Pablo Del Monte and Ring Weekend. And the only time he met today’s late speed (LSR) par was when he set a dawdling pace (0 ESR) in an allowance win at the notoriously speed-favoring Gulfstream Park.


    2013 WIRE-TO-WIRE RATES (main track)

    Aqueduct (AQU): 26 percent at 1-1/8 miles (23 races).
    Gulfstream Park (GP): 27 percent at 1-1/16 miles (97 races).
    Pimlico (PIM): 20 percent in all routes (100 races).

    Then there’s that stat I shared before: Non-Derby starters who didn’t win their last start are just two-for-144 in the Preakness over the past 50 years. And 5-1 (according to the morning line) is value on Social Inclusion? Value? (Picture Jim Mora asking the question to get the full effect of what I’m saying here.)

    If you’re seeking “new shooters” that have a chance at a good price, look at Dynamic Impact, Bayern or — one I really like — Kid Cruz. And, of course, don’t forget about the other Derby starters: General A Rod and Ride On Curlin.

    History has shown that they’re the ones that typically offer the real value.

    My Plays:

    EXACTA BOX 1,2,3,5,7,10.
    TRIFECTA 3 with 2,7,10 with 1,2,5,7,10.

    To get my Win Factor and Pace Profile Reports for ALL of Saturday's races at Pimlico, click HERE.

  • Crazy Little Thing Called Love

    POSTED Jun 21, 2013 By Derek Simon
    Based on a Google search and absolutely no attempt on my part to verify the veracity of the information (I feel like a real journalist now), it was Confucius who said: “Choose a job you love, and you will never have to work a day in your life.”

    He also said that “it does not matter how slowly you go as long as you do not stop” — a statement that was taken quite literally by an old lady I was stuck behind merging onto the freeway the other day.

    I think you get my point: Confucius was an idiot.

    Hey, I love horse racing — the color, the excitement, the arguments on various social media outlets over which horse is ducking the competition; and I especially love handicapping — the numbers, the analysis, the arguments on various social media outlets over which horse should have won but didn’t because the jockey/trainer/horse is a moron… I love it all.

    But, there is a fine line between love and obsession — and an even finer line between obsession and bat-(expletive) crazy. Over the past couple of weeks, while working feverishly to complete my new Pace Profile Reports, I have crossed that line.

    I’m not talking about tentatively putting my toe across the line, like one testing the temperature of the pool, mind you. I’m talking about crossing the line like Amanda Bynes on Twitter.

    One afternoon at the grocery store, groggy from a night of studies, I attempted to compute the speed figure of the checkout lady, but she only stared at me blankly when I blurted out “13!” Another time, at the gym, I tried to figure out my late speed ration (LSR) on the stationary bike… I’m telling you, I’ve been out of my mind.

    But, alas, my toil is over. My new reports are done! And although these nice people in white jackets don’t seem reassured by that news, I can confidently say that my days of going to Wal-Mart wearing nothing but a bathrobe and muttering about a demanding pace are over… well, at least I’ll stop muttering about a demanding pace.

    Now, to celebrate, I’ve produced several full-card Pace Profile Reports for this weekend’s races and I encourage folks to give them a try. At some point (soon), I’ll produce some instructional material — including video (most webcams don’t have any sharp edges, so they should be allowed at the place I’m staying).

    In the meantime, I’ve added my analysis of some of Friday’s races.

    Enjoy! It's time for my meds.

    CHURCHILL DOWNS RACE 1: Tough call here, but I’m most impressed by the numbers of SMARTEN DESTINY, a seven-year-old gelding who recorded a race-best -12 ESR last time. The son of Smart Strike shortens up today and should improve in this his second start off an eight-month layoff.

    MY WAGER(S)
    * WIN on 7 at odds of 5-2 or greater.

    CHURCHILL DOWNS RACE 5: With the best overall speed figures and LSRs, ALL IN SLEW is clearly the one to beat, but keep an eye on GRIND (5-1 fair odds) as well.

    MY WAGER(S)
    * WIN On 4 at odds of 4-5 or greater.
    * EXACTA BOX 3 & 4.
    * PICK THREE 4 with 5 with 1,3,6,8 & 3,4 with 5 with 1,3,6,8 & 4 with 1,2,5 with 1,3,6,8.

    CHURCHILL DOWNS RACE 6: FRIENDLY DANCER earned a superior speed rating in his most recent try and also recorded the best early and late last-race pace figures in the field. Other top contenders include COUNTRY GIRL and INCLUDE THE WAHOOS.

    MY WAGER(S)
    * WIN on 5 at odds of 8-5 or greater.

    CHURCHILL DOWNS RACE 7: Both of the Michelle Lovell-trained horses, AT THE PULPIT and BIG LUCKY, intrigue me — especially the latter, who switches back to the grass after a game win over the Churchill Downs main. I’m also interested in RIPINANDATEARIN, who’s improved by leaps and bounds and could be on the engine versus these.

    MY WAGER(S)
    * WIN on 3 at odds of 6-1 or greater & 6 at odds of 7-2 or greater.
    * TRIFECTA 3,6 with 1,3,5,6,8 with 1,3,5,6,8.

    LOUISIANA DOWNS RACE 1: Big speed edge for SQUATER in here. Other top contenders include the first-time starter JUST NAUGHTY and HIGH WIRE DANCER.

    MY WAGER(S)
    * WIN on 2 at odds of 8-5 or greater.

    LOUISIANA DOWNS RACE 2: I really like SAPPHIRE BREEZE’s last turf try on May 24. In that race, the daughter of Eddington earned a 95 speed figure and -3 LSR. I think that effort makes here the one to beat in today’s wide-open affair.

    MY WAGER(S)
    * WIN on 7 at odds of 5-2 or greater.

    LOUISIANA DOWNS RACE 4: PURE DIVINITY has a huge early speed edge and looks best. I’m also keeping my eye on KEVIL KID, as trainer Morris Nicks is especially adept with horses trying turf for the first time.

    MY WAGER(S)
    * WIN on 3 at odds of 7-5 or greater.
    * EXACTA BOX 1 & 3.

    LOUISIANA DOWNS RACE 5: POWER SURGE recorded the best last-race speed figure, ESR and LSR in his most recent race; the one to beat.

    MY WAGER(S)
    * WIN on 4 at even odds (1-1) or greater.

    LOUISIANA DOWNS RACE 7: According to Brisnet, 36 percent of the races carded at one mile and 70 yards (or thereabouts) at Louisiana Downs are won in wire-to-wire fashion. This speaks volumes for PEACH BRANDY, who looks like the quickest of the quick in today’s event. I also like LEESTOWN MARTY, who earned a race-best -5 LSR last time, and AMY MY AMY, who could improve after a decent effort following a nine-month vacation.

    MY WAGER(S)
    * WIN on 3 at odds of 5-2 or greater & 2 at odds of 9-2 or greater.
    * EXACTA 2,3 with 2,3,7.

    LOUISIANA DOWNS RACE 8: SPOTSYLVANIA’s first — and only — start was a good one, earning a 98 speed figure and a zero (0) LSR. In a race with a vulnerable favorite (CAN’TOUCHTHISGAL) and a lot of ho-hum contenders, that’s good enough for me.

    MY WAGER(S)
    * WIN on 1.

    FREE Weekend Pace Profile Reports

    PACE PROFILE REPORTS

    Friday (6/21/13)

    Saturday (6/22/13)

    Sunday (6/23/13)

    WIN FACTOR REPORTS

    Friday (6/21/13)

    Saturday (6/22/13)

    Sunday (6/23/13)


  • Analyzing Arlington

    POSTED Aug 16, 2012 By Derek Simon
    With a great card on tap at Arlington Park on Saturday, including a trio of Grade I stakes topped by the Arlington Million, I figured my column this week should focus on handicapping.

    And focus it does.

    By clicking on the various links below you will receive Brisnet past performances that include my speed rations and computerized fair odds — absolutely free.

    But that’s not all. For a limited time only — and by “limited” I mean for as long as this column is posted, which could be years — you will also receive my Win Factor Report, some poignant analysis on the first leg of the Pick-6 (race 6) and pace pars guaranteed to make your handicapping more fun and add extra sizzle to your love life*.

     *These statements have not been evaluated by the FDA or, well, anyone other than me… and, frankly, even I don’t believe ‘em.

    Anyway, without further doo-doo, here are the promised links:

     AP Past Performances w/speed rations and fair odds (race 6)
    AP Past Performances w/speed rations and fair odds (race 7)
    AP Past Performances w/speed rations and fair odds (race 8)
    AP Past Performances w/speed rations and fair odds (race 9)
    AP Past Performances w/speed rations and fair odds (race 10)
    AP Past Performances w/speed rations and fair odds (race 11)
    AP Win Factor Report

    Arlington Park Pace Profile Race of the Day

    The sixth event at Arlington Park on Saturday, Aug. 18, is an intriguing affair on many levels. Carded for Illinois-breds which “have never won $8,800 once other than maiden; claiming; or starter or have never won two races” (don’t you just love reading race conditions, where the sentences run longer than the horses?), this race provides a perfect illustration of the power of pace handicapping.

    My Win Factor Report grades it as follows:

    (Click on image to enlarge)
    Let’s take a look at each of the top contenders:
    (Click on image to enlarge)

    The first thing that strikes me about Wild Command is that he’s a frontrunner with a closer’s pace figures. The -9 early speed ration (ESR) that he recorded last time was the fastest of the 10 such figures showing in his past performances and it resulted in a 16 ¼-length drubbing against similar foes. I don’t expect Saturday’s pace scenario to be much easier… or Wild Command’s performance to be much better.

    (Click on image to enlarge)
    He’s run some good races in the past, including an above-par performance despite racing five-wide on the turn on July 27. True, his last race was a clunker, but the son of Powerscourt (winner of the Arlington Million in 2005 after being disqualified from the top spot in 2004) returns on just eight days rest, indicating that he may be ready to return to his best form.

    (Click on image to enlarge)

    Love this guy’s last race, although the surface switch from Belmont’s dirt to Arlington’s Polytrack greatly troubles me. Adding to my concern is the fact that Transplendent has run just one good race. Can he win on Saturday? Absolutely. Is he a good bet at 5-2? Absolutely not.

    (Click on image to enlarge)

    The pace figures tell the story: Not only does Jaguar Ridge have the best overall ESRs in the field, he has the best LSRs (late speed rations) too. What’s more, his last dirt route try was sensational (relatively speaking), featuring a -14 ESR and a -8 LSR.

    He’s 5-1 on the morning line; 5-1 on my Win Factor Report… I make him 5-2 and the favorite to win the opening leg of the Pick-6.

    Pace Pars for Arlington Park

    Polytrack

    Sprints: -8 ESR, -11 LSR.
    Routes: -10 ESR, -7 LSR.

    Turf

    Sprints: -4 ESR, -1 LSR.
    Routes: -2 ESR, -1 LSR.

    (Click on image to enlarge)