Showing posts with label show. Show all posts
Showing posts with label show. Show all posts

  • Cotolo’s Harness Review, News And Notes

    POSTED Sep 7, 2014 By Frank Cotolo
    The weekend began on Friday, Sept 6 with a lightning storm so intense that Mohawk cancelled its program. With it went the eliminations for the William Wellwood. Those two events were raced on Saturday as non-betting events. The “Wellwood” goes next week.

    Yes, the harness blog for TwinSpires is still at this location. Make a note that the TwinSpires harness blogs are moving to a new address—the official TwinSpires website; we missed our Sept. 4 deadline, as technical glitches are being worked out. Soon the move will been established. We will guide you to the page from this residence and our personal pages on Twitter and Facebook.

    The Breeders Crown Countdown blog will stay at its current location and we will be linking to it for coverage of races connected to “Crown” eligibles leading to the championship events in November. Don’t miss one episode and look for archived race reviews at the Hambletonian Society site.

    This week’s “Countdown” races were at Mohawk for frosh and soph, colt and filly pacers. We had one winner there with The Show Returns ($4.90, $3.30, $2.40), a second with Winds Of Change ($5.80, $3.60; Exacta $14.50), and a third with Shes A Hot Mess ($2.80).

    It was a big sires stakes finals weekend and our best results came from Northfield, which we displayed as part of the horses-to-watch list (H2W). Of the eight Ohio Sires Stakes finals we nailed four, including, from high price to low (see below for exact pay outs), Honey B, Lofty Chip, Friskie Til Dawn and Crown Time Keeper.

    We only had a single winner at Hoosier Park’s state-bred parade of finals, with Always B Miki ($2.40, $2.10, $2.10 ok). We were second with Andi’s Alana ($2.20, $2.10) and third with Golden Big Stick ($3.20).

    We were off the board with the Pocono state-breds on Saturday. On Sunday at Philadelphia we had Father Patrick ($2.40, $2.10, n/s) and second with Limelight Beach ($2.80 n/s Exacta $8.60).

    TwinSpires and Hoosier continue a three-pronged power-packed program for harness players. Tuesdays, wager all you want and earn 10 TSC Elite Points per dollar bet. Click here for details. Every Thursday night, there is a 20-percent bonus on hitting the Pick 4 starting at Race 3. Click here for details. And the ongoing 10-percent Pick-4 bonus every racing night on Pick-4 hits continues through the meet. Click here for details.

    In between published harness blogs, follow @FrankCotolo and @TwinSpires on Twitter to get tips on Hoosier contenders you can use in your tickets. Other possibilities appear in exclusive H2W list.

    H2W RESULTS

    The H2W results list across-the-board prices. Also, exactas are included when a H2W horse finishing first or second completes the result with a race favorite or another H2W horse listed in the same race (an asterisk appears when both horses were listed to complete the exacta). This week, there were 49 active horses on the H2W list.

    Winners

    Honey B, $53.40, $16.20, $7.80, Northfield
    Lofty Chip, $15.60, $6.80, $3.80, Northfield
    Friskie Til Dawn, $12. $4.80, $2.80, Northfield
    Tempster Hanover, $9.40, $5, $4, Scioto
    Lawgiver Hanover, $5.50, $2.20, $2.70 ok, Yonkers
    Winmando, $5, $2.40, $2.20, Ocean
    Whowhohoosier, $4.80, $4.20, $3.40, Scioto
    Crafty Time Keeper, $4.40, $2.20, $2.10, Northfield
    Jetting Around, $2.80, $2.20, $2.10, Maywood

    Seconds

    Emilene’s Future, $6.80, Northfield
    Pro Deuce, $6.40, $4.60, Scioto
    Impersonal, $5, $3.80 (Exacta $13.80), Maywood
    Gallie Bythe Beach, $4.60, $3.20 (Exacta $16.40), Philadelphia
    Delightful Dot, $4, $3.40 (Exacta $21.40), Maywood
    Painting The Town, $2.80, $2.80 ok, Plainridge
    Student Of Life, $2.80, n/s, Northfield
    Peter Pumpkineater, $2.70, $2.20 (Exacta $12.20), Batavia

    Thirds

    Ten Yard Penalty, $6, Tioga
    Donald Himself, $5.20, Maywood
    Money Paige, $4.40, Ocean
    Incredible Dragon, $4.20, Meadows
    Mr Thomson, $3.80, Freehold
    Fancy Pants Sandy, $3.20, Freehold
    Big Jer, $2.90, Yonkers
    Canbec Jewell Charlie, $2.50, Vernon
    Dellou, $2.20, Northfield
    Can’tcutthatchip, n/s, Scioto

    News & Notes

    Scioto Downs is still one outpost for our exclusive H2W but the track’s seventh decade in 2010 was a grim shadow of the once lucrative Ohio track. GM of racing Stacy Cahill had said there may be no choice but to close. But by June, 2012 after a racetrack-casino law was passed, Scioto became Ohio’s first “racino.” Cahill said the change met its promise and horsemen are happy. After dropping to $2.39 million in total purses in 2010, Scioto offered $9.89 million in purses during 2014 which more than doubled the $4.73 million at the track in 2012. Before this past weekend’s program, Scioto offered total purses of $11.71 million through 78 programs.

    Midwest champion trainer Virgil Morgan, Jr. said Scioto is the best it has been. He has stayed, along with other popular horsemen, including Ronnie Wrenn, Jr., Josh Sutton and Aaron Merriman. “The money is unbelievable,” Merriman told the Cleveland Plain Dealer “[Many horsemen] ot racing for [good] money for so long, everybody wants it so bad now. And the horses are so much better.” There are purses and full fields, many with 10 horses. Scioto horses will continue to be monitored and will stay on the H2W list because the racing is great and TwinSpires bettors deserve the best competition possible when playing.

    When Yonkers Raceway hosts the 25th edition of the New York Night of Champions on Sept. 13, with $1.8 million in purses (eight sire stakes finals for two- and three-year-olds at $225,000 each, the track will offer a $10,000 guaranteed Pick 5 pool. The 50-cent wager includes races 5 through 9. As per existing Pick 5 rules, should no one select all five winners, the entire pool (minus takeout) would carry over to the Sept. 15 card.

    The next big thing in harness for the season is the Little Brown Jug and the TwinSpires harness social network will be in session all week, from Sept. 14 through “Jug” day, Sept. 18. Look for suggested contenders for many of the great stakes events the Delaware, Ohio meet offers. The track publicity department ranks Mcwicked as the number-one contender, followed by He’s Watching, Somewhere in LA, Sometimes Said, Lyonssomewhere, Limelight Beach, At Press Time, Cammikey, On Golden Ponder and Beat The Drum. Seven of those are Ontario-trained colts. We are keeping a close eye on Limelight Beach’s preps before the Ohio heats. With a new home in the Ron Burke barn and Burke feeling this one is his shot for a Jug, the price may be right, especially against the popular Mcwicked, who doesn’t always live up to his one-dimensional penchant for speed.

    Continuing our scan on drivers with streaks, we make note that Dave Palone’s seven-win program at the Meadows on Sept. 4 tossed a profit of $10. However, one horse made that possible, an $11.20 winner in Race 6. The next highest price paid by a Palone winner was $7 and the lowest was $2.20. As well, some of his losers in the other seven races in which he participated were big favorites. Palone continues to be a great driver, of course, but he is not a flat-bet profit regardless of his humungous number of career wins.

    Extraordinary Extras

    Indulge in many standardbred topics at my Hoof Beats blog titled Vast Performances.

    Ray Cotolo contributed to this blog

    Cartoons by Thom Pye ~ For more Thom Pye cartoon, informative harness history and products, click here ~

  • Cotolo’s Harness Review, News And Notes

    POSTED Feb 23, 2014 By Frank Cotolo

    First there was too much snow and then there was too much water, which was the snow before it melted. Mother Nature is certainly more consistent than a lot of racehorses. So it was this week as higher temperatures dissolved mountains of snow and ice in many U.S. states, provoking bad conditions on the tracks that were, a week before, frozen.

    Cancellations before and during race programs nixed a few schedules. Buffalo Raceway’s TwinSpires bonus Pick 4 was cancelled on Feb. 19 when the surface became unsafe. Every Wednesday night, weather permitting of course, TwinSpires’ 10-percent-bonus Buffalo Raceway 50-cent Pick 4 wagers continue. We assist with suggestions for your ticket via Twitter -- @FrankCotolo, @TwinSpires and @BuffaloRaceway.

    Other schedules affected included the Meadows and Yonkers. All horses we are watching that were to participate in the various programs cancelled, will appear in next week’s watch (H2W) list. Check below for the wins, places and shows that did materialize last week.

    Our overnight features’ choices included two winners but not on top, as the huge favorite (our second betting choice) Keep The Dream ($3.10, $2.20, $2.10) won the Miss Valentine Final at Fraser over our upset choice, Yanotherhos. Our other Fraser choice, Red Star Tyson raced horribly, finishing ninth of nine at 11-1.

    Feb. 23 at Dover on Race 3 our second choice, Steady Pulse, won ($4, $2.40, $2.10), and our first choice, JR’s Midnight Cry, scratched, leaving us with the favorite. Our first choice in Race 2, Occasionally Bad, was never a threat, finishing eighth at 13-1. The second contender for us in that race finished second—RD Elegant Yankee ($3.60, $2.60).

    H2W RESULTS

    The H2W results list across-the-board prices. Also, exactas are included when a H2W horse finishing first or second completes the result with a race favorite or another H2W horse listed in the same race (an asterisk appears when both horses were listed to complete the exacta). Failed choices from our previous week’s overnight features appear for the second time in the H2W list. 

    Winners

    That’s My Girl, $24.60, $6.40, $4.40 (Exacta $56.20), Miami Valley
    Ringside Winner, $13.20, $6.20, $4.80, Freehold
    Ideal In Vegas, $6.90, $4, $3.10, Yonkers
    Dora Des Rivieres, $5.80, $3.20, $2.60, Miami Valley
    Rare Beauty, $5, $4.20, $3, Cal Expo
    Itsabouttonight, $3.40, $2.80, $2.40, Cal Expo
    All Star Dragon, $3, $2.40, $2.10, Yonkers

    Seconds

    Late For Work, $11.80, $9.40, Miami Valley
    Screen Saver, $11.10, $6.60, Meadows
    Eddie Sweat, $7.80, $4, Meadows
    Bad Angel, $7.40, $4.30, Miami Valley
    Cash Poor, $7, $3.90 (Exacta $26.20)
    Last Luck, $6.90, $7.80 (ok), Fraser
    All On My Own, $6.80, $5.40, Freehold
    Luna Hanover, $3.60, $2.40, Miami Valley

    Thirds

    Stiletosilverheels, $4.80, Cal Expo
    Sparticus Jim, $4.60, Flamboro
    Juntique, $4.40, Miami Valley
    B Good Lexi, $3.60, Miami Valley
    Mr Salming, $3.20, Freehold
    TT Tucker, $2.60, Meadows

    News And Notes

    As we go to press, the United States Harness Writers Association (USHWA) held its annual awards dinner at Dover Downs. Most of the divisional winners have already been announced and a few categories were held for the evening’s ceremony. These were not, however, surprises. We congratulate the connections to all of the winners, including Horse of the Year, Bee A Magician, and our choice for the top horse in 2013, Captaintreacherous, who won Pacer of the Year. Both of these horses have a history with this blog that goes deeper than public opinion. Bee A Magician is a filly trotter we supported before anyone in the business or sport gave her the respect she deserved, going back to her frosh year. Captaintreacherous was heralded here early this year when he began his soph campaign and we stuck with him as many journalists knocked him regardless of his stunning performances.

    World Champion trotter Guccio, a winner of $1,021,809, has been retired to stud in Indiana. Trained by Jimmy Takter, Guccio became one of the top contenders of his generation as a three-year-old and missed winning the $1.5 million Hambletonian by a neck. At 4 he trotted to his personal best of 1:51.1f, a World Record for four-year-old trotters.

    Takter said, “It was our plan to race in Europe in 2014 had this opportunity for him to enter the stud not developed. Indiana clearly has one of the most attractive regional programs and we do plan to breed to Guccio as I believe he has every quality to become an outstanding trotting sire.”

    Horse racing in British Columbia has been saved for at least five years now that a new deal has been negotiated. “The major component of this for us is the five-year deal. We’ve been told we have government backing for five years. We have race dates for five years,” said Jackson Whittup of Harness Racing BC. The new deal assures racing at the two tracks in the province, Fraser Downs (harness) and Hastings Park (runners). Both tracks are owned by Great Canadian Gaming Corporation, which also owns Flamboro and Georgian Downs in Ontario. The agreement will see 71 race dates at Fraser this year but that number will be reduced throughout the life of the deal. To read the full story in the Cloverdale Reporter, please click here.

    Extraordinary Extras

    Indulge in many standardbred topics at my Hoof Beats blog titled Vast Performances.

    Ray Cotolo contributed to this blog

    Cartoons by Thom Pye

  • The parlay savant

    POSTED Jul 19, 2013 By Unknown
    He did it again.

    Just ten days after turning $16 into $1,000 in Let 8 Ride, Ryan Yokoyama turned $10 into $1,551 in TwinSpires.com's Summer Showdown promotion by going eight-for-eight on $10 show bets Thursday at Del Mar. Also scoring a perfecto for his show wagering was "TPB", whose octet paid $65 in show winnings plus $1,500 from Summer Showdown.

    There were six players live going into the last race on Thursday. Yokoyama chose eventual winner Te Rapa as his show play while "TPB" went with favored Tamarack Smarty, who just did surge past pacesetter Beachcombing to nab third and an extra $1,514 for "TBP."

    "I give more preference to stalkers/pressers in the show contest unless I feel a speed horse will get a favorable scenario and/or has the best numbers," Yokoyama said of his Summer Showdown strategy.

     The first race was the biggest score for Yokomama, as 5.2-to-1 Minds Eyes paid $5 to show. "TPB" had 5.8-to-1 winner Tasty Treat in that race for a $5.20 show payoff, but his biggest score was in race 5 when 10-to-1 Plus One finished second and paid $5.40 to show.

     "I really don't have a secret," Yokomama said. "I love playing the contests, so they get a little more attention. I'm looking forward to the VIP contest [on Saturday]."

     The jackpot for Thursday's card was $3,000 instead of $1,500 because nobody successfully navigated Wednesday's (opening day's) ten-race sequence. If no one is perfect, then that day's $1,500 carries over to the next day. I.e., if no one had showed 8 on Thursday, then today's pot would have been $4,500. Instead, it's $1,500 for the eight-race card that begins at 7 p.m. EDT, 4p PT.

    The only day the perfection provision is not in place is on Sundays when those who last the longest split the pot. The action remains at one track each week, so the contest is at Del Mar through Sunday before shifting to Saratoga on Wednesday, July 24.

  • Show me the carryovers!

    POSTED Jul 18, 2013 By Unknown
    The first of 34 Summer Showdown days is in the books, and nobody picked 10 (or 9 or 8) on the opening day program at Del Mar, which means there's $3,000 up for grabs today--$1,500 from Wednesday plus the guaranteed $1,500 every day.

     If you played yesterday don't get discouraged; today's task is easier since there is only eight races on the card. If you can pick a horse to show 50% of the time, then that 20% reduction in races makes you about four times more likely to sweep the card! We've doubled the money available, and your'e four times more likely to win it. Can't beat that! If you didn't play yesterday, then today is a great day to jump in because of the extra money.

     The other good news for those taking a run, is you won't have my pitiful show selections around to gum up your game. I was out after the first race yesterday, and only three of my ten picks managed to hit the board.

     However, even though my handicapping did not produce winners show horses, I stand behind the strategy because those who did connect early were playing with house money the rest of the day by virtue of all three show payoffs in the first race being more than $4. I.e., Any winning $10 show bet returned more than $20, so even after placing another $10 bet on race two, you were up on the day for that particular wager.

     Even better is that the average show price among the 30 horses to hit the board on the program was $4.60, and only one race (the second) did not include a horse who paid at least $4 to show. With judicious handicapping and selection, your show bets can make Summer Showdown a freeroll for $1,500 (or more!) every day through September 1!

     Of all the players who placed a $10 show wager on the first race, Richard L. lasted the longest with seven consecutive winning plays before dropping race 8 (a race that also tripped me up). If he makes it that far today AND nails that elusive eighth race then he'll win or share the $3,000.

     My focus today is on a carryover I am eligible for: the $12,903 carryover in the Pick 5 at Arlington International Racecourse. A pair of third choices on the morning lines are the key for me as single "A" picks: #1 Pranksterbdancing in Race 6 (leg 2) and #7 Tornadito in race 7 (leg 3).

     Pranksterbdancing looks to have a big pace edge on the field of lower level claimers and the opportunity to beat the logical 7-to-5 and 2-to-1 morning line choices could really boost the Pick 5 payout. Tornadito drops in and cuts back off a speed and fade job from an outside post in his debut.

  • Summer Showdown strategy: the longer you go the easier it gets

    POSTED Jul 17, 2013 By Unknown
    We've
    Been
    Through
    This
    Before:

     Winning one show bet is easy (or at least it's the easiest bet to hit). Stringing them together is not.
    But such is the task that awaits TwinSpires.com players looking to stake their claim at the $50,000 up for grabs in the Summer Showdown promotion that starts today with race 1 at Del Mar Thoroughbred Club.

     To win (or share) in each day's $1,500 prize, all you have to do is make a winning $10 show bet on every race of the card at the designated track (this week it's Del Mar, next week it'll be Saratoga; for a full schedule, click scheduled & results on this page).

     If nobody picks 8 (or 9 or 10 or 11 or 12) then that day's $1,500 prize carries over into the next day. Each week is its own contest, meaning that Sundays are must-win days. If nobody runs the table during the week then Sunday's prize is $7,500 split among those who run the table or last the longest.

     Each day's contest begins with race 1 at the designated track, and only your first $10 show wager counts, so you can't dutch or buy a race. Also--unlike Let 8 Ride--this is not a parlay contest, so if you advance to the next race be sure to do a $10 show bet on your selection before placing any other bets (i.e., you may want to parlay, and you can--just split your bets. E.g., you bet $10 to show on a horse who hits the board and pays $3.60 to show. If you want to "let it ride" by betting $18 on the next race first bet $10 to show then $8 to show).

     The title of this post alludes to my strategy if I were able to compete for the $50,000 in prizes. There are two considerations when making a wager: The likelihood of something happening, and the price you get if it does.

     Without the $1,500 (or more!) carrot each day, anyone wishing to bet $10 to show should do so on the horse s/he feels offers the best value in that pool, but adding a bonus for sweeping the card changes that dynamic somewhat.

     The balance is that you are making live bets, so after your first bet you're -$10. If that initial bet pays $4 then you're +$10 and it's now "free" to play the rest of the day. If you cash two $3 payoffs then race 3 on is free, etc. For that reason, unless there is an absolute lock in the first couple-few races, I'm still betting the value, but once you're in a spot where you're up $10, going for the $1,500 (or more!) is more important than cashing value.

     That's another riff on my Players Pool conundrum post from a few weeks ago: winning underlay or losing overlay. If you've hit nine show bets in a row today at Del Mar, I would hope you put your $10 on the horse most likely to hit the board--even if the value is terrible because the value for you isn't collecting that $2.20 payoff when it should be $3.00, but it's in hitting the $1,500 bonus.

     Some have asked how I would play today's races. I'm not eligible for any additional prizes, but there's nothing wrong with hitting some $10 show bets, so I gave it a go. Below is my ABC grid for opening day at Del Mar plus an extra column labeled "SHOW" that indicates the horse I would use on day 1 of the $50k Summer Showdown.

  • TwinSpires player turns $20 to show on Orb into $6,705.67 pay day

    POSTED Jun 19, 2013 By Unknown
    For those who thought (as I did) that Orb was the most likely winner of the Belmont Stakes, nearly even money (19-to-20, paying $3.90) to show on the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands winner in the third jewel of American Thoroughbred racing's Triple Crown must have seemed like great value.

     Indeed, ChungMing Hui of New York thought Orb gave him the best chance not only to cash a show bet but also win his share of the $10,000 TwinSpires.com put up as part of its Triple Crown SHOWdown competition. Each correct $20 show bet on 17 prep races plus each classic was worth 1 share. Those who swept the Triple Crown split the $10,000 based on the number of shares they had.

     Hui went into the Belmont as one of 14 people still eligible for a share of the $10,000. Those 14 players had 70 shares between them, with five shares already to Hui's credit, meaning a sixth share in the Belmont would have been worth a minimum of $714.28 to him even if the other 13 players were all right as well.

     But a funny thing happened considering the Derby and Preakness winners both hit the tri: Only two of the 14 people hit the Belmont. Most picked Revolutionary, two picked Orb, and nobody picked either winner Palace Malice or runner-up Oxbow.

     The top three finishers in the Belmont Stakes had more than 50% of the show pool among them, but only 14.3% of TwinSpires.com SHOWdown players survived. It lifted Hui's payout from a minimum $753.28 (including the $39 for his show bet) to $6,705.67.

    I talked in this blog about the strategy going into the last race: better to go for the surer thing and cash for less or go for the home run. As it turned out, betting the favorite was a bonanza, but it's not as if most people were going for gusto on horses like Frac Daddy. Indeed, the most popular pick to show was second choice Revolutionary. It makes sense given the running style that even if you thought he wouldn't win, he'd be closing. He never fired, though, and the TwinSpires.com SHOWdown dreams of many players went up in smoke.

     So there was no $1-million winner again this year, but that two players won thousands of dollars on a 3-race show parlay is still pretty cool.

  • Turning $20 to show into $10,000

    POSTED May 28, 2013 By Unknown
    We're still 11 days out, but the Belmont Stakes (click for FREE Brisnet.com Ultimate PPs of possible entrants) is shaping up to be a fantastic race as part of an always-fascinating card at Belmont Park.

     Many of us (including the TwinSpires.com Players Pool) will attempt to conquer the $1-million guaranteed Pick 6 and/or Pick 4 pools or any number of wagering opportunities on this day of more than $90-million in handle, but for 14 players on TwinSpires.com, a $20 show wager could be the most lucrative bet of the day.

     The potential bonanza comes by way of being the only people to survive similar $20 show bets on both the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands and the Preakness Stakes. Whomever makes a successful bet on the Belmont Stakes will split a $10,000 prize pool based on how many $20 show wagers were hit throughout the Kentucky Derby prep & Triple Crown seasons.

     Of the 1,253 who made qualifying show bets on the Derby, 344 (27.4%) advanced to the Preakness where Orb's fourth-place contributed to thinning the field by another 96% to the 14 are are still alive

    Those 14 surviving players have earned 70 shares total, meaning each share is worth a minimum of $119.04 if everyone hits the Belmont. Shares earned range from two (7 players) to ten (three players), so the minimum bonus is $357.12 to those with a pair of shares and $1309.44 to those with ten. Of course, if only one person survives then s/he would win the whole $10,000 regardless of how many shares s/he had going into the Belmont.

     The range of possibilities makes it an interesting study in gamesmanship. Picking the most likely horse to hit the board may yield a small show payoff ($2.60-$3), but a guaranteed $357.12 bonus is like getting back $38-$39, and that kind of scratch can be tough to turn down even in the face of going for thousands of dollars--because when it comes to betting longshots to show, you're at the mercy of who finishes in the other two positions.

    Getting cute and being right with a horse like Giant Finish won't matter much if Revolutionary and Orb complete the tri, so if you're going to take a big swing you want to make sure you'll be rewarded for it. 

    Kathy Brady already knows she's going for Revolutionary in the Belmont. That was her pick in the Derby, and his third-place finish advanced her to the Preakness where Mylute advanced her to the Belmont.

    "The Withers to me was the most impressive prep race, so I thought Revolutionary could win [the Derby] so I picked him to show," said Barker, who currently has seven shares and would collect a minimum of $952.32 with a successful Belmont bet. "In the Preakness I thought Orb would win, but his odds were terrible, so I thought Mylute could be possible for second or third. Oxbow was not in my thoughts to win. I won nothing but my Mylute show bet.

    "I don't know if post position matters that much in the Belmont, but I think Castellano back on Revolutionary can make a difference, so I will have him back as my show bet."

    Pete Ballard is one of three people with ten shares, and like Brady, Ballard has advanced through the Triple Crown season by using Revolutionary and Mylute. Unlike Brady, however, Ballard is unsure who his Belmont pick will be. As a devoted user of the Brisnet.com MultiCAPS files, Ballard likes to crunch the numbers before making picks.

    "I am a software developer, and I use the MultiCAPS data files to do my analysis," Ballard said. "I use four main factors that I key off of, but I still look at other variables that I learned from Brisnet.com newsletter/tutorials--things like pace, race shapes, value, and finding the 'horse for the course.'

    "As far as the Belmont is concerned, can Orb come back and be a legit favorite this time or is he regressing now? Can Mylute improve at this distance? How does Revolutionary look after a 4 week rest and does it have the pedigree for this distance? There are several other horses in the Belmont that I like besides these three. I need to look deeper ... before I can make a decision."

    It's easy to understand the desire to explore all angles when as much as $10,000 is on the line for something as seemingly simple as a $20 show bet.


    For those out of the Showdown promotion (or those never in it, anyway), all TwinSpires.com players will have a chance at an extra $10,000 courtesy the Belmont Pick 4 bonus. All those who hit the all-stakes Pick 4 ending with the Belmont Stakes will share in a separate $10,000 prize pool.

  • 23 races and we'll make a big fuss

    POSTED Feb 21, 2012 By Unknown
    The TwinSpires.com Triple Crown Showdown is your classic game in which a simple task is made harder by repetition.

    Successfully pick one horse to show and maybe double your money; successfully pick 23 to show and win $1-million.

    Succeeding at picking a horse to show is the easiest bet to cash in horse racing. There are instances in which a horse has a 95% chance of finishing third or better. What adds to the challenge of the Triple Crown Showdown is that you don't get to pick your spots.

    Still, it's reasonable to expect that a good handicapper studying typically formful races (even if longshots have prevailed on the Derby Trail in the win spot the past two years, favorites don't necessarily tank) can successfully pick a horse to show at least 50% of the time.

    That $1-million prize might not seem like a lot for 23 consecutive even money horses, and at first blush the odds play that out. The chance that something with a 50% chance of happening (i.e. an even money shot) will happen 23 consecutive times is 8,388,607-to-1. Meaning a $20 show parlay across 23 races with each successful wager paying $4 would theoretically return $167-million, but you could never win that much money in the pari-mutuel system because by the time you got to through a dozen races you'd be creating minus show pools. Suddenly your $4 return comes back $2.10 or $2.20 depending on the state (e.g., Arkansas has a minimum payout of $2.20).

    And the better the prices you get early, the quicker you get to that diminishing returns threshold. If you somehow managed to find horses who paid $6 to show, you'd be creating minus pools by the eighth race in the sequence. This introduces an interesting dichotomy: So long as you're alive for the $1-million prize, the correct play is to take the horse most likely to hit the board, even if that horse offers the worst value to show in that particular race. Ultimately the value is in going for the $1-million, not for cashing 5-to-2 on a horse to show who should have been 2-to-1.

    The Risen Star kicks off the 23-race quest and illustrates the above paradox perfectly. El Padrino is clearly the horse most likely to hit the board, but questions about his ability to handle a fast surface and/or not to bounce off a freakish performance in allowance company while now contesting stakes foes are legitimate ones. He is likely to be an underlay in the win pool and at $2.40 to show doesn't really offer much value there, but survival is the name of the game to win the $1-million, so he's clearly the choice against this bunch to finish third or better.

    Of course, there's still plenty to play for even if you're out of the running for the $1-million, as $10,000 will be up for grabs for those who make at least one successful show wager among the 20 prep races AND sweep the Triple Crown series. So 23 straight winning show bets for $1-million or four winning show bets (including all three Triple Crown races) for a share in a $10,000 prize pool.

    For those wondering, the $1-million is paid out as a 40-year annuity or there is a cash option. Sadly, the winner will not receive a crisp $1-million bill, but if s/he did, we'd probably put Todd Pletcher's face on there.