TwinSpires.com Blog

Midway through winter no one sees an end, not even that groundhog in Pennsylvania. As we got to press one storm is sweeping through the Midwest and the East while another is poised to do its own sweeping en route to the Atlantic Ocean. It is becoming tiresome opening each of these blogs with notifications of track closings just after a weather report. But there is racing out there and we have it for you as the wicked season ensues. Good track, sloppy track or just frozen-to-the-bone track, we are on top of whatever racing is in store with wise betting moves.

In lieu of features, we once again choose specific overnight events with highly probable profit-producing choices. And, of course, there is our horses-to-watch (H2W) list. Please note that horses from our featured overnight events the week before appear on the H2W list as second-time members if they did not win when we highlighted their previous race.

This week’s overnight offerings:

Charlottetown
Feb. 7, Race 4

Caliban Hanover made up the most ground last week in the Open while the same two horses, Abundaspin and Zip The Lip, dueled for reign. The former won the battle and the latter was second. That means this week the third possible choice in this top group, who has beaten that duo before, will go off the best odds. Perhaps he commands the fractions or perhaps he takes better advantage of the two foes’ stressful battle that this week can wear them out entirely.

Charlottetown
Feb. 7, Race 8

Isleofpalms was poised to knock a similar group out last week but was hanged and left to dry. Before that she broke and three back she was out-gunned. This is a perfect spot for her to show the bit of class she has over this dull bunch (most appear to be one-dimensional and the morning-line (ML) favorite seems quite soft, having failed with a lesser trip than “Isle” last week in this company.

Meadows
Feb. 7, Race 7

In this 10-horse trot you are perfectly safe taking a shot with a clear outsider. Coming out of the 8 hole is just one reason the gelding Broadway Speed will go off double digits. Another is that most handicappers won’t give him enough credit for a style change in his last race that failed but nonetheless shot a flare up that should be a warning to the two horses in this field that beat him last race. Hanging while trying to get the lead and improving from the first to second call is enough for us to make him a contender. Consider the 10 horse in exotics if you want to try to cold-cock a big number.

Meadows
Feb. 7, Race 7

Here’s an odd condition that allows for some speculative handicapping, which may lead to a strong win price. With only six horses in the field, non of them ever experiencing the light of a winner’s circle flash, the crowd will take strongly to Dave Palone’s ride on Stirling Cyclone. But back class may not be the key here, at least it isn’t the factor we will rely upon. The five-year-old mare, NF Jessica, may be ignored enough to play at a price. Two back she almost walloped a notch higher group and she was 26-1. Her speed may hold firmly here and her horrible streak of 46 losses should come to an end.

H2W Legend

Review our choices and follow the wagering at the prescribed track. These are possible contenders we have judged from reviewing races. The horses’ names are listed beneath the name of the track after the date they will be racing. The race in which they are entered (R and race number) follows. If a + is in front of a horse’s name it means it is appearing on the list for the second (and last time) because it failed to win the first time it appeared. An “AE” signals the horse is entered but on the also-eligible list. Types of wagering on any of the H2W listed horses are based on your judgment. If you have any questions, email us at TwinSpires.

H2W

Buffalo
2/6/14; +Diditagain Hanover R2; Mr Terror R10; Schooner Or Later R11.

2/7/14; +Green Olives R2; +Elite R3; Ms Luck R6; +Ricky O Bay R6; +Upfrontoutthedoor R11; Windy City Ron R11; +Literate Hanover—AE—R11.

2/8/14; +Trojan Seelster R5; +Naked News R7.

Cal Expo
2/7/14, +Castle Oaks R4; Rite After Disbeer R6; +Yank My Missle R11
2/8/14, +Tour Guide R4; + Hot Cowboy R10;

Charlottetown
2/7/14, Otello R3; Leaveittome R5; River Paradise R6; Honor Roll R10

Dover
2/9/14, +Kenzie’s Beach Boy R3; Big Valley R6; +DVC Jazzy Jolt R10; +Stubbs Hanover R13; The Quiet Village R15

Flamboro
2/6/14, Nothin But Trouble R9
2/8/14, NJs Trick Pistol R7; +Sullys Guide R9; +Anahar Chase R9; +Stonebridge Adore R10; +Tiagra Seelster R10

Freehold
1/30/14, +No Tears Here
2/1/14, +Tulfra R2; +Cyclone Cully R11; +Youth Uprising R11

Meadows
2/7/14, +Four Starz Kyle R2; +Amazing Quest R4; +Forever Just R4; +Double Dribble R4; +SJ’s Hottie Won R5; +Eddie Sweat R6; +Dellie’s Jewel R9

Monticello
2/8/14, See You Smile R1; +Flower Girl Charis R2

Pompano
2/8/14; PC Moonshine R5; Avantage R6; Cheyenne Knight R8

Western Fair
2/7/14, +Arnies Kick Start R8

Yonkers
2/6/14; Eagle Artesian R6.
2/7/14; Mm’s Lucky Boy R2; Ideal In Vegas R6; Likeabatoutahell R8; Cash Poor R11; Handsoffmycupcake R12.
2/8/14; +Lightning Strike—AE—R1; Track Master D R5; +Dinner Guest R11.

Ray Cotolo contributed to this edition.      

This week, again in the throes of the Polar Vortex (unaware at press time if any of the tracks involved in our choices have cancelled), we cover the aptly titled Blizzard Series Final at Woodbine on Jan. 31. It’s an early season highlight as we roll into February. There is plenty of racing this weekend, however, weather permitting, and regardless of the sports’ world’s focus on the Super Bowl on Sunday.

Our overnight events, specially chosen races, present highly probable profit-producing fields and our horses-to-watch (H2W) list, both which have been productive as 2014 heads for its second month. Please note that horses from our featured overnight events the week before appear on the H2W list as second-time members if they did not win when we highlighted their previous race.

’Blizzard’ Conditions

It should come as no surprise that the second leg of this two-leg series for three- and four-year-old filly and mare pacers was raced in a sheet of falling snow so strong that it clouded the call of the races. Now the $34,000 final field leaves the gate at Woodbine on the last night of January, hopefully, as the weather dictates.

The short series has been packed with entries and the first or second favorites have won all but one edition, which was taken by a 4-1 shot. Looking for an outside contender here, however, appears simple. Not one of the choices in all the prelims repeated a victory, so it is possible that one that has been abandoned may be the key. We see that one as Zip Car.

In the second division of leg one Zip Car was sent off a little more than 3-2 and finished second as the public choice. It was a fertile trip as she left, dueled wide, got the top, extended her lead and lost by a mere neck to the second choice at the wire. The next week, in leg two, from post 9 she was sent off at 68-1. She hardly participated in that event and yet she shows up in the final, drawing the outside again. Whatever the strategy her trainer and driver decide to use, she is going to be a factor in this race and the kind of factor that can upset a field that comes to the final with no dominant femme.

Also taking a shot in the final after a few tough trips is Stoneridge Classy. She made a huge brush in the snow, gaining 5 lengths and unable to find the wood afterwards and was MIA with the rest of the group with the snow at the three-quarters. She should play a role in the exotics and is also in a good spot to upset. Together, these two, with forms of success, will storm the toteboard in the Blizzard final.

This week’s overnight offerings:

Northfield
Jan. 31, Race 4

Friskie Pants was active on our H2W list a few back and though he was competitive he didn’t win. However, he comes back to his most successful level of late and goes into the 4 hole while dropping down. He has the kind of speed that can make a front-pacing win possible and he has the ability to sweep and go the distance late. Here he may take the first option and if he makes it we should be looking at a great price.

Northfield
Jan. 31, Race 7

The first two morning-line (ML) choices, coming from posts 1 and 2, will find a challenge from outside-contender Wild Ride. His ML is 15-1 for reasons unexplained to us. This Ontario-bred has made a good home in Ohio and raced lightly towards the end of last year, not doing badly against better horses than this group. Given his probable odds, which may make him the third choice at best, he is the bet here to be on top or close enough to spook the first two choices (certainly the 1 horse), resulting in a firm win price for us.

Meadows
Jan. 31, Race 8

It’s time to play “Beat Palone” again at the Pittsburgh-area track and this is a great race to do it, considering he will be driving the top choice, the ML favorite from post 4, and sucking in the majority of win-mutuel dollars. You may be able to beat the popular driver’s mount with obvious-second-choice D Mac but a better price should be available for Double Dribble. This gelding will go under the betting radar and perform far better than the public allows its chances. You can toss out his sloppy mile dropping into this class and the race before that where he stepped up two levels after winning in the one below this. In other words, he belongs here after his win on Jan. 10 and is positioned to make Palone slayers happy with a great win price. A quick note: Schoolkids, once a viable sophomore in the top level and now eight, is looking for a level to suit him and is, oddly enough, trained by the other Palone, Mike. Don’t hesitate to put this guy in exotics if you are looking for a pumped up price because once he finds a spot he may find it in him to make a few more bucks for his connection before retiring (notice he is a winner of almost $1 million).

H2W Legend

Review our choices and follow the wagering at the prescribed track. These are possible contenders we have judged from reviewing races. The horses’ names are listed beneath the name of the track after the date they will be racing. The race in which they are entered (R and race number) follows. If a + is in front of a horse’s name it means it is appearing on the list for the second (and last time) because it failed to win the first time it appeared. An “AE” signals the horse is entered but on the also-eligible list. Types of wagering on any of the H2W listed horses are based on your judgment. If you have any questions, email us at TwinSpires.

H2W

Buffalo
1/31/14; Cole Diddy R1; Bagel Man R3; R A’s Shakenbake R5; Green Olives R7; Upfrontoutthedoor R7; Del Cielo R8; Diditagain Hanover R11
2/1/14; Trojan Seelster R1; Yorkster R2; Ricky O Bay R4; Sand Savage R7; Naked News R7; Sundowner Bob R8; Elite R9; Literate Hanover R10

Cal Expo
1/31/14, +Perfect Pitch R8; I’m An Athlete R10; Castle Oaks R13
2/1/14, +Hi Ho Hi Ho R6; Skyway King R10; +Melboy R12; +Big Guy Two Win R12; Hot Cowboy R13; Yank My Missle R14

Charlottetown
2/1/14, +Flag Of Honor R1; +Lexis Mandy R3; +Honeymoonisover R4; +Trustmeonemoretime R5; +Artners In Crime R6; +McMaverick R7; +Bakardi Arti R11;+Capitalism R12

Dover
2/3/14, Cowboy Artist R6

Flamboro
2/1/14, +Sullys Guide—AE—R6; Stonebridge Adore R7; Tigraseelster R7; Anahar Chase R9; NJs Trick Pistol R10

Freehold
1/30/14, +No Tears Here
2/1/14, +Tulfra R2; +Cyclone Cully R11; +Youth Uprising R11

Northfield
1/31/14, Ciro’s Pride R1; Tallerthanwoody R3; Genuine Star R8; Whitewater Delight R10; Oh Whata Guy R12

Meadows
1/31/14, Amazing Quest R4; SJ’s Hottie Won R5; Eddie Sweat R6; Forever Just R10; Dellie’s Jewel R13

Pompano
2/1/14; + Mc Kelvie R2; +Dreamnwillie R7

Western Fair
1/31/14, +Hazy Lady R2; Arnies Kick Start R4

Yonkers
1/31/14; All Star Dragon R4; The Northern Dude R11
2/1/14; Eighteen R2; Safe Harbor R7; Dinner Guest—AE—R7; Lightning Strike R12.

News reports about sagging jet streams and frigid weather ensue as we head for the penultimate weekend in January. Even if the climate was tepid, however, there would still be the seasonal lack of feature races in the standardbred community. However, from coast to coast raceways are brewing up a slew of overnight events to keep us harness bettors investing.

Once again, then, we concentrate on overnight events with a few specially chosen races (this week we venture to different tracks than the last few weeks because value is present throughout the pari-mutuel world) and our horses-to-watch (H2W) list, both which have been productive as 2014 heads for its second month.

This week’s overnight offerings:

Charlottetown
Jan. 25, Race 3

Honeymoonisover returns to this conditioned trot after two failed Open appearances. She has faired well at this level and once was the dead-on choice. The program choice, the mare leaving to her right, has won at this level but may be sorely over-bet, giving Honeymoonisover a clear shot at winning as an overlay. Incredible Her Bee has every right to race well from the inside and should play a big role in the exotics’ results.

Charlottetown
Jan. 25, Race 6

The crowd may be mistaken if they buy into the morning-line (ML) chances of Scotian Lass in this conditioned pace. Two excuses accompany her recent efforts at a higher level while three back and four back she was competitive after winning as a big choice while dropping into a lower class. She hovers at this range, though, and could very well present an outsider’s victory if she can out-step Hornswoggle, the second ML choice that drops after disappointing with big chances to win. Lexis Mandy could be the element that inflates exotic prices.

Dover
Jan. 26, Race 6

You can go out on a limb for this one with a possible longshot contender for a few reasons. First, the ML choices, all three, are not glowing prospects for a win. Next, they are spread out from the inside to the outside and third, they all look like they will battle for control of the pace. This leaves us with Kenzie’s Beach Boy. We have no doubt he will offer a price, considering his 59-1 failure after qualifying upon his arrival from Philadelphia. But while there, he raced some good miles, even if they ended poorly. He also steps down into this condition and has nothing to do but improve. These are the kinds of big-priced horses we adore because they are poised to wake up and when we get them in a situation where few to none address them as contenders, they are super scores.

Dover
Jan. 26, Race 11

Stubbs Hanover has a fine shot at the two horses inside of him that should get all the win money. He was in a crowd, only 4 lengths off of the winner in this company last week, leaving slowly from the outside. Before that he was on the move big time when he was bothered enough to break and lose all chance of competing past three-quarters. He won a $20G claimer as the 2-1 choice three back and that group was arguably as good, if not better, than this one. As a key overlay, also, a trifecta with SB Mikes Hot Beach and Polaris N could come back big balloons, as they used to say.


H2W Legend

Review our choices and follow the wagering at the prescribed track. These are possible contenders we have judged from reviewing races. The horses’ names are listed beneath the name of the track after the date they will be racing. The race in which they are entered (R and race number) follows. If a + is in front of a horse’s name it means it is appearing on the list for the second (and last time) because it failed to win the first time it appeared. An “AE” signals the horse is entered but on the also-eligible list. Types of wagering on any of the H2W listed horses are based on your judgment. If you have any questions, email us at TwinSpires.

H2W

Cal Expo
1/24/14, +Twentyone Guns R4; +Plum Crazy Baby R10; +Dragons Wall R11
1/25/14, Hi Ho Hi Ho R6; Tiger Bait R7; +All Is Lost R10; Melboy R11; Big Guy Two Win R11; +Energy Angle R13

Charlottetown
1/25/14, Trustmeonemoretime R1; Flag Of Honor R2; McMaverick R7; Artners In Crime R8; Capitalism R10; Bakardi Arti R13

Dover
1/26/14, DVC Jazzy Jolt R5; Arpeggio Hanover R7; Lord Terror R10; Devils Embrace N R12

Flamboro
1/26/14, +Modern Image R10

Frasier
1/24/14; +Runaway Disirae R4; +Pureform Sydthekid R4
1/26/14, +I Hear Voices R4; +Branding Party R5; +Mmmmmh R7; Jolt Of Whiskey R9; +One Last Shot R11;

Freehold
1/23/14, Mr Salming R4; +Hagi R4; +Ala Carte Bill R8; +Kaya’s Sweetheart R9
1/25/14, Tulfra R1; Travvers Hall R2; Cyclone Cully R2; +No Tears Here—AE—R3; +Major Bet R4; Youth Uprising R11

Northlands
1/24/14; +Too Young Man R7; Cinderella Smiles R8
1/26/14; +Smooth Criminal R10; +Man Alive R11; Little Bit Faster R11

 Meadows
1/24/14, +PL Dragon R3; +Bootswiththefur R4; +Mattachardle R6; +Trend Spotter R6; Hall Of Memories R12

Monticello
1/23/14, Flower Girl Charis R4
1/27/14, +Day To Fay R2; Eng-amer Davanti R2; +Lightning Madison R4

Pompano
1/18/14; +Ding Dong Boy R1; +Mai Tai Guy—AE—R1; +Just Fred R2; Flight Exec R3; +Oh My Joepa R4; Red Hot Yankee R5; Mc Kelvie R6; +Odd Man Out—AE—R10

Western Fair
1/24/14, +Flip Top R8 

Ray Cotolo contributed to this edition.