Showing posts with label TSOHS. Show all posts
Showing posts with label TSOHS. Show all posts
  • POSTED Feb 24, 2013 By Unknown

    2012 National Handicapping Championship winner and TwinSpires.com VIP Michael Beychok takes Las Vegas by storm (again!) this week as he competes in the Horse Player World Series at the Orleans Casino. Beychok, whose handicapping exploits also include being a part of the TwinSpires.com Players Pool team that scooped the Pick 6 on Dec. 8 at Aqueduct for $271,487, will be blogging about the experience for TwinSpires.com throughout the week.
    Postscript

     The final chapter to the story of my first trip and try at the Horse Player World Series has been written and the ending was not climatic. More of a crash and burn finish, but I’ll get to that later.

    First, I want to congratulate the winners, thank my tablemates, and send out personal congratulations to Eric Wing, the communications director and master of all things ceremonial for the NTRA. Eric finished in 7th place overall by stringing together three incredibly consistent days with masterful handicapping. Eric sat at the table next to me, and he is really missing his calling in life because no one could tell whether he just hit a capper horse or took a tough beat. A tremendous poker face topped only by his intellect, quick wit, and handicapping ability.

    As I’ve written and spoken many times before my strategy for these large field tournaments is to focus on a target number that should put me in contention to win and construct plays to get to that number. For this tournament my target number was reaching 3000 points on Saturday with 5-7plays left to go. Mission Accomplished as I had 3000 points with 7 plays left. I had surmised that this would put me less than 500 points or 50 bucks out of first place. Not a high mountain to climb.

    The reality was that when I had 3000 points with 7 bullets left I was 2000 points out of first place because the leader had run away and hid; I must admit, this took a lot of wind out of my sails and I became the horse player version of the Carnival Cruise Ship Triumph: dead in the water.

    I basically whiffed on all 7 remaining plays and ended up in 26th position overall, a top 3% placing and good for some cash, but it will take me a few days to figure out if I just calculated wrongly and this year’s tournament was an aberration or something else. I’m happy with my placing (well I will be happy in a few days but right now I’m a bit miffed). After all I did beat 750 other great handicappers but I’m left wondering if I was doomed to lose from the get go because of the miscalculation on the target number.

    In any case, these tournaments are a great experience, meeting new friends, renewing old friendships, and affirming my strong belief that playing the horses is something to wear as a badge of honor and not as a scarlet letter.

    I encourage everyone to give tournaments a try--whether online at Twinspires--or a local live tournament because these contests are a true, complete test of one’s handicapping ability.

    Michael Beychok is an award-winning political consultant from Baton Rouge, Louisiana. His horse racing site--beychokracing.com--offers picks, wagering strategies, and contest insights. Click here to see video and read a recap of Michael's 2012 NHC win.

  • Coulda Shoulda Woulda has no place in Winning Contest Psychology

    POSTED Feb 22, 2013 By Unknown
    2012 National Handicapping Championship winner and TwinSpires.com VIP Michael Beychok takes Las Vegas by storm (again!) this week as he competes in the Horse Player World Series at the Orleans Casino. Beychok, whose handicapping exploits also include being a part of the TwinSpires.com Players Pool team that scooped the Pick 6 on Dec. 8 at Aqueduct for $271,487, will be blogging about the experience for TwinSpires.com throughout the week.

    Moving on: from bad choices & into Day 2

    As I’ve written before, my personal opinion is that the major handicapping contests usually come down not to who is picking the most winners but who makes the best strategic decisions down the stretch of a contest. Sure, there are years where the winner just runs off by open lengths and wins for fun, but most contests come down to an end game of 10-20 folks who are running good and are in contention to win.

    But, before you get to the end game, you have to get through the toughest part of a tournament, and that is the beginning. Day 1 of the Horse Player World Series is like the opening half mile of the Kentucky Derby: you just want to get yourself in a comfortable position to make a move on days 2 & 3. That’s easier said than done of course.

    My Day 1 started out with me lamenting the decision to run 3 entries which means 45 bets a day and--do the math--135 bets over 3 days. Are you kidding me? Once I got my mind wrapped around the fact that I would be making a decision every 5 minutes or so I settled in and did respectable on 2 of the 3 tickets finishing with more than 1,100 "points" on one and more than 800 on another. The big bombs were the Collation ($60) in Race 7 at Santa Anita, which also included sweating an inquiry and a horse at Oaklawn that paid 10-1. Otherwise, it was a grind up with a few 4-1 shots and a bunch of places.

    But, the struggle for most horseplayers in these contests is to get past the “woulda coulda shoulda” moments that happen for any horseplayer, including at contests. Let’s face it, we are faced with making 15 bets a day and there are going to be times where you make the wrong decision. That’s part of contest handicapping. I had one today where I picked a horse at Gulfstream last night and intended on playing him, but in the end didn’t think the 4-1 was enough value. He drifted up to 5-1, and you can fill in the rest of the story. I also heard from people at my table about the 20-1 they were going to play but went with the 10-1 instead. When this happens--and it happens to everyone in a contest--it is a critical moment in the psychology of winning these contests.

    You must get beyond the bad beats and the bad choices and pretend it never happened or as I texted with James Dickson today--he's my partner on my entries--after we didn’t bet a 40-1 shot at Santa Anita that we both talked about this morning: look on the brightside, you are handicapping well. You must move forward and go on to the next race – otherwise you are doomed.

    Luckily for James and myself today, we got past the two horses we didn’t bet and found another long shot later on to move us up the leader board because we put the decision behind us and kept our focus on the races ahead of us. Neither of us spent more than 5 minutes thinking about what “coulda shoulda or woulda” been.

    Believe me, I’m as guilty as anyone of dredging up bad beat stories but in a contest format there is no future in reliving your mistakes.

    Michael Beychok is an award-winning political consultant from Baton Rouge, Louisiana. His horse racing site--beychokracing.com--offers picks, wagering strategies, and contest insights. Click here to see video and read a recap of Michael's 2012 NHC win.

  • Beychok sets sights on 2nd major

    POSTED Feb 20, 2013 By Unknown
    2012 National Handicapping Championship winner and TwinSpires.com VIP Michael Beychok takes Las Vegas by storm (again!) this week as he competes in the Horse Player World Series at the Orleans Casino. Beychok, whose handicapping exploits also include being a part of the TwinSpires.com Players Pool team that scooped the Pick 6 on Dec. 8 at Aqueduct for $271,487, will be blogging about the experience for TwinSpires.com throughout the week.

    PREPARATION

    The Horse Player World Series gets underway Thursday at the Orleans in Las Vegas and I’m entered thanks to winning an entry through the Twinspires.com Online Handicapping Series that also landed me in the NHC last year. The Horse Player World Series follows by a month or so the National Handicapping Championship and is one of the “majors” along with the NHC and the Breeders Cup Betting Challenge. A win in any of these is the epitome of horse race handicapping skill.

    This is my first go at the HPWS although I do remember playing a similar tournament 30 years ago in Vegas that may have had the same name, but it was held at the MGM.

    For the HPWS, players make 15 bets a day. This is the same number as the NHC, but the strategy is different because the NHC combines seven optional plays with eight mandatory races. The three-day HPWS totals 45 races all at the discretion as the player.

    The most often asked question I get is “how do you prepare?”

    First, my preparation is not markedly different from preparing for an all-mandatory or a mixed mandatory/optional format contest. I focus my attention in the weeks leading up to a contest on observation of trainers, track tendencies, and horse performance. I’m looking for the trainer who is on a “heater” or the track bias that can be used to identify live long shots or on the recent winner whose performance made me take notice.
     
    I create Horses to Watch list, a trainer to watch list, and a track bias to watch and make my selections based on those factors ... for the most part. I also keep a workouts list that has a select few horses that I’m waiting for to run--mostly first time starters.

    But, the second part of my preparation is just as important as was demonstrated in my win last year at the NHC and this year at the NHC where the last race decided the champion. I run through scenarios of the in the moment game strategy of “what if”. What if I’m xx points out of 1st in the last day? What if I’m leading with 5 races to go or 10 and have 3 plays to make. I try to play out as many scenarios in my mind as possible so I don’t end up making a crucial and ultimately costly selection mistake--as has happened in many contests. In the “end game” of one of these tournaments it is very easy to blow it on a bad decision even though you make a good selection.
     
    Of course, this year at the NHC--unlike last year's victory and the year before when I finished in the top 25 while having a realistic shot to win late in day 2--the scenario that played out for many of us hopelessly behind was to hunt for extra drink tickets.

    All of my preparation has been done as of Monday. I’m now just starting to go over the entries and check my aforementioned lists and hope some of my horses show up over the next few days. If they do, I’ll give them a good hard look. But, ultimately being successful or not will come down to whether or not I can pick enough winners over the 3-day contest to put myself in contention for the final races. I’ll make my decisions after settling in the Mardi Gras ballroom of the Orleans (that has to be a good omen for a guy from Louisiana right?) and watching a few races and hope that I can get on the heater that it takes to win one of the majors.

    I’ll post some thoughts throughout the tournament here, and you can follow me on Twitter @beychokracing where I’ll be making a few more observations and updates during the course of the day.  Wishing all the Twinspires qualifiers good luck.

    Michael Beychok is an award-winning political consultant from Baton Rouge, Louisiana. His horse racing site--beychokracing.com--offers picks, wagering strategies, and contest insights. Click here to see video and read a recap of Michael's 2012 NHC win.

  • Detroit Race Course started Michigan woman's path toward TwinSpires Online Handicapping Series win

    POSTED Nov 28, 2012 By Unknown
    Betty Christian's path toward winning the TwinSpires Online Handicapping Series and earning a seat at the National Handicapping Championship began at age 11 when her family moved from Tennessee to suburban Detroit.

    Following that 500-mile journey it took another15 years before Christian discovered horse racing, but one trip to Detroit Race Course with her brothers soon led to many others, including visits to Hazel and Raceway Parks. None of those three venues conduct Thoroughbred racing anymore.

    The wagering did not begin in earnest until she retired from General Motors following 33 years of service, but even at work she found a way to enjoy the races.

    "I used to take my breaks in the back because I would be able to hear the race call from DRC," Christian said referring to Detroit Race Course by its acronym. "I have three brothers, and we all like to play the horses."

    Christian, 74, qualified for the TSOHS final in July, but four months of anticipation turned to melancholy after just seven races when she had $6.20 following a winner in the opener but nothing since.

     The Golden Rod Stakes was the eighth race up, which meant the contest would be more than half over following this race, and Christian was ready to make her move by selecting 31-to-1 longshot Seaneen Girl. The Spring At Last filly went on to win by half a length from favored Gal About Town to give Christian $85.60 and a big boost in the standings.

     "I just wasn't doing too well, but once I hit that longshot things really seemed to start clicking," Christian said, adding that her strategy is to look for longshots competitive at the current class coupled with top jockeys. Miguel Mena, who ranked third by earnings and fourth by wins at the recently concluded Churchill meeting, was aboard Seaneen for new trainer Bernie Flint following a runner-up finish behind Spring Venture in the Grade 3 Mazarine at Woodbine.

     "Hitting that one in the Golden Rod gave me some confidence, and then I started making all the right moves," said Christian, who scored in four of the final five races, including the last three, to take over the lead.

     She used Tap To Magic, a dead heat winner of contest race 13 who paid more to place ($6.80) than to win because of the dead heat. She then landed on Dancing To The Stars, a 9.8-to-1 winner of contest race 14. Pussycat Lips' rally fell short to gate-to-wire winner Travesura in the final contest race, but her furious rally was good enough for second and generous place money of $10.20 thanks to 9-to-10 favorite Premier Steps finishing off the board.

     "Garrett Gomez is one of the jockeys I like to play, and he finished second in the last race," Christian said. "The favorite was overbet, so I was thinking a longshot in the top two would be enough for me, and it was. I was so excited when I saw my name on top at the end."

    For a complete list of Christian's picks, click here; for a list of all TSOHS final participants with their picks and ranking, click here.


     Christian is not the first person in her family to qualify for the NHC. One of her brother's sons has competed, and she said she'll be relying on his experience to help her prepare for a shot at the $750,000 top prize. Christian said that one of her biggest adjustments will be placing contest selections with a live teller after using TwinSpires.com for the past 5-6 years.

     "I do almost all of my playing on the internet now," Christian said. "I have to keep my mind busy in retirement, and this is something I enjoy."

    She will also have to get accustomed to selecting optional races since the TwinSpires Online Handicapping series uses a model of all mandatory races. However, Michael Beychok did not have a problem making that adjustment last year when finishing third in the 2011 TSOHS final and first in the NHC.

     Christian said her favorite horse is Zenyatta even though the certain future Racing Hall of Fame inductee cost her a contest win in the 2010 Breeders' Cup Classic--but not because Christian needed her to win but because she bet against her!

     "She was the even money favorite, and I thought I'd need a bigger price than that, so I picked against her," Christian said. "As it turns out, I only lost by $3."

     Zenyatta was the even money favorite and would have paid $4 to win. She fell a head short of Blame but still paid $3.60 to place, which would have given Christian the win. It's a lesson she plans to keep in mind at the NHC.

    "I'm going to keep playing every week to stay sharp," Christian said. "I like Fridays and Saturdays best, and that's the days of the [NHC]. Hopefully I'll be able to study the past performances a few days in advance. I just hope I can do the best I can."

     Christian has a son and two grandchildren, but the racing bug has been slower to infest her branch of the family tree.

    "I've brought my grandchildren before and told them grandma would split whatever she wins with them, but they weren't too interested," Christian said. "They liked when we won, but it can be a long time between races."

    That will not be an issue for Christian at the NHC, who--along with about 450 other players--will have to navigate 30 races over a two-day period, including the addition of a "best bet" from among the eight mandatory races each day. 

  • TwinSpires.com qualifier Beychok wins $1-million as NHC champion

    POSTED Jan 28, 2012 By Unknown
    Michael Beychok of Baton Rouge, Louisiana, parlayed a third-place finish in the TwinSpires.com Online Handicapping Championship into a $1-million first prize as the winner of the National Handicapping Championship January 27-28 at Treasure Island Casino in Las Vegas.

    Beychok, who uses TwinSpires.com for both his contest and horse-playing endeavors needed $11 to reach the top of the NHC standings on the last race of the two-day tournament, and he achieved that goal by a nose and $1 when Glorious Dancer rallied top nip Greeley’s Agenda to pay $8.20 to win and $3.80 to place.


    Beychok entered the final stages of the tournament within striking range of TwinSpires.com member Dave Flanzbaum, who led throughout most of day two but did not make up the necessary ground until the final race.

    “After the last mandatory race, I still had four options left to play,” Beychok said. “I started thinking about likely winners in the 2-to-1 and 5-to-2 range, which isn’t my normal strategy, but I knew I could win this thing.

    “When I went up to bet [Glorious Dancer] he was 7-to-2, but afterword he clicked down to 5-to-2. Everyone was excited when he won, but I knew I’d need 3-to-1. When they flashed those odds up there I was feeling pretty good.”


    In addition to being involved in Thoroughbred racing as a horseplayer via TwinSpires.com, Beychok is managing partner of That’s Me Stable, a racing partnership that campaigns horses in Louisiana.

    “I definitely plan to invest this back into racing,” Beychok said. “I own a few horses and would like to own a few more.”

    Before winning $1-million at the NHC, Beychok’s biggest score was a six-figure Pick 6 score in January 2011 at Santa Anita Park.

    Beychok's favorite team is the LSU Tigers, so here's a spirited version of "Calling Baton Rouge" in honor of his big win.

  • How much fun is this

    POSTED Jan 27, 2012 By Unknown
    This race at Gulfstream was one of seven mandatory races on Friday for NHC participants, so everyone in the room had some skin in this outcome.
    Currently Lori Hoskins, who finished second in the Twin Spires Online Handicapping Series final, is the NHC's leader. Good luck to her and all from the TwinSpires/Brisnet team!

  • Generations X, Y well represented at NHC

    POSTED Jan 26, 2012 By Unknown
    Between the Chinese New Year hangover and the calm before the Super Bowl storm, it's relatively quiet in Las Vegas this week.

    A din will surely rise, however, on Friday-Saturday at Treasure Island where the 13th annual National Handicapping Championship will award a $1-million first prize and handicapper of the year to one skillful bettor.

    I've never been to the NHC. Maybe one day I'll qualify, but for now I'm content to make sure those who have qualified have the information they need to put their best foot forward.

    The face time with customers has been great, though, and even more encouraging is that many of the players I'm meeting are of my generation (late 20s-early 40s).

    Much has been written about racing and its (lack of) appeal to a younger audience, and I just don't get it. Yeah, Tuesdays at Beulah Park in January aren't brimming with the glitterati of Central Ohio, and that's OK. Movie theaters on the same day in the same town generally aren't either, and that doesn't make the red carpet outside the Academy Awards any less glamorous.

    That handle is down is a concern, but interest in other ways hasn't decreased nearly as much as the MAINSTREAM MEDIA and other downers would have you believe.
    • *Santa Anita routinely draws large crowds for its marquee events--opening day, Big Cap, and Santa Anita Derby
    • *I've been going to Keeneland for what will be ten years this year, and the crowd is seemingly more vibrant with each meeting with the best crowds on Friday and Saturday.
    • *The Kentucky Derby is more popular than ever as a sporting, gambling, and entertainment spectacle.
    • *Del Mar is more popular than ever. If any track is a cultural phenomenon, it's Del Mar.
    • *Saratoga has become THE meeting for horseplayers to play from start to finish, and all trainers on East Coast point to this event.
    • *The Arlington Million is a class event at one of America's most underrated racing facilities. It routinely draws an international cast of competitors and a spirited crowd.
    • *The Breeders' Cup has become an institution in a relatively short time with gamblers chasing huge payoffs, a $10k buy-in tournament, and many championships on the line.
    If American Thoroughbred racing were ONLY these events, it would be more popular, but racing is not just a sport, it's a billion-dollar agri-biz and gambling enterprise that goes 366 days this year.

    The minor leagues in most sports exist because there is demand, but in some ways the so-called minor leagues in horse racing exist because there is NOT a demand for certain animals where there was before. The hot shot prospect in double-A baseball is trying to make the Major Leagues. The horses and people competing at double-A racing venues are doing so because that is where they are competitive.

    But I digress. Major league racing IS a big deal. The above events are profitable and everyone in racing wants to be a part of them, including generations X & Y despite the conventional wisdom to the contrary.

    The NHC is no exception. This is a big event with $1.5-million on the line, including $1-million to the winner. TwinSpires.com & Brisnet.com are both proud to be involved with 34 of our players looking to win Handicapper of the Year.

    Winning $1-million is cool, but so is racing.