Showing posts with label value. Show all posts
Showing posts with label value. Show all posts

  • Cotolo’s Harness Review, News And Notes

    POSTED Dec 15, 2013 By Frank Cotolo

    There was a storm and it traveled through the East to cancel racing in the north on Dec. 14 and Dec. 15. However, Northlands Park weathered the Alberta chills to race its two biggest soph-pacing events on Dec. 14, after being postponed the week before due to extreme weather (is there any other kind that would cancel outdoor activities in the Great White Northwest?). For TwinSpires harness followers, it was well worth the wait.

    The Western Canada Pacing Derby on Dec. 14 was a strike-it-rich event for our fans as we handed you the winner, Bettor In The Bank. The colt paid $37.80, $10 and $13.30 (ok). That same night we gave you two horses in Northfield Park’s Cleveland Classic. One of them, Word Power, turned out to be the 6-5 favorite, making our other choice the bet at 3-1. That was Apprentice Hanover, paying $8, $3.60 and $2.80.

    Let’s go back to Canada. On Dec. 13 at Northlands held its Northlands Filly Pace for soph fillies and our blog gave you the third-place finisher. Cenalta Fireworks was quite a longshot, paying $11.80 to show. Followers of Ray Cotolo, who contributes to the Thursday blog weekly, broadcasted the winner of the filly pace on his North American Harness Update show (Fridays at 9 p.m. with Garnet Barnsdale and Ray). That would not be such a great feat were it not for the fact that his pick was Contesta Hanover, who paid $61.40, $19.30 and $8.30. 

    It was another good week for the horses-to-watch (H2W) list, which is still growing as our feature races for review wind down to naught this season. In Thursday’s blog we are pumping the list up and replacing the recently closed raceways with others available to TwinSpires players. We will also feature a few special paragraphs on some overnights that we feel may deserve more attention that the others at selected tracks.

    So don’t let the lack of daylight hours and year-ending chores and celebrations stop you from hitting the computer or mobile device. We are as dedicated to finding great value wagers during this darker time of the season than every other season. Remember the only place on the Internet where harness racing is a priority for bettors is here at TwinSpires.


    H2W RESULTS
    The H2W results list across-the-board prices.

    King Cat Anvil N, $18.80, $10.40, $5, Saratoga
    Rio Sweet, $9.80, $4.60, $3.60, Meadows
    Willie Boots, $7, $4.60, $4, Freehold
    Redestrian, $6, $2.80, $2.10, Scarborough
    Bold Fresh, $3.40, $2.20, $2.10, Scarborough
    Galactic Star, $2.80, $2.20, $2.10, Maywood

    Seconds

    Foof, $11.40, $3.60
    Phoenician Gal, $4.40, $3.40, Northlands
    Bo Tox Hanover, $3.40, $2.40, Meadows
     
    Thirds

    Princess Mccardle, $2.60, Freehold


    News And Notes
    Woodbine Entertainment Group will have special post times over this holiday season. With the thoroughbred meet concluded, the oval will conduct harness racing on Thursdays, Fridays and Saturdays until Dec. 28. Post time remains 7:25 p.m. Woodbine will also hold a special Boxing Day matinee card (Thursday, Dec. 26) with post time scheduled for 1 p.m. The Valedictory and Niagara Series finals will headline the afternoon program. In the New Year, racing will switch to a schedule that offers racing on Mondays, Fridays and Saturdays. There will be no live racing from Dec. 29 to Jan. 5.

    Yonkers Raceway has announced its 2014 live harness schedule. The track’s 236-night season begins Monday, Jan. 6. The usual five-nights-per-week harness program schedule remains in effect, with first post every Monday, Tuesday, Thursday, Friday and Saturday at 7:10 p.m. Included in the calendar are 15 Tuesday matinees (Sept. 2 to Dec. 9), with first post at 12 p.m. These are not doubleheader Tuesdays, but single programs. The 2013 season ends Dec. 21.

    Classified racing is coming to Freehold Raceway in 2014. The Standardbred Breeders & Owners Association of New Jersey (SBOANJ) and Freehold Raceway have announced the change. Designating the conditions of races by ABC classification will begin in the 2014 meet that starts on Jan. 2.  “Our faith in the switch to classified racing at the Meadowlands yielded fuller fields, more competitive racing and increases in wagering,” said SBOANJ’s chief, Tom Luchento. Director of Racine Karen Fagliarone says she is I excited for the change that she feels will make racing better for patrons. The ABC system returned to the sport after a long hiatus when the new Meadowlands opened. It classifies horses based on their performance and no specific conditions. The jury is still out on its positive affect on the fan base. Fagliarone  will continue to write claiming races, maiden and non-winners of three pari-mutuel races for the younger horses. Freehold’s current racing season ends Saturday, Dec. 14, 2013. When the track opens for its 2014 winter meet on Jan. 2 it will continue with a Thursday, Friday and Saturday schedule through May 17. Additionally, the track is open for live racing on two holiday Mondayss—Jan. 20 and Feb. 17. Post time is 12:30 p.m.

    Extraordinary Extras

    Indulge in many standardbred topics at my Hoof Beats blog titled Vast Performances.

    Ray Cotolo contributed to this blog.

    Cartoons by Thom Pye

  • Did Eblouissante offer value in her debut?

    POSTED Nov 20, 2012 By Unknown
    At the racetrack, value and not always beauty is in the eye of the beholder. Or, as my college newspaper editor, Robert Levine, used to say, "One man's gold is another's gonorrhea."

    Benoit & Associates photo
    Indeed, trying to scratch that itch with a "sure thing" at 7-to-5 can burn you, but passing on easy winners at what appear to be overlaid odds after the fact smarts, too, and the debut of Zenyatta's half sister, Eblouissante, on Friday at Hollywood Park offered the perfect backdrop of this handicapping conundrum.

    The base question is, what is the lowest odds at which a horse can truly offer value? Did Frankel offer value when 2-to-5 in the 2011 Queen Anne Stakes? I thought so and made a prime win bet on him. Would I have played at 1-to-5, though? Definitely not, and I know plenty of people who wouldn't have bet Spectacular Bid at 2-to-5 to win the 1980 Woodward.

     Eblouissante was far more generous in her debut, paying off at 7-to-5 in a race I thought she was even money to win while prepared to take 6-to-5. Of course, that "generous" modifier is my opinion, since plenty of pre- & post-race chatter involved calling her overbet.

    When I first looked at the race my impression was that trainer John Shirreffs would have her in peak form for an unraced late-season three-year-old filly. The BRIS Speed Rating par for the race was 89, a number only one other starter had come close to. Given Eblouissante's family's history and the string of workouts I was confident she could run atleast par.

     The final piece of the puzzle, though, was reading Andy Harrington's workout notes in his National Turf Clocker Report, which is available daily ($9.95) via Brisnet.com for Southern California tracks.
     
    EBLOUISSANTE Nov 11 HOL 5 :59.1H M FT    B+      
    Jet black powerfully built sort tracked a barnmate was asked some on the turn drawing away late while on own in 35.2, 59.3. Clearly has run, clearly fit (has turned in 45 drills since last year in preparation for debut). Think she can run as far as they card 'em. Was in blinkers; Blanc up. Like her sis she appears to have a mellow disposition.---Grade: B+
    EBLOUISSANTE Nov 5 HOL 6 1:15.1H M FT    B+      
    In blinkers; grand looker made a good run at barnmate Odeon and galloped out quite well while not asked in 38.1, 103.1, 115.0 out around the bend in 127.4. Not overly handy but can run forever.---Grade: B+
    EBLOUISSANTE Oct 19 HOL 6 1:14H M FT    B+      
    Corey up; noticeably caught hold midstretch running away from barnmate Cotton Belle finishing 3 clear in 37.3, 113.4. Much substance here.---Grade: B+
    As you can read, Andy liked what he saw, and these notes gave me the confidence to bet my opinion that Shirreffs had this one ready to roll and that a par effort for the class was likely. As it turned out, she bettered par by a few points with a 93 BRIS Speed Rating when winning easily by 4 1/2 lengths.


    The 7-to-5 price seemed more than fair both before and after the race, but some disagreed even after this tour de force, citing that her price was suppressed because of her family. I don't disagree that Eblouissante would have been a higher price if she weren't Zenyatta's half sister and/or hadn't been written about for the past year and a half, but I do disagree that the extra money because of that automatically makes her an underlay.

    Assessing her chances to win the race at 50% had nothing to do with knowing that there'd be a lot more casual money bet on her. Obviously I knew that was in play and a big reason I was so surprised at the 4-to-1 morning line, but just because she may have been 2-to-1 without the Zenyatta connection doesn't mean she didn't offer value at 7-to-5 if I thought she'd win 50% of the time.

    All this discussion is not to say that every favorite who wins by daylight is a good bet, but knowing Eblouissante would take casual money didn't automatically make her a bad bet either.

  • Double trouble and other BC-inspired multi-race wagering observations

    POSTED Nov 6, 2012 By Unknown
    I already asked after last year's Breeders' Cup, "Is the daily double a bad bet?"
    Philosophically the answer is the same, "it depends," but when five of 13 double combinations come back less than the corresponding win parlay it's fair to ask whether targeting the rolling doubles is a good use of a player's bankroll.

     Friday was particularly frustrating for doubles players, as four of the five combos returned less than the parlay. Then on Saturday the marquee duo of Wise Dan and Fort Larned produced a $58.24 win parlay but only a $55.80 double.

     The Pick 3s on Friday did not fare much better with the first three Breeders' Cup-only sequences involving the first five Breeders' Cup races each paying less than the parlay. Beholder capped a $1,469.20 payout that was a staggering 33.5% less than the parlay involving Calidoscopio at 17.2-to-1 and Flotilla at 11.4-to-1.

     These results speak to my thought that --especially on big days--the cardinal ranking of a horse's odds is just as important as his win odds when assessing multi-race value. Calidoscopio at 17-to-1 and Flotilla at 11-to-1 look great on paper, but the former's win came in a race where many people were inclined to go deep, and the latter was one many would use with the favorite. Both led to a short field of Juvenile Fillies that was won by one of the few horses in the race who could win (even if she wasn't the favorite).

     The best value throughout Breeders' Cup appeared to come in races involving the Turf where Little Mike was probably longer than his 17.3-to-1 win odds in multi-race exotics. He capped a Pick 3 that paid nearly twice the parlay and kicked off a Pick 4 that paid 44.1% more than the parlay even though the late Pick 3 and aforementioned late double both paid less than the parlay.
    The Pick 4 remains best among Breeders' Cup wagering opportunities. Going back to 2006, it has never paid less than the corresponding parlay, and even Friday's sequence involving the Juvenile Fillies Turf, Juvenile Fillies, Filly & Mare Turf, and Ladies' Classic overcame short prices elsewhere to post a 5.8% premium over the parlay.

     Total handle on the two-day extravaganza dropped 9.5%, and while Hurricane Sandy and its aftermath were a big part of that, the wagering menu couldn't have helped with two Pick 4s on Friday covering five races, and of the only two Pick 4s on Saturday's 12-race card, just the late sequence used only Breeders' Cup races.

     A) The early portion of Friday's ten-race card absolutely needed a Pick 4. Yes, there was the Pick 5 on races 1-5, but that only included two Breeders' Cup races. A "normal" SoCal card has the Player's Pick 5 then an early Pick 4 on races 2-5. I don't know why that couldn't have worked this weekend.

     B) Saturday's program easily could have supported three, if not four, Pick 4 sequences. Having only two-all-BC Pick 4s on a card with nine Breeders' Cup races had to have hurt handle. The Juvenile was not part of a Pick 4, and that is definitely among the more popular races. Starting one with the Dirt Mile would have gotten a lot of action, and based on the win parlay of the four races involved would have paid at least $2,500 for $.50.

     Wagering on horse racing is pari-mutuel in nature, and understanding these types of payouts is crucial to long-term success. It's just a shame we have to wait six months to put them in practice!

  • Systematic Profits

    POSTED Oct 4, 2012 By Derek Simon
    Since I’ve been talking so much about handicapping angles on my podcast recently, I thought now might be a good time to show readers how to construct and use one.

    To start with, let’s define what an angle is. A handicapping angle is simply a methodical means of analysis and selection; it is not a shortcut to riches and glory.

    Contrary to popular opinion, handicapping angles needn’t be one dimensional either. It is entirely possible — and, frankly, desirable — for angles to possess comparative features, as well as the ability to make relative assessments based on the competition a horse is facing.

    What makes angles desirable is that they bring structure to one’s play and they can be tested. This latter point is important because it allows players to form expectations and, as a result, develop optimal betting techniques.

    So, without further ado, let’s take a look at an easy-to-apply angle that I came up for users of the Brisnet past performances:

    (Click on image to enlarge)
    1) Consider only the horse(s) with the highest Brisnet Power Rating.

    NOTE: This instantly puts one on a “live” horse based on traditional handicapping criteria — speed, pace, class, etc.

    2) Play qualifying horses provided their final odds are greater than or equal to their morning line odds multiplied by two. For example, if Horse A has the highest Brisnet Power Rating in the field and is 5-2 on the morning line, we would bet him/her at odds of 5-1 or greater.

    NOTE: The purpose of this rule is to isolate overlays. And, as demonstrated in my last column “Thinking Small,” the morning line can be helpful in this endeavor.

    Of course, the real fun of coming up with a handicapping angle is applying it. Hence, I’ve scoured a bunch of race cards on Friday and Saturday and have come up with the following potential plays:

    (Click on image to enlarge)
    For those who like to do their own handicapping — with a little help — I also produced my Win Factor Report (computerized fair odds line) for the races at Hawthorne and Keeneland on Friday and Saturday:

    FRIDAY

    SATURDAY

  • Weekend Value

    POSTED Sep 22, 2012 By Derek Simon
    I talk a lot about value betting, so, in this week’s column, I thought I would graphically illustrate what I’ve been jabbering about.

    I’m going to do that by taking a peek at some of the marquee — and a few not-so-marquee — races on Saturday and offer my betting suggestions and fair odds. Let’s start with the ninth race at Belmont Park, the Grade II Gallant Bloom Handicap:
    (Click on image to enlarge)

    Many will view this event as a virtual match race between the millionaires in the field, Turbulent Descent and Musical Romance… I’m not so sure.

    (Click on image to enlarge)

    To begin with, I’m not convinced that Musical Romance is the same horse she was last year. Notice that in her last five races of 2011, the daughter of Concorde’s Tune recorded exactly one “poor” late speed ration (figure of -15 or less, highlighted in red in the past performances above). Yet, this year, poor LSRs have become the norm — regardless of track or surface.

    The 11-1 fair odds assigned by my Win Factor Report (a computerized fair odds line) might be a little high; on the other hand, I think the 5-2 morning line is definitely too low.

    As for Turbulent Descent, she loves to win, loves the distance and is entering this race with — horns and trumpets, please — some conditioning, which was not the case the last time she faced Musical Romance in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint.

    (Click on image to enlarge)

     On the negative side, Turbulent Descent simply isn’t very fast and her LSRs are just mediocre. I believe she’s the on to beat, but I’d try to get value by betting the exacta as follows:

    10-8 (at fair odds of 14/1)
    10-4 (16/1)
    10-9 (21/1)
    8-10 (21/1)
    8-4 (76/1)
    8-9 (101/1)

    Next, let’s move on to Parx Racing where a couple of $1 million purses are up for grabs (yes, you read that right).

    (Click on image to enlarge)

    We’ll start with what might be the most anticipated event of the day — the Grade I Cotillion Stakes.

    Since it drew only four entrants, let’s take a look at each one:
    (Click on image to enlarge)

    COMMENTS: The maiden win was impressive, but the subsequent route efforts have been just so-so. James Toner trainee is likely to offer some value, but I have a hard time picturing her in the winner’s circle barring major improvement.

    (Click on image to enlarge)

    COMMENTS: What makes Questing especially tough is that, although she certainly runs fast early, she runs even faster — relatively speaking — late, as evidenced by the fact that she’s recorded three consecutive positive pace profiles (see the “Profile” column above). Add to that a field of rivals without much early zip and it’s easy to understand why Questing is 1/1 on the morning line.

    (Click on image to enlarge)

    COMMENTS: On the plus side, this undefeated daughter of Smart Strike tops my Win Factor ratings. On the negative side, My Miss Aurelia and jockey Corey Nakatani will need to take matters into their own hands — early — if they are to have any chance of springing the minor upset. The nice thing is Steve Asmussen’s stable star does have the early foot to put pressure on Questing, the question is: do the horse, and the connections, have the will?



    (Click on image to enlarge)
    COMMENTS: Her one race on dirt produced speed and pace figures that simply aren’t good enough to win this. Yeah, maybe if Questing and My Miss Aurelia fight tooth-and-nail for the lead, Dixie Strike stands a shot, but I don’t see that happening.

    In the 10th race at Parx, the Grade II Pennsylvania Derby, it looks like Alpha is going to get yet another soft pace to close into. I’d take anything over 7-5 faster than you can say “Acclamation.” I’d look for value in the exacta, using 7-Csaba and 8-Macho Macho underneath at fair odds of 12-1 on both combinations.
    (Click on image to enlarge)

  • Insider Overlay Underlays

    POSTED Jun 28, 2012 By Derek Simon
    Although I often talk… and talk… and talk some more about the importance of overlays to one’s betting bottom line, there are instances when underlays — or at least perceived underlays — can be excellent wagers. Take, for example, the 10th race at Los Alamitos on Sunday, July 18, 2010.

    Among the entrants in that $10,000 maiden claiming event for quarter horses going 300 yards, was Ar Firestorm, a two-year-old gelding that had finished dead last, beaten 4 ¾ lengths (the equivalent of about 21 lengths at six furlongs), in his only start. Yet, despite being dismissed at 8-1 on the morning line, Ar Firestorm was heavily supported throughout the wagering, dipping to 3-1 in the final minutes before a rash of late money on the favorite drove his odds up to 9-2 by the time the gates sprung.

    Copyrighted ©2010 by Daily Racing Form, LLC and Equibase Co.
    Reprinted with permission of the copyright owner.
    (Click on image to enlarge)


    Now, years ago, handicapping author and professional gambler Barry Meadow thoroughly debunked the notion of “smart” money — at least as it relates to horses that are bet below their morning line odds. However, even Meadow left the door open for what he termed “mystery money,” or horses “getting hammered for no discernible reason,” which certainly appeared to be the case with Ar Firestorm.

    True, the gelding was dropping from a straight maiden affair to a maiden claiming event, arguably the biggest and most meaningful class drop in all of racing, but outside of that, there wasn’t much to like about the son of Red Fire, was there? 

    Well, on the surface, no, but remember: beauty is only skin deep. If one had taken the time to look beyond the obvious, three things about Ar Firestorm practically leapt off the pages of the past performances:
    1)  He was reasonably well backed (9-1) in his career debut, despite the fact that he faced superior competition that day.
    2)  Eduardo Nicasio was tabbed to ride the youngster. Prior to July 18, 2010, Nicasio had won with four of his five previous mounts for trainer Hector Hernandez. As Adam Sandler might say, “not too shabby.”
    3)  Hernandez was wheeling Ar Firestorm back to the races in just seven days (see above) — a clear indication that he felt the gelding was fit and ready to fire his best shot.
    So, as much as I beat the drum for overlay betting, I must admit, in cases like this, I love to see the horse I’m considering get some respect at the windows, as it suggests that the connections or other “insiders” are putting their money where their mouths are.

    Needless to say, despite breaking slowly for the second time in a row, Ar Firestorm closed with a rush and won impressively, returning $11.40.

    Big Races on the Prairie

    A trio of Grade III stakes races highlights a fantastic card at Prairie Meadows on Saturday. Here’s a look at each one:
    (Click on image to enlarge)
    COMMENTS: Traditionally, Prairie Meadows has been kind to early runners and, in this event, the quickest of the quick appears to be TAPAJO, who is coming off a win in the Panthers Stakes. In that race, Tapajo rated on a brisk pace (-10 early speed ration) and pulled away late to score by 6 ¼ lengths and earn a 92 Brisnet speed figure (today’s par is 97). Her latest work — a slow :51-1/5 for four furlongs — is a bit troubling, but the daughter of Tapit looks like the one to catch if ready. 

    Although ICE CREAM SILENCE beat just two rivals in her latest, including LIVI MAKENZIE who is also in this field, she did it with authority, earning an 89 BSF and -3 late speed ration.

    UPTOWN BERTIE ran great in her latest and would be a huge threat if she can duplicate that effort.

    BET(S): WIN on 3-Tapajo at odds of 5-2 or greater.

    (Click on image to enlarge)
    COMMENTS: Not surprisingly, HANSEN looks dominant in this spot. To begin with, he is the only Grade I winner in the field and he exits the Kentucky Derby, an event that earned a 13.3 Key Race Rating (the Prairie Meadows Mile, which featured both ALSVID and TRUETAP, has the next-highest KRR at 5.3). What’s more, Hansen figures to dictate the pace.

    Frankly, the only betting option in this race is the aforementioned Alsvid, who I would suggest playing to place — just in case there is a negative place pool (likely; there is no show betting) and Hansen finishes out of the top two (unlikely).

    BET(S): PLACE on 2-Alsvid.

    (Click on image to enlarge)
    COMMENTS: Trainer Charles Lopresti has said that he thinks SUCCESSFUL DAN is better than his other stable star, Wise Dan (winner of the Ben Ali and a close second in the Stephen Foster), and, according to my pace figures and the Brisnet speed figures, Lopresti may be right. That said, I’m intrigued by SHADOWBDANCING, who has won five of 11 starts at Prairie Meadows.

    BET(S): WIN on 2-Shadowbdancing at odds of 8-1 or greater.

    (Click on image to enlarge)
    (Click on image to enlarge)

    Derek Simon’s Free Selection Statistics

    Races (Selections): 32 (33)       
    Wins: 8
    Rate: 25.0%     
    Return: $39.90  
    ROI: -39.55%    

    (This year's published selections through 6/28/2012)