Showing posts with label Pletcher. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Pletcher. Show all posts

  • Kentucky Oaks morning line

    POSTED Apr 30, 2013 By Unknown
    Initial indignation gave way to curiosity as I tried to figure out who gets ignored if Dreaming of Julia is as low as 2-to-1.

    Based on her Gulfstream Park Oaks performance, it looked as if Dreaming Of Julia could be odds on, but there's just been too much chatter about how talented this group of fillies is, and so many of them have done so little wrong over the past month it's really tough for me to go any lower than 2-to-1 on Dreaming of Julia because Beholder, Close Hatches, Midnight Lucky, and Unlimited Budget will all undoubtedly be in that 5-to-1 range.

     So while 3-to-1 on Dreaming of Julia still feels way too high, I think 2-to-1 is reasonable with the West Coast fillies (Beholder & Midnight Lucky) at 9-to-2 and then other 100-point getters Close Hatches and Unlimited Budget at 6-to-1 each.

     That inflates Flashy Gray, Princess of Sylmar, and Rose To Gold pretty good, but I just think it's far more likely the money comes in on the favorites than these middling types, though each has a wild card variable vis a vis win betting with Flashy Gray's West Point connections, Princess of Sylmar being New York-based on trained by Todd Pletcher, and Rose To Gold having newly minted Hall of Fame jockey Calvin "boo boo" Borel in the irons.

     Silsita, Seaneen Girl, and Pure Fun are absolutely the bottom three when it comes to the wagering, but the Oaks is a big enough race that none will be underbet.

     So here's my stab on what the odds will look in the Kentucky Oaks:

     Dreaming of

  • Weekend Handicapping: The ‘Value’ Approach

    POSTED Mar 29, 2013 By Derek Simon
    Although I’ve often extolled the virtues of value betting as it relates to one’s ROI, there is another feature of the “value approach” that is equally important: frankly, it makes handicapping easier. This is especially true on days like Saturday, when big races like the Florida Derby, Dubai World Cup and Louisiana Derby reduce many handicappers to dart-throwingmonkeys… or babbling baboons.

    By applying the concept of value to one’s selection process as well as to one’s betting, certain otherwise difficult decisions are practically made for the handicapper — without angst, teeth-grinding or (further) loss of hair.

    Let me explain.

    Suppose you think, as I do, that Revolutionary is the horse to beat in this weekend’s Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds. The question we must ask ourselves is this: If this race were run 100 times (to keep it simple) how many times would the son of War Pass win? Obviously, the answer likely lies somewhere between one and 99, as zero represents no chance at all (a scenario that Mine That Bird proved to be false in the 2009 Kentucky Derby) and 100 signifies a foregone conclusion (as Big Brown proved was nonsense in the Belmont Stakes a year earlier).

    Now I know that, for some of you, this is a hard notion to grasp. After all, the result is the result, right? Big Brown was not going to win the ’08 Belmont, just as Mine That Bird wasn’t going to lose the ’09 Derby — call it fate or destiny or pure chance, but what happened, happened.

    Well, I suppose if everything stayed exactly the same in each re-running of the race this might be true. But how many times — in the real world — does everything remain exactly the same? Maybe the rail doesn’t open for Mine That Bird like he’s Moses parting the Red Sea; perhaps Big Brown is sent to the lead and relaxes for Kent Desormeaux… who knows?

    Hence, the first step in the value wagering process is to assess a horse’s realistic chance of winning — and this is where the method lends itself nicely to handicapping. Personally, I think Revolutionary has about a 22-25 percent chance of capturing the Louisiana Derby this weekend; however, does anybody really think that the Todd Pletcher trainee will go to post at anything above 5-2, much less 3-1 or 7-2?

    I sure don’t.

    And given that, it is highly unlikely that I will be using the colt in any significant way on Saturday. Instead, I’ve got my eyes on a trio of horses that I think will show the opposite phenomenon — higher post-time odds than what I believe is fair. Before I reveal these super steeds, though, let’s take a look at the entire field, along with my fair odds for each entrant:

    1-HIP FOUR SIXTYNINE (40-1)
    2-PALACE MALICE (6-1)
    3-REVOLUTIONARY (7-2)
    4-GOLDEN SOUL (15-1)
    5-WHISKEY BRAVO (30-1)
    6-SUNBEAN (10-1)
    7-DEPARTING (6-1)
    8-CODE WEST (8-1)
    9-PROUD STRIKE (15-1)
    10-TITLETOWN FIVE (8-1)
    11-MYLUTE (15-1)
    12-BRAZILIAN COURT (40-1)
    13-GROUND TRANSPORT (20-1)
    14-NINA'S DRAGON (25-1)

    While I like both REVOLUTIONARY and PALACE MALICE, I suspect the value in this race lies elsewhere. Although DEPARTING beat next-to-nothing in his latest start at Sam Houston (2.0 Key Race Rating), I’ve been impressed with:

    A) The facile manner in which he’s won all three of his lifetime starts and the positive Pace Profiles he’s earned in each of those affairs.

    B) His two consecutive zero late speed rations (LSRs) coupled with his competitive Brisnet speed figure last time (96).

    I make DEPARTING 6-1 (he’s 8-1 on the morning line and will probably be higher come post time).

    I also think that GOLDEN SOUL and TITLETOWN FIVE could offer value. The latter appears to be the likely pacesetter on Saturday (in part because noted “gate rider” Jon Court is in the saddle) and, despite the fact that he will be making his route debut this weekend, a repeat of his dominant wire-to-wire maiden win at Churchill Downs last year makes him a prime contender.

    As for GOLDEN SOUL, well, he’s OK… and OK in a contentious field often means a higher-than-fair price.

    Now let’s look at the Florida Derby from Gulfstream Park:

    1-SHANGHAI BOBBY (3-1)
    2-PICK OF THE LITTER (15-1)
    3-ITSMYLUCKYDAY (3-1)
    4-PONTIFF (50-1)
    5-FRAC DADDY (8-1)
    6-ORB (8-1)
    7-INDY'S ILLUSION (12-1)
    8-MERIT MAN (15-1)
    9-ARE YOU KIDDING ME (20-1)
    10-NARVAEZ (15-1)

    Again, the fair odds help guide the final selection process. SHANGHAI BOBBY and ITSMYLUCKYDAY may be the horses to beat… but everybody and their brother knows it. To me, the value lies with FRAC DADDY, who grabbed a quarter and battled a throat ulcer while finishing a badly-beaten sixth behind “Bobby” and “Lucky” in the Holy Bull.

    Still, it might pay — literally — to remember that the son of Scat Daddy was highly regarded in that Grade III event and also looked like the real deal as a juvenile. Obviously, he’s got some obstacles to overcome on Saturday, but that’s why FRAC DADDY will probably be 8-1 or 10-1 on the tote board, while SHANGHAI BOBBY and ITSMYLUCKYDAY will be vying for favoritism.

    By the same token, I give INDY’S ILLUSION a puncher’s chance as well. I love the colt’s improving speed and pace figures and I suspect his odds will be through the roof.

    Lastly, I didn’t personally look at the races from Dubai, but I ran my Win Factor Report (computerized fair odds line) on some selected races below:

    (Click on image to enlarge)

    FREE Weekend Handicapping Reports

    03/30/13 Fair Grounds Brisnet Past Performances with Simon Speed Rations (selected races)
    03/30/13 Gulfstream Park Brisnet Past Performances with Simon Speed Rations (selected races)

  • Pletcher and the Derby: Better than most think

    POSTED Feb 26, 2013 By Unknown
    The only thing more fashionable than Todd Pletcher's charcoal gray suits on race day is bashing the five-time Eclipse Award-winning trainer's Kentucky Derby record.

    Admittedly, 1-for-31 isn't the most impressive stat, but it's also an unfair way to couch the opportunities he's had to win America's most famous race because he's only tried 12 times (but with 31 horses).

    Ignoring the improbable chance of a dead heat, the best Pletcher's record could be is 12-for-31 (38.7%), and the chances of that based on off odds of his horses is 8,659,613,123,123-to-1.

    But of course that's ridiculous. No one expects Pletcher to win the race every year, but even multiple wins is a tall order when you consider that no trainer in that period has won the Derby more than once, so in a stat for most Derby wins in the 21st century (whether you count 2000 or not), Pletcher is tied with 11 (or 12) others with one win each.

    And when talking about Pletcher's Derby record the binary nature of what he can accomplish each year is often overlooked in stats such as "He's a 25% trainer overall but has only won the Derby with one starter from 30." He can either win or lose. 

    Pletcher is 1-for-31 (3.2%) in an era when all starters are 13-for-246 (5.3%). That makes all starters not trained by Todd Pletcher 12-for-215 (5.6%). Sure, a trainer of his stature could be expected to perform a little better than all starters, but even winning the race a second time gets him to just 6.45%, and we're about to see winning it twice is no easy task let alone the charming third time that would make him a nearly 10% trainer in one of the most difficult races in the world to win.

    Pletcher saddled his first Kentucky Derby starter (actually first four Derby starters) in 2000. They had coupled entries for common ownership back then, so Impeachment and Trippi were half of a four-horse entry that also included High Yield and Commendable at 6.2-to-1. With High Yield unquestionably the strongest part of the entry, I estimated that Pletcher's half of the entry had about a 29-to-2 chance of winning. More Than Ready was 11.3-to-1 and Graeme Hall was 46.3-to-1. So the total chance that Pletcher would win in 2000 was 14.6 or about 5.85-to-1.

     I conducted this same exercise for the other 12 Derbys since Pletcher began participating. He did not saddle a horse in 2003, so the probability of a win there is 0. His "best chance" came in 2007 when his five entrants (Any Given Saturday, Circular Quay, Cowtown Cat, Sam P., and Scat Daddy) were given a 5-to-2 chance in the win pool by the wagering public. He didn't get it done that year but did three years later when Super Saver scored at 8-to-1 on the tote but was part of a quartet the wagering public made 6-to-1 to get Todd his first Derby.

    Given the chances Pletcher had of winning each Kentucky Derby, the most likely outcome is that he would have won the race...

    Once.

    That's right. For all the wailing and gnashing of teeth about how one of our best trainers "can't win the big one", the most likely result (37.4%) from running these 13 Kentucky Derbys is that he would have won the race one time , and it's only slightly more likely that he would have won it twice (25.7%) versus not at all (23.7%), and things get really difficult when you talk about 3 (8-to-1), 4 (38-to-1), or five or more wins (202-to-1).

    Which is not to say such incredible runs can't happen. In the past 25 years streaks include Baffert's three wins in six years, Lukas's four wins in 12 years, and Zito's two wins in four years, and each of those runs dwarf what Pletcher has accomplished.

    But no one is arguing for Pletcher being among the Derby greats. He's often painted as a goat, and while I'm sure many of his owners would prefer he had a little more success in the race, he's winning at about the rate you would expect.

  • Greatness at Gulfstream

    POSTED Feb 7, 2013 By Derek Simon
    Animal Kingdom (from businessinsider.com)
    On my podcast this week, I said I was going to write about a cool new system I devised to analyze races without immersing oneself in the past performances.

    I lied.

    I’m sorry, but I couldn’t help it. When I saw the races on tap at Gulfstream Park this weekend, I just had to weigh in with my opinion.

    Rest assured, I’ll talk about that cool system next week, but until then, check out my thoughts on two of the better races on Saturday’s card at Gulfstream Park:

    GULFSTREAM PARK TURF HANDICAP
    02/09/13 Gulfstream Park Race 8

    Personally, I think this race could be a lot tougher than it looks on paper. The problem is the main contenders — Point of Entry and Animal Kingdom — are come-from-behind runners and there’s not a whole lot of pace in the race. Hence, speed will probably not be the deciding factor — positioning will be.

    By default, Salto looks like the horse most likely to be on the engine. Now, the Todd Pletcher trainee does have talent — he was a close fourth to Group 2 winner Zinabaa in his native France and was runner-up in the Grade III Cliff Hanger Stakes at Monmouth Park — but he’s struggled against tougher foes. Worse, his late speed rations (LSRs) are just mediocre for this group.

    Among the likely second flight are the aforementioned Point of Entry and Unbridled Command. 

    Let’s start with the former. 

    Unlike Salto, Point of Entry has no class questions to answer. An Eclipse finalist for Top Male Turf Horse, the son of Dynaformer was a three-time Grade I winner in 2012 and consistently earned positive LSRs. There’s an issue, though: Point of Entry has done his best running at distances of 11 furlongs or greater — distances which emphasize stamina rather than a quick turn of foot. In fact, in races under 11 furlongs, the colt is just 1-for-8 (albeit the majority of those races were at the start of his career). 

    So, the question one must ask is: “Does one take a short price on a horse that may not be — and probably isn’t — competing at its best distance?”

    The workouts say yes; the (likely) price… not so much.

    Unbridled Command, on the other hand, has the talent and running style to upset this field — and the price figures to be right. But the 76-day layoff gives me pause. Still, the Thomas Bush (who’s very good off of layoffs, by the way) trainee is certainly one I would use if his odds are in the 7-2 range or greater come post time.

    As for Animal Kingdom, I think he’s probably going to be overbet and the pace scenario is against him. Nonetheless, he’s got a ton of talent and, despite having won the Kentucky Derby, he’s probably better on the lawn than the dirt.

    DONN HANDICAP
    02/09/13 Gulfstream Park Race 11

    This race pits some up-and-comers against more established performers. In the former group is trainer Todd Pletcher’s talented Graydar, Super Derby winner Bourbon Courage, last year’s Florida Derby champ Take Charge Indy and Csaba, winner of four straight, including the Grade III Hal’s Hope on Jan. 13.

    The latter group boasts of two-time Jockey Club Gold Cup victor Flat Out, Grade I winner (on turf) Ultimate Eagle and the eight-year-old Stephen Foster champion Pool Play.

    Below is a look at each entrant, along with my adjusted Win Factor Report odds:

    Bourbon Courage
    Fair Odds: 12-1

    I loved this guy in the Clark at Churchill Downs, but I’m less enthralled with him in this spot — for three reasons:

    1) He’s likely to be an underlay on Saturday based on his effort in the Clark.
    2) Although he’s improving, Bourbon Courage’s Brisnet speed figures are still a notch below those of the top contenders.
    3) Unlike Churchill Downs, Gulfstream Park is not particularly kind to steeds with late-running styles and strong LSRs. In fact, in 2012, horses running at GP that last competed at Churchill cost their backers over 65 cents on every dollar wagered.

    Flat Out
    Fair Odds: 10-1

    Son of Flatter definitely has the talent to win this, but I question whether he has the desire. Frankly, Flat Out has been tough for me to figure of late, which could be due to his advancing years… or my advancing years. 

    I loved his effort in the Whitney and the Jockey Club Gold Cup, but was less than thrilled — the supposed Santa Anita track bias notwithstanding — with his try in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, a race that saw him finish evenly at a short price for the second year in a row.

    Fast Falcon
    Fair Odds: 30-1

    The bottom line is that this Nick Zito trainee has won exactly one race in his life and it was against maidens. At least on paper, he’s just not good enough.

    Graydar
    Fair Odds: 8-1

    Like Fast Falcon, this guy hasn’t beaten much (in his latest, he defeated Tiz Yankee, who came back to annex a N2L allowance race), but he does show a lot of upside. If he can handle the class hike (a big “if”) and if the layoff hasn’t dulled him (smaller “if”), he’s got a shot.

    Ultimate Eagle
    Fair Odds: 7-2

    Even though this Michael Pender trainee was beaten in the San Pasqual and that race earned a dismal 2.4 Key Race Rating, I like his chances in this event and here’s why:

    1) He’s the speed of the speed and his jock, noted “gate rider” Martin Pedroza, should be able to exploit that fact over a track that generally favors early runners.
    2) In the San Pasqual, Ultimate Eagle recorded a very strong -5 LSR and fought back gamely after he was headed by the eventual race winner Coil, who, as a two-time Grade I winner, is not exactly a slouch.
    3) Though Pender doesn’t ship often — and he’s not very good at it when he does — Ultimate Eagle appears to be working extremely well. And, at five years of age, the son of Mizzen Mist could well be poised for a career year.

    Ducduc
    Fair Odds: 20-1

    Son of Langfuhr is now seven years old and has a single Grade III win on his resume. Not for me.

    Csaba
    Fair Odds: 6-1

    I’m impressed by this colt’s form, although his speed and particularly his pace figures give me pause. In his last three starts, beginning with his most recent (the Hal’s Hope), Csaba has earned LSRs of -13, -9 and -10.

    Take Charge Indy
    Fair Odds: 10-1

    It’s put up or shut up time for trainer Patrick Byrne’s stable star… and I suspect the response will be silence. Look, Take Charge Indy is clearly talented, but the fact is he has exactly one race on his resume that makes him a contender in this event — the Florida Derby.

    Remember that event?

    Let me refresh the memories of those who don’t. Against a field that included the two-year-old champion and eventual Belmont Stakes winner, Union Rags, Take Charge Indy rated on an extremely soft pace (-2 ESR) and cruised to a one-length victory.

    He followed that performance up with a dreadful showing in the Kentucky Derby, albeit with some excuses (what Derby loser doesn’t have a story to tell?), and a pair of minor awards in the Grade II Fayette and the Grade I Clark.

    Is he a contender in the Donn? Yes. Is he one of the favorites to win? Personally, I don’t think so. I’d need a price.

    Pool Play
    Fair Odds: 10-1

    I’m embarrassed to say I liked this guy in the BC Classic and he ran like something one would flush. Still, I’d be willing to give him another chance at a price — if only because I think he relishes the dirt and he proved last time that he can close over the speed-favoring GP surface.

    Citrus Kid
    Fair Odds: 15-1

    Not sure this one is fast enough, although I’d be intrigued if his price was in the 30-1 range… which it just might be.
    (Click on image to enlarge)
    Kentucky Derby Future Pool #1

    This weekend, one of my favorite bets is back. The Kentucky Derby Future Wager (Pool 1), which runs from Feb. 8-10, provides insightful gamblers with the opportunity to lock in some great prices on potential Derby starters.

    The pool consists of 24 wagering interests — 23 individual entrants and the mutuel field, which is comprised of all the remaining eligible three-year-olds. Because it is a pari-mutuel bet, the Derby Future Wager odds tend to be much fairer than those offered by most sportsbooks and casinos.

    Click HERE to get a free Brisnet past performances, along with my speed rations,for every entrant in the Pool.