Showing posts with label Graded stakes. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Graded stakes. Show all posts

  • Florida Derby Analysis & Fair Grounds Handicapping Reports

    POSTED Mar 28, 2014 By Derek Simon
    Great weekend of racing on tap! Below is a look at Saturday’s $1 million Florida Derby, along with free handicapping reports for Fair Grounds:

    FLORIDA DERBY (GRADE I)
    3/29/14 Gulfstream Park (race 14)
    1-1/8 miles (dirt).

    1-WILDCAT RED
    Fair Odds: 9-2

    Gutsy win in the Fountain of Youth on Feb. 22, a race in which he battled with General A Rod throughout and prevailed by a head bob. So, the $1 million question is: Was there an early speed bias that day (as so many racing fans and pundits assert)?

    The stats are inconclusive.

    Yes, five of the six dirt races were won by the horse leading at the first call at Gulfstream Park on Feb. 22; however, three of those winners were favored — two quite heavily (even odds and 3-5).

    Still, there’s something else that concerns me about Wildcat Red. We know he’s quick — as a son of D’Wildcat, this is hardly unique — so what’s with the three-furlong drill on March 22? Statistically speaking, this is a huge no-no, particularly in route races (as the table below, culled from one of my databases of past race results, amply demonstrates):


    And don’t be fooled by the fast time of that workout — bullet works at three furlongs produced even worse results than non-bullet works (0.83 IV, 0.74 OBIV).


    2-MATADOR
    Fair Odds: 20-1

    His only win came on the grass and yielded a -13 late speed ration (LSR), which is awful. The blinkers go on today, but it’s hard to get too excited about this guy unless there is a complete pace meltdown.

    3-CAIRO PRINCE
    Fair Odds: 5-2

    The connections are strong, the breeding is strong and this colt hints at greater talent. The only issue I have is the 63-day layoff since his last start in the Holy Bull and the fact that his effort in that race was not as good as it looks on paper.

    Sure, Cairo Prince won that Jan. 25 Grade II affair by 5 ¾ lengths, but the resulting 98 Brisnet speed (BSF) figure and -8 LSR are only so-so.

    Is so-so good enough for a horse that is likely to be favored? I don’t think so.

    4-CONSTITUTION
    Fair Odds: 8-1

    If, in fact, Gulfstream Park featured a main-track early speed bias on Feb. 22, what does that say for this horse, who posted the highest, i.e. slowest, early speed ration (-1) on dirt in wiring the sixth race of the day?

    Granted, the son of Tapit appears to have a lot of upside, but, with Todd Pletcher listed as the trainer, all thoughts of value go down the proverbial drain.

    5-EAST HALL
    Fair Odds: 20-1

    On paper, this gelded son of Graeme Hall looks hopeless, but he’s recorded some LSRs that I think (perhaps foolishly) give him a puncher’s chance if the pace is unduly fast.

    6-GENERAL A ROD
    Fair Odds: 7-2

    Trainer Mike Maker has said this colt represents the “best chance I’ve ever had” to win the Kentucky Derby. Putting aside Maker’s abysmal record in the Run for the Roses for a second, it’s easy to see why the veteran conditioner is so enthusiastic.

    This son of Roman Ruler (I know, that’s a problem) has improved in every start and is as game as they get. Plus, I think he’s better suited to carry his speed than Wildcat Red, whom he dropped a narrow decision to in the Fountain of Youth. Check out the way he galloped out after that race:


    I suspect this guy will get lost in the betting — and he shouldn’t.

    7-ALLSTAR
    Fair Odds: 30-1

    Earned a 78 BSF and -16 LSR in capturing a cheap N1X allowance race at Calder last time. His presence in this race makes me think I should have held my own “pro day” in hopes of making it into the NFL… at the age of 46… with no discernable talent.

    8-SPOT
    Fair Odds: 12-1

    His running style is ideal, but it’s hard for me to get too excited about a closer that earned a -15 LSR in its latest outing. That said, any improvement puts this dude in the hunt.

    Early Speed Ration (ESR): A measurement of a horse’s early energy expenditure in relation to the total race requirements. The lower the figure, the greater the horse’s early exertion in that event.

    -15= Demanding.
    -10= Brisk.
      -5= Moderate.
       0= Soft.

    Late Speed Ration (LSR): A measurement of a horse’s late energy expenditure in relation to the total race requirements. The higher the figure, the greater the horse’s late exertion in that event. Because late speed is calculated at a time when a horse is being asked for his/her maximum effort, LSRs can be a great indication of form as well.

       0= Excellent.
      -5= Good.
    -10= Fair.
    -15= Poor.

    Pace Profile: A simple comparison between a horse’s LSR and the ESR of the race in which it was earned. Positive profiles are greatly desired.

    Note: ESRs and LSRs recorded on turf or all-weather surfaces tend to vary by 5-10 points from those garnered on dirt tracks.

    FREE Fair Grounds Handicapping Reports

    Fair Grounds has a fantastic card scheduled for Saturday, highlighted by the Louisiana Derby and Palace Malice’s return to the bayou in the New Orleans Handicap.

    Below are links to some FREE reports:

    Win Factor Report
    Pace Profile Report

  • Points make the grade, too

    POSTED Jan 31, 2013 By Unknown
    Over on the Twitters, Chris Rossi of @O_Crunk fame is fond of chiding me for sticking up for a Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands qualifying system that now uses points rather than graded stakes earnings to determine the field if more than 20 horses enter.

     Indeed, back in March 2010 I wrote a paean to the graded stakes earnings system that dared anyone to think that a points system could be superior.

     One of the things gambling has taught me is that there's no perfect system. The martingale eventually collapses under the weight of table limits, and "angles" in horse racing (e.g. best last-out figure) eventually lose their edge in a pari-mutuel format.

    And so it goes with Derby qualifying rules, too. The new system isn't perfect but nor was the old system. Lost in all the consternation of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner no longer being guaranteed a spot in the Derby starting gate is that the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies, Juvenile Turf, and Juvenile Fillies Turf winners aren't either.

    That Shanghai Bobby isn't yet guaranteed a spot in the Derby is a big reason why we saw him in the Holy Bull Stakes this past weekend. Do you think Uncle Mo would have run in the Timely Writer Stakes if the points system was in place in 2010-2011?

    Another Breeders' Cup Juvenile comparison people make is to lament that the race is "worth the same as the Delta Jackpot" or "the four-horse Bob Lewis." What they don't acknowledge is that it's also no longer the most important race, as it was when it worth $2-million rather than

    I am not arguing for or against the BC Juvenile being worth 10 points to the winner, but I absolutely do think it's a positive that it and all other Breeders' Cup races are no longer automatic qualifiers and that it's no longer the most valuable race for qualifying purposes. 

    Also lost in the conversation is that spots one through 19 really don't matter. Oh, sure, those higher in the standings might attract more money from casual fans who recognize the names, but in terms of the purpose of the system, a billion points in first is the same as ten points in 19th.

     And 20th only matters if there's a horse in 21st. It's not a given that more than 20 will enter. The wailing and gnashing of teeth four months out about which horses might be left out doesn't seem to reflect the real possibility that no horse will be left out.

    Admittedly when this all began I had my doubts whether the new points system would achieve its stated goal of being more accessible to fans and help build drama on the Road to the Derby, but I'm happy to report that initial returns (albeit based mostly on anecdotal evidence) appear that I was wrong, and that the system is in fact helping drum up more interest not only in the races but also both the horses and competitions involved in the build up.

    Be sure to check out HelloRaceFans.org for updated information on the Road to the Kentucky Derby (and Oaks!), including schedules, standings, etc. And sign up for its Derby Prep Alert e-mail for info on the big races including free Brisnet.com Ultimate Past Performances (PPs) for each race!

  • D'oh-ahan

    POSTED Apr 15, 2012 By Unknown
    One of my strongest opinions this weekend revolved not around who would win a race but who wouldn't, as I was extremely vocal in my disdain in Dullahan being viewed as a top-ranked contender in the Blue Grass Stakes.

    Of course, he showed me as an easy 1 1/4-length winner over champion Hansen with no other horses contending. In retrospect Dullahan certainly made 3.2-to-1 look like a fair price, but more frustrating to me is that I didn't see the Blue Grass as a two-horse race. No matter how many times you run today's Blue Grass, Dullahan wins at least half the time and Hansen wins the balance minus maybe 5% or 10% for the other 13 horses.

    Put another way, the poorest choice I made was not underestimating Dullahan's chances but overestimating other's chances, since it's money spent on them that I wasted. I actually had tickets that included Hero of Order. Granted, those spread tickets also included Dullahan, but even if I preferred Hansen, there was value in taking a stand with only two horses (even if they were the top two choices) in a 13-horse field--especially in the multi-race wagers.

    I went B-A-A-C-A in a $.50 Pick 5 that paid $3,202.65 plus consos, and it was a sequence that I would have connected had a focused on the most likely winners of the Blue Grass rather than my perceived win value.

    It's Monday morning quarterbacking, of course, and there are other races where a staunch single--even on a favorite--makes sense, but I definitely feel after the fact that I should have recognized that even though I preferred Hansen there were really only two horses who could have won the Blue Grass.

    If I'm going to eat crow, I might as well learn something from it, right? The dynamics of multi-race wagering definitely offer the chance to capitalize on win pool underlays who are still likely winners.

    We'll revisit both Grade 1 races with the TCI boys early this week as well as take a look at the graded stakes earnings standings and my expected win odds for Derby contenders. Maybe on video this week I'll wear my Gemologist hat atop a Dullahan shirt although nothing wrong with some TwinSpires threads!
     

  • Will final preps chalk out?

    POSTED Apr 12, 2012 By Unknown
    Although any of the Lexington (4/21 at Keeneland), Jerome (4/21 Aqueduct), or Derby Trial (4/28 at Churchill) Stakes could yield a Kentucky Derby starter in the two weekends between this one and the first Saturday in May, it is more likely that the field will mostly be set following the Blue Grass Stakes and Arkansas Derby on Saturday.

    My prediction is that the bubble horses in danger of being left out of the Kentucky Derby starting gate because of insufficient graded stakes earnings will like the results of the Blue Grass better than the Arkansas Derby since I foresee champion Hansen padding his bankroll in the former with Bodemeister earning enough to get in the gate and knocking someone else out with a win or second-place finish in the latter.

    The TCI boys weigh in on this weekend's action as well as give me a special gift from WinStar's Elliott Walden, who has noticed that I haven't had a lot of love for the farm's Tiznow colt, but at least I have a parting gift if he beats me again.

    In other graded stakes scenarios a la the last weekend of the National Football League season, Isn't He Clever and Optimizer need only third-place finishes to have enough graded stakes earnings, so a Bodemeister, Isn't He Clever, Optimizer tri box with Bodemeister in one of the top two spots is the bubble horses' worst nightmare. I like Secret Circle enough to say that's not the most likely scenario, but it certainly could happen.

    What does Toga Tout thing? Well, he's rooting for Bob Baffert "heart attack and all" and expects the Racing Hall of Fame trainer's two entries to make up at least two third of the trifecta with the aforementioned Bodemeister and Secret Circle. Too bad Oaklawn doesn't offer the ill-fated omni. Toga Tout could crush the Baffert pair.