Showing posts with label Dreaming of Julia. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Dreaming of Julia. Show all posts

  • Rocking Around the Clock on Saturday at TwinSpires.com

    POSTED Jun 21, 2013 By Unknown
    Near-around the clock action is nothing new on TwinSpires.com, but the class of the races offered on Saturday--with group and graded stakes action beginning with Royal Ascot in the morning and concluding with Churchill Downs "after dark"--is pretty special.

     My Royal Ascot selections have been abysmal this week (literally haven't picked a winner), so I won't effort one on Saturday. Instead, I suggest Brisnet.com's Daily Selections & Spotlight Selections products--both of which have provided top selections paying $20-plus such as Kiyoshi in the Albany Stakes.

     To keep things interested throughout the day stateside, TwinSpires.com offers a 1-million-point "Play All Day" promotion requiring a winning Pick 3 at Belmont Park, Hollywood Park, and Churchill Downs. Throw in stakes action at Colonial Downs, and it's certainly a busy day even with just the one Grade 1 race (the Mother Goose at Belmont Park).

     Speaking of that race, it probably offers the biggest free square of all in Dreaming of Julia, who I won't be trying to beat in this spot. Even her supposed "off" Kentucky Oaks defeats this field, and I'm more interested in her as a Pick 4 single than as a vulnerable favorite.

     Even though the Mother Goose is on the East Coast, the big-time domestic stakes action actually starts out West with the Hollywood Oaks, another race--like the Mother Goose--for three-year-old fillies that, to me, features a multi-race wager free square.

    Doinghardtimeagain won't be near the favorite Dreaming of Julia will be, but she's nearly as likely a winner. Instead of the 10.2-point Prime Power advantage Dreaming of Julia has over her foes, Doinghardtimeagain is up just 8.6 points on her closest pursuer, but given her speed and pace edge I'm inclined to single her with just as much confidence.

     So now that we've established who will win at short prices, who can we beat to find some value throughout the day? The two graded turf races at Colonial Downs--the All Along & Colonial Turf Cup--both offer some promise.

     In the Colonial Turf Cup, both Atigun and Air Support have the look of horses who will take too much money, which hopefully leaves Swift Warrior at his 7-to-2 morning line, which I see as a fair price. Two horses I'll be looking to spice things up with--both as a win threat in the multis and anywhere on the ticket in the verticals--are Roadhog and Two Notch Road. The former stretches back out on his third start off the layoff and has some races last year at longer distances that can win this. Two Notch Road intrigues as a speed threat at a nice price.

     In the All Along, Channel Lady is tough for me to like as such a clear favorite (7-to-5 morning line). Adjacent gets class tested here, but her four wins at four different major-circuit tracks give me the confidence that she can hang with these. Welcome Dance looks capable of being the speed and should be fresh off the layoff, but you never know what you're going to get with Julien Leparoux in that regard. Still, 8-to-1 compensates you for those questions.

     The stakes action concludes at Churchill Downs where two-year-old fillies go under lights (sort of, it is the second-longest day of the year), and only 40% of this field is capable of winning. Anyone but the 7, 8, 9, or 10 would shock me. That's not to say an upset can't happen, though, because 7, 8, & 10 are the clear favorites, and #9, Del Mar Holiday, has a shot at 8-to-1. Teardrop is the 2-to-1 morning line favorite, and it's tough to ignore the impressiveness of her debut given the early trouble and wide trip, but her stablemate Del Mar Holiday has run well despite drifting in both starts. I realize you don't want a horse stepping up to stakes who drifts, but the connections give me enough hope that it's a correctable issue, and two-to-three times the price on the other logical contenders has me hoping a straight run is good enough.

    The stakes action concludes with the Roxelana for distaff sprinters, and between Glamor Puss and Apropos, I prefer the former who looks to have a bit more punch late at a similar pace. Both are making their stakes debuts, so for a class edge you could do worse than Funnys Approval who deserves a look at a big price as a horse who could be the speed. In that regard, toss her last with gate trouble and maybe a run back to the Fritchie gets the job done here.

    So that's what's coming up this weekend. For a look back on last weekend, check out the video below from Triple Crown Insider, as it takes a look at the Breeders' Cup Classic division featuring big wins by Fort Larned and Paynter.

  • The Breeders' Cup Kentucky Oaks

    POSTED May 3, 2013 By Unknown
    This year's Kentucky Oaks has the feel of a Breeders' Cup race to me in that good horses will be good prices, and while it'd be a surprise if Rose To Gold, Princess of Sylmar, or Pure Fun won in that neither is one of the more likely winners, it'd hardly be a shock.

     Even Pure Fun, who has not impressed this year, has a shot in this race given the first-time Lasix, and at 30-to-1 I'm willing to throw her in the mix as a Grade 1 winner.

     The enigma of the race is Dreaming of Julia. If you believe every figure maker known to man that her Gulfstream Park Oaks was one of the fastest performances of the year by any three-year-old then a repeat of that race wins this easily. It's tough for horses to repeat big performances, though, and playing a horse to bounce and still win is rarely prudent as the favorite.

     But like the Breeders' Cup, you can make some money playing favorites if you have a strong case for longer-priced horses. My vertical strategy for the race is to wheel Rose To Gold, Princess of Sylmar, and Pure Fun on top with ALL underneath and then box those three with Dreaming of Julia. It's a $39 bet that gives me a shot at a big gizmo if longshots come 1-2, and I get a little extra juice of Dreaming of Julia crashes the party but I'm still right on the longshots.

     Beholder, Midnight Lucky, Close Hatches, and Unlimited Budget are all worthy adversaries, but I'd rather either take favored Dreaming of Julia or swing with for the fences with good horses who are going to be $50 winners if the job gets done.

     That's my Oaks thoughts, and below is the ABC grid for all of Oaks day

  • Kentucky Oaks morning line

    POSTED Apr 30, 2013 By Unknown
    Initial indignation gave way to curiosity as I tried to figure out who gets ignored if Dreaming of Julia is as low as 2-to-1.

    Based on her Gulfstream Park Oaks performance, it looked as if Dreaming Of Julia could be odds on, but there's just been too much chatter about how talented this group of fillies is, and so many of them have done so little wrong over the past month it's really tough for me to go any lower than 2-to-1 on Dreaming of Julia because Beholder, Close Hatches, Midnight Lucky, and Unlimited Budget will all undoubtedly be in that 5-to-1 range.

     So while 3-to-1 on Dreaming of Julia still feels way too high, I think 2-to-1 is reasonable with the West Coast fillies (Beholder & Midnight Lucky) at 9-to-2 and then other 100-point getters Close Hatches and Unlimited Budget at 6-to-1 each.

     That inflates Flashy Gray, Princess of Sylmar, and Rose To Gold pretty good, but I just think it's far more likely the money comes in on the favorites than these middling types, though each has a wild card variable vis a vis win betting with Flashy Gray's West Point connections, Princess of Sylmar being New York-based on trained by Todd Pletcher, and Rose To Gold having newly minted Hall of Fame jockey Calvin "boo boo" Borel in the irons.

     Silsita, Seaneen Girl, and Pure Fun are absolutely the bottom three when it comes to the wagering, but the Oaks is a big enough race that none will be underbet.

     So here's my stab on what the odds will look in the Kentucky Oaks:

     Dreaming of