• Kentucky Derby EXACTA morning line

    POSTED Apr 30, 2012
    Anyone can make a morning line for win odds, but what will the exactas pay (for a dollar)?

    Don't worry, I didn't put as much thought into this as it looks like. I basically took the approach that certain groups of horses are going to be similarly bet and then made tweaks based on running style. E.g., I have Hansen and I'll Have Another as similar price in the win slot of the exacta but favored the latter slightly in the place spot because some might consider Hansen more a win threat based on running style.

    I also didn't take a stand on whether Bodemeister or Union Rags will be favored. It's possible that one could take more money in the win pool but not in exotics. The big question I tried to answer with them is, How low will the chalk-chalk exacta pay? I'm pretty comfortable with the $30-$35 range and went with $30.

    Not surprisingly, I figure Trinniberg to be the longest shot in both the win and exacta pools. With the largest exacta payout of $9,500 projected to occur if he defeats either Prospective or Rousing Sermon in 2nd.

    Speaking of the projected payouts, to make the formula work that spits out the percetage of the pool and odds, I input $9,999 for the combo that would include the same horse in first and second, which of course can't really happen.

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