TwinSpires Blog: 2014 Kentucky Derby Analysis

2014 Kentucky Derby Analysis

POSTED Apr 30, 2014 By Derek Simon

Name	Comments
California Chrome	Pros:	Top last-race BSF (4-25, +68% ROI since '92). Best overall LSRs. Won last race by 5+ lengths.
6-1 fair odds	Cons:	Typically doesn't gain ground on the turn; needs clean trip. Sire (Lucky Pulpit) has 6.40 AWD.
Vicar's In Trouble	Pros:	Big move on the turn in the Risen Star.
30-1 fair odds	Cons:	Weak final prep (2.5 Key Race Rating), big speed figure improvement last time makes him a bounce candidate, 5.00 Dosage Index and trainer Mike Maker has 0.36 IV in the Kentucky Derby.
Dance With Fate	Pros:	Solid juvenile base and good three-year-old form.
30-1 fair odds	Cons:	Sprint sire (6.33 AWD) and he lost position/ground from the first- to second-call last time (29-0-2-0 since 1992). Runs like a turf/AWS specialist.
Wicked Strong	Pros:	Improving LSRs, strong pedigree.
12-1 fair odds	Cons:	Brisnet speed figure in the Wood was 14 points superior to his next-best number.
Samraat	Pros:	Great juvenile form, very game and he's learned to rate.
10-1 fair odds	Cons:	No Brisnet speed figure progression this year.
Danza	Pros:	His performance in the Arkansas Derby was outstanding, featuring a negative ESR and a positive Pace Profile (10-of-98, +31.12% ROI since '92). He's also working well.
20-1 fair odds	Cons:	Most recent BSF 17 points superior to previous figure; greater than 15-1 in final prep (60-0-2-3 since '92); Todd Pletcher's Derby charges tend to be underlays.
Hoppertunity	Pros:	Gradual improvement and a trainer (Bob Baffert) with a stellar record in the Run for the Roses (1.44 IV).
12-1 fair odds	Cons:	"The Curse of Apollo" — son of Any Given Saturday didn't race as a two-year-old. Kind of a plodder, doesn't accelerate quickly.
Intense Holiday	Pros:	Shows quick acceleration and is typically in the mix. May have been compromised by being closer to the pace last time.
20-1 fair odds	Cons:	Louisiana Derby field of dubious quality (2.5 KRR). Has only two career wins — neither in Grade I company.
Wildcat Red	Pros:	Tough to get by in the stretch, with one win and two losses by a neck or less.
50-1 fair odds	Cons:	If it looks like a sprinter and runs like a sprinter, it's a sprinter. Wildcat Red has a 5.67 DI and unratable speed — not the ideal combination to get 10 furlongs on the first Saturday in May.
We Miss Artie	Pros:	He's gained significant position and ground on the turn in each of his last two starts and recorded a positive Pace Profile in the Spiral.
20-1 fair odds	Cons:	most recent BSF 13 points superior to previous figure; Todd Pletcher's Derby charges underperform their Derby odds 77% of the time (8-27, 0.80 IV).
Ride On Curlin	Pros:	Responded well after a rough trip last time and is reunited with Calvin Borel in Louisville.
25-1 fair odds	Cons:	Arkansas Derby had a 2.7 KRR and son of Curlin recorded his best BSF in a 5 1/2-furlong sprint at ELP.
Chitu	Pros:	Top trainer and a game effort in the Grade II Robert B. Lewis.
50-1 fair odds	Cons:	Like Wildcat Red, this guy looks like an unbridled sprinter. Hard to imagine him getting the kind of trip he desires.
Tapiture	Pros:	Excellent juvenile form and he showed the ability to rate in the grade II Rebel.
20-1 fair odds	Cons:	Last-race Form Rating less than 33% (61-0-2-1 since 1992) and trainer Steve Asmussen underperforms the tote board 83% of the time (0.64 IV) in America's greatest horse race.
General A Rod	Pros:	Very game, fast and possesses surprisingly good route breeding.
15-1 fair odds	Cons:	Trainer Mike Maker has been awful in the Derby and "General" has 8 Quirin speed points (Big Brown only winner since 2000).
Medal Count	Pros:	Trainer Dale Romans' charges have outrun their odds in three of his four Derby tries — and two of those three (Paddy O'Prado and Dullahan) looked an awful lot like this guy.
15-1 fair odds	Cons:	Like Dullahan, Medal Count does most of his running late, which might leave the son of Dynaformer with too much to do in the stretch.
Candy Boy	Pros:	Steady improvement, ability to accelerate quickly mid-race and likely value, thanks to a too-close-to-the-pace effort in the SA Derby that led to an 8 3/4-length defeat by California Chrome.
8-1 fair odds	Cons:	Tactics aside, Candy Boy's most recent effort was hardly encouraging.
Uncle Sigh	Pros:	Raced well prior to throwing a clunker in the Wood.
75-1 fair odds	Cons:	Poor form and the apparent inability to rate makes this guy a very dubious proposition.
Vinceremos	Pros:	Well-bred WinStar colt.
99-1 fair odds	Cons:	He was beaten 10+ lengths in his last race (39-0-1-0 over the past 22 years) and, even if one were to look past that debacle, the son of Pioneerof the Nile looks too slow.
Harry's Holiday	Pros:	Good effort in the Spiral.
99-1 fair odds	Cons:	Atrocious recent form and his best race came in an ungraded sprint stakes at Turfway Park.
Commanding Curve	Pros:	Consistent improvement and the ability to move on the turn make him a threat. Trainer Dallas Stewart (2.03 IV in the Derby) adds to the appeal.
25-1 fair odds	Cons:	Only one win — a maiden affair at Churchill Downs — to his credit and a +2 ESR last time (3-of-103, -56% ROI since 1992).