TwinSpires.com Blog

  • Betting the best can be best value

    POSTED Aug 2, 2011 By Unknown
    I'm not sure if Derek Simon's "Betting Against 'the Best'" post was in direct response to my "Get Pumped Day" paean to all things Frankel & Winter Memories, but regardless, this is in response to him and anyone else who dismisses favorites or top horses as automatic underlays.

    I did not bet Frankel; I did bet Winter Memories. My strategy with the latter was to single in the pick four, but honestly, 11-to-20 to win probably offered more value than any other pool considering there is not a doubt in my mind that Winter Memories wins that race way more than 64.5% of the time; 80% (1-to-4) is probably a better estimate.

    In the long run, betting 11-to-20 shots who should be 1-to-4 has about the same value expectation as betting 6-to-1 shots who should be 9-to-2 with the added benefit of less variance. I realize it's far less glamorous to cash $31 on a $20 bet than $140, and touting to your friends that you were all over that $3.10 winner hardly builds cache, but sometimes the price just makes sense.

    Back to Frankel, who was 4-to-5 (55.5% chance) here in the states and probably should have been no worse than 1-to-2 (a 66.67% chance and 20% overlay from his off odds). Sinking your teeth into that kind of overlay is like betting a fair-value 2-to-1 horse at 5-to-2. Again, it's not glamorous, but neither is betting 6-to-5 on a coin flip, and you'd do that all day long, right?
    • bankroll management
    • Canford Cliffs
    • Ed DeRosa
    • Eddie D.
    • fair value
    • favorites
    • Frankel
    • overlays
    • underlays
    • variance
    • Winter Memories
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Welcome to the TwinSpires Blog. Our contributors will be continually updating posts to offer commentary, insight, advice and expert opinions on horse racing and wagering. The goal is to help you win more and become a better all around horse player.

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Contributors

Derek Simon

TwinSpires' horse racing author, handicapper, and podcast host, Derek Simon of Denver, Colo. offers his insightful, humorous and sometimes controversial take on the horse racing industry. He even publishes the ROI on the picks he gives out.

Frank Cotolo

TwinSpires' harness racing expert, Frank Cotolo follows all of the big North American circuits throughout the year, providing the best value picks and latest news from the sulky.

Ed DeRosa

The Director of Marketing for Bloodstock Research Information Services (BRIS) and a lifelong Thoroughbred racing enthusiast and astute handicapper, Ed joined Churchill Downs Inc. following nine years as a writer and editor with Thoroughbred Times.

Peter Thomas Fornatale

A writer and editor who has been following horse racing for fifteen years. Peter has written books for the Daily Racing Form Press; Crown; and Simon and Schuster; among other publishers, and regular features in The Horseplayer Magazine.

Jill Byrne

A television racing analyst for Churchill Downs, Jill has earned acclaim and a loyal audience throughout Thoroughbred racing.

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