Showing posts with label Eblouissante. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Eblouissante. Show all posts

  • Weekend Preview: Eblouissante Returns & the 14th Annual Brisnet.com Online Handicapping Challenge

    POSTED Dec 15, 2012 By Derek Simon
    Although this weekend’s races may not raise the pulse in the same way that the Kentucky Derby or Breeders’ Cup races do, there are some interesting events on tap.

    To begin with, Saturday marks the 14th Annual Brisnet.com Online Handicapping Challenge. Participants simply need to select one horse in each of the 10 contest races to earn the mythical proceeds of a $2 win and place bet (payoffs capped at $50 on win wagers, $20 on place bets). The player with the highest accumulated bankroll secures a spot in the 2013 Horse Player World Series at the Orleans Casino in Las Vegas as well as $1,000 in cash and a $300 Brisnet.com credit. There are additional prizes for the top 15 finishers as well.

    Saturday also features the return of Zenyatta’s half-sister, Eblouissante, in an allowance race at Hollywood Park and BC Juvenile runner-up He’s Had Enough in the CashCall Futurity.

    Here’s a sneak peek at some of the more interesting weekend races:

    SATURDAY (12/15)

    RACE 4 – HOLLYWOOD PARK
    There is no question that 3-Eblouissante’s debut effort was impressive. Not only did the three-year-old filly win by 4 ¼ lengths in that Nov. 16 maiden affair, she recorded a 92 Brisnet speed figure (today’s par is 91) and -5 late speed ration (LSR) in the process. Hence, I think she’s worth considering at even odds or better today and I would definitely play her at anything over her morning line price (6/5).

    However, there’s a rub: Simply put, this race has no pace — and at least one trainer seems to be aware of this fact. Julio Canani just claimed 4-Include the Cat and is putting blinkers on the five-year-old daughter of Include after a three-furlong drill timed in 36-4/5 seconds. Include the Cat recorded a -6 early speed ration (ESR) last time and only Glowing Spirit, who is dropping off a 10-furlong try on the grass, has ever gone faster early. If any horse beats the big favorite, I suspect Canani’s mare will be the one; I make her fair odds 7-2.

    RACE 9 – HOLLYWOOD PARK 
    The ninth race  at Hollywood Park, the CashCall Futurity, is just the opposite of the fourth event in that there is an abundance of early speed. 4-Carving, 5-Fury Kapcori, 8-Really Mr Greely, 9-Title Contender and 11-Oxbow have all shown the desire to leave the gate running. Thus, I think there might be value on 2-Den’s Legacy (9-2 fair odds), who has recorded some solid LSRs while coming from off the pace in both AWS and turf races.

    I wouldn’t necessarily dismiss the frontrunners either. Title Contender (8-1 fair odds) may be the quickest of the quick and Fury Kapcori (6-1 fair odds) is improving and doesn’t need the lead to win.

    RACE 2 – HAWTHORNE
    This is one of the Brisnet contest races and I think there are four horses with a decent shot of winning:

     4-Shelbys Star (7-2 fair odds) has got the lowest (fastest) overall ESRs, is improving, and could get brave on the lead.

    If she runs back to her debut, 5-Brick House Road (3-1 fair odds) will be long gone against the likes of these. Not only was the competition she faced arguably tougher, but the daughter of Road Ruler showed both early (-10 ESR) and late (-14 LSR) speed that day. The problem is “that day” was more than four months ago.

    9-Jewelia Anne (4-1 fair odds) has been facing considerably tougher but comes off a 53-length butt-kicking as the 9-5 favorite in her local bow.

    Although he showed nothing in his first — and only — lifetime start, I suspect 10-Doggone Wild (8-1 fair odds) is properly placed today and will give a good account of himself.

    RACE 4 – HAWTHORNE
    At 5-2 or greater, 1-Denham is my play. He likes to win (17-of-44 lifetime), is in good form and has a versatile running style.

    VULNERABLE FAVORITES
    DED1: 12-In Step Dancer (5/2 morning line)
    FG11: 12-Palmer Tour (7/2)
    HAW8: 2-Most Distinct (3/1)
    PEN9: 3-Juicy Lucy (7/2)
    TP8: 12-Yesterday (3/1)

    (Click on image to enlarge)

  • What’s In a Name?

    POSTED Nov 23, 2012 By Derek Simon
    Over the past week, my friend and colleague Ed DeRosa has written extensively about Eblouissante, the three-year-old half-sister to Zenyatta.

    (Click on image to enlarge
    At the heart of his writings was one simple question: Would Eblouissante offer value in her debut or would the Zenyatta connection assure that her price was lower than a pair of pants at a skate park?

    In the end, Ed concluded that 7-5 was more than fair on a filly that he felt had a 50-50 shot of visiting the winner’s circle and, judging by Eblouissante’s convincing 4 ½-length score, he was right. But it got me to thinking (something I like to do when I’m not keeping up with the Kardashians): Does it make economic sense to follow and play horses that even casual players are aware of and, therefore, more likely to bet? I decided to do a little — emphasis on little — study to find out.

    Below is a table that includes all the 2011 Eclipse Award-winning thoroughbreds (minus Black Jack Blues, who was voted best steeplechaser) along with their pari-mutuel performances thus far in 2012. I figured if any group of animals could be considered “name horses,” recent Eclipse Award winners fit the bill nicely.

    (Click on image to enlarge)
    The results, as one can see, are somewhat ambiguous. While last year’s champions have certainly outperformed the average thoroughbred running for a tag at Aqueduct on a Thursday afternoon, they have not exactly been cash cows.

    Havre de Grace, Hansen, My Miss Aurelia, Animal Kingdom, Royal Delta, Acclamation, Musical Romance and Amazombie have combined to win 17 of 35 starts this year. A $2 win bet on each of them in those 35 races would have resulted in a profit of — drumroll please — 50 cents.

    That’s right, two quarters... five dimes... 10 nickels... you get the picture.

    Mind you, this is better than one could expect betting a bunch of random no-names or even favorites, but it is hardly the stuff of legends, which brings us to Saturday’s Cigar Mile Handicap at Aqueduct.

    Among the entrants in that Grade I event is Groupie Doll; the same Groupie Doll that won the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint by 4 ½ lengths. The same Groupie Doll that is a lock to win the Eclipse Award for top female sprinter.


    (Click on image to enlarge)
    Now, contrary to my recent betting opinions of her, I like Groupie Doll. I think she’s a tough and talented filly and the deserving female sprint champion, but that doesn’t mean I think the daughter of Bowman’s Band is worthy of a bet at any price. Personally, I wouldn’t take less than 2-1 on trainer William Bradley’s stable star in the Cigar and, given her reputation, I think such a price is probably a pipe dream.

    I feel likewise about another “name horse.” Although Stay Thirsty has not won an Eclipse Award (and isn’t likely to), many fans are still aware of him thanks to his high-profile connections. Owned by Mike Repole and trained by Todd Pletcher, Stay Thirsty is coming off a game second in the Jockey Club Gold Cup on Sept. 29 and also has a win in the Grade I Travers on his resume.

    But Stay Thirsty is a plodder. Definitely not the kind of horse that I think will relish turning back to a mile at this stage of his career.

    The horse I’ll be taking a long look at in the Cigar Mile is Buffum, a four-year-old Bernardini colt owned by Godolphin Racing.


    (Click on image to enlarge)
    Buffum has run some of his best races at a flat mile and comes off an impressive wire-to-wire score in the Grade III Bold Ruler at seven furlongs. I think he could be on the engine again Saturday and he could prove tough to overhaul in a race without a lot of strong late runners.

    Plus, I’m guessing Buffum’s price will be a lot more generous than the price on either Groupie Doll or Stay Thirsty. And value, my friends, is the name of the the game     — the only name that counts.

     Additional Aqueduct Analysis (11/24/12)

     AQU6: To say that 1-UNLIMITED BUDGET’s debut was impressive is akin to calling the Rocky Mountains “hills” — a gross understatement. Not only did the daughter of Street Sense win by 9 ½ lengths on Nov. 9, she recorded a -14 early speed ration (ESR) in the process. Unlimited Budget ran so fast early that day that she left the 1-2 favorite Brilliant Jewel, who was coming off a second-place showing behind 2-EMOLLIENT (today’s morning-line favorite) in her lifetime bow, gasping for air even before the field turned for home. What’s more, Unlimited Budget earned a -7 late speed ration for her maiden score — just a couple ticks slower than Emollient recorded in her maiden victory.

    AQU7: In a race that could feature a fairly hot pace (most juvenile races do), I like the fact that 9-NORMANDY INVASION is a proven commodity from off the pace. I also love the -3 LSR the son of Tapit earned last time. 6-INDY’S ILLUSION sports improving pace figures and should get first run on the early leaders; big shot at a big price. The 1/1A Repole Stable entry of MICROMANAGE and OVERANALYZE can also be used at the right price (5/2 or greater). I’m taking a stand against 4-DELHOMME if he’s a short price (less than 4-1) because I think that last race looks better on paper than it did on the racetrack.

    AQU8: Will try to beat the “name horses” 7-GROUPIE DOLL and 1-STAY THIRSTY with 3-BUFFUM and 5-HYMN BOOK (see analysis above).

    AQU9: I’m afraid the morning line tells the story. 2-DANCE CARD has the most talent, but I hate the layoff, while both 6-BOOK REVIEW and 7-MY WANDY’S GIRL look like viable alternatives.

  • Did Eblouissante offer value in her debut?

    POSTED Nov 20, 2012 By Unknown
    At the racetrack, value and not always beauty is in the eye of the beholder. Or, as my college newspaper editor, Robert Levine, used to say, "One man's gold is another's gonorrhea."

    Benoit & Associates photo
    Indeed, trying to scratch that itch with a "sure thing" at 7-to-5 can burn you, but passing on easy winners at what appear to be overlaid odds after the fact smarts, too, and the debut of Zenyatta's half sister, Eblouissante, on Friday at Hollywood Park offered the perfect backdrop of this handicapping conundrum.

    The base question is, what is the lowest odds at which a horse can truly offer value? Did Frankel offer value when 2-to-5 in the 2011 Queen Anne Stakes? I thought so and made a prime win bet on him. Would I have played at 1-to-5, though? Definitely not, and I know plenty of people who wouldn't have bet Spectacular Bid at 2-to-5 to win the 1980 Woodward.

     Eblouissante was far more generous in her debut, paying off at 7-to-5 in a race I thought she was even money to win while prepared to take 6-to-5. Of course, that "generous" modifier is my opinion, since plenty of pre- & post-race chatter involved calling her overbet.

    When I first looked at the race my impression was that trainer John Shirreffs would have her in peak form for an unraced late-season three-year-old filly. The BRIS Speed Rating par for the race was 89, a number only one other starter had come close to. Given Eblouissante's family's history and the string of workouts I was confident she could run atleast par.

     The final piece of the puzzle, though, was reading Andy Harrington's workout notes in his National Turf Clocker Report, which is available daily ($9.95) via Brisnet.com for Southern California tracks.
     
    EBLOUISSANTE Nov 11 HOL 5 :59.1H M FT    B+      
    Jet black powerfully built sort tracked a barnmate was asked some on the turn drawing away late while on own in 35.2, 59.3. Clearly has run, clearly fit (has turned in 45 drills since last year in preparation for debut). Think she can run as far as they card 'em. Was in blinkers; Blanc up. Like her sis she appears to have a mellow disposition.---Grade: B+
    EBLOUISSANTE Nov 5 HOL 6 1:15.1H M FT    B+      
    In blinkers; grand looker made a good run at barnmate Odeon and galloped out quite well while not asked in 38.1, 103.1, 115.0 out around the bend in 127.4. Not overly handy but can run forever.---Grade: B+
    EBLOUISSANTE Oct 19 HOL 6 1:14H M FT    B+      
    Corey up; noticeably caught hold midstretch running away from barnmate Cotton Belle finishing 3 clear in 37.3, 113.4. Much substance here.---Grade: B+
    As you can read, Andy liked what he saw, and these notes gave me the confidence to bet my opinion that Shirreffs had this one ready to roll and that a par effort for the class was likely. As it turned out, she bettered par by a few points with a 93 BRIS Speed Rating when winning easily by 4 1/2 lengths.


    The 7-to-5 price seemed more than fair both before and after the race, but some disagreed even after this tour de force, citing that her price was suppressed because of her family. I don't disagree that Eblouissante would have been a higher price if she weren't Zenyatta's half sister and/or hadn't been written about for the past year and a half, but I do disagree that the extra money because of that automatically makes her an underlay.

    Assessing her chances to win the race at 50% had nothing to do with knowing that there'd be a lot more casual money bet on her. Obviously I knew that was in play and a big reason I was so surprised at the 4-to-1 morning line, but just because she may have been 2-to-1 without the Zenyatta connection doesn't mean she didn't offer value at 7-to-5 if I thought she'd win 50% of the time.

    All this discussion is not to say that every favorite who wins by daylight is a good bet, but knowing Eblouissante would take casual money didn't automatically make her a bad bet either.

  • Can Eblouissante save racing? What about my bankroll?

    POSTED Nov 12, 2012 By Unknown
    Racing may not need stars or a Triple Crown winner, but it definitely needs Eblouissante to win race 4on Friday at Hollywood Park (free PPs).

    OK, that's a bit dramatic, but considering she is Zenyatta's half sister (Brisnet.com pedigree) and already has her own Facebook, Tumblr, and Youtube video (see below for more), it's not a stretch to imagine this one being able to move the dial with a 20-length win and world record performance on Friday.

    And as a fan of horse racing I'd like to see her do that, but as a horse player, I have to wonder if there is an opportunity to make some money here if she loses.

    It's a similar lament to betting on the Belmont Stakes with a Triple Crown on the line when fans "cheer for history but bet against it."

    It happens in maiden races, too, though. When Barbaro's full brother Nicanor debuted on January 31, 2009, at Gulfstream Park, he was the 13-to-5 second choice in a field of 12. Who knows what his price would have been without the Barbaro connection [same breeding (Dynaformer-La Ville Rouge), owner-breeder (Roy & Gretchen Jackson), trainer (Michael Matz), and jockey (Edgar Prado)], but I'm comfortable saying he'd have been more than 13-to-5 considering the race included future graded stakes winner Warrior's Reward (1st at 30.5-to-1), Allrightsreserved (2nd), favored Dubinsky (4th), Il Postino (6th), and Big Flirt (8th).

     Given that Eblouissante has had 45 published workouts the past 17 months, including 8 in the past two months, one handicapping report that will be indispensable in determining how to play the race is Andy Harrington's National Turf Clocker Report.

    If Harrington has liked what he's seen in the morning ("B+" grades or better) then she is certainly the most likely winner of this group considering only one horse has run better than par (89) and all of the synthetic figures are in the lower 80s.

    Even if she is the most likely winner, though, it's difficult to envision her offering any value in the win pool, but that's where multi-race wagering can help. I'm not sure how many Zenyatta fans (the kind of fans that would bet her half sister blindly) bet, but my sense is that the ones that do stick to the following wagers: Win, WPS, show, exacta, double, and trifecta with a heavy lean toward the straight wagers.

    Put another way, I don't think they dabble in Pick 3s, Pick 4s, and Pick 5s--bets where the wise guys & gals are more likely to hang out. If I truly like Eblouissante then I'd look to single her in the multi-race wagers. She's the fourth leg of the $.50 Pick 5, third leg of the $.50 Pick 4, and is involved in three different Pick 3s. I'd then be open to hedging against her in the win pool if other key contenders floated up because of sentimental money on the Zenyatta kin.

    If I don't like Eblouissante then I'd probably eschew the multi-race wagers altogether and still focus on the win pool because I'd anticipate her take money. The double pool in races 3-4 also merits attention A) for potential overlays, and B) to gauge how much money Eblouissante might take in race 4.

    And maybe it'll turn out that there's no opportunity, and that's OK, too. The presence of a superstar's half sister is reason enough to watch, and the conversation that is sure to happen on Twitter will make it all the more fun.