Showing posts with label kentucky oaks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label kentucky oaks. Show all posts

  • The Breeders' Cup Kentucky Oaks

    POSTED May 3, 2013 By Unknown
    This year's Kentucky Oaks has the feel of a Breeders' Cup race to me in that good horses will be good prices, and while it'd be a surprise if Rose To Gold, Princess of Sylmar, or Pure Fun won in that neither is one of the more likely winners, it'd hardly be a shock.

     Even Pure Fun, who has not impressed this year, has a shot in this race given the first-time Lasix, and at 30-to-1 I'm willing to throw her in the mix as a Grade 1 winner.

     The enigma of the race is Dreaming of Julia. If you believe every figure maker known to man that her Gulfstream Park Oaks was one of the fastest performances of the year by any three-year-old then a repeat of that race wins this easily. It's tough for horses to repeat big performances, though, and playing a horse to bounce and still win is rarely prudent as the favorite.

     But like the Breeders' Cup, you can make some money playing favorites if you have a strong case for longer-priced horses. My vertical strategy for the race is to wheel Rose To Gold, Princess of Sylmar, and Pure Fun on top with ALL underneath and then box those three with Dreaming of Julia. It's a $39 bet that gives me a shot at a big gizmo if longshots come 1-2, and I get a little extra juice of Dreaming of Julia crashes the party but I'm still right on the longshots.

     Beholder, Midnight Lucky, Close Hatches, and Unlimited Budget are all worthy adversaries, but I'd rather either take favored Dreaming of Julia or swing with for the fences with good horses who are going to be $50 winners if the job gets done.

     That's my Oaks thoughts, and below is the ABC grid for all of Oaks day

  • Kentucky Oaks morning line

    POSTED Apr 30, 2013 By Unknown
    Initial indignation gave way to curiosity as I tried to figure out who gets ignored if Dreaming of Julia is as low as 2-to-1.

    Based on her Gulfstream Park Oaks performance, it looked as if Dreaming Of Julia could be odds on, but there's just been too much chatter about how talented this group of fillies is, and so many of them have done so little wrong over the past month it's really tough for me to go any lower than 2-to-1 on Dreaming of Julia because Beholder, Close Hatches, Midnight Lucky, and Unlimited Budget will all undoubtedly be in that 5-to-1 range.

     So while 3-to-1 on Dreaming of Julia still feels way too high, I think 2-to-1 is reasonable with the West Coast fillies (Beholder & Midnight Lucky) at 9-to-2 and then other 100-point getters Close Hatches and Unlimited Budget at 6-to-1 each.

     That inflates Flashy Gray, Princess of Sylmar, and Rose To Gold pretty good, but I just think it's far more likely the money comes in on the favorites than these middling types, though each has a wild card variable vis a vis win betting with Flashy Gray's West Point connections, Princess of Sylmar being New York-based on trained by Todd Pletcher, and Rose To Gold having newly minted Hall of Fame jockey Calvin "boo boo" Borel in the irons.

     Silsita, Seaneen Girl, and Pure Fun are absolutely the bottom three when it comes to the wagering, but the Oaks is a big enough race that none will be underbet.

     So here's my stab on what the odds will look in the Kentucky Oaks:

     Dreaming of